2014 NCAA Football

[Golfingdad]

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11969533/college-football-playoff-rankings-tcu-horned-frogs-move-undefeated-florida-state-seminoles

Florida State fell to 4th.  It's not really relevant to their case, though, because there is no scenario where they beat a ranked team and fall.  They've been squeaking past weak teams the last few weeks.  Georgia Tech is not a weak team.  If they win, they're in.

TCU has a little cushion that it's going to need with only Iowa State remaining.

This flop doesn't hurt FSU, but it does hurt OSU and Baylor.  If TCU is 4th and Baylor and/or OSU impresses against a strong opponent, then I can easily see them getting passed.  However, with them up at 3rd, its going to be a tad harder.

If everybody does what they're supposed to do this weekend, I would bet that the 4 remain the same but FSU and TCU swap places again.

Also, at this point, after all of the talk in previous weeks of the SEC potentially getting 2 in, the only conference with that chance now (and I'd say it's a pretty good one) is the Big -12.  I could easily see FSU and OSU losing this weekend.

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Random, guaranteed to be wrong, prediction:

Everybody wins this weekend except Florida State.  The first round of the playoffs are:

Alabama vs. Ohio State

Oregon vs. TCU

Championship Game is Alabama vs. Oregon

[J M Brown]

I'm an OSU fan so I hope they beat Wisconsin and make the top four. I'm just afraid Cardale Jones will struggle similar to the way Barrett did. Granted the offensive line has made leaps and bounds from Barrett's early struggles.

[Vinsk]

@saevel Facts? What's Ohio's bowl record against SEC teams? Hell, look at their bowl record period. Why is it that Ohio gets their ass kicked the vast majority of the time in big bowl games? Why? Because as usual they have been pampered with an easy schedule and from the 1970's the old voters always put them where they don't deserve. They lost to friggin Vtech. They've beaten no one except a mediocre MSU. Beating the #25 Minnesota was hailed as an enormous victory. Alabama had to play LSU at LSU then play the #1 team. Meanwhile Ohio played the mighty Gophers followed by the devasting Indiana....gimmie a break. Sour grapes? You have no argument for Ohio. They are time and time again overrated and their bowl performances substantiate that clearly. If Ohio beats Wisconsin....they'll get to play a real team and they'll be humiliated as usual. Then they'll be given a free high ranking next season only to easily keep their undeserved high rank followed by a string of cupcakes and the process repeats itself. If Ohio was in the SEC they'd be 6-6 at best. Until Ohio can get a respectful non conference schedule, you're just one of those brainwashed fan dopes who doesn't really understand college football.

[Vinsk]

[URL=http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11969533/college-football-playoff-rankings-tcu-horned-frogs-move-undefeated-florida-state-seminoles]http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11969533/college-football-playoff-rankings-tcu-horned-frogs-move-undefeated-florida-state-seminoles[/URL] Florida State fell to 4th.  It's not really relevant to their case, though, because there is no scenario where they beat a ranked team and fall.  They've been squeaking past weak teams the last few weeks.  Georgia Tech is not a weak team.  If they win, they're in. TCU has a little cushion that it's going to need with only Iowa State remaining. This flop doesn't hurt FSU, but it does hurt OSU and Baylor.  If TCU is 4th and Baylor and/or OSU impresses against a strong opponent, then I can easily see them getting passed.  However, with them up at 3rd, its going to be a tad harder. If everybody does what they're supposed to do this weekend, I would bet that the 4 remain the same but FSU and TCU swap places again. Also, at this point, after all of the talk in previous weeks of the SEC potentially getting 2 in, the only conference with that chance now (and I'd say it's a pretty good one) is the Big -12.  I could easily see FSU and OSU losing this weekend. [rule] Random, guaranteed to be wrong, prediction: Everybody wins this weekend except Florida State.  The first round of the playoffs are: Alabama vs. Ohio State Oregon vs. TCU Championship Game is Alabama vs. Oregon

LOL!!! Ohio vs Alabama? What a humiliating experience for Ohio. Not even the same area code of play. Alabama would embarrass Ohio by at least 21pts.

