The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[iacas]

That's right.

And Dan wouldn't know the difference anyway.

He's hangin' with the pros, talking about AimPoint and new wedges.

Job done. May as well put him at 50 in the Order of Merit now. ;-)

If he is, he's not doing it right…

First thing I've noticed about Pebble after 6 holes: it would be great to have a caddy help read these greens. So subtle, can't find a line

— Dan McLaughlin (@thedanplan) February 16, 2015

[newtogolf]

The amateurs had tees in Sunday's final round too. :)

That's why I asked, thanks.

[RFKFREAK]

Is he playing from the pro's tees or the celebrities?

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Dan McLaughlin ‏ @ thedanplan

Most proud moment so far, just parred the 9th at Pebble. Par 4 playing 481 yards today. Beast of a hole.

Del Monte Forest, CA

.

[iacas]

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Dan McLaughlin‏@thedanplan

Most proud moment so far, just parred the 9th at Pebble. Par 4 playing 481 yards today. Beast of a hole.

Del Monte Forest, CA

.

The round can't be going too well for him then.

A low digit player playing a 500-yard par five often expects to make a birdie (they expect to more often than they do, but still…).

[Lihu]

Yeah, it seems like Dan is making a big deal about the "481 yard monster par 4", which I agree is really long and beyond what I can currently play. However, the last few times I've hit that distance it was with a Driver/hybrid albeit nearly perfect drives and hybrid shots.

It appears that they are playing from the longest amateur tees, and not the US Open ones.

Do the pros always play the "US Open" tees whenever they play this course?

[Pretzel]

Yeah, it seems like Dan is making a big deal about the "481 yard monster par 4", which I agree is really long and beyond what I can currently play. However, the last few times I've hit that distance it was with a Driver/hybrid albeit nearly perfect drives and hybrid shots. It appears that they are playing from the longest amateur tees, and not the US Open ones. Do the pros always play the "US Open" tees whenever they play this course?

484 isn't that long. Assuming two solid shots (with a fairway drive), that's no more than driver and a 5/6 option for me. He would be screwed if he even played high school golf. The state tournament had only two par fours of under 440 yards on the whole course...

[iacas]

It appears that they are playing from the longest amateur tees, and not the US Open ones.

The 9th is listed as 466 on http://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard.html .

[Golfingdad]

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Dan McLaughlin‏@thedanplan

Most proud moment so far, just parred the 9th at Pebble. Par 4 playing 481 yards today. Beast of a hole.

Del Monte Forest, CA

.

Yeah, and there is one or two of these, seemingly, every week at a tour stop.

Yeah, it seems like Dan is making a big deal about the "481 yard monster par 4", which I agree is really long and beyond what I can currently play. However, the last few times I've hit that distance it was with a Driver/hybrid albeit nearly perfect drives and hybrid shots.

It appears that they are playing from the longest amateur tees, and not the US Open ones.

Do the pros always play the "US Open" tees whenever they play this course?

No, not quite.  Check out this link:  http://www.pebblebeach.com/golf/pebble-beach-golf-links/yardage-and-ratings  10, 13 and 17 are really the only holes with a significant distance difference.  I believe that more this tournament, they're playing the Blue tees.

484 isn't that long. Assuming two solid shots (with a fairway drive), that's no more than driver and a 5/6 option for me. He would be screwed if he even played high school golf. The state tournament had only two par fours of under 440 yards on the whole course...

Also of note:  The fairway on number 9 slopes down and towards the ocean A LOT.  If you can hit the fairway, it's not going to play 484 because you're going to get a lot of roll on your drive.

[Lihu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lihu

It appears that they are playing from the longest amateur tees, and not the US Open ones.

The 9th is listed as 466 on http://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard.html .

Oh, that's different. A weak drive and decent hybrid for me then . Or a once in a lifetime lucky drive with a downhill hard pan/pavement roll assist and a 52 degree wedge.

[Wittler]

I am really hoping he will post a scorecard. I think it more likely that he will just gloss over the bad holes and focus on the almost birdies...

[Wittler]

Strike that. he apparently is happy with an 83.

[Lihu]

Strike that. he apparently is happy with an 83.

83 is not bad. . .

[Wittler]

I agree, 83 is not bad for a high single digit handicapper. I have never played Pebble nor have I ever been a 3 hdcp but I would think (and could be very wrong) that a 3 would be in the 70s on that course more often than not.

[RFKFREAK]

83 is not bad. . .

Yeah, but is it good for someone his HC and level?

[Lihu]

I agree, 83 is not bad for a high single digit handicapper. I have never played Pebble nor have I ever been a 3 hdcp but I would think (and could be very wrong) that a 3 would be in the 70s on that course more often than not.

I think you are probably correct, I wouldn't really know either.

Dan McLaughlin @thedanplan

Shot an 83 today from the tips at Pebble to the same pins as yesterday. Could have been lower if I was able to read those greens. #happy

[RandallT]

Dan's Game Today

Dan's current handicap is 3, possibly 4 or 5, based on recent off-season scores not contributing to his official handicap yet (in red).

In 3 full years, Dan has reduced his average score by about 9 strokes (generously, if you look at blue and red curves).

Today, Dan shot an 83 on a course that was rated 74.7/143. Based on his reaction on twitter, he was pleased with that. Per the USGA, a 4 handicap would shoot on average roughly an 82 (3 above his course handicap). So the numbers mostly check out. Good enough anyway. We stipulate that the numbers above reflect his game today.

Dan's Goal

A below-average pro shot 72 on the same conditions in the final round. Coincidentally, Dan is basically shooting to just be a below-average pro. So let's say he is shooting for 72. In fact, let's even say 73 is his target average under similar conditions as today.  Therefore, his score of 83 means he is 10 strokes shy of his goal . Again, just rough numbers.

Can He Get There?

So he has improved about 9 strokes in 3 years, but he needs to improve about 10 strokes in the next 3 years. The curve is shifting toward a plateau, as many intelligent people had predicted. It just gets harder to shave those last strokes.  So the conclusion is:

His scores are not trending in a way that will allow him to achieve his goal.

In reality, he has far less than 3 years, because there will be a lot of time needed to perform at a high level just to be invited to tournaments that would pave the way for him to make a progression to play in a PGA event.

In reality, he will also need to improve more than just 10 strokes to leapfrog the 1000s of players that are already competing at a high level. Edging them out will not work, since he needs to skyrocket up the ranks like Jordan Spieth or something. Time is not his friend, and he'll need to win at lots of levels starting soon.

[Lancer78]

Wow, I was pretty close on my prediction of around 80.

[Shorty]

Yeah, but is it good for someone his HC and level?

It has nothing to do with his handicap or his level.

He thinks he's going to be competing against the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day in a couple of years.  And he'll be better than every player on the Asian and Web.Com tour.

Never mind the 16 year olds who are playing off + 3 who would take hie by 15 shots any time any where.

He's a deluded, publicity seeking fool.

He is in his 30s.

The goal  - stated and restated is PGA Tour.