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On Tour - how much is skill, how much is luck?


tuffluck
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This question stems from something unrelated to golf.  A person I'm pretty close to just got his "big break" in Hollywood, which occurred due to a series of obscenely lucky and fortunate turn of events that no person in this lifetime will I ever meet that could replicate.  I think he is good at what he is doing, but I do not think he is great.  I think he has been astronomically lucky.

Well it made me think about the number of people in showbiz that try and do not succeed.  Some of them are probably better than this guy I know, but missed the lucky break or opportunity.  It just made me wonder if other entertainment venues have the same results.  I love golf but know that I'm not ever going to be Tiger Woods; but I'm not an actor either and think I could probably star alongside George Clooney in a movie and make out alright.  At least the embarrassment would be significantly less than playing against Tiger in a round of golf. :P

Nevertheless, I wonder how many golfers out there are really good--like so good they could beat a Jason Dufner or a Zach Johnson 50% of the time--that will never be on Tour because they just haven't had the right stroke of luck, pun intended.  Thoughts?

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Of course. Thing everyone is aware of it.

Luck, skill, who you know, who you blow, good business, have a personality most others don't, persistence.. and so on.

Millions of people in the world.. these [actor/athlete/etc] spots have to be filled by someone. So.

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I think golf is one of a few sports where there is virtually no luck involved.  Anybody with the money and handicap can sign up for US Open, or Q-School, or try to Monday qualify for events, etc.  You don't need to be "discovered" like an actor or musician.  I think the same is true for other individual sports like Tennis or bowling also.

Team sports, on the other hand, are a little more like your acting example in that there is some luck involved in getting "noticed" by a coach, recruiter, scout, etc.

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I think making it in pro golf is mostly skill. Sure, there's some luck involved (peaking at the right times, etc.), but the fact of the matter is if you play well you will move up the ranks.

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There may be some luck involved with acting but from the few people I know in the business (no one famous) it's more about who you know and how you look.

Success in any field requires at least a little bit of luck.   Even today during the BMW, I saw two drives from two different golfers hit the same guy sitting around the green.  If someone wasn't sitting in that exact spot who knows where the ball would have ended up.  The guys in Q School are all talented golfers but those who make it through might handle pressure a little better or got a little lucky.

Luck is not a substitute for hard work but I don't mind an assist from luck every now and then.

Joe Paradiso

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Golf scores are objective.

There is no luck involved.

People can get lucky, but they don't get where they are in sports like golf through luck.

A 65 is a 65.

Some people say George Clooney is a good actor. Some say he's there because of his looks. Others may not find him attractive.

Britney Speers woudn't be where she would if she looked the way she does now 10 years ago.

The best guitar player in the world isn't going to get a gig with the hippest young band in the world if he is balding and 55 years old.

But a 65 is a 65 is a 65.

There is noone out there who coul be beat Jason Duffner or Zach Johnson half the time that you haven't heard of.

In the race of life, always back self-interest. At least you know it's trying.

 

 

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Originally Posted by Shorty

Golf scores are objective.

There is no luck involved.

People can get lucky, but they don't get where they are in sports like golf through luck.

A 65 is a 65.

Some people say George Clooney is a good actor. Some say he's there because of his looks. Others may not find him attractive.

Britney Speers woudn't be where she would if she looked the way she does now 10 years ago.

The best guitar player in the world isn't going to get a gig with the hippest young band in the world if he is balding and 55 years old.

But a 65 is a 65 is a 65.

There is noone out there who coul be beat Jason Duffner or Zach Johnson half the time that you haven't heard of.

I agree with this.

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It's all about skill in golf.  Sure there are lucky and unlucky bounces.............but it takes skill to qualify and have lasting power on tour.  The well known players we all know with long PGA tour careers are there so long because they're best in the world at what they do.

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No such thing as luck in general. All things happen for a reason. Somethings work out better at times than other times.Either you hit the mark and make the putt or miss hit and the does exactly what it was supposed to do. If it hits a tree and bounces into the fairway, it is because you didn't hit it just a little more to the side that would have bounced it out of bounds. No luck just cause and effect.

"My ball is on top of a rock in the hazard, do I get some sort of relief?"

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I think the luck part is involved in being seen or recognized.  Your skill will be what they remember but you can't control who shows up when, if they just happen to catch that horrible stretch you had or that amazing stretch you had.  Sure, the score is objective but almost everyone needs that lucky break..however big or small.

My philosophy on golf "We're not doing rocket science, here."

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Originally Posted by Shorty

Golf scores are objective.

There is no luck involved.

People can get lucky, but they don't get where they are in sports like golf through luck.

A 65 is a 65.

Some people say George Clooney is a good actor. Some say he's there because of his looks. Others may not find him attractive.

Britney Speers woudn't be where she would if she looked the way she does now 10 years ago.

The best guitar player in the world isn't going to get a gig with the hippest young band in the world if he is balding and 55 years old.

But a 65 is a 65 is a 65.

There is noone out there who coul be beat Jason Duffner or Zach Johnson half the time that you haven't heard of.

This pretty much.

I live in LA as well and know people in the industry.  Some of making it as an actor is definitely luck, but I think a lot of people are bitter and call luck all the skills outside what's actually needed to be an incredibly good film actor that are required to "make it".  Some part of making it is of course acting ability, screen presence, bringing out the best in other actors, all the stuff that actually matters in making a movie or TV show.  And of course a lot of making it is what you look like, either being incredibly hot (man or woman) or being sort of distinctive looking in a way that's not hot but not TOO hard to look at (easier for a man but not impossible for a woman), unless you get lucky and make it as a character actor whose roles are always the man/woman who's hard to look at.  But looks and some modicum of acting ability won't get you starring roles.  This city is FULL of very hot ex-wannabes who don't act any worse than do a lot of actors and actresses in crap blockbusters.

