The Stats Behind a Scratch Golfer

[JetFan1983]

I've been enjoy the tour related news from GolfMonthly a lot lately, but they appear to have lots of interesting non-tour related articles too. This one that they posted today I thought could make for some good discussion.

The Stats Behind A Scratch Golfer | Golf Monthly

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How do scratch golfers compile their rounds? Take a look through the data...

Some stats that I thought were interesting to see:

Average driving distance: 259 yards

Greens in regulations: 56% (10.08 per round)

The data comes from Arccos Golf. 

Sample Size: 540 million shots, 11.5 million rounds

 

Certainly it's not surprising to see these numbers, but it's nice to see what they are given this is such an enormous sample. 

[Shindig]

Very exciting article, thank you for sharing.  I have a few thoughts.

* I'm thrilled about the average driving distance being not a huge amount more than mine.  My driver performance average (ShotScope, small sample size of four rounds, all in July) is 222 yards.  It wasn't that long ago that I was surprised whenever I'd see over 205 yards for driver average (or over 210 if I manually computed something like ShotScope's performance average from GG stats;  and I was really only discarding poor shots, not great ones, when doing that.  I guess there's some aspects of my inconsistency I'm very fond of 🙂 ).  I know summer adds some distance (or at least I think it does), but so does improved swinging and the exercise I'm doing.  

Okay, yes I know that 259 is a huge amount more than 222, because 37 yards is quite a bit.  That's like moving up a little more than a full tee box at my favorite course.   But I feel 259 average is probably more achievable for me than, say, 275 yards.  Of course you know if I ever average 260 yards off the tee I'll want more.

* GIR.  I regularly hit 5-6 GIR on a course where, as much as I love it, I'm hitting hybrids and woods into most par-4s and par-3s from the tees we use for tournaments (and three par-4s aren't reachable for me in regulation without an outlier-long tee shot).  When I play the same course one tee up, I'm hitting 8-9 GIR.  

And distance is something I'm working actively to improve.  I know it's important.  And if I'm playing this well on full swing with a distance disadvantage, I imagine there's some improvement that can come.  

* I don't find one-putt or two-putt statistics to be that meaningful.  I do find three-putt statistics more meaningful.  I view one- and two-putt statistics to be more approach than putting.  But of course we know better players separate themselves with approach shots.

* I am surprised to see birdies averaging over 2 per round.  I would expect that number to be lower.  I would bet the majority of these are on par-5s.  The PGA Tour average birdies per round is something like 3.5, isn't it?

* I am not surprised to see doubles averaging under one per round.  I have really come around to understanding just how much double avoidance is a key.  A few weeks ago, for only the third time in my life, I had a round with nothing worse than bogey.  I shot an 87, but I was still very happy with that score because of the double avoidance.  And I feel like that 87 was about the highest I could have shot that day.  

[DeadMan]

Interesting article, thanks @JetFan1983. Paints a picture of scratch golfers playing pretty boring golf - a lot of 2 putt pars, getting up and down a decent but not eye popping amount, etc. I think one stat that's missing and I'm curious about is the number of penalty shots a scratch player takes per round. I'm guessing it's an average of around 0.5 a round, but maybe it's more. 

In my experience, scratch players and plus players have really solid, boring games. They don't seem that flashy, but they'll shoot -2 to +2 without you noticing. Just boring, good golf.

[Shindig]

4 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

Interesting article, thanks @JetFan1983. Paints a picture of scratch golfers playing pretty boring golf - a lot of 2 putt pars, getting up and down a decent but not eye popping amount, etc. I think one stat that's missing and I'm curious about is the number of penalty shots a scratch player takes per round. I'm guessing it's an average of around 0.5 a round, but maybe it's more. 

In my experience, scratch players and plus players have really solid, boring games. They don't seem that flashy, but they'll shoot -2 to +2 without you noticing. Just boring, good golf.

Personally, I find my tee shot in play, GIR, putt to tap in range, tap in pars to be quite exciting, but I understand why that's described as "boring golf"  

To your question, I would bet the penalties are low -- with very few double bogeys per round and also very few birdies, it's unlikely they're making "resort birdies" after a penalty, which would be the only way to avoid a double bogey after an O.B. or lost ball.  The one-shot penalties are less of an issue, but they're also more easily avoided, and a scratch player is probably better able to plan to successfully avoid water.

[billchao]

1 hour ago, Shindig said:

Okay, yes I know that 259 is a huge amount more than 222, because 37 yards is quite a bit. 

It's also a bit more because it's average driving distance off all par 4s and par 5s, not performance average of the driver, so you're comparing apples to oranges a little.

[Shindig]

20 minutes ago, billchao said:

It's also a bit more because it's average driving distance off all par 4s and par 5s, not performance average of the driver, so you're comparing apples to oranges a little.

That's a very good point.  My ShotScope driver average (again, small sample size of four rounds) is 206 yards.  But there are some real stinkers in there.  But there are probably some stinkers in the 259 average for scratch players.

Now I need to find an article like this for 8 handicap players.

[jshots]

23 minutes ago, Shindig said:

That's a very good point.  My ShotScope driver average (again, small sample size of four rounds) is 206 yards.  But there are some real stinkers in there.  But there are probably some stinkers in the 259 average for scratch players.

Now I need to find an article like this for 8 handicap players.

