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lumpuckeroo

Tiger will not win another major

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  1. 1. Will Tiger Win a 15th Major?

    • Yes
      19
    • No
      14

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130 posts in this topic

Seems to me with every missed major, Tiger is drastically reducing his chances of winning another major.  A little research shows that of the 18 players with 5 or more majors in their careers only 8 of them won majors over a span of more than 11 years.  Tiger's current major win span is 11 years.

Span Yrs Titles
Jack Nicklaus 1962–1986 24 yrs 18
Tiger Woods 1997–2008 11 yrs 14
Walter Hagen 1914–1929 15 yrs 11
Gary Player 1959–1978 19 yrs 9
Ben Hogan 1946–1953 7 yrs 9
Tom Watson 1975–1983 8 yrs 8
Arnold Palmer 1958–1964 6 yrs 7
Sam Snead 1942–1954 12 yrs 7
Gene Sarazen 1922–1935 13 yrs 7
Bobby Jones 1923–1930 7 yrs 7
Harry Vardon 1896–1914 18 yrs 7
Nick Faldo 1987–1996 9 yrs 6
Lee Trevino 1968–1984 16 yrs 6
Byron Nelson 1937–1945 8 yrs 5
Seve Ballesteros 1979–1988 9 yrs 5
James Braid 1901–1910 9 yrs 5
John Henry Taylor 1894–1913 19 yrs 5
Peter Thomson 1954–1965 11 yrs 5
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While it's try that most of the guys on that list won majors over a shorter span, it's also try that most of then have won far fewer majors than Tiger. Just look at the top four. Jack took 24 years, Hagan took 15 years, and Player took 19 years. I will say that with every passing major breaking the record becomes less and less likely, but I wouldn't go as far as to say he won't ever win another major.
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44% isn't that bad. Quite easy to fall either side of the line to be fair.

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Tiger will be World Ranked number 1 within 2 years...
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Originally Posted by jamo

While it's try that most of the guys on that list won majors over a shorter span, it's also try that most of then have won far fewer majors than Tiger. Just look at the top four. Jack took 24 years, Hagan took 15 years, and Player took 19 years. I will say that with every passing major breaking the record becomes less and less likely, but I wouldn't go as far as to say he won't ever win another major.

I was going to say exactly this.

How about this stat: 100% of all previous players who won at least 14 majors went on to win 18 or more majors. :-P

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I'd be surprised if Tiger didn't win another major. However, I'd be even more surprised if he were to somehow get Jack's record.

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What the heck is this thread doing in this section?

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I'd be very surprised if this was the case. Although I definitely wouldn't put it past him. He will win Comeback Player Of The Year if he does

Originally Posted by CuppedTin

Tiger will be World Ranked number 1 within 2 years...



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I think he will win 1 or 2 more.  I don't think he breaks the record though.

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Might do it, might not. I don't see how it can be predicted. Jack won at what, 46? He has enough majors left to play.

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Originally Posted by iacas

I was going to say exactly this.

How about this stat: 100% of all previous players who won at least 14 majors went on to win 18 or more majors. :-P

Exactly...the OP's 'stats' analysis is meaningless.  Statistical analysis doesn't mean anything when you are looking at individual performances.

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I think its premature to say he won't win another major, but beating Jack's record seems increasingly unlikely.

Historically, surprisingly few majors have been won by players older than 35. And just a handful have been won by players after turning 41.

http:// goo.gl/YWNHh (Majors Won by Age)

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If Tiger goes on to be #1 again and wins another major, I will be extremely impressed.  The guy's done amazing things for sure in the past....but youth has a way of doing that.  Your brain and body loses it's plasticity as you get older, so it gets more and more difficult to remold and reshape it.  Throw a new swing into the mix there and it seems like an untimely recipe for disaster.  Hopefully he's practicing a lot of putting right now...

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I think he will win 1 or 2 more.  I don't think he breaks the record though.

I think if he gets any more majors, he'll break the record. It seems like it's an all or nothing deal at this point (or it's at least becoming increasingly so); either he gets his game back and wins 5+ more, or he never regains it and finishes his career at 14.

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Originally Posted by lumpuckeroo

Seems to me with every missed major, Tiger is drastically reducing his chances of winning another major.  A little research shows that of the 18 players with 5 or more majors in their careers only 8 of them won majors over a span of more than 11 years.  Tiger's current major win span is 11 years.

Span

Yrs

Titles

Jack Nicklaus

1962–1986

24 yrs

18

Tiger Woods

1997–2008

11 yrs

14

Walter Hagen

1914–1929

15 yrs

11

Gary Player

1959–1978

19 yrs

9

Ben Hogan

1946–1953

7 yrs

9

Tom Watson

1975–1983

8 yrs

8

Arnold Palmer

1958–1964

6 yrs

7

Sam Snead

1942–1954

12 yrs

7

Gene Sarazen

1922–1935

13 yrs

7

Bobby Jones

1923–1930

7 yrs

7

Harry Vardon

1896–1914

18 yrs

7

Nick Faldo

1987–1996

9 yrs

6

Lee Trevino

1968–1984

16 yrs

6

Byron Nelson

1937–1945

8 yrs

5

Seve Ballesteros

1979–1988

9 yrs

5

James Braid

1901–1910

9 yrs

5

John Henry Taylor

1894–1913

19 yrs

5

Peter Thomson

1954–1965

11 yrs

5

Jack won 17 majors in 18 years. Then he shot a great back 9 and got a 72nd hole gift from Norman in 1986. The bulk of his majors came in an 18 year span and he had a boatload of top 3s too. He had a lot of chances to win and made good 17 times in those 18 years.

Since '09, Tiger's contended at Augusta National and Pebble Beach. So that gives him one chance every year, and whenever they hold the Open at Pebble. Making up stats is fun. Seriously though, in spite of the runs he was on getting to 14, I'd be in no way surprised if he never won a tounament again. Any tournament.

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Even while playing poorly since his comeback at the Masters in 2010 he's played well for the most part in the majors, especially at Augusta. I'd be surprised if he didn't win at least one more Masters and probably another British Open. If his knee gets healthy and he fixes his putting I can see him winning 5-6 more majors. That's a lot of if's though.

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Before Jack came around, nobody had won over 11 majors. That means Jack couldn't possibly win 18. Come on, what's the point with this? When are people going to learn that statistics mean nothing to the individual? Also, I'd say 44% is a pretty good percentage. Especially since we are talking about one of the best golfers in the history of the sport.
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The thing that's stands out to me is that there were a lot more dangerous golfers in Jack's time span. Watson, Player, Travino... Cool that he won against those legends. Of course you can argue the opposite with that same data.

I'm not going to comment on Tiger...

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