Is 39 Too Old?

[ApocG10]

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

I would argue that it stops being a linear relation once you cross the threshhold into absolutes from 99.999% to 100% and likewise, from 0.0001% to 0%.   So, by my definition, somebody who says I highly, highly doubt you will make any money is more correct than somebody who say you have a very good chance of making money.  However, somebody who says you WILL NOT make any money is exactly as wrong as somebody who says you WILL make money.

Quote:

You are ALMOST certainly going to be right, but I stress the almost, because you may be 99.9999% sure, but you can't possibly be 100% sure.

Anything is possible.  Very remotely in this case, but possible.  That is all I am saying.

Oh, I dont disagree that anything is possible, But just him trying to translate range shots to the course shows how out of touch he is with the realities of golf.

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by ApocG10

Oh, I dont disagree that anything is possible, But just him trying to translate range shots to the course shows how out of touch he is with the realities of golf.

And regarding that, you aren't wrong.  I'm all for explaining just how difficult it is to accomplish what he is set out to do - after all, he did ask - I am just saying that we can do it without absolutes.

Although, you could use absolutes if they were factual.  For example: Nobody has ever made and money on the pro tour that started playing golf at age 39 .  (NOTE:  I HAVE NO IDEA IF THAT IS TRUE, JUST USING IT AS AN EXAMPLE)

But there is a first for everything, so even if the above statement were true wouldn't mean that OP couldn't do it.

[sean_miller]

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

Quote:

Originally Posted by sean_miller

Based on your stats, someone saying he certainly won't be earning any pro money is very close to being correct and certainly less wrong than someone suggesting he definitely will do it.

I would argue that it stops being a linear relation once you cross the threshhold into absolutes from 99.999% to 100% and likewise, from 0.0001% to 0%.   So, by my definition, somebody who says I highly, highly doubt you will make any money is more correct than somebody who say you have a very good chance of making money.  However, somebody who says you WILL NOT make any money is exactly as wrong as somebody who says you WILL make money.

If someone were going to invest their time and money into a venture that had a 0.0001% chance of success, I believe telling them they're not going to be successful is 99.999% accurate whereas the person saying the WILL make money is at least 0.0001% accurate or 99.999% wrong.

One could say that I disagree almost 100% with your opinion, and that's fine because this a discussion and not a court of law,

[Kapanda]

Definitely with golfingdad on this one.

The OP does not seem to have a reasonable awareness of what it takes to make money out of golf, but it is better to chase the dream regardless of the odds than living live with regrets.

If your son was 25 years old, just getting into college, and said he wanted to make it pro in football, would you tell him he will make it?

In hindsight (Weeden) it is obviously possible. It is only not possible if it isn't even tried.

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by sean_miller

One could say that I disagree almost 100% with your opinion, and that's fine because this a discussion and not a court of law,

And if one did say that, because they added the non-absolute qualifier "almost" I would agree with them.  100%.

[ejimsmith]

i say its a reasonable fact that the chances of you making money as a pro is ZERO.

[joekelly]

As a competitive pro, yes, exceedingly little chance to 'make money'.  But making money in the golf world is certainly possible.  Like musicians, not everyone who makes a buck is top flight competitive symphony orchestra or concert performer. Liberace was  good at the piano, but not great.  He did make tons of money.  Likewise, Sean Foley, may only be fair at competitive golf but is , probably, making a good buck in the golf business world.

[pipergsm]

Hi guys,

sorry for my long absence and thanks for all the reactions and opinions, I truly appreciate it.

to react on some of them: yes, I am out of touch with the realities of golf, for the simple reason that I am ABSOLUTELY NEW

when it comes to golf in general (not only playing it!).

for example: I didn't even realise that there were actually different tours and that the PGA is just 1 of them (together with the European tour undoubtedly the highest level).

Since I live in Thailand, I don't even think about reaching the PGA, just local, asian tournaments.

A side from that, I believe that my "naive innocence" might be an advantage, in that I believe "nothing is impossible", especially not in a technical sport

where it's not necessary to be a top-athlete to perform well.

after yet again having been unable to practice for about 2 months, I just restarted 4 days ago.

