Tiger will not win another major

[DFerlmann]

I dont think he will catch Jack. But i am confident that he will win another major.

[makaveli]

Thank you deasy, this can be a pretty fair way to judge a tournament, but if anyone got another method beside personal valuation I am completely open to that!

Originally Posted by deasy55

The winner in Australia got 42 World Ranking points and the winner of the Andalucia Masters got 38, so there was very little difference overall. I'd say the fact that the Australian Open had 3 of the worlds top 10 would have helped that somewhat. Interestingly the winner of the Singapore Open got 46 points, suggesting that that was the biggest event last week. Which, looking at the fields, I would have to agree with.

[dash1988]

i hope he does but whether he does or not he is still the greatest player ever to lift a club in my opinion.

[Parker0065]

The 1986 Masters was more of an outlier if you want to look at it graphically so I think a more realistic comparison is:

Jack 1962-1980 18 years - 17 Majors

Tiger 1997-2012 15 years - 14 Majors

So give or take a year Tiger is still on track to at least equal Jack, but the window is beginning to close slightly. I personally think Tiger will probably win 3 more and fall one short(I hope as a Nicklaus fan) but he could easily get hot and run off 5-6 Majors over the next 5 years. Plus Tiger will very likely have his own "86 Masters" outlier as well. Neither Jack or Tiger have won one major per year over their careers. Both of them have had runs where they won 3 or 4 Majors over a 2 to 3 year span. So they both have gotten hot and won multiple times and if Tiger finds that magic in the bottle again over the next few years he may very well catch my childhood hero. It is what it is! Records were made to be broken!

[DFerlmann]

Originally Posted by dash1988

i hope he does but whether he does or not he is still the greatest player ever to lift a club in my opinion.

I completely agree, i also feel that right now his competition is some of the best in PGA tour history, making it very hard to catch jack in major wins.

[WUTiger]

Originally Posted by lumpuckeroo

Seems to me with every missed major, Tiger is drastically reducing his chances of winning another major.  A little research shows that of the 18 players with 5 or more majors in their careers only 8 of them won majors over a span of more than 11 years.  Tiger's current major win span is 11 years.

You're simplying showing a pattern of events. You give no causal reasoning for why the 11 year spanc seems so critical.  As MiniBlue said, 44% of those with 5 or more majors did span more than 11 years.

Modern competitive golfers have embraced modern physical training methods to increase, strength, endurance and flexibility. Couple that with advancing reconstructive surgery and rehab methods, and it's easier to shake off injuries.

Case in point is Tom Watson. Just a few months after hip surgery, Watson came within an ill-fated 8-iron shot of winning the 2009 British Open at age 59. So, competitive longevity is lengthening.

Tiger is 36 now, and barring crippling injuries, and I suspect he will win some more majors. I also suspect, though, that he will be in his 40s if he reaches 18 majors.

Key question: To what degree will the presence of over a dozen Tiger-like golfers counterbalance the advances in golfer's physical training?

[saevel25]

Not much, look, tiger was 2nd in scoring average this year, he just hasn't put it together for 4 rounds at a major.

He's 36, i think he would be playing more competively than Jack did in his 40's, baring substantial injury.

There are probably 48 more majors he can be competative in, does he win a few more, yes i think so, it will be harder. A lot more people are as athletic as him, just look at that interview he did with Rory. When he was number 1 in the early 2000's it was him and Vijay in the weight room daily, now the room is packed with golfer's working out. So yea, i think it will be tougher.

I say he probably wins 2-3 in the next 6 years, and maybe has a shot at jacks record at by winning 2 in the following 6 years.

[x129]

I think you are being generous. Tiger turns 37 before the masters which means he will have 20 more majors before 42. Yes I am aware that guys have won majors after 4 but if you look at the past 30 years the number is very, very  low.

That being said, Tiger winning 25% of the majors over the next 4 years doesn't seem crazy. His game this year had a lot of moments of brilliance.  Replace a couple of bad rounds with a couple of good ones and he would have won 2 majors this year. That is a heck of a lot better than last year.

Quote:

Not much, look, tiger was 2nd in scoring average this year, he just hasn't put it together for 4 rounds at a major.

He's 36, i think he would be playing more competively than Jack did in his 40's, baring substantial injury.

There are probably 48 more majors he can be competative in, does he win a few more, yes i think so, it will be harder. A lot more people are as athletic as him, just look at that interview he did with Rory. When he was number 1 in the early 2000's it was him and Vijay in the weight room daily, now the room is packed with golfer's working out. So yea, i think it will be tougher.

I say he probably wins 2-3 in the next 6 years, and maybe has a shot at jacks record at by winning 2 in the following 6 years.

[FlyKixz23]

C'mon and let's get real! Tiger is no wash up by any standards and has gone through a lot in the past years and is now rallying back to the top! Another major.....o yea.....I think the man will exceed more then just 1 and take the record!

[iacas]

I added a poll.

And then voted "No" in it.

I hope I'm wrong… but I don't think I am.

[billchao]

I voted yes. I figure he's still good enough to win five events in one year, why can't one of them be the Masters? I don't think he's catching Jack, though, but that's another thread.

[MS256]

I would have to say no just as I voted that he wouldn't win one this year. And that was before it seemed like his back may be more of a chronic problem than I thought. Seeming more and more like all he has is a one round burst. Hope I'm wrong because I rarely watch golf if Tiger isn't in contention. I suppose somebody could come along that captures my attention to that degree but I haven't seen him yet. Maybe he changes his swing to something with less torque on his back, but I doubt it, and who knows if he would be any good with something else.

[newtogolf]

I'm with Erik, as much as it hurts, I voted "no".  He needs to get this back issue sorted out otherwise he's always one bad swing away from injuring himself and scoring a 78 like he did today.  Thankfully, I have zero experience with bad backs but this injury seems pretty serious and possibly chronic.

[nevets88]

He'll break Snead's regular wins record. If he doesn't win one this year that's it. Hope I'm wrong as well. Much more exciting when he wins.

[Infamous 273]

If luck was on his side, he'd be at 16 right now (2012 Open Championship, 2013 Masters). So if we're debating winning #15, I'd say yes, I think he will. 18? Eh, probably not so much.

[MSDOGS1976]

If he finds some kind of treatment like Couples did a year or two ago, its possible he could gain enough relief to allow him to feel well enough to win another major. But I doubt it also. It wouldn't surprise me to see him hang it up if he continues to struggle with his back.

[iacas]

If he finds some kind of treatment like Couples did a year or two ago, its possible he could gain enough relief to allow him to feel well enough to win another major. But I doubt it also. It wouldn't surprise me to see him hang it up if he continues to struggle with his back.

I don't think it's that bad.

Heck, I've had back pain (or neck pain) that lasted a few days. His has lasted a week, and he's only rested a few days in that time frame.

Until it displays itself over a few more times, I'm not ready to call it "chronic" or whatever.

[tmac20]

I actually think that he has a good chance at winning the Masters this year, even if he plays poorly at Bay Hill. Why? Because 1) he will get plenty of time to fix his back issue and 2) there will be not nearly as much pressure for him to win if he's playing poorly. It seems like all the recent major winners are players who haven't been performing their best up until that point. Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and Jason Dufner weren't having stellar seasons before winning their majors. Phil was the only exception. Maybe a mediocre start to Tiger's season will give him a better chance at winning a major. Call me crazy.