Will Tiger capture 30+ majors?

[USGolfers]

I think it's started to hail! So, TST has been around since 2007, I think I read? If it's still here when he breaks 30 majors,and the server hasn't crashed and lost all our posts, ya'll can congratulate me then. Meanwhile, I think Tiger has a lot of gas left in his tank so I'm still hopeful. Fortunately my buddy wasn't Rich, as I am, so the bet was inconsequential.

[jamo]

Originally Posted by USGolfers

I think it's started to hail! So, TST has been around since 2007, I think I read? If it's still here when he breaks 30 majors,and the server hasn't crashed and lost all our posts, ya'll can congratulate me then. Meanwhile, I think Tiger has a lot of gas left in his tank so I'm still hopeful. Fortunately my buddy wasn't Rich, as I am, so the bet was inconsequential.

TST has been around since 2004: http://thesandtrap.com/wiki/about-us

Even as a Tiger fan, he won't even come close to 30. I think he'll break Jack's record, and maybe get to 20, but 30 is out of the question. It's not about being "ye of little faith," it's about being realistic.

[just hit it]

Not a chance in hades he breaks 30!  I doubt he breaks Jack's record, he still clould but I doubt it.  I doubt he plays another 10 years, and will never play champions tour.  I am not a Tiger hater, nor am I a big fan, but I think his best golf is behind him.

[franky21]

I don't think he will get thirty majors, with his personal issues and nagging injuries i doubt it. I still believe he can surpass Jack, i have to at least give him the benefit of the doubt considering what he has done in the game of golf.

[iacas]

Originally Posted by max power

Even 3 years ago this would have been a silly bet to make.

Yep. At any point in the past 35 years it would have been a silly bet to make.

USGolfers, please learn to use quoting and, then, multiquoting. ;-) If you do maybe we won't find your friend and remind him of this bet... heh heh.

[USGolfers]

Originally Posted by iacas

Yep. At any point in the past 35 years it would have been a silly bet to make.

USGolfers, please learn to use quoting and, then, multiquoting. ;-) If you do maybe we won't find your friend and remind him of this bet... heh heh.

Point taken - using quotes, I mean - I'm gettin better. Sometime back in the early sixties I remember many folks saying putting a man on the moon was absurd, within 7 years, an impossibility. When someone puts their mind to something, impossibilities often become realities.

[max power]

Putting your mind to science/technology is not the same as trying to win 12 more majors than the greatest golfer.  You have to beat every other golfer, and you'd better believe that Tiger and every other golfer out there are "putting their minds" to winning as many majors as they possibly can.

Originally Posted by USGolfers

Point taken - using quotes, I mean - I'm gettin better. Sometime back in the early sixties I remember many folks saying putting a man on the moon was absurd, within 7 years, an impossibility. When someone puts their mind to something, impossibilities often become realities.

[RichF]

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGolfers

Back in 1999 I made a bet with my friend that Tiger would easily surpass 30 major wins.

What do you think?

I believe he could have a strong competitive game until he's in his mid 50s. But if he can't regain his focus the skeptics may prevail.

Even back in 1999, it's a bet you'd lose every time. You're basically saying the guy's game remains A+ for 20 years straight.

Law of Averages vs Mathematical Prinicple.

Firstly, in his prime years (1997-2002) he won 8 Majors which is 1.33333 Majors per year.

Secondly, in the 2nd great period of his career (2005-2008) he won another 6 Majors which works out at 1.5 Majors per year.

For him to win another 12 Majors when his career is clearly on-the-slide, you're looking at him winning an average of a Major each year until he's around 50 years old.

Furthermore, you have to assume that the rest of the playing field is going to get weaker (which it won't) and his body will hold up at least another 5 years (it won't).

Call your friend, make another bet...and make it sound something like this:

"Hey, I bet you that Tiger Woods will win 2 Majors in the next 5 years...and a further bet is that if he doesn't win 1 in the next 3, he will retire from golf"

[rockinrebel]

No.

[NEOHMark]

Originally Posted by USGolfers

NEOHMark, Now you see why I posted this. I believe he could have a strong competitive game until he's in his mid 50s. But if he can't regain his focus the skeptics may prevail.

If his knees were better, I think he could win at least another 5 or 6 majors.  I think the knees will become more and more of an issue as time goes on - probably limiting his playing time to 'just' the majors and higher-profile tourneys.  I think it'll be kind of akin to Freddie Couples' back situation.  Certainly, Fred remains competitive, but the reality is he hasn't won a PGA Tour event since he was 44 - and only won four times past the age of 35.  Time is not on anyone's side once a fairly serious injury occurs.

Add to that mix some of the strong, younger opponents on the tour now, and I think Tiger has his work cutout to even get to 18 majors.  But who knows?  Vijay won three majors post-40 and has the most wins past the age of 40 (22 I t believe).  But Vijay played a lot of tournaments in that stretch.  Tiger's knees may be the deciding factor in whether or not he can maintain the kind of playing pace required to keep his game sharp and be in the hunt enough times to have a chance to keep winning.  JMHO

[Kieran123]

Originally Posted by NEOHMark

If his knees were better, I think he could win at least another 5 or 6 majors.  I think the knees will become more and more of an issue as time goes on - probably limiting his playing time to 'just' the majors and higher-profile tourneys.  I think it'll be kind of akin to Freddie Couples' back situation.  Certainly, Fred remains competitive, but the reality is he hasn't won a PGA Tour event since he was 44 - and only won four times past the age of 35.  Time is not on anyone's side once a fairly serious injury occurs.