Unfortunately my job makes it a bit difficult to practice on a regular base, being a tour-guide (really need to find a solution for that).

so after 15 short practice sessions, spread over 5 months, using what seems to be 30 year old equipment (second hand, except for my driver and putter), being "an absolute beginner"

and self-taught, I just managed for the very first time to transfer some part of my practice results (70%?) to the course, resulting in a round of 106 (should have really been 100).

The thing is, I now realise what I was doing wrong before, and I also start to be aware of what it is exactly what I do, when I'm doing it right (or wrong).

Knowing this should result in me being able to reproduce and (quickly?) improve what I did today.

I am convinced that, very soon, I will break 90.

Now I know what you're thinking : 106, hahaha, what is he being so proud about????

Let's not forget, I've only been practicing for about 12 hours, spread over 5 months (I don't count the initial period because of a 16 month gap of total inactivity)

and I've been doing it all by myself, no teachers involved!

If I can do this in such a short period, who knows what I can reach in 4-5 years?

I'm not talking about reaching top 200 of the PGA here, but maybe making some money in the asian tour? (didn't know the difference before!)

I've done some research, and found out that quite some guys played pretty well even over their 50's!

Anyway, I just keep on practicing and "dreaming", realizing at the same time there is a very strong possibility I won't make it!

But that doesn't scare me.

I believe in the possibility, and at least I'll be able to say : I did my best!

[pipergsm]

Hi Moonnerd,

thx for this reaction, I find it very useful.

I also believe I need to start playing more and look for the nasty courses, as you suggest.

Even though I've only been practicing an extremely short time, I dare to say my short game is relatively good.

My biggest problem (on the course) is hitting my driver and irons the way I hit them at the driving range.

Till recently, whenever I played the course, it seemed like I'd never had a club in my hands!

My shots went all over the place, except where (and how) they needed to go!

Today, for the first time, it started to look more like my practice results.

result: 106 (should have really been about 100)

after only 12 hours of practice (not counting my initial period because of a 16 month period of complete inactivity), I think that's not a bad result.

I'll keep you posted about my progress!

[luu5]

Originally Posted by pipergsm

Now I know what you're thinking : 106, hahaha, what is he being so proud about????

Let's not forget, I've only been practicing for about 12 hours, spread over 5 months (I don't count the initial period because of a 16 month gap of total inactivity)

and I've been doing it all by myself, no teachers involved!

If I can do this in such a short period, who knows what I can reach in 4-5 years?

I bet not much more unless you start practicing 2-4 hours per day. Gaps of months do not help the development.

[Lihu]

Hi Moonnerd, thx for this reaction, I find it very useful. I also believe I need to start playing more and look for the nasty courses, as you suggest. Even though I've only been practicing an extremely short time, I dare to say my short game is relatively good. My biggest problem (on the course) is hitting my driver and irons the way I hit them at the driving range. Till recently, whenever I played the course, it seemed like I'd never had a club in my hands! My shots went all over the place, except where (and how) they needed to go! Today, for the first time, it started to look more like my practice results. result: 106 (should have really been about 100) after only 12 hours of practice (not counting my initial period because of a 16 month period of complete inactivity), I think that's not a bad result. I'll keep you posted about my progress!

Going from 100 to 63 has many steps, and shooting below scratch takes a lot more than practice. You need to have a real special gift. Breaking 100 is only the first step, now you would be a beginner. Breaking 90 would be the next step, then you are an intermediate golfer. I was really happy when I broke 90 the first time, but am still a beginner. Breaking 80 is my sons next step. He is 12 years old and his friend is 13 and they both shoot in the 70s sometimes on par 70/122. They are just barely teenagers and shoot in the high single digit to low teen handicaps, but probably won't make pro (I still encourage them, though). However, they are looking into real careers. My son never had aspirations to go pro, anyway. Set your goals for something possible, so you can achieve it. You might make it there in 15 years, and that is still not too old.

