The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[RFKFREAK]

83 is not bad. . .

Yeah, but is it good for someone his HC and level?

[Lihu]

I agree, 83 is not bad for a high single digit handicapper. I have never played Pebble nor have I ever been a 3 hdcp but I would think (and could be very wrong) that a 3 would be in the 70s on that course more often than not.

I think you are probably correct, I wouldn't really know either.

Dan McLaughlin @thedanplan

Shot an 83 today from the tips at Pebble to the same pins as yesterday. Could have been lower if I was able to read those greens. #happy

[RandallT]

Dan's Game Today

Dan's current handicap is 3, possibly 4 or 5, based on recent off-season scores not contributing to his official handicap yet (in red).

In 3 full years, Dan has reduced his average score by about 9 strokes (generously, if you look at blue and red curves).

Today, Dan shot an 83 on a course that was rated 74.7/143. Based on his reaction on twitter, he was pleased with that. Per the USGA, a 4 handicap would shoot on average roughly an 82 (3 above his course handicap). So the numbers mostly check out. Good enough anyway. We stipulate that the numbers above reflect his game today.

Dan's Goal

A below-average pro shot 72 on the same conditions in the final round. Coincidentally, Dan is basically shooting to just be a below-average pro. So let's say he is shooting for 72. In fact, let's even say 73 is his target average under similar conditions as today.  Therefore, his score of 83 means he is 10 strokes shy of his goal . Again, just rough numbers.

Can He Get There?

So he has improved about 9 strokes in 3 years, but he needs to improve about 10 strokes in the next 3 years. The curve is shifting toward a plateau, as many intelligent people had predicted. It just gets harder to shave those last strokes.  So the conclusion is:

His scores are not trending in a way that will allow him to achieve his goal.

In reality, he has far less than 3 years, because there will be a lot of time needed to perform at a high level just to be invited to tournaments that would pave the way for him to make a progression to play in a PGA event.

In reality, he will also need to improve more than just 10 strokes to leapfrog the 1000s of players that are already competing at a high level. Edging them out will not work, since he needs to skyrocket up the ranks like Jordan Spieth or something. Time is not his friend, and he'll need to win at lots of levels starting soon.

[Lancer78]

Wow, I was pretty close on my prediction of around 80.

[Shorty]

Yeah, but is it good for someone his HC and level?

It has nothing to do with his handicap or his level.

He thinks he's going to be competing against the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in a couple of years.  And he'll be better than every player on the Asian and Web.Com tour.

Never mind the 16 year olds who are playing off + 3 who would take hie by 15 shots any time any where.

He's a deluded, publicity seeking fool.

He is in his 30s.

The goal  - stated and restated is PGA Tour.

[DrvFrShow]

I think what Shorty is saying is that Dan needs to be playing these courses with scores in the mid 70s as a routine by now.

[Lihu]

I think what Shorty is saying is that Dan needs to be playing these courses with scores in the mid 70s as a routine by now.

He needed to be doing that by the time he was 13 or 14 years old. He needed to be shooting mid to high 60s by 16. It's all about distance, and he just doesn't have the talent (physical build) for it.

[DrvFrShow]

I was talking about courses like Pebble Beach with the slope of 145 at the US Open length 7040 yds. Courses like our local Chambers Bay around a 69.

It's like going for becoming a concert pianist. You're good. You've played some amazing things. The reality hits when you try to play this and realize there are things beyond your ability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rHnrpRVcDM

[Lihu]

I was talking about courses like Pebble Beach with the slope of 145 at the US Open length 7040 yds. Courses like our local Chambers Bay around a 69. It's like going for becoming a concert pianist. You're good. You've played some amazing things. The reality hits when you try to play this and realize there are things beyond your ability: [URL=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rHnrpRVcDM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rHnrpRVcDM[/URL]

So am I, for instance, the course I play on is rated 74.8 at 7228 yards from the tips and there are high school golfers who shoot high 60s and low 70s during tournaments. http://brooksidegc.com/cw-koiner-course-1 Lots of really good players out here.

[HanNL]

It has nothing to do with his handicap or his level.

He thinks he's going to be competing against the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in a couple of years.  And he'll be better than every player on the Asian and Web.Com tour.

Never mind the 16 year olds who are playing off + 3 who would take hie by 15 shots any time any where.

He's a deluded, publicity seeking fool.

He is in his 30s.

The goal  - stated and restated is PGA Tour.

tbh I think his goal was to play a PGA Tour event at least once. Not necessarily competing in the PGA Tour.