[teamroper60]

I think OSU is overrated, but I don't think 6-6 is necessarily accurate. Everybody (including me) said Mizzou would be bottom feeders in the SEC too and clearly that hasn't been the case. Urban has a little experience with that conference. I suspect he could prep a team well enough to win the SEC east.

[teamroper60]

I'm an OSU fan so I hope they beat Wisconsin and make the top four. I'm just afraid Cardale Jones will struggle similar to the way Barrett did.

This is why I didn't think OSU should move up this week. Barrett was 9/29 against VT before turning on the afterburners. Jones doesn't have the luxury of some tune up games. He basically gets one shot to give OSU a chance at the playoffs. If he shines this week against Wisconsin, then we can revisit their ranking. But having one week to prepare a guy who has 17 attempts on the year to replace a guy responsible for 34 touchdowns AND do this for an absolute must win game is a tall order.

[DoubleEagle]

I think 2 of the top 6 will lose this week....Both could be in the top 4.

[mcanadiens]

@Vinsk , Ohio is a Mid-American Conference team. It is 6-6 right now and is coming off a 24-21 win over Miami (OH) University. They lost the only game played against a SEC school 20-3 v. Kentucky. Ohio, nicknamed the Bobcats for what its worth, also lost 31-13 to my Bowling Green State University Falcons. Other fun facts include ... Ohio University is based in Athens, OH. They wear green and white. The head coach is former Nebraska mentor, Frank Solich.

I don't really care if you want to needle Ohio State fans, but as someone who went to a MAC school, I'd appreciate it if you find a different way.

[k-troop]

@saevel

If Ohio was in the SEC they'd be 6-6 at best. Until Ohio can get a respectful non conference schedule, you're just one of those brainwashed fan dopes who doesn't really understand college football.

So much wrong with this.  First, I assume you mean a respectable schedule.  Respectful is a word with a completely different meaning...but I wouldn't expect you to understand the meaning of respectful if your argument includes calling people brainwashed dopes and other personal attacks.

tOSU played three currently bowl-eligible FBS teams in it's OOC schedule.  Bama played one.  Before you call @saevel25 out on facts, why don't you choose an argument with actual facts to support it.

CFB poll rankings are circular.  The SEC gets a boost because they play a bunch of other "ranked" teams from the SEC.  I'm not saying the SEC doesn't produce a bunch of good football teams, but the rankings are not conclusive of their worth.  The SEC was 0-4 against the ACC last weekend, BTW.  Two of those SEC teams have been ranked in the top-10 this season.

[saevel25]

I think OSU is overrated, but I don't think 6-6 is necessarily accurate. Everybody (including me) said Mizzou would be bottom feeders in the SEC too and clearly that hasn't been the case. Urban has a little experience with that conference. I suspect he could prep a team well enough to win the SEC east.

He could prep a team that could win the SEC west if he wanted. He went 36-12 (0.750) in SEC Conference Play.

I always like how crazy SEC lovers get all up and arms about any OSU or BG10 fans. I mean, come one seriously. They are clearly the dominant conference in college football, yet they have the biggest inferiority complex of any fans out there. It is like they are afraid if anyone starts talking otherwise then the whole thing will fall apart and they will suddenly become the worst conference.

OMG, OSU is ranked high, they are overrated (sarcasm). So what? It is one team out of over a 120 in college football. Boo Hoo keep crying SEC fans.

If OSU fans have gotten so far under the skin of SEC fans that they have to cry every time someone mentions OSU in the conversation for NC Game implications or as a good team, I take that as a WIN!!!

As Mark Crossfield would put it, "I'M IN, NEVER LET ME IN!"

This is why I didn't think OSU should move up this week. Barrett was 9/29 against VT before turning on the afterburners. Jones doesn't have the luxury of some tune up games. He basically gets one shot to give OSU a chance at the playoffs. If he shines this week against Wisconsin, then we can revisit their ranking. But having one week to prepare a guy who has 17 attempts on the year to replace a guy responsible for 34 touchdowns AND do this for an absolute must win game is a tall order.

