How Would You Play It? (Hole #10 at Goose Creek)

[onthehunt526]

@iacas I know you are advocating laying up short of the big bunker. I do see your logic that you are more often than not going to make par or no worse than bogey with this strategy.

My question is, from looking at the measurements that were taken before, couldn't you hit say a fairway wood/hybrid/long iron at the single tree on the right and still take the bunker out of play?

[Golfingdad]

I'm still thinking driver might be the right play for me.  (I'm not sold on it yet, and that's why I'm posting - not to try and convince anybody)  Here's a photo with some estimated shot zones and distances:

That driver shot zone is 70x30 starting at 250 and ending at 280.  The layup shot zone (4I or 5I) is 45x25 and starts at 185, going to 210 from the tee.  The one on the green is 32x20 and is meant to be the shot zone of the approach from the layup, which would be anywhere from an 8I or 9I down to a 50* wedge.

The logic for that location of the driver shot zone is that there is no place where I can put it and keep the big bunker out of it, so there is no reason to bring the tree or cart path into play on the right, or the bunker on the right either.  (It should actually probably be about 5 yards further left.)  This shot zone is total distance, not carry, so the area of the bunker, the rough around the bunker and the grass just beyond the bunker is just about 35% of the total area of within the zone.  For the sake of simplicity, let's say a third of all drives will find that bunker.  That means 3 times I will have an approach from the bunker that is anywhere from 55 yards to 90 yards.  The other 7 times I will have an approach from grass, usually fairway, that ranges from about 45 to almost 100.  I don't really have to figure the number for these - they are going to average considerably closer to the hole than the 7 best from the layup zone, which are coming in from 20-45 yards further.

So all that needs to be compared is the worst 3 approaches from the layup zone to the 3 approaches coming out of the bunker.  2 of the 3 from the layup zone are probably still nGIR, and the third might be in the greenside bunker or, at worst, a 20-25 yard pitch shot.  From the fairway bunker, I would estimate that I could also get 2 of the 3 to at least an nGIR and the third likely chunked halfway there, leaving a 25-30 yard pitch for my third.  Because those are pretty close in final outcomes, I lean towards the driver because the 7 good ones are always going to outperform the 7 good ones from the layup zone.

That's my logic at least.  Curious where I might have gone wrong.

Also, I found a pretty good picture on their website showing the same thing as above from ground level (basically taken from just below the bottom center of my graphic looking directly at the bunker in the top center of the graphic):

[DeadMan]

I think you're vastly overestimating how good you are with a 50-100 yard bunker shot.

[Golfingdad]

32 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

I think you're vastly overestimating how good you are with a 50-100 yard bunker shot.

Hahaha - touché.

Well played, my friend.

[DeadMan]

But seriously, PGA Tour players don't usually get down in 3 from the sand from 60 yards. I think if you go in the sand, you're likely making bogey. And I don't think getting closer in the grass will result in a birdie often enough to offset that. Plus, the sand does bring double bogey into play. You could easily have a 70 yard bunker shot that you chunk and end up with a 50 yard bunker shot.

I think the play is to avoid the sand no matter what. A lay up accomplishes this. Going to the right of the bunker might also do that.

[RandallT]

54 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

I don't really have to figure the number for these - they are going to average considerably closer to the hole than the 7 best from the layup zone, which are coming in from 20-45 yards further.

Using the data here, we can put some numbers to it (but they aren't particular to this hole, so it's somewhat bogus). But with that caveat, those 7 driver shots that end up in the fairway will give you a 1 stroke advantage compared to laying back in the fairway those 7 times. Ballpark. I compared 70yd fairway shot to 130yd fairway shot.

56 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

So all that needs to be compared is the worst 3 approaches from the layup zone to the 3 approaches coming out of the bunker.

As far as how the 3 other approaches go, the numbers kinda put you back such that you lose that 1 stroke back. I used 70yd sand shot compared to 130yd fairway shot (the 130yd fairway shot is far better). 

Again, just very rough numbers from PGA data across an entire season, nothing specific to your game or this course. But it's interesting that it turns out to be a wash- what you gain by being aggressive and it working out, you lose by hitting the bunker. So you picked an interesting hole with your shot zone of 33% bunker result.

[bm85]

I'm torn between laying up or seeing if I can get close to that front edge.

It depends on the weather, and what shot I saw from the tee box.

[Golfingdad]

25 minutes ago, RandallT said:

Using the data here, we can put some numbers to it (but they aren't particular to this hole, so it's somewhat bogus). But with that caveat, those 7 driver shots that end up in the fairway will give you a 1 stroke advantage compared to laying back in the fairway those 7 times. Ballpark. I compared 70yd fairway shot to 130yd fairway shot.

As far as how the 3 other approaches go, the numbers kinda put you back such that you lose that 1 stroke back. I used 70yd sand shot compared to 130yd fairway shot (the 130yd fairway shot is far better). 

Again, just very rough numbers from PGA data across an entire season, nothing specific to your game or this course. But it's interesting that it turns out to be a wash- what you gain by being aggressive and it working out, you lose by hitting the bunker. So you picked an interesting hole with your shot zone of 33% bunker result.

Thanks.  Yeah, it does seem to be a pretty good hole that provides a few options.  (I tried the math too and for a tour player, like you said, it's almost an exact wash, lol.  3 bunker shots from 60 + 7 fairway shots from 80 VS. 10 fairway shots from 130 gives an average of 2.87 VS. 2.88.) Ha!

