2012 British Open Discussion Thread

[iacas]

I predict someone under the age of 40 wins this year.

Discuss all things "Royal Lytham & St. Anne's in 2012" here. :)

[Chilli Dipper]

This isn't the predictions thread. :-P

[iacas]

Originally Posted by Chilli Dipper

This isn't the predictions thread.

That's okay. I'm not eligible for that one. ;)

[Beachcomber]

Hunter Mahan... Lets do this!!

[mvmac]

Originally Posted by Beachcomber

Hunter Mahan... Lets do this!!

That's who I predicted for the TST staff predictions, great minds think alike

[jamo]

I took Lee Westwood at -5 in the TST staff predictions (because we weren't supposed to take Tiger, though I was going to try to avoid jinxing him anyway).

[BallStriker]

To me, this course seems to resemble the parkland courses in the states more that a lot of the other rota courses.....looks to be some trees and pretty clear sightlines....I think the US players will be very well represented on the the leaderboard.....non-Tiger pick?  I'll go with Matt Kuchar...also like the Mahan pick

[Back 9 Bandit]

I think Luke Donald or Rory McIlroy should jump out qiuck in the first few days. However, I think America will have a good hold of the leader board on the weekend.

[Lefty536]

Looking at the predictions thread most people thinking the winner will be a good few shots under par. Players reporting after their first practice rounds that the rough is tremendously thick. I think even par will win it this year.

[Chilli Dipper]

How thick is the rough at Lytham? This thick:

That is long, thick, and juicy. If a player goes more than three yards off the fairway this year, he is going to have no shot at moving the ball forward.

[jamo]

Looking at the predictions thread most people thinking the winner will be a good few shots under par. Players reporting after their first practice rounds that the rough is tremendously thick. I think even par will win it this year.

Yeah, that's why making these predictions is such a crapshoot. I went -5 because the average finish there over the years is about -6.

[iacas]

Here's the thing about thick rough on major championship venues... it's often an advantage for the longer and slightly wilder hitter.

What?

What's the difference in driving accuracy? 72% tops the list and 49% is at the bottom of the list. So 23% or so. Let's call it 20% difference between the average short-but-accurate (SBA) hitter and the long-and-wild (LAW) hitter.

I forget who, maybe Dustin Johnson, made the point years ago that everyone's going to find the rough a good portion of the time, but the LAW are often better at escaping from it and saving par (they're stronger, and they're more used to playing from it). So if the rough costs the average LAW 0.3 strokes and costs the average SBA 0.7 strokes, things start to tip towards the advantage being towards the LAW over the SBA.

Of course, ideally you'd find a player that's both long and reasonably accurate.

But I'm just saying - long rough doesn't always penalize the long hitters. Sometimes it's worse for the "accurate" guys, because they're still gonna miss 30% of their fairways or more.

BTW this was the more interesting sentence to me:

Quote:

It is just possible that, if Woods were to win at Lytham, he could return to the top of the world rankings.

[k-troop]

Originally Posted by Chilli Dipper

How thick is the rough at Lytham? This thick:

That is long, thick, and juicy. If a player goes more than three yards off the fairway this year, he is going to have no shot at moving the ball forward.

That's barely waist high to a six-foot tall man.  I'll be impressed when it impedes Adam Scott's grip when he putts.

Originally Posted by jamo

Yeah, that's why making these predictions is such a crapshoot. I went -5 because the average finish there over the years is about -6.

I picked -5 as the winning score too.  Some folks were picking 16 and 18 under??  That's crrrraaaazzzzyyy.

[brocks]

Here's the thing about thick rough on major championship venues... it's often an advantage for the longer and slightly wilder hitter... I forget who, maybe Dustin Johnson, made the point years ago that everyone's going to find the rough a good portion of the time, but the LAW are often better at escaping from it and saving par (they're stronger, and they're more used to playing from it). So if the rough costs the average LAW 0.3 strokes and costs the average SBA 0.7 strokes, things start to tip towards the advantage being towards the LAW over the SBA.

Not only that, but on many courses, a shot just a few yards off the fairway ends up in the deepest rough, but a wilder shot ends up on the adjacent fairway, with a clear shot to the green. I've always thought that hitting it onto an adjacent fairway should incur a penalty. [quote] BTW this was the more interesting sentence to me: [quote] It is just possible that, if Woods were to win at Lytham, he could return to the top of the world rankings.[/quote] [/quote] Yes, it would require low finishes from Luke and Rory, but it's possible. I doubt Tiger cares much, because the way he's been playing this year, it's just a matter of time, probably a couple of months at the most.

[iacas]

Originally Posted by brocks

Not only that, but on many courses, a shot just a few yards off the fairway ends up in the deepest rough, but a wilder shot ends up on the adjacent fairway, with a clear shot to the green. I've always thought that hitting it onto an adjacent fairway should incur a penalty.

It does. First you have to typically go through trees or somesuch to get there, then you have to go through trees or somesuch to get back, and you often add tremendous distance to the hole as well.

Plus some courses don't make distinctions between one fairway and the other, including the Old Course where fairways (and greens) are shared.

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by brocks

I've always thought that hitting it onto an adjacent fairway should incur a penalty.

Hey, watch your mouth buddy!  That's agregious!

[Golfingdad]

On a serious note ... what's the forecast?

I heard a couple of days ago something about the proverbial sideways rain.

[Zeph]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/6693470 15 mph forecast the first days.