235 Out on This Par Five - What's the Play?

[jamo]

You just took away the reward though.

You also avoid ALL of the risk.

[birlyshirly]

I'm allergic to cats.

Interesting concept on "shot value".  We have a long par 3 at my league course.  I am required to play the tips because of the flight I am in, which I hate.  The par 3 can vary from 190 to 210 depending on flag placement and it is 180 to reach the green with only 5 yards of rough short.  There is a marsh short (170 - 175 to carry depending on the tee), woods short and right, a trap right (190-200), long grass long right (200) and behind the whole (215), a hill with rough left long and marsh left (190 - 205).  Basically, the green is surrounded by crap and the hole is designed to eat balls.   It seems the only shot for me is to aim for the left middle of the green.  If I go left, I am in rough but can pitch out.  If I lose a ball, there is a drop area near the green.  I have pared the hole once in 9 tries this year.

My 190 club is my 3H.  My 180 is my 4 iron.  If there is wind in our face, 3W may reach the green.  My driver is ~220 carry.  What is the best shot value?  I can see if there was fairway short, the best play could be my 4 iron, but if there is any wind, it may not reach.

Unfortunately, not all holes are "strategic" in design. Some just penalize any errant shot. Holes like that, I'd just be trying not to lose a ball. Anywhere, including the trap, from where I could pitch onto the green would be a reasonable tee shot. Realistically, that hole's a par 4 for anyone with a double-digit handicap.

[nick1998bunker]

What reward?? The minute chance you will have a makeable eagle putt??  Seems to me it would be ensuring a better chance at the smaller reward (birdie).

The reward is very easy birdie versus struggling for birdie and maybe making bogey

[Slice of Life]

The reward is very easy birdie versus struggling for birdie and maybe making bogey

If you can't get up and two putt from 20-30 yards, you're definitely not hitting the green on that hole from 235 out.

[nick1998bunker]

T[quote name="Slice of Life" url="/t/69652/235-out-on-this-par-five-whats-the-play/210#post_892513"] If you can't get up and two putt from 20-30 yards, you're definitely not hitting the green on that hole from 235 out. [/quote] not necessarily but I get your gist. But on this hole there is no risk so you should go for it anyway. Of you chunk it you are right where you would have been with a layup anyway.

[Slice of Life]

T

not necessarily but I get your gist. But on this hole there is no risk so you should go for it anyway. Of you chunk it you are right where you would have been with a layup anyway.

Yes, necessarily. Trees, bunkers...I see risk. The kind of player who can't get in the hole with 3 shots from 30 yards away, is hitting that green 5% of the time (MAYBE), and going into the trees 60% of the time. Plus, someone with short game that poor, would probably take 5 shots to hole out from the bunker. There's a double bogey.

[Dave2512]

Quote:

Obstacle Factors

The following obstacle factors are determined for each landing zone for both the scratch and the bogey golfer:

Topography:   Topography is a factor if the stance or lie in the landing zone is affected by slopes or mounds, or the shot to the green is uphill or downhill, making club selection more difficult.

Fairway: Fairway is an evaluation of the difficulty of keeping the ball in play from tee to green. Fairway ratings are based on fairway width in all landing zones, hole length, and nearby trees, hazards, and punitive rough.

Green Target: Green Target is an evaluation of the difficulty of hitting the green with the approach shot. Primary considerations are green size, approach shot length, and green surface visibility, firmness, and contour.

Recoverability and Rough:  Recoverability and Rough is the evaluation of the probability of missing the tee shot landing zone and the green, and the difficulty of recovering if either, or both, is missed. The Green Target rating drives the Recoverability and Rough rating value.

Bunkers:  Bunkers is the evaluation of their proximity to target areas and the difficulty of recovery from them. The Green Target rating also drives the Bunkers rating value.

Out of Bounds/ExtremeRough: OB/Extreme Rough is the evaluation of the distance from the center of the landing zone to the OB/Extreme Rough. High grass, heavy underbrush in trees, and other extreme conditions are rated in this category because a ball in such "extreme rough" is likely to be lost or virtually unplayable. Such areas may also be rated under Recoverability and Rough.

Water Hazards: Water Hazards is the evaluation of a water hazard and its distance from the landing zone or green and, in the case of a hazard crossing a hole, the problem involved in playing over the hazard. The Water Hazards rating is applied on any hole where there is a water hazard or lateral water hazard that exists on the hole.

