How Many Majors Will Rory Win?

[the19thhole]

I voted 9-10 (10). To come out and play as he did after his blow up at the Masters showed a lot of mental toughness. His swing like others have said is almost perefect. I just hope he doesn't follow others and try and change it. His putting was a big improvement as well. Given a little luck to go with that talent he could easily pass 10 majors. Actually thinking about it, if as one poster said he has 16 years left playing good golf, is there any reason why he wouldn't win 1 major a year. For his sake though I hope we are not starting to build him up too much and putting expectations on his shoulders. For now I think we should just enjoy the talent he obviously is.

[Chilli Dipper]

I'll say somewhere between three and six.

Rory's a great player with a great future, but so are a lot of other players who are roughly the same age as him; he's just the first one to win big. Not only that, but there are plenty of older players who have a lot of game left. He may be the best player of his generation; I just don't think he'll be the dominant player of his generation.

Only 11 players have won more than six majors: Nicklaus, Woods, Hagen, Player, Hogan, Watson, Palmer, Snead, Sarazen, Jones, Vardon. Those men defined their eras, either alone or together with a contemporary of equal stature. Am I confident that McIlroy alone, or McIlroy with one or two others, will become synonymous with the game of golf itself for the next decade or two? Do I believe that Rory will end his career as the greatest European player of the modern era? That's what winning seven or more majors would mean, and that's a presumption I can't make at this time.

[tristanhilton85]

I voted 9-10.  He completely dominated everybody at the open and through three rounds at the Masters had pretty much done the same and was very close at the 2010 PGA where he missed the playoff by one stroke.  While this is his first major it very well could have been his third.  It also seems to me that he has a swing that should hold up so I see him being very good for a long time. 9-10 sounds right to me but I wouldn't be surprised my more.

[Clambake]

C'mon folks, it is just a poll for your guess, not some rigorous scientific experiment requiring exacting predictions.   Some of you are acting like if you guess wrong then Iacas is going to come repossess your house.

I guessed "5".      We've had other amazingly talented players begin their careers with seemingly unlimited potential like Mickelson an Els, and they only have one 4 and 3 respectively (and I don't feel either will win another).   For Rory to get to 5 would be an amazing achievement .

[ohiolefty]

I just had a 19th hole conversation about this....

I said 8.

Reasons for him not getting into double-digits, breaking records, etc.

• Depth of fields and increased globalization of game - we have great players from EVERYWHERE now, not just the U.S. and the British Isles, and we keep getting more from more (different) places
• Rory's already had a back issue last year. That makes me nervous. I live with chronic back pain every day. It takes a massive toll, and I'm not under the physical, mental, or emotional demands that Rory will be under.
• Burnout factor - see Tiger Woods, etc. Rory's been a figure of prominence in his home country since grammar school. Granted, Northern Ireland isn't L.A., and his dad's not Earl Woods, but a lot of the same factors could be in play. Plus, in today's media culture I would argue the burnout risk has only increased. Rory seems to have a great attitude now and able to take it all in stride. We'll see how it is, however, when he's got 5 majors and is making 10 times as much money and can't live a 'normal' life.

[x129]

Sort of depends on how the rest of the talent develops. There is a lot of under 30 talent out there right now. If a bunch of it develops, it could be hard for anyone to accumulate a lot of majors. And of course you can never predict things like injuries and personal problems. Hopefully Rory doesn't decide he needs to redo his swing....

Originally Posted by iacas

I'm putting my money on 7.5 as the over/under. Gonna be around there, I think.

[Chas]

I refuse to participate in a vote on a matter, the result of which I'm unlikely to live long enough to appreciate.

O what the heck ..... I'm going for 6, partly to vote differently from Erik, whereas 5 seems a little low.  Whatever, the guy has a fine career ahead of him if he doesn't drink too much Guiness.

[Ernest Jones]

I voted 9-10. His interview after the blowup at the Masters sold me. This kids got the potential to show some real longevity and with a swing like that...

[max power]

Nothing against Rory-I just don't see anyone (new-post Tiger) winning double digit majors, and probably not even 7 or 8.  As someone pointed out, the list of guys who've won more than 5 is really slim, and competition is tougher than ever and will only get tougher.  Winning "only" 4-6 total could still make Rory the best player of his generation.

Or I'm wrong and he turns into the Irish Tiger and wins one a year for the next ten years.  But I'm still sticking with 5.

[BruceMGF]

Originally Posted by ohiolefty

Depth of fields and increased globalization of game - we have great players from EVERYWHERE now, not just the U.S. and the British Isles, and we keep getting more from more (different) places

That's overstating the case.  I look at the top 50 and I see very few not from traditional golfing countries (there are more than just US-UK-Eire).  Other than the US (about 20) I see plenty from Britain, Ireland, South Africa (plus one Zimbabwean) and Australia.   Fewer than 10 from anywhere else, and only Kaymer in the top 15.

Try putting together a decent European Ryder Cup team without Britain and Ireland.  Or a decent international side for the President's Cup without South Africa and Australia.

[uttexas]

I voted 6. There is just so much money these days, I don't see how these guys could stay hungry for the 15-25 years you need to win double digit majors. Darn it, I would like to change my vote to 7, that way he would have one more major than Sir Nick

[shades9323]

Originally Posted by uttexas

I voted 6. There is just so much money these days, I don't see how these guys could stay hungry for the 15-25 years you need to win double digit majors. Darn it, I would like to change my vote to 7, that way he would have one more major than Sir Nick

The money issue is a great point.  Tiger made $75,000,000 last year without even winning a golf tournament. Rory won't reach those extremes. But it isn't unreasonable for him to be making $15 million/per year.  After a decade of making that much scratch, motivation to practice a lot and compete in a good amount of tournaments would be lacking for almost everybody out there.

[allin]

I chose 5. That would make him one of the modern greats. There have been many precocious golfers who won early, including majors and failed to fulfill their promise. Does he have the desire to maintain his level of play for the next 15-20 years? Wives, children, injures etc. His idea of a good life may not include obsessively pursuing golf majors.

[Gopher1000]

I voted 9-10. Seven of his last eight major tourament rounds (Masters; US Open) have been absolutley dominating. Couple an amazing swing/game with (i) a wide open field (see last four major champs prior to Rory's US Open victory), (ii) the continued decline of the old guard (e.g. Tiger, Phil, etc.) and (iii) his age, and I think you have the right conditions for him to go on quite a run. I can't wait to watch his career unfold. Golf needs a new "Tiger"...basically someone that you can bet against the rest of the field for any given tournament.

[deasy55]

His scoring average for his last 4 majors is 69.375. And that includes 2 rounds of 80!

His scoring average for the 14 rounds he didn't collapse in is 67.85. Fantastic shooting.

[Kieran123]

Anything over 6 would be a huge feat IMO

So right around 6 is where I think he will end up

[MrElculver2424]

I say 4 or 5. I don't think he'll ever be nearly as dominant as Tiger was, but he'll pull through in a few majors and he'll have a successful career. Tiger will return to the top and will prevent Rory from winning a couple more majors.

[deasy55]

I have my doubts about Tiger returning to the top. His leg is nearly falling off. I'm sure he will be competitive but I have my doubts about him getting back to being the best in the world.

Originally Posted by MrElculver2424

I say 4 or 5. I don't think he'll ever be nearly as dominant as Tiger was, but he'll pull through in a few majors and he'll have a successful career. Tiger will return to the top and will prevent Rory from winning a couple more majors.