I am confused by the CFP Committee as well. They clearly stated that injuries will be taken into account. I was expecting OSU to stay the same and the Committee  to come out and say that they have to prove to them they are a good team with out Barrett.

Yet one of the Committee members was interviewed last night about OSU. He said that they would evaluate the injury after OSU plays Winsconsin. Yet they still bumped OSU up as spot. Isn't that not even taking the injury into account. The only option I see is if OSU wins and Jones doesn't look impressive.

Do they dock OSU for Jones not playing well. If OSU loses they are out. The only scenario would be if OSU wins but Jones doesn't look good. Still, in reverse logic, is OSU that good at other positions that they could make up for the loss of Barrett?

I think the Committee is really in no-mans land here. I am not sure what their rhetoric is on injuries.

[Vinsk]

Ohio is 0-9 vs SEC bowl teams. 0-9. Their overall record is 19-24. That's miserable. Ohio has played 0 top ten teams this season (as usual). The facts are all over the Internet. Colin Cowherd has repeatedly explained how weak the big 10 is along with many other sports analysts. Herbstreit of course is biased as he played q-back there. Ohio fans never have a strong argument. I ask why they are 0-9 against SEC or why their overall bowl appearances are a disaster and nobody can give a good explanation. It's because as usual Ohio took a free ride to the top then played a team that belonged there and got humiliated. And no, I didn't mean schedule ....I meant non conference schedule as there are no teams in the Big Ten that warrant a worthy victory. So not only does Ohio relax every weekend when playing a fellow big 10 weak team...they go off and play miserable non conference teams. But you guys are typical Ohio fans. Blind to the facts that Ohio has a miserably poor bowl record. You like to cling onto stats that come from playing unranked teams all season. "Fan dopes"? Please....its a discussion. If that is offensive to you you need to look deep within yourself and quit letting the media convince you that's an attack on your character. Grow up and just enjoy the debate and quit being so thin skinned.

[Vinsk]

Auburn. Auburn plays 7 top 25 teams. 7. Ohio? Ya wanna count Vtech huh? The gophers! MSU....that's it. I know flukes certainly happen. But if Ohio had virtually any SEC team schedule ...they wouldn't be any where near 11-1. Period. If Ohio played 7 top 25 teams....they'd be right where they belong .....bottom of the top 25 if even that.

[phan52]

Auburn. Auburn plays 7 top 25 teams. 7. Ohio? Ya wanna count Vtech huh? The gophers! MSU....that's it. I know flukes certainly happen. But if Ohio had virtually any SEC team schedule ...they wouldn't be any where near 11-1. Period. If Ohio played 7 top 25 teams....they'd be right where they belong .....bottom of the top 25 if even that.

You really don't know that. All hypothetical. I hate Ohio State, and Urban Meyer even more, but if they win the Big Ten Conference title game they deserve a seat at the table over one of the Big 12 teams or a runner-up in the SEC.

I think it'll be moot though, because I expect Florida State to lose to GT. It'll be Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State and probably TCU. They'll put Ohio State #3 so they can have a Pac-12/Big 10 Rose Bowl game.

[saevel25]

Ohio fans never have a strong argument. I ask why they are 0-9 against SEC or why their overall bowl appearances are a disaster and nobody can give a good explanation. It's because as usual Ohio took a free ride to the top then played a team that belonged there and got humiliated.

And no, I didn't mean schedule ....I meant non conference schedule as there are no teams in the Big Ten that warrant a worthy victory

Lets look at Ohio State's SOS

Ohio States SOS rankings, http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/strength-of-schedule-by-team

2003: 6th

2004: 30th

2005: 8th

2006: 7th

2007: 9th

2008: 9th

2009: 24th

2010: 18th

2011: 36th

2012: 35th

2013: 21st

2014: 33rd (Currently)

Has Ohio State SOS been pretty bad the last couple of years. Yea, it has. I want to see Ohio State play more games against good teams. As an OSU fan, I want to see those games. I will agree the scheduling has not been good the past 5 years. Your claim that they always played a cupcake schedule is false. For a 6 year span they played a top 10 schedule 5 out of those 6 years.

