The Big Break "Indian Wells"

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by Kieran123

Sucks to see Petey go. I thought he had serious game compared to the other guys.

His attitude was good too. Confident, and battled pretty hard there.

I feel like the strongest player is now gone from the competition.  It's obviously just a hunch because we've seen Petey in many clutch situations and haven't seen guys like Kent & Will in those situations often.  But he has a really nice swing.  He hit two pretty good 3-irons from 230 yards out when facing elimination & sudden death.  His putter let him down though... twice (although he hit a clutch one to make up for one of them).

Kinda interesting how we see why guys shouldn't purchase the extra half point AND see the first instance of a person purchasing the extra half point and it actually mattering.  I still wouldn't do it.  So far it has only mattered in 1 out of 6 opportunities I believe.

Brandon

[x129]

Kent would have gotten my vote as the strongest player (I can't think of a shot he has really missed) with Petey 2nd. It is hard to evaluate Kent, Carl and Will since we haven't seen them under elimination pressure. Part of that is because they have been playing good golf and are not choking on the immunity challenges. And I am sure I don't give Will enough credit because of his swing.

As far the extra point, you would need a lot more samples (probably ~100) before drawing conclusions.  It is also hard to factor in the mental part of knowing you have a big margin of error (for the buyer) and the pressure of knowing that the best you can do is tie (the low guy) most of the time.  But if there is an auto elimination between the 2 lowest money people, it really does change the math. Before it probably added 15-20% to your chance of surviving elimination and then you could hope to get immunity and avoid the elimination until you could build up some cash. Now the problem is that after surviving if you spent the money, you are likely to be in a 50/50. That is not a good deal at all.  Unless of course you will be the low money man no matter what.

My guesses at the math would be something like

2/3 chance to win with 1/2 stroke. This is obviously a big guess. It might be more like 75 or 80%.

80% with full stroke (You win 2/3s without needing it and 50% with it it)

Now if you buy the stroke and have to do elimination your chance of surviving goes down to about 40% versus the 66% of not buying it and winning the first challenge.

Originally Posted by bplewis24

I feel like the strongest player is now gone from the competition.  It's obviously just a hunch because we've seen Petey in many clutch situations and haven't seen guys like Kent & Will in those situations often.  But he has a really nice swing.  He hit two pretty good 3-irons from 230 yards out when facing elimination & sudden death.  His putter let him down though... twice (although he hit a clutch one to make up for one of them).

Kinda interesting how we see why guys shouldn't purchase the extra half point AND see the first instance of a person purchasing the extra half point and it actually mattering.  I still wouldn't do it.  So far it has only mattered in 1 out of 6 opportunities I believe.

Brandon

[newtogolf]

I think Kent has the best chance of winning.  He's Top 2 in money and appears to have a dependable swing that will work under pressure.  Will has a chance if he can avoid an elimination match until the very end.  His skills are as good as Kent, but I'm not sure he can handle the pressure of an elimination match, especially if it's someone he believes is his equal or better (Kent).

Carl, Shanks and David are good golfers but haven't proven they can hang with Will and Kent head to head.   Carl would be the sleeper because he's so strategic, and cool under pressure.

[Inebriated]

Just started watching this week... Pullin for Robbie just because he's from the Carolina's. GO ROBBIE!

[Awsi Dooger]

Originally Posted by hjimzaf

They should've kept playing golf instead of going to the putt off. Let them play!

Big Break is increasingly dictated by lazy producers. They don't want eliminations that require extra holes to identify a winner, hence the 1/2 shot. They don't want full hole challenges that call for multiple tries before being decided, trudging cameras and crew back to the tee box, hence they lessen the number of actual holes played, and ties are decided by putt off.

Once they brought back someone it was obvious at least one episode would feature multiple eliminations. I posted that on other forums after last week's show. You had 7 players and only 4 episodes remaining. Now it's a workable 5 and 3. Finales have typically featured 2 players but the last all-male Big Break (Disney) had 3 contestants in the final.

Tonight's results seemingly weaken the finale. Petey and John are mini tour players who could threaten Kent over 9 or 18 holes. Hard to see Carl holding up once actual holes are played. I'm skeptical about Will. Shank and David have shown enough game but throw in the oddball shot now and then.