[Strike One]

Hi Piper,

I admire your enthusiasm for the game, something I think we all have in common here. Nothing wrong in aiming high and shooting for the stars either. Nevertheless, what needs to be factored in here is the "difficulty curve". It's not a linear curve, it's exponential. Dropping your score from 100 to 90 is relatively easy, I did it within about 2 months of playing and practicing 4-5 times a week. 90 to 80 will take me a bit longer, perhaps 6 months of the same routine.

I played a lot when I was younger and shot in the mid to low 80's, so I have some experience to base this prediction on. I'm now 56, in good physical shape and can hit the ball as far as I used to.

80 to 70 may or may not happen in my lifetime. This is because I know it gets exponentially harder to score lower.

Everybody's curve is different, but even the pro's hit a wall sooner or later. The degree of precision it takes to regularly shoot sub par is in the order of a magnitude compared to shooting 80. It's like the difference between a butcher and a surgeon (that's why they call guys like me hackers).

If you don't have to worry about holding down a job, or taking care of a household, then you have the freedom to devote the thousands of hours (and dollars) it takes to get really good at this game.

I don't mean to dampen your enthusiasm, but I would suggest some more moderate goals.

[pipergsm]

Hi Strike,

that's a point well taken. I realize it's gonna be much more difficult to get under 80 than it is to get under 100.

However, my hope remains indestructable!   LOL

I'm practicing on all the different aspects of the games, and my results, so far, lead me to believe that "I COULD" become a scratch player quite quickly (3-4 months?)

provided I can practice on a regular base (which is not the case at this moment, but I'm working on that), especially now that I've discovered what was keeping me

from transferring my practice results to the course.

for example, in todays round, my putting average was 2.2 (including a shot from just outside the green but taken with the putter, and 2 very close missers).

Most of the time (with the little practice I've had) my chips and bunker-shots end up quite close to the hole (sometimes even straight in, distance about 15 yds, during practice).

Both my driver and iron shots go quite straight and rarely slice or hook (irons virtually never).

I know this game is more than just hitting the ball.

Knowing what exactly you (can) do with each club and implementing that during the game, etc... (amazing what you can learn by just surfing the internet and

watching/analyzing the free tutorial video's!).

Don't take me wrong, I know I'm still far from being a decent player, and I don't even dream of becoming a real star player.

But I believe the seeds for success (even if it's only limited) are there.

All it takes now is practice, experience and endurance.

Only the future can tell how far I'll finally get!

[soon_tourpro]

Takes more time and dedication than people realize, doable yes but worth doing it indvidually so.

Once you shoot 63-68 on your home course regulary then your ready to go tourschool.

you also need to shoot similar scores on other courses

That is how good you need to be.

[ejimsmith]

Originally Posted by pipergsm

Hi Strike,

that's a point well taken. I realize it's gonna be much more difficult to get under 80 than it is to get under 100.

However, my hope remains indestructable!   LOL

I'm practicing on all the different aspects of the games, and my results, so far, lead me to believe that "I COULD" become a scratch player quite quickly (3-4 months?)

provided I can practice on a regular base (which is not the case at this moment, but I'm working on that), especially now that I've discovered what was keeping me

from transferring my practice results to the course.

for example, in todays round, my putting average was 2.2 (including a shot from just outside the green but taken with the putter, and 2 very close missers).

Most of the time (with the little practice I've had) my chips and bunker-shots end up quite close to the hole (sometimes even straight in, distance about 15 yds, during practice).

Both my driver and iron shots go quite straight and rarely slice or hook (irons virtually never).

I know this game is more than just hitting the ball.

Knowing what exactly you (can) do with each club and implementing that during the game, etc... (amazing what you can learn by just surfing the internet and

watching/analyzing the free tutorial video's!).

Don't take me wrong, I know I'm still far from being a decent player, and I don't even dream of becoming a real star player.

But I believe the seeds for success (even if it's only limited) are there.

All it takes now is practice, experience and endurance.

