NCAA Football 2023

[DeadMan]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:20 AM, saevel25 said:

am predicting THE GAME to be 23 to 16.

👀

[saevel25]

18 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

👀

Yep, kind of surprised the offenses moved the ball that well. Both were #1 and #2 in stop rate. 

[StuM]

UM- OSU was a good game, IMO the early interception was ultimately the game loser.

Bern a lot of good close games today.

[klineka]

Hats off to Michigan. Can't lose the turnover battle by 2 plus a missed FG on the road and expect to win. 

[saevel25]

UGH, other OSU fans drive me nuts. We are now back in the realm of hearing, "FIRE RYAN DAY!" 

The guy is 56-7 since being name interim head coach and finally head coach in 2019. His only bad loss is to a meh Oregon team in 2021. The rest have been to losses to the #3, #1, #5, #3, #1, and #3 team in the country. He 

OSU Fans are like, FIRE HIM. I ask any OSU fan, look at the list of head coaches out there and pick on you would want. We will exclude Kirby Smart and Nick Saban. Sorry, but they are not leaving. I do not think even if you offer Smart 2x his current salary you could pry him away from Georgia. 

Who is next, Swinney? Well his past 3 teams have been bad. How about Riley? Well, he doesn't look to be any better than Day at USC. The guy has the #1 pick at QB next year and he loses to teams he shouldn't lose to. Who is next? Do we want to get Bryan Kelly? Really? He might be the next best on the list. He didn't win much at the highest level at ND. Jimbo Fisher? He just got fired at Texas A&M and looks to done. Luke Fickell? Maybe the only choice because he played for OSU. He hasn't proven he can build or run a big time program. Wisconsin is a step above Cincinnati, but it's still a few steps below OSU. 

How about going to the NFL? Some are saying, go throw money at Mike Vrabel at Tennessee. I am not sure he wants to be a college football head coach.  Still, do you give up a coach that wins 88% of his games, is continually recruiting at a top 5 program pace? 

I am not sure this obsession with beating UM is healthy for the program and for their chances of playing for national championships. Also, the landscape is changing. Now, with a 12 team playoff, getting rid of divisions in the B1G, I think the way Ryan Day runs his program might work out better. Guess what, if we had a 12 team playoff from the beginning, OSU is the only team in the nation that would have made it every year. 

If you give me two scenarios, over the next 10 years...

1. A losing record versus UM, but 3 national championships. 
2. A wining record versus UM, but 0 national championships. 

I would take option 1, because NC matters more than being UM. Sorry, it does. This sport is not name, beat UM every year. It's win NCs. 

 

[iacas]

7 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

1. A losing record versus UM, but 3 national championships. 
2. A wining record versus UM, but 0 national championships. 

I would take option 1, because NC matters more than being UM. Sorry, it does. This sport is not name, beat UM every year. It's win NCs. 

Well no shit you would, but what if it's:

3. A losing record versus UM, and 0 national championships.

That seems WAY more likely than 3 national championships, especially since OSU has won exactly one in the last 20 years.

[Vinsk]

OSU continues to feast on way under matched opponents only to come up short against top 5 power teams. Whether or not that’s Day’s fault is hard to say. ND has lost 3 including a loss to Louisville. PSU is really kinda meh. OSU literally squeaked by ND. I know B1G fans love to run numbers on teams like Rutgers, Maryland and make them out to be worthy opponents. They’re not. And OSU had some dodgy performances against a handful of their cupcakes. It’s probably best they lost to MI. They would be rather embarrassed by Georgia would hurt Day just as much.🙂

[saevel25]

44 minutes ago, iacas said:

That seems WAY more likely than 3 national championships, especially since OSU has won exactly one in the last 20 years.

The point is, there are OSU fans who, in that hypothetical would take #2. It is not an insignificant potation of the fanbase. They hate UM so much they would rather go 9-3 every year as long as one of those 9 wins is versus UM. There is a reason why after a 11-1 season, if that 1 loss versus UM there is rumblings of should the coach be fired. 