The course has quite a few fun holes.  They actually have another hole there that is very similar.  Except that one is longer so laying back gives you 160 to the hole, the bunker isn't quite as long so I can actually carry it (265) if I hit it really well, and all down the left side is a hazard you cannot play from so you have to go right.  From the air, the holes look super similar, but IMO the decisions aren't at all. :)

[Grinde6]

31 minutes ago, bm85 said:

I'm torn between laying up or seeing if I can get close to that front edge.

It depends on the weather, and what shot I saw from the tee box.

To the front edge over the bunker, or a draw up the right side of the big bunker with a lot of run out?  Or do you normally carry the ball about 290?

[iacas]

6 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

@iacas I know you are advocating laying up short of the big bunker. I do see your logic that you are more often than not going to make par or no worse than bogey with this strategy.

My question is, from looking at the measurements that were taken before, couldn't you hit say a fairway wood/hybrid/long iron at the single tree on the right and still take the bunker out of play?

Drew plays a draw, IIRC, and the trees right of the tee don't favor playing a draw:

If those trees are a non-factor, then I'd imagine laying up will result in about the same scoring overall… with a narrower range of scores.

6 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

That's my logic at least.  Curious where I might have gone wrong.

@DeadMan said it:

6 hours ago, DeadMan said:

I think you're vastly overestimating how good you are with a 50-100 yard bunker shot.

That.

5 hours ago, RandallT said:

Again, just very rough numbers from PGA data across an entire season, nothing specific to your game or this course. But it's interesting that it turns out to be a wash- what you gain by being aggressive and it working out, you lose by hitting the bunker. So you picked an interesting hole with your shot zone of 33% bunker result.

And that's on PGA Tour condition courses… your bunker is not going to be maintained to a PGA Tour level standard. They're really, really good (relatively) at those long bunker shots. You're not.  You'll chunk them, blade them, etc.

And under a tournament, if two plays seem about the same, consider the option that's more likely to result in NOT the high number, if you know what I mean. Even if two plays are going to average the same, pick the one with the smaller scoring spread. If they're basically equal.

[Lihu]

Hey @Golfingdad, how about discussing the 17 other holes at Goose Creek prior to April 30th?

[bm85]

15 minutes ago, Grinde6 said:

To the front edge over the bunker, or a draw up the right side of the big bunker with a lot of run out?  Or do you normally carry the ball about 290?

I get some good ones in a round, but carrying 290 normally would be fantasy.

Option 3 is fine with me, but my god does it sound a little boring.

"Drove those bunkers, hit it 310! KING KONG"

or

"Oh yeah, think I made par there."

 

 

[golfintheworld]

How much am I playing for  ?

To have a 120 wedge from the center of the fairway seems like money to me.

[Lihu]

31 minutes ago, bm85 said:

I get some good ones in a round, but carrying 290 normally would be fantasy.

Option 3 is fine with me, but my god does it sound a little boring.

"Drove those bunkers, hit it 310! KING KONG"

or

"Oh yeah, think I made par there."

So, golf is supposed to be fun and filled with adventure! 310 yard King Kong drives would definitely fit that bill. . .

 

Unless, you happen to be playing for higher than normal stakes as in. . .

25 minutes ago, golfintheworld said:

How much am I playing for  ?

To have a 120 wedge from the center of the fairway seems like money to me.

120 from the center of the fairway takes a really solidly played 3W or whatever you need to get 240-250 out right. The difference between a 5i/9i and 3W/50 degree is not significant enough for me to take chances with that monster bunker. Even a 30 to 50 yard shot if you make it over the bunker doesn't really guarantee a birdie.

The way I look at it, someone designed this hole to take driver out of the picture for 99% of golfers, and I see no reason to depart from his intentions? When I stand on that tee box, I'll probably say something like "Oh, crap." just like on many of the holes on this course. There are fairways where you roll OB from a less than perfect tee shot or approach. It's a fun course, but likely designed for strategy.

[Golfingdad]

3 hours ago, Lihu said:

Hey @Golfingdad, how about discussing the 17 other holes at Goose Creek prior to April 30th?

Nah ... let's just play that one 18 times each. 

[Patch]

48 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

Nah ... let's just play that one 18 times each. 

 

49 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

Nah ... let's just play that one 18 times each. 

Funny. I once took the time to record my scores on each individual hole over a period of time for the course I frequently played. Desert Rose on the east side of Vegas. I don't even remember why I did this. I was probably a "stat freak" during the time I did it. 

[golfintheworld]

11 hours ago, Lihu said:

The way I look at it, someone designed this hole to take driver out of the picture for 99% of golfers, and I see no reason to depart from his intentions? When I stand on that tee box, I'll probably say something like "Oh, crap." just like on many of the holes on this course. There are fairways where you roll OB from a less than perfect tee shot or approach. It's a fun course, but likely designed for strategy.

In Palmer's book about strategy, he plays the hole from green to tee. As I look at it that way, there is no advantage to clearing the last bunker for score. For bragging rights (if that's the bet) ok. 

BTW, I would never have said that in High School or College.  or in my 30's 

Edited March 15, 2017 by golfintheworld
misspelled

[RandallT]

10 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

Nah ... let's just play that one 18 times each. 

Yes! Play it all 3 ways, 6 times each. Twelve of you so that's 216 data points. 

Question answered! Lock the thread.