No matter how much you claim Ohio State has had a bad SOS, they still had a SOS that was better than 70% of college football (36th out of 120 is 30%, so they are greater than the inverse of that, which is 70%). That is a fact.

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Please....its a discussion.

Now if you want to have a discussion on how SOS should matter in terms of rankings that is fine. I think it should matter. You are not going to get consistent rankings because no one has figured out a way to equate strength of schedule to actual wins and losses.

Example, how many wins or losses does a 10 spots make in SOS rankings. So lets say Alabama SOS is 1st and Oregon's is ranked 11th. Does that equate to 1 extra win or 1 less loss. Until you can quantify that, you can't really ever say how much SOS matters.

In the end maybe you have a top 10 SOS versus a middle 30's SOS doesn't really equate to a full win or a full loss. If that is the case, then there should be no complaining if a 1 loss Ohio State is ranked in the mid 30's in SOS (see above) versus a 2 loss SEC team with a top 10 SOS.

In that regard, should Ohio State be ranked 5th, I have no clue. It is out of my control, so I don't want to waste effort in trying to worry about it. All that matters is what the Committee thinks and how they rank Ohio State.

If you want to sit back and claim, "0-9 SEC this, disastrous bowl game appearances that". Go ahead, IT doesn't matter. Those claims have been spouted off by Mark May for years. They have been spouted off by a lot of other sports analysts for years. Guess what, it doesn't change the fact that people will still rank Ohio State in the top 10 if they have a 1 loss to no-loss season.

So all I can say to you is,

In the end, as an OSU fan, I will take being overrated because it gives us the opportunity to play in big time bowl games and for NC games. In the end, no matter how tough a schedule OSU can put together, you will never give us the benefit of the doubt.

So, really your opinion and those similar to you mean absolutely NOTHING, and you hate that.

Auburn. Auburn plays 7 top 25 teams. 7. Ohio? Ya wanna count Vtech huh? The gophers! MSU....that's it. I know flukes certainly happen. But if Ohio had virtually any SEC team schedule ...they wouldn't be any where near 11-1. Period. If Ohio played 7 top 25 teams....they'd be right where they belong .....bottom of the top 25 if even that.

You can't prove that, period. It is impossible to prove because Ohio State never played that schedule. All you have is hersay based on your own biased opinion.

In the end you are clutching at straw just like every other SEC crybaby. Boo Hoo OSU is ranked 5th, Boo Hoo they played a weaker schedule, Boo Hoo. Keep crying up a storm, nothing will change. Heck it even might get worse. Imagine an 8 team play off. Even MORE spots that Ohio state can fall into.

[Golfingdad]

I think it'll be moot though, because I expect Florida State to lose to GT. It'll be Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State and probably TCU. They'll put Ohio State #3 so they can have a Pac-12/Big 10 Rose Bowl game.

We have the exact same final four!  However, your Rose Bowl idea is waaaaaay better than my non-idea ... so I hope they do this.

[teamroper60]

I think 2 of the top 6 will lose this week....Both could be in the top 4.

To me, the two teams who look the most vulnerable are the ones sitting at 5 & 6.  OSU because of the aforementioned QB situation and Baylor because K-State is a pretty good team and they rarely beat themselves.

Auburn. Auburn plays 7 top 25 teams. 7. Ohio? Ya wanna count Vtech huh? The gophers! MSU....that's it. I know flukes certainly happen. But if Ohio had virtually any SEC team schedule ...they wouldn't be any where near 11-1. Period. If Ohio played 7 top 25 teams....they'd be right where they belong .....bottom of the top 25 if even that.

Anybody can schedule top 25 teams but beating them is another story.  Auburn has won 3 games against top 25 teams.  IF OSU wins this weekend, they will also have 3 wins against top 25 teams.    And BTW, I am most decidedly NOT an OSU fan.

I think it'll be moot though, because I expect Florida State to lose to GT. It'll be Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State and probably TCU. They'll put Ohio State #3 so they can have a Pac-12/Big 10 Rose Bowl game.