17 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

OSU continues to feast on way under matched opponents only to come up short against top 5 power teams.

EVERY elite teams feasts on bad teams. 

18 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Whether or not that’s Day’s fault is hard to say. ND has lost 3 including a loss to Louisville. PSU is really kinda meh. OSU literally squeaked by ND.

This is where W-L also doesn't tell the whole story. 

PSU only losses are to two top-5 teams, in competitive games. Sorry, but that take is just wrong. It is because there are no complete teams in college football. the differences in college football are so wide. You say PSU is meh, there are 133 teams in FBS, Penn State is in the top 15%. So, yea being a few standard deviations above the average team is meh. 

This is where metrics matter as well.  OSU, ND, PSU, and UM have all been top 15 teams all year, and for two of them easily top 10 team all year, and arguably top 5 teams all year. 

[iacas]

7 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Penn State is in the top 15%. So, yea being a few standard deviations above the average team is meh.

😉

---

Also…

[StuM]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

UGH, other OSU fans drive me nuts. We are now back in the realm of hearing, "FIRE RYAN DAY!" 

I say "Keep Day".  Best coaches in the world can, and will, occasionally lose.

I feel the loss this year is attributable to a single early-game turnover and I'm not going to fire a good coach over 1 mistake by a player, It was not a coaching mistake, it was a on-field error.  It happens and UM earned the win.  OSU came close to overcoming the deficit but with UM not making mistakes it was not to be.

[ChetlovesMer]

6 hours ago, saevel25 said:

EVERY elite teams feasts on bad teams. 

This. 

Just as a data point. I was born and raised in Ch!cago. Went to PubIic SchooI there in case you didn't know. 

Anyway, I remember well when the Jordan Bulls lost their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs to the Detroit Pistons. There were screams all over Ch!cago to trade Jordan. "He can't get past the Pistons!" ... "He's good in the regular season. He can't win in the play-offs!" ... "He feasts on inferior opponents but will never win the big game." 

Facts didn't matter. Bulls fans hated the Pistons. The Jordan Bulls were eliminated three years in a row from the play-offs by the Pistons. Clearly they needed to get rid of Michael Jordan. 

Six championships in nine years later, those same people shouting to trade Jordan were really REALLY quiet. 

 

[dennyjones]

Ryan Day is a very good coach.   There wouldn't be too many that could replace him.     I believe he's good for Ohio. 

 

If the school can't find a replacement, John Harbaugh would be an option!  🤣

[DeadMan]

18 hours ago, saevel25 said:

1. A losing record versus UM, but 3 national championships. 
2. A wining record versus UM, but 0 national championships. 

Even with the new playoff format, I'm not sure OSU will win national titles without beating Michigan at least once. They're going to face each other once in the regular season, and there's the opportunity for rematches in both the Big Ten championship game and in the playoffs. I doubt we'll see 3 games in a year, but I think 2 is pretty likely. OSU is going to have to win some of those to win the national title.

I think Day is a decent coach, but I'm really not sure he's a great one. With the talent OSU has, it's not hard to win 10/11 games every year. They have a recruiting advantage in every game they play until the playoffs. The thing that concern me with Day are his conservatism and his talent development. He punted on 4th and 1 at midfield - that is a horrendous decision in this day and age of college football.  The end of the first half decision to take a 50 yard FG instead of trying to convert a 4th and 2 to get a shorter FG (or possibly even drive for a TD) cost his team 3 points. Even James Franklin is getting those decisions right now.

And then talent development has been below par for the past couple of years. In 2021, OSU got bullied up front, particularly on defense. That front seven was terrible and poorly coached. In 2022, the defense had to play super aggressive to avoid getting grinded down the field every drive. That led to the explosive plays. And when they tried to make Michigan grind them down the field, they got an 8 minute TD drive on their face. This year, their OL and and QB are weak spots for the team. If you take away an all-time talent at WR, this offense is bad for OSU standards. Given OSU's recruiting, they should have stars at every position every year. They should be at the talent level of a Georgia. They aren't. The thing that got Michigan to be better than OSU was developing talent, particularly on both lines, with worse recruits. 