Only the future can tell how far I'll finally get!

with your rocket pace of improving, you'll be quite the formidable opponent come early next year!

but seriously.. the only way you'll ever make money on the asian tour is if you get a job parking cars at the events.

[Lihu]

Originally Posted by pipergsm

Hi Strike,

that's a point well taken. I realize it's gonna be much more difficult to get under 80 than it is to get under 100.

However, my hope remains indestructable!   LOL

I'm practicing on all the different aspects of the games, and my results, so far, lead me to believe that "I COULD" become a scratch player quite quickly (3-4 months?)

provided I can practice on a regular base (which is not the case at this moment, but I'm working on that), especially now that I've discovered what was keeping me

from transferring my practice results to the course.

for example, in todays round, my putting average was 2.2 (including a shot from just outside the green but taken with the putter, and 2 very close missers).

Most of the time (with the little practice I've had) my chips and bunker-shots end up quite close to the hole (sometimes even straight in, distance about 15 yds, during practice).

Both my driver and iron shots go quite straight and rarely slice or hook (irons virtually never).

I know this game is more than just hitting the ball.

Knowing what exactly you (can) do with each club and implementing that during the game, etc... (amazing what you can learn by just surfing the internet and

watching/analyzing the free tutorial video's!).

Don't take me wrong, I know I'm still far from being a decent player, and I don't even dream of becoming a real star player.

But I believe the seeds for success (even if it's only limited) are there.

All it takes now is practice, experience and endurance.

Only the future can tell how far I'll finally get!

I know what you are feeling, how hard could it be to hit a ball a few hundred yards into a little hole?

Try this:

1) Make (50) 6 foot putts in a row from any spot on any putting green.

2) Chip from 40 yards and hole at least 10% of the balls.

3) Drive a bucket of balls 280 yards to a spot within 15 yards of each other (not range balls)

4) Get into birdie position on any par 3 (lets say maximum 180 yards for starters)

This is really hard, kind of like scoring 63 on any regulation course.

Just watch some of the single digit  or scratch handicaps on this forum (Myswing videos), you'll be really impressed.

Keep in mind that the best of these people are still 7 to 12 strokes away from the tour pros, which is a lot at this level.

You should follow your dreams, but don't get too carried away and sacrifice too many other things in pursuit of this.

[Chas]

As a solo walk-on yesterday I played with a guy who I estimate to be mid-40's. He said he'd been playing seriously for 10 years, but rarely more than once a week, though he played a bit in South Africa as a youth. His driving average on the day was about 280 yds and he hit most fairways - always a wedge to a par 4 from back tees. Better than average day with driver he said but it looked to me like this was fairly routine. He had a high GIR and putted well, ended up 2 over. If he hadn't pulled a long iron over a ridge on a blind par 4 (into a gnarly canyon), he might have parred the round. [I got lucky with my 3h and parred that one but had a bad back nine]. Strong looking fellow with a shortish, compact backswing. Nice guy too. So it can be done. I started somewhat seriously at 50 - different story. I was on target for a sub-80 round until the 10th .... Making money at it? Keep your day job IMHO.

[Nosevi]

I really don't know what is or isn't possible. Nick Faldo watched the Masters, liked the look of it so borrowed a friend's clubs for a round of golf. 4 years later he won the British youth championship and turned pro the next year - less than 5 years after first swinging a golf club. It's only impossible till someone does it. It is, however, pretty unlikely. I'm 38 and am new to golf myself, played Rugby till an injury 3 years ago took me out of contact sports. Played seriouslyish for a year now and just got my initial handicap of 5.5 (would have been 4.5 but our national union won't give a Cat 1 handicap straight off). Don't know how good someone can get with a bit of tallent and a lot of hard work but I'm willing to try and find out so am practicing full time as of last month. Not looking to go on tour or anything as grand as that but just don't need to work at the mo and love golf. It's going pretty well. Just got back from the range and my coach (who's the head coach of the English Golf Union Academy) stopped me after half an hour and said "Do you always have to hit the bloody thing straight!" Nicest thing he's ever said to me.