Apropos the players who got scared and bought the 1/2 shot are now up against it. I hope it continues. David can justify buying the 1/2 shot all he wants, but doubtful he'd be in this predicament if he hadn't done it to begin with.

[Mo Co Kid]

Kent should have easy time, Will and Carl don't have the game (unless all future events are from less than 100 yards from the green, they simply can't get close under pressure), I'm guessing they've gotten most of their points from team competition (breaking glass which Kent singlehandedly won?) likely there for diversity.  Love Shank but he's not straight and not as good under pressure as I first thought.  David shows some play under pressue ability.  Likely scenario, the producers will have Will & Carl go head to head, then Kent vs. Will in final. It's all about ratings.  When will there be a fight (verbal or otherwise)?

[shades9323]

Evidently Piri wasn't the strongest player since he has now been eliminated twice.

Originally Posted by bplewis24

I feel like the strongest player is now gone from the competition.  It's obviously just a hunch because we've seen Petey in many clutch situations and haven't seen guys like Kent & Will in those situations often.  But he has a really nice swing.  He hit two pretty good 3-irons from 230 yards out when facing elimination & sudden death.  His putter let him down though... twice (although he hit a clutch one to make up for one of them).

Kinda interesting how we see why guys shouldn't purchase the extra half point AND see the first instance of a person purchasing the extra half point and it actually mattering.  I still wouldn't do it.  So far it has only mattered in 1 out of 6 opportunities I believe.

Brandon

[aschroeger]

Originally Posted by shades9323

Evidently Piri wasn't the strongest player since he has now been eliminated twice.

I don't think the shows format really allows the good players to shine above the lesser players.  Petey being knocked out on the first show is a prime example of that.  Glad he got back on for a short time.

Even I have a chance of beating Michael Jordan in a game of P.I.G.(be it a very small chance :) )

I was hoping for a little more stroke play on the show than than what they are doing currently.  I really wasn't a fan of them hitting over the wall in show 1 or 2... Still a very entertaining show, I enjoy it.

[KillaK]

Originally Posted by Mo Co Kid

Kent should have easy time, Will and Carl don't have the game (unless all future events are from less than 100 yards from the green, they simply can't get close under pressure), I'm guessing they've gotten most of their points from team competition (breaking glass which Kent singlehandedly won?) likely there for diversity.

"likely there for diversity"?  Carl and Will are in the top 3 with Kent? I think you're offbase on that one.  The show goes out of its way to find different types of people on every season - so we have two southern country dudes, two canadians, two current and ex military guys etc.  Will has his unorthodox grip and Carl doesn't have a pretty swing but when it comes down to it most of the competitions have been individual competitions and they have both made their shots when they had to and thats reflected by the fact that they are on the top of the money board.  Kent has a good looking swing and backs that up with good results.  Justin had a good looking swing but he couldn't get his head in the game to perform on every shot and those mistakes cost him.  Piri as well - he his great long irons but was done in by a 15 foot put he left like 6 feet short.

Consistency is a premium in golf and it is the same with the show - you have one or two immunity challenges which usually consist of one or two shots - you have to be on for those shots or you are going into an elimination challenge and can be gone quickly.  I think as the show has played out we see that the more inconsistent golfers - think floyd, norman, oren - ultimately lost out and got eliminated because of that inconsistency.  As I think back I can't think of a bad shot that Will, Kent or Carl have hit thus far.  In this game one mistake and you can be done.

[slabm7]

Petey had a great swing and was great with his irons but you can't miss 2 3ft putts and expect to stick around. Kent is the one to beat. He has some tournament experience and seems to be the most consistent player. I don't think Will can hold up under pressure. It seems that Carl really attacks the ball. Almost like he is punching it all the time, I don't know how well that will hold up going forward. I really like Shank, he has a great attitude and I think he has an outside chance of going to the final 2. But as far as skill goes, Kent is the only one who would have a chance at making a cut in a PGA tour event.

[johnclayton1982]

Quote:

You--or anybody else here--should be free to bash a person based on the merits of their actions if it's called for.  People who fight in Afghanistan can be jerks just as much as the couch potato who plays video games all day in his mom's basement.