Is it enough to fire Day? Probably not. The odds are that OSU gets a worse coach. It's hard to get to where Day's record is. Right now, though, I'm not sure that Day is a national title caliber coach.

[klineka]

25 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

He punted on 4th and 1 at midfield - that is a horrendous decision in this day and age of college football.  The end of the first half decision to take a 50 yard FG instead of trying to convert a 4th and 2 to get a shorter FG (or possibly even drive for a TD) cost his team 3 points.

Yup I was surprised at both of those decisions but especially the first one. You have to be able to rely on your guys to get you 1 yard. 

I also don't think he should/will get fired.

I am looking forward to the removal of divisions within the big 10, I've always found it a bit odd that more often than not the conference title game didn't have the two best teams in the conference.

[ChetlovesMer]

6 minutes ago, klineka said:

I am looking forward to the removal of divisions within the big 10, I've always found it a bit odd that more often than not the conference title game didn't have the two best teams in the conference.

This

[saevel25]

13 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

Even with the new playoff format, I'm not sure OSU will win national titles without beating Michigan at least once.

In a 12-team playoff and going away with divisions, the entire perspective of The Game has changed. It no longer is the gate keeper game for these two teams to make a playoff, previously go to the Rose Bowl. 

15 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

They're going to face each other once in the regular season, and there's the opportunity for rematches in both the Big Ten championship game and in the playoffs. I doubt we'll see 3 games in a year, but I think 2 is pretty likely. OSU is going to have to win some of those to win the national title.

I never said not winning, I said losing record. So, they could go let's say 3-7 versus UM and win one or more NC. 

16 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

He punted on 4th and 1 at midfield - that is a horrendous decision in this day and age of college football.  The end of the first half decision to take a 50 yard FG instead of trying to convert a 4th and 2 to get a shorter FG (or possibly even drive for a TD) cost his team 3 points. Even James Franklin is getting those decisions right now.

The conservative nature is the biggest issue. It made no sense to kick that FG there. 

It didn't really cost them 3 points, because 4 and 2 are not guaranteed. The odds are they probably have a better shot at converting that 4 and 2 versus making that FG. Apparently, the kicker was making a lot of 50+ yard FG in practice, and he had the helping wind. Yea, in that situation, go for it. 

18 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

They have a recruiting advantage in every game they play until the playoffs. The thing that concerns me with Day are his conservatism and his talent development.

With regards to talent development, the biggest issue is defensive recruiting from 2019, 2020, and 2021 at the linebacker and DB positions. In addition, the recruiting at the O-Line position during the same time-frame. 

When your ranking recruiting is propped up by a top 5 QB, and 3-4 top 10 WR. All your 5 stars are in two positions, it makes the overall number look good, but the teams are not balanced. That is on Day, but the past two classes have been more balanced. 

On offense they develop talent really well. It is to be seen if the current O-Line coach can develop to an elite level, but we lost 3 NFL draft O-Lineman, and the recruiting deficiencies of the previous O-Line coach (due to health issues) has hurt OSU's depth there. If you follow recruiting, O-Line projection from high school is very difficult. There are years where the Alabama O-Line is just rock solid, and other years where their QB's are running for their lives down there. 

Defensive development has been lacking, mostly at the DB and LB level. They showed great improvement this year. I feel like Day is moving in the right direction here. What hurt him was losing Hafley to Boston College a year after hiring him as a DC. Then his DC staff was in shambles for two years because he was trying to keep everything together instead of making the hard decision to just do what is best for the program. He should have gone out and found a dude instead of promoting from within. Again, on him, but it cost him two seasons. 