From what I've gathered, for a lot of people making it is more related to skill essentially as a hustler.  Can you weasel your way into face time with the right people and make the kind of impression that gets you calls later while being able to read through enough of the LA bulls**t style that you're not always strung along or pegging your hopes on some BS someone with some vague influence somewhere in the industry said and you're not trying to hustle other hustlers who couldn't actually get you the opportunities you want if their life depended on it (if you're a kid showing up in LA hoping to get famous, most of the people you'll meet who claim otherwise will be in that category).  If I wanted to be an actor and had friends made it who pretty much everyone acknowledged I was better than on stage/screen but who were much better hustlers than I and made it happen for themselves, then I could see being bitter.  But that's just how it is.

Anyway, back to golf.  It's only luck at an individual tournament.  No one plays their absolute best every round.  There's variance in how everyone plays.  Sure sometimes a guy who's a pretty marginal pro will get "lucky" and string together 4 days that are WAY better than he normally shoots and win a random tournament.  But there's no luck in getting into the top 50 or top 100 world golf rankings.

Like Shorty said, consistently shooting sub-par rounds on PGA or Euro Tour setups is 0% luck.

Matt

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None of that actor stuff is luck.  Smoozing(and picking the right people to sleep with) is skill .

Everything in life is a combo. Sure guys like Tiger and Rory don't need breaks to stay on tour. But the guys 100-300 are pretty interchangeable and luck matters a lot in sustaining your career.  The payouts are really top heavy (A top 3 placing is worth more than making 10 cuts and finishing 40+). Having 4 good rounds in a row is part skill and part luck. Not getting injuried is part skill/part luck. Having 9 guys in front of you drop out so you can win the PGA tour is all luck.

Quote:

Like Shorty said, consistently shooting sub-par rounds on PGA or Euro Tour setups is 0% luck.

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Originally Posted by Paradox

I think the luck part is involved in being seen or recognized.  Your skill will be what they remember but you can't control who shows up when, if they just happen to catch that horrible stretch you had or that amazing stretch you had.  Sure, the score is objective but almost everyone needs that lucky break..however big or small.

You don't need to be seen or recognized.

If you score well how could people not be aware of you?

Someone might not watch you hole out from 200 metres or bomb a couple of drives, but the score is what they can't ignore or can't miss, if it's any good.

In the race of life, always back self-interest. At least you know it's trying.

 

 

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Originally Posted by Shorty

You don't need to be seen or recognized.

If you score well how could people not be aware of you?

Someone might not watch you hole out from 200 metres or bomb a couple of drives, but the score is what they can't ignore or can't miss, if it's any good.

It could help, say you're a +2 or 3, playing mini tour events, monday qualifiers etc, and you're strapped for cash. If you're lucky enough to play with someone rich with money to throw around, and he's impressed with you're play - which, given we're talking about a mini tour player, i imagine he probably would be -, he could sponsor and fund your play and expenses for a few months. This financial freedom could make all the difference, this goes the same for people born into well off families e.g Dad's a member at a country club, introduces you young, correctly fitted clubs, good instruction etc. All because you got lucky.

Obviously though, like you say, you've still got to shoot the score, and that's 99% skill. Other 1% being lucky bounces, lip in's...

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I don't think it's a coincidence that the more highly skilled/talented people are, the luckier they are as well.

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I don't know about show biz, but I have been lucky this summer. I am going to have a story about me and my woodworking in the Tampa bay times here in a week or so. and I have made a few more sales this year. Some of this stuff feels like luck to me, but I know if I had not spent the last 3 years getting out and joining ww clubs in the area, and taking part in the ukulele club locally I would not have gotten the spot in the paper.

I think golf is the same... every once in a while I will get a bounce that is lucky, but I am just as likely to get a bad bounce, and usually the lucky one is to even things out after 3 or 4 bad ones.

However when I am hitting the ball well and hitting irons on good lines and such, I am more likely to get a good bounce, catch a ridge and have my ball funneled to the hole, or have my tee shot catch a mound or ridge or down slope and give me a better angle or shorter shot to the green... golf is all relative. the better you hit it, the better you will score. I think of it this way, some days I will be a little off and every shot will hit the edge of the green and bounce out and into a bunker or rough, if I hit it a little better the next it will bounce in and toward the middle of the green....

The pro's play a game I am not familiar with.. I try to hit tee shots to one side or the other, and sometimes I try to shape a shot when necessary, but most of the time I shoot at the center of the green, or to the safe side of the pin... the pro's can go for it because they have put the work in, and in most situations know where the ball is going...  this allows them to take a closer look at the course and know where those special bounces and stuff are, and hopefully take advantage... me I have to get lucky.

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IMHO, golf is skill that can only be obtained through hard work.  In a round of golf, you might get some lucky breaks, but the score is objective, it is what it is.  You don't get to reduce your score because you made a good swing but the ball hit a rock and bounced bad for you.  You might get a lucky break in your career(see John Daly winning the PGA at Crooked Stick), but you don't get a PGA Tour card because you have a nice swing.

Again, IMHO, I'm sure there are some top amateurs out there that could give some guys on tour a run for their money on a given day, but 99 out of 100 days I think the Pros would smoke them.

Craig 

Yeah, wanna make 14 dollars the hard way?

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