Risk reward hole with no forced carry?

[MS256]

My son and I argue about the best way to play this hole all the time.

It's 335 yards and quite a bit uphill for the first 250 yards. Most guys with respectable distance hit a driver to about where the last line is and hit a 3W to about where the first line is.

It's 33 yards from the tree on the left at the first line to OB on the right and it's 30 yards from the left side of the last line (where an OB stake is) to OB on the right, so you gain about 3 yards of width by laying back with the 3W.

With a 3W you are left with around a 100 to 115 yard blind shot to the green severely sloping away. I rarely see a birdie made from that side of the hill.

Basically no roll up the slope with a 3W but might get a little on top of the hill with a driver.

With a driver you have around a 60 to 70 yard shot with the green visible. Still not an "easy" shot with the green sloping away but many more birdies from there than back at 115 yards.

Either tee shot either requires a fade or a very high launch angle to not hit the two trees about 60 and 100 yards down the fairway.

BTW. I almost always hit a driver. Sometimes I pay a double bogey price, sometimes I have a good chance at birdie, and sometimes I hit a bad shot that ends up OK and about where a 3W would have been and can still make par.

What would you do?

[dbuck]

If I thought I could clear the trees, I would probably hit driver as well. Not too much safer here to go with 3W. If I didn't feel I could get 'round/over trees with driver, I might just hit a 3 hybrid and lay back a little further. Or, if playing the bag in my sig, 5W.

[PA Golf Info]

I would use my driver.  I am pretty straight with it and I feel on a hole like that I would be