[Lihu]

[QUOTE name="Shorty" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/2664#post_1106265"]   It has nothing to do with his handicap or his level. He thinks he's going to be competing against the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in a couple of years.  And he'll be better than every player on the Asian and Web.Com tour. Never mind the 16 year olds who are playing off + 3 who would take hie by 15 shots any time any where. He's a deluded, publicity seeking fool. He is in his 30s.  The goal  - stated and restated is PGA Tour. [/QUOTE] tbh I think his goal was to play a PGA Tour event at least once. Not necessarily competing in the PGA Tour.

To do this, wouldn't he have to beat all the web, Canadian tour, Asian tour, European tour, etc guys to play in a PGA event?

[Shorty]

tbh I think his goal was to play a PGA Tour event at least once. Not necessarily competing in the PGA Tour.

Incorrect.

Anyway - the easiest path for him to do that (if you're happy to call the Masters a PGA Tour event) is to win the U.S.Amateur.

Easy.

Problem solved.

[newtogolf]

tbh I think his goal was to play a PGA Tour event at least once. Not necessarily competing in the PGA Tour.

He could do that by getting a sponsor exemption so I don't believe that was the actual goal.  If he's going to "earn" his way onto the Tour he's going to need to be one of the top players on the web.com tour first.

[RFKFREAK]

It has nothing to do with his handicap or his level. He thinks he's going to be competing against the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in a couple of years.  And he'll be better than every player on the Asian and Web.Com tour. Never mind the 16 year olds who are playing off + 3 who would take hie by 15 shots any time any where. He's a deluded, publicity seeking fool. He is in his 30s.  The goal  - stated and restated is PGA Tour.

Well, my point was that some folks ITT were saying that Dan's score wasn't that bad and my thought was that for what his goal is and for where people feel he should be to successfully complete his goal, would his score yesterday be considered, "good." It appears the answer is no.

[DrvFrShow]

tbh I think his goal was to play a PGA Tour event at least once. Not necessarily competing in the PGA Tour.

Spend $100,000 to compete in one PGA Tour event? So not worth it.

Keep your day job; set up an indoor driving range in your house (yeah it rains a lot); buy a launch monitor or Flightscope; take lessons. Set a goal of becoming a very good amateur golfer.

[Lihu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorty

It has nothing to do with his handicap or his level.

He thinks he's going to be competing against the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in a couple of years.  And he'll be better than every player on the Asian and Web.Com tour.

Never mind the 16 year olds who are playing off + 3 who would take hie by 15 shots any time any where.

He's a deluded, publicity seeking fool.

He is in his 30s.

The goal  - stated and restated is PGA Tour.

Well, my point was that some folks ITT were saying that Dan's score wasn't that bad and my thought was that for what his goal is and for where people feel he should be to successfully complete his goal, would his score yesterday be considered, "good."

It appears the answer is no.

As Randall already outlined, 83 is a decent score for a 4 handicap on that course. EDIT: Calculates to a 6 handicap. He only needs to shoot 2 strokes less about 25% of the time.

It's all based upon the course handicap. For instance, let's say that I shot a 90 on a 74.8 rated course, that would be equivalent to me shooting something like an 80 on something like a 67 rated course.

[RFKFREAK]

As Randall already outlined, 83 is a decent score for a 4 handicap on that course. It's all based upon the course handicap. For instance, let's say that I shot a 90 on a 74.8 rated course, that would be equivalent to me shooting something like an 80 on something like a 67 rated course.

Right, but the overall impression is that for him to get to his goal, he would likely have to be further along and his score didn't indicate that he is where he needs to be.

[Lihu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lihu

As Randall already outlined, 83 is a decent score for a 4 handicap on that course.

It's all based upon the course handicap. For instance, let's say that I shot a 90 on a 74.8 rated course, that would be equivalent to me shooting something like an 80 on something like a 67 rated course.

Right, but the overall impression is that for him to get to his goal, he would likely have to be further along and his score didn't indicate that he is where he needs to be.

This might be true, but he states that he is currently a 3 handicap and he shot an 83 on a difficult course which is not that bad a score for that handicap.

Of course, my son's 16 year old friend shot something in the mid to high 70s, but was something like a 1.7 at the time he shot the score (he's better now). He's not exactly a child prodigy golfer either, there are kids who are far better than him. Thousands of kids who are better.

So, in answer to your other question, Dan currently shoots as well as some 13 to 14 year old kids I know. It will be difficult for him to surpass the high tens of thousands of golfers between him and the PGA tour who are less than half Dan's age.