Trees:   Trees is the evaluation of the size and density of the trees, their distance from the center of the landing zone or green, the length of the shot to that target, and the difficulty of recovery.

Green Surface: Green Surface is the evaluation of a green's difficulty from a putting standpoint.  Green speed and surface contouring are the main factors. The size of the green is considered irrelevant in evaluating putting difficulty. A Stimpmeter™ is utilized to measure the speed of the greens based on midseason conditions.

Psychological: Psychological is the evaluation of the cumulative effect of the other obstacles. The location of many punitive obstacles close to a target area creates uneasiness in the mind of the player and thus affects his or her score. This value is purely mathematical and is added after the on-course rating is complete.

Each obstacle is assigned a value of 0 to 10, depending on its relation to how a scratch or bogey golfer would play the hole. When the evaluation is complete, the numbers for each hole's obstacles are totaled and multiplied by a relative weighting factor. The weighted obstacle stroke values are applied to scratch and bogey formulas and then converted to strokes. Those strokes are added or subtracted from the Yardage Rating to produce a Bogey Rating and USGA Course Rating, and the difference between those two values multiplied by a constant factor is the Slope Rating.

Courses must be re-rated at least every 10 years, or if it is a new golf course, within 5 years. A course must also be re-rated if significant changes have been made to the course. To schedule a course rating, the club representative needs to contact its authorized golf association.

[iacas]

The reward is very easy birdie versus struggling for birdie and maybe making bogey

Nick, just stop, please.

[pepsiplusconker]

T

not necessarily but I get your gist. But on this hole there is no risk so you should go for it anyway. Of you chunk it you are right where you would have been with a layup anyway.

Haha, what?!

I would expect anyone who can break 100 to get up and 2 putt for par from 30 yards.

[TJBam]

You obviously didn't see me play on Monday. :doh:

[nick1998bunker]

Well [quote name="Slice of Life" url="/t/69652/235-out-on-this-par-five-whats-the-play/210#post_892519"] Yes, necessarily. Trees, bunkers...I see risk. The kind of player who can't get in the hole with 3 shots from 30 yards away, is hitting that green 5% of the time (MAYBE), and going into the trees 60% of the time. Plus, someone with short game that poor, would probably take 5 shots to hole out from the bunker. There's a double bogey.  [/quote] Well, I can't speak for the average golfer but I've stated my opinion and am done on this thread. Cheers

[Lefty-Golfer]

interesting thread, lots of ways to see the game. bottom line for me is a golfer has to be comfortable with the shot selection or the stats don't matter. one thing i have learned in golf, poker and business is that stress makes smart people do very stupid things. it also causes physical failures that are not explainable (johnnie miller).

my problem with math based solutions to fluid people/human problems are it doesn't take enough of the mental side into play.

that being said i will will go for as close as possible without a blow up everytime!!

[14ledo81]

T

not necessarily but I get your gist. But on this hole there is no risk so you should go for it anyway. Of you chunk it you are right where you would have been with a layup anyway.

No risk??? Did you even read anything that Erik wrote???

[Shorty]

Well

Well, I can't speak for the average golfer but I've stated my opinion and am done on this thread. Cheers

Your tag line says that you are trying to learn all there is to know, but you insist on trying to tell other people what you think you know and believe to be, but you are rarely correct.

Iacas went to great lengths to explain his point.

Also, aerial views never paint the full picture. But trees obviously present no risk to you.

You need to show that you are trying to learn. Actions speak louder than words.

[bplewis24]

No risk??? Did you even read anything that Erik wrote???

He's simply being obstinate. I have no problem with a person making the case for going for it, but suggesting there is no risk is just silly.

[Golfingdad]

He's simply being obstinate. I have no problem with a person making the case for going for it, but suggesting there is no risk is just silly.

I think it's very commendable!!!  Pretty sure that the only way to avoid all risk IS by being obstinate .  At least that is what I learned in sex ed. ;)

Being serious though:  He's a teenager ... didn't we all know everything when we were teenagers too? ;)

[David in FL]

Your tag line says that you are trying to learn all there is to know, but you insist on trying to tell other people what you think you know and believe to be, but you are rarely correct. Iacas went to great lengths to explain his point. Also, aerial views never paint the full picture. But trees obviously present no risk to you. You need to show that you are trying to learn. Actions speak louder than words.

Hey, he's 15. Like my daughter, he knows it all,... Just think where he'll be when he can drive a car! ;-)

[geauxforbroke]

Just think where he'll be when he can drive a car!