Well said.  Many military people I know are worthy of respect.  I have no idea if a particular person is or not, but they do not get respect solely by being in the military.  Also, everyone on this forum seems to assume everyone else is an American, and I think people would be surprised if they knew how many non-Americans (Australia, English) people post of this forum.  Finally, and I may be opening up a can of worms here, I don't see the connection between Afganistan and the "freedom" of the American state.  Surely, Afganistan may be a valid geopolitical goal, but to say the war in Afganistan is to secure our "freedom" is a bit of a stretch.

The segment with the Marine futures of everyone was clearly a joke.  I thought it was funny.

On the subject of Robert, I felt very bad for the guy.  You're talking about the only guy on the show who was a legit Tour player at one point, and who made several PGA Tour cuts in the late 90s and early 00s.  In the book "Tales from Q School", the book talks about his career and that he got his real estate license eventually and stopped playing golf.  I think you have here a situation with guys who play every day and Floyd probably was taking a flyer - which you cannot do in golf.  However, over the course of a career, Robert is by far (and it isn't even close) the most accomplished player on BBIW.

[JoelCochran]

I really thought Petey was going to pull it out.  I think he's shown more heart, character, and skill than anyone else.  But hey, everyone misses putts, he just missed one at the worst time.  Without the extra point advantage John would have gone home.  I really don't like that rule.

The more I see Will the more I dislike him.  It has nothing to do with his swing: the backwards grip is odd and limits his follow through, but that seems to give him more control.  My problem with him is his attitude sucks and he shows it constantly.  Several times now he's thrown his club down after making a good shot which has a very defiant tone.  Too much "in your face" which feels very disrespectful to me.  It's like Crash said to Nuke in Bull Durham: "you don't respect yourself and that's your problem, but you don't respect the game and that's my problem".

At this point Kent will probably win.  I think Carl has just about run his course, Shank or John could possibly beat him but I think it is unlikely.  I don't root against people, but I won't root for Will.

[jetsknicks1]

Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger

Big Break is increasingly dictated by lazy producers. They don't want eliminations that require extra holes to identify a winner, hence the 1/2 shot. They don't want full hole challenges that call for multiple tries before being decided, trudging cameras and crew back to the tee box, hence they lessen the number of actual holes played, and ties are decided by putt off.

Once they brought back someone it was obvious at least one episode would feature multiple eliminations. I posted that on other forums after last week's show. You had 7 players and only 4 episodes remaining. Now it's a workable 5 and 3. Finales have typically featured 2 players but the last all-male Big Break (Disney) had 3 contestants in the final.

Tonight's results seemingly weaken the finale. Petey and John are mini tour players who could threaten Kent over 9 or 18 holes. Hard to see Carl holding up once actual holes are played. I'm skeptical about Will. Shank and David have shown enough game but throw in the oddball shot now and then.

Apropos the players who got scared and bought the 1/2 shot are now up against it. I hope it continues. David can justify buying the 1/2 shot all he wants, but doubtful he'd be in this predicament if he hadn't done it to begin with.

I hate the putt off. They can try to make it look dramatic all they want, but watching two guys trade 3ft putts all day is boring.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by jetsknicks1

I hate the putt off. They can try to make it look dramatic all they want, but watching two guys trade 3ft putts all day is boring.

I actually hit the "fast forward" button during that part.  Imagine if PGA tournaments were decided on that.

Brandon

[Kieran123]

Originally Posted by jetsknicks1

I hate the putt off. They can try to make it look dramatic all they want, but watching two guys trade 3ft putts all day is boring.

They should of gone back to the tee

[aschroeger]

Originally Posted by Kieran123

They should of gone back to the tee

I wonder why they don't do a 2 hole stroke playoff...  Theres plenty of time in the show to edit that in instead of the put-off...

[Bpurc22]

According to wiki, kent has 7 professional Canadian wins. If they play 9/18 holes on the finale, one of the other guys is gonna have to go low to beat him. I also thought petey was the 2nd best on there but what can you do. He got knocked off early and i doubt kent would have been able to battle back from what petey did.

[GolfBear]

I'm not sure how much longer I can continue to watch this show in it's current format.   For every two minutes of golf there's 5 minutes of commercials.   You literally get 2 shots then some overly produced and highly fabricated cliff hanger.

I'm also finding myself increasingly irritated by Tom Whathisname.   I wish he'd just STFU and let Stephanie do all the talking.