Just for you Shindig I pulled these off my Arccos app set to 8 hdcp target:
 

AVERAGE PUTTS PER ROUND

• 1 putts: 3.9
• 2 putts: 11.7
• 3 putts+: 2.4
• Putts / Hole: 1.8
• Putts / GIR: 2.1
  
  AROUND THE GREEN

• Average distance to pin 0-25 yards: 16ft
• Up-and-down 0-25 yards: 40%
• Average distance to pin 25-50 yards: 24ft
• Up-and-down 25-50 yards: 21%

BUNKERS

• Average distance to pin 0-25 yards: 22ft
• Up-and-down 0-25 yards: 24%
• Average distance to pin 25-50 yards: 29ft
• Up-and-down 25-50 yards: 16%

APPROACH

• Greens in regulation: 40%
• GIR approaches: 30ft
• All approaches: 60ft

DRIVING

• Tee shot distance: 237 yards  (by the way in Arccos this is ALL tee shots, not solely driver)
• Fairways hit: 47%

SCORING

• Birdies: 0.9
• Par: 7.7
• Bogeys: 7.2
• Doubles+: 2.3

 

[billchao]

1 hour ago, Shindig said:

But there are probably some stinkers in the 259 average for scratch players.

There are also shots with fairway woods, hybrids, and irons, which I think you’re missing from what I posted earlier.

@jshots points it out, here:

1 hour ago, jshots said:

(by the way in Arccos this is ALL tee shots, not solely driver)

Shot Scope works the same way, @Shindig. Average driving distance is the average of all tee shots on par 4s and par 5s. My average driving distance is ~11 yards shorter than my average distance with the driver. There are plenty of holes I regularly play that call for less than driver off the tee.

[JetFan1983]

That's a shame that the data for driving average includes irons off the tee. Thanks for including the data for an 8.0 @jshots that's really interesting to see.

One positive though is the driving average by age for scratch golfers:

Again, this is for all clubs used to tee off with on par 4s and 5s, but it's nice knowing a 65 year old scratch golfer is averaging "only" 238 yards. I'm sure when you're hitting that distance as a scratch player that you're almost never taking a penalty stroke off the tee. 

[Phil McGleno]

5 hours ago, DeadMan said:

Interesting article, thanks @JetFan1983. Paints a picture of scratch golfers playing pretty boring golf - a lot of 2 putt pars, getting up and down a decent but not eye popping amount, etc. I think one stat that's missing and I'm curious about is the number of penalty shots a scratch player takes per round. I'm guessing it's an average of around 0.5 a round, but maybe it's more. 

In my experience, scratch players and plus players have really solid, boring games. They don't seem that flashy, but they'll shoot -2 to +2 without you noticing. Just boring, good golf.

Sounds like that.

[Shindig]

4 hours ago, billchao said:

Shot Scope works the same way, @Shindig. Average driving distance is the average of all tee shots on par 4s and par 5s. My average driving distance is ~11 yards shorter than my average distance with the driver. There are plenty of holes I regularly play that call for less than driver off the tee.

Yikes.  Yeah, my average and p-average are only with driver (both because I went to performance > clubs and because I've yet to hit less than driver off the tee on a par-4 or par-5 since getting this system... and I can't think of a course I play regularly where I would do that.  But I'm still 53 yards short average (and a bit less if we use p-avg, but not a huge amount) of that. 

I really appreciate @jshots's post about the 8 handicap stats.  Between that and the article, I have a few things I need to write a few down and tape near my weights...

[TourSpoon]

I am scratch in the bunkers and hitting fairways (according to the stats provided). The hitting greens part is where I fall down (and short game lately) and has been the subject of my practice the last 3 weeks. I track my stats, I don't think they tell the whole story for any given round, but they do show useful trends over time. I can tell you the key stat in the article is hitting ten greens per round on average. Giving decent ability, the golfer that has the skillset to hit 10 most likely will be even par on those ten holes or better. With the 2 birdie average (let's give them 2 birdies and one bogey 3 putt), there are 8 holes left that I would say 4/8 are pars. That puts our golfer at 3 over which is probably 1 off scratch giving a par 72 with a decent rating and slope.  Good article with a lot of stats to compare and think about over time (ie: stats tell more of a story with a greater sample size). 

I have maintained in the past, that if I can hit at least 9 greens, I am looking at a 75-77 all day long. Hitting greens to me is the key because you are most likely hitting more fairways and avoiding trouble, when you hit more greens your missed greens tend to be closer to the fringe, and you are playing smart, confident golf. Now if golf wasn't so dang hard, we would all be scratch! 

[JetFan1983]

Golf Monthly followed up with an article that includes the stats for an 18-handicap if anyone wants to see the comparisons. 

Scratch Vs 18 Handicap - How The Stats Compare | Golf Monthly

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Data from Arccos Golf shows how and where scratch players make up a shot per hole on 18-handicappers

TLDR: Scratch golfers are better at everything compared to an 18 😄

[Shindig]

20 minutes ago, JetFan1983 said:

TLDR: Scratch golfers are better at everything compared to an 18 😄

Are you sure?  Because when I was an 18 handicapper, I was pretty sure the only things keeping me from being scratch was my poor mental game and a cold putter.

It's too bad I didn't get into single digits back when that was true.  It's much harder now that I know better.  

[iacas]

[Big Lex]

On 7/22/2022 at 5:11 PM, TourSpoon said:

 I can tell you the key stat in the article is hitting ten greens per round on average...if I can hit at least 9 greens, I am looking at a 75-77 all day long. 

The simulator is finally pounding this through my cement skull. While I read this many times over the years, in a variety of places including LSW, I never tracked stats and never really focused on this. Then I started with Arccos, but still didn't always pay close enough heed or attention to the GIR stats per se. 

Simulator rounds are enlightening, though. I think maybe it's the fact that you can play several holes in a much shorter period of time, and so it's "easier" or more obvious what is going wrong. I used to think the problem was I didn't get up and down enough. Having, say, 3 holes in a row where I make bogey despite solid, centerface hits (but offline enough to miss the greens) is maddening. 

I used to think my putting was horrible. My putting, according to Arccos, is the part of my game that needs the least work.