I don't think that will happen.  I suspect FSU has a loss in them yet but I am thinking they will win this weekend, jump TCU to be 3rd and lose to Oregon.   At the same time I think TCU loses to Alabama.  Ultimately, given the way 'Bama struggles with mobile QB's, I think Oregon is going to prove to be too much for 'Bama in the NC game.

[mcanadiens]

The whole SOS stuff makes my head hurt. What I know is what I see. What I see is that Ohio State's defense just isn't up to par. I've watched all but a couple of games (golf conflict of course). There are just too many holes.

Understand that I'll always go with my school Bowling Green first, but the Buckeyes are a close second. That said, I believe a game with any of those teams in the top four could be pretty painful. Beating Wisconsin, even if JT was healthy, is far from certain.

[saevel25]

The whole SOS stuff makes my head hurt. What I know is what I see. What I see is that Ohio State's defense just isn't up to par. I've watched all but a couple of games (golf conflict of course). There are just too many holes.

Understand that I'll always go with my school Bowling Green first, but the Buckeyes are a close second. That said, I believe a game with any of those teams in the top four could be pretty painful. Beating Wisconsin, even if JT was healthy, is far from certain.

In the secondary they have had great strides. They are head and shoulders above last year. Overall they are a better defense than last year. They are just young and not fundamentally sound, and haven't been able to get off blocks as often as they need to. Their defensive stats are not bad, they are actually good in a lot of areas, but have given up too many explosive plays in the run game.

Really, for how Ohio State's offense works, their defense is pretty good. Ohio State is ranked 11th in Offense, but that is only because they are ranked 107th in Methodical Drives (drives of 10 plays or more).

Also, casually looking at their time of possession per scoring drive. It looks like they usually range from 2 minutes to 5 minutes per drive. They also average less than 10 plays per drive. They also average on 36 yard line per drive for starting field position (2nd in the nation). This tells me that Ohio State is crazy efficient on offense. They start on a shorter field. They do not go 3 and out often. Basically the defense is on the field more often for Ohio State than most other teams. The reason they win games is because their offense is crazy efficient and scores a lot of points.

I guess if Urban wanted to he could go Tressel ball. Wait for the play clock to read 5 each time. He could probably stretch out the TOP to 6-8 minutes per drive. That would effectively reduce the time the defense is on the field, and in effect give the defense less opportunities to be scored on.

I believe it was Erik that mentioned that the old adage that Defenses win championships is incorrect. Offenses has a lot to do with defensive stats. Especially the time of possession stat. I think more importantly time per drive.

Just for fun, here is a list of points per drive for the top 7 teams, listed in order of net (points for minus points against)

10-1 Marshall: 2nd / 17th

11-1 Ohio State: 3rd / 23rd

10-1 Oregon: 1st / 64th

9-2  Wisconsin: 10th / 9th

10-1 Alabama: 14th / 7th

9-1  Baylor: 4th / 26th

9-1  TCU: 13th / 16th

9-2  Michigan State: 9th / 24th

.....

11-0 FSU: 26th / 35th (ranked 21st overall, they suck)

What is cool about this table is that it pretty much is listed in order of losses. As the points differential gets smaller to worse the team loses more games. Makes sense.

What you also note is, the top 8 teams, 6 out of the 8 teams have a top 10 OFFENSE, and 2 out of the 8 teams have a top 10 defense. Hmmmm, maybe winning games isn't really about elite defenses.  Also note that if a team has a top 10 offense they usually doesn't have a top 10 defense. Wisconsin is the odd ball because they run a slower paced offense, and try to rule the Time of Possession. They are just very good at scoring when they do have the ball, but they also limit the number of drives by holding onto the ball.

Heck, even Ohio State's defense isn't the worse in the top 8. Oregon sits number 2 in the nation with a defense that gives up the 64th most points per play. They suffer from the same issue as Ohio State. They score quick and often.

Really, I think the days are over for Ohio State holding opponents to less than 15 points per game. Yes, Ohio State needs to get a tad better fundamentally at stopping the run. Besides that, their defense is pretty good. Clearly they are 3rd in points per drive differential. I guess they could slow the pace down a bit and take a few drives away from the other team's offenses.