If this defense existed last year, with the 2022 offense, they probably win a NC. 2022 defense, they had a scoring defense of 32 against ranked opponents. 2023 defense had a scoring defense of 18 versus ranked opponents. A vast improvement. Imagine a scoring margin of 18 more points in favor of OSU versus ranked opponents. 

38 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

The thing that got Michigan to be better than OSU was developing talent, particularly on both lines, with worse recruits.

For 2021 that is the case. In 2022, I felt like the lines were a push. The biggest issue was gap soundness by the LB and DB's in 2022. I felt like the lines were pretty equal in 2023. 

For me, I hope that their staff stays the same for one more year. I want to see this team next year with all those players having another entire year of coaching consistency. I think they have a really good staff in place. 

15 minutes ago, klineka said:

I am looking forward to the removal of divisions within the big 10, I've always found it a bit odd that more often than not the conference title game didn't have the two best teams in the conference.

Yep, and this is why I think OSU fans need to just get with the program that the OSU v UM game is going to mean less. Their brain is going to break when they play twice like every other year. If every game is split, who has claim to what? It is time to move forward and treat this game like Alabama v Georgia where the only thing matter is winning a NC. 

This is why I think this helps OSU. I think OSU fans had this unhealthy fanatical obsession over beating UM than UM does. I think OSU Fans HATE UM more than UM hates OSU. I've heard this from a few people who cover UM professionally. With the meaning of The Game changing, it might relieve the pressure of The Game from Day. I think he would figure things out if we continued with a 4-team playoff and divisions in the B1G. I am glad to see the change. 

[StuM]

4 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

They're going to face each other once in the regular season, and there's the opportunity for rematches in both the Big Ten championship game and in the playoffs. I doubt we'll see 3 games in a year, but I think 2 is pretty likely.

 

20 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

In a 12-team playoff and going away with divisions, the entire perspective of The Game has changed. It no longer is the gate keeper game for these two teams to make a playoff, previously go to the Rose Bowl. 

The odds of a "Rematch" are more likely in BIG10 Conference play then in the CFP playoffs and if this year were under the new format it could be UM-OSU playing each other "Back-to-Back". With BIG10 Conference with records being UM 9-0, OSU 8-1 and Penn State/Iowa at 7-2.

The odds of a rematch in the CFP Playoff is less.  Below is a hypothetical bracket based on 2022 rankings with UM ranked #2 and OSU ranked #6.  The earliest they could have met is in the Semifinal thus OSU would need 2 wins and UM 1 to result in a rematch.  If they "Split" the BIG10 meetings and each were 10-1 after conference playoffs then odds are they would be closely ranked for the CFP and I think that would decrease the odds of a 3rd match between them.

I do not see the CFP Committee wanting to see an All BIG10 Final and I suspect they would align the seeds to prevent that.  But that would be "TV Ratings" dictating which in theory should not enter the discussion, but I suspect it would.

 

 

[saevel25]

10 minutes ago, StuM said:

I do not see the CFP Committee wanting to see an All BIG10 Final and I suspect they would align the seeds to prevent that.  But that would be "TV Ratings" dictating which in theory should not enter the discussion, but I suspect it would.

Not sure how much they can do when some of the seeding stuff might be out of the committees' hands. Like automatic qualifiers for conference champs. I do not think they care about it. 

A fun graph...

Usually, success rates are the offense scored, on first down did you achieve 50% or more of the line to go, on 2nd down did you achieve at least 70% of the line to go, and on 3rd/4th down did you achieve 100% of the yards to go. 

The hidden yards in this game were OSU averaging -2.5 relative to the 25-yard start line for kickoffs. UM starting on average +11 yards. Even though OSU outgained UM, they had more field to go. 

Some fun EPA stuff (basically the strokes gained of football). 

I think what is missing in these stats, and I wish someone would do this like they do for baseball, but stats for high leverage situations. Even though OSU was better on 3rd down than UM, it just seemed like on key downs to keep plays alive in the 2nd half, UM was better. Obviously the first INT gave UM the majority of their field position advantage.