Add to that mix some of the strong, younger opponents on the tour now, and I think Tiger has his work cutout to even get to 18 majors.  But who knows?  Vijay won three majors post-40 and has the most wins past the age of 40 (22 I t believe).  But Vijay played a lot of tournaments in that stretch.  Tiger's knees may be the deciding factor in whether or not he can maintain the kind of playing pace required to keep his game sharp and be in the hunt enough times to have a chance to keep winning.  JMHO

Agreed. And Tiger will not play in the Champions Tour, so who knows how long he will stay on the PGA Tour before he retires. I am sure he thought he would of surpassed Jack by now and could be thinking about retirement in the next few years.

[dbuck]

Either pay your buddy now or come up with a "back nine press" of some sort. Even if he'd kept up the torrid pace of 1999-2002 through 2010, you'd be sitting at about 26-27, and given the current state of affairs, not a shoe in.  Probable, but not a foregone conclusion. But in actuality he was 0-8 for 2003-2004 and 2009-2010. If you look at a "rolling 5", the last years of 2006-2010 he is .20 in the majors, so if he maintains that he would tie Jack by age 40, again better than even chance but not a foregone conclusion given the current state of affairs. When Tiger first rose to dominance, he was unique in many ways. He was one of the first "fitness frieks" (Mr Player not withstanding) of the new generation. Now that is much more common. He was incredibly longer than most everybody. He still has one of the best minds and toughness to make something of nothing, but that is not as sharp as it once was and time is not on his side. In 1999-2002, he was among the fittest players on the tour. When he is 40, he may still be the most fit 40 year old, but not more fit than the 25-30 year old "young guns".  I expect him to win some more tournaments and majors and maybe even some past 40. Regardless of whether he passes Jack or not, he will always be one of the top 5 golfers of all time.

I can see how someone might have made a spur of the moment bet in 1999-2000, but in 2011, Father time, Mother nature, and the numbers are against you.

[sean_miller]

Originally Posted by dbuck

Either pay your buddy now or come up with a "back nine press" of some sort. Even if he'd kept up the torrid pace of 1999-2002 through 2010, you'd be sitting at about 26-27, and given the current state of affairs, not a shoe in.  Probable, but not a foregone conclusion. But in actuality he was 0-8 for 2003-2004 and 2009-2010. If you look at a "rolling 5", the last years of 2006-2010 he is .20 in the majors, so if he maintains that he would tie Jack by age 40, again better than even chance but not a foregone conclusion given the current state of affairs. When Tiger first rose to dominance, he was unique in many ways. He was one of the first "fitness frieks" (Mr Player not withstanding) of the new generation. Now that is much more common. He was incredibly longer than most everybody. He still has one of the best minds and toughness to make something of nothing, but that is not as sharp as it once was and time is not on his side. In 1999-2002, he was among the fittest players on the tour. When he is 40, he may still be the most fit 40 year old, but not more fit than the 25-30 year old "young guns".  I expect him to win some more tournaments and majors and maybe even some past 40. Regardless of whether he passes Jack or not, he will always be one of the top 5 golfers of all time.

I can see how someone might have made a spur of the moment bet in 1999-2000, but in 2011, Father time, Mother nature, and the numbers are against you.

I recall guys like Faldo, Norman, and even lesser players like Bill Glasson, being pretty fit.

Anyway, the OP's bet was like betting in 1982 that Gretzky would break Gordie Howe's all time goals mark - by 1000 goals. It's something a child would say. That he's still suggesting it's possible makes me think he's just trolling now.

[motteler621]

Originally Posted by Kieran123

Agreed. And Tiger will not play in the Champions Tour, so who knows how long he will stay on the PGA Tour before he retires. I am sure he thought he would of surpassed Jack by now and could be thinking about retirement in the next few years.

thinking retirement in the next few years,Tiger, the workaholic. sorry that made laugh a little. What else is he going to do??? He lives off competing against the best

[zeg]

Originally Posted by sean_miller

Anyway, the OP's bet was like betting in 1982 that Gretzky would break Gordie Howe's all time goals mark - by 1000 goals. It's something a child would say. That he's still suggesting it's possible makes me think he's just trolling now.

I dunno, I think he made the bet and is now just asking about it.  It's a little crazy, but I'm all in support of people being bold in their predictions (especially if I can take the safe side of the bet!)

But, no, I would say the chance of him picking up 30 is indistinguishable from zero.  I think he can still get back to being a consistent winner, but I just don't believe his best years are ahead of him, and even repeating his best years from the past wouldn't get him there.  I'll join the chorus---he has a fair chance to tie or break Nicklaus's record, but it's far from certain and certainly won't be by more than 50% of Nicklaus's total.

[tristanhilton85]

I'd agree that he has a good shot at Jack's record and may even be able to touch 20... no way in hell he gets to 30 though.  Just isn't gonna happen.

[Clambake]

Originally Posted by USGolfers

Point taken - using quotes, I mean - I'm gettin better. Sometime back in the early sixties I remember many folks saying putting a man on the moon was absurd, within 7 years, an impossibility. When someone puts their mind to something, impossibilities often become realities.

True, but in that case there was a pulling together of a nation and nearly a million people (who worked on some part of the effort) to make that dream a reality.     In this case there is one person trying to make it happen and about 150 people every single week doing their best to prevent it.

[newtogolf]

I think Tiger will have a tough time reaching 20.  It seems the level of competition is greater now than it was when he dominated, and each of these top players has certain skills that offset Tigers and neutralize advantages he'd have at certain courses.  Guys like Donald, Watney and Kucher are better scorers, Bubba and DJ out drive him, Donald, Snedeker and Stricker out putt him.  His body is showing signs of break down and he's mentally not where he was before his marriage ended.   I don't think his career is over, and I'm pretty certain he will win a few more majors, but I can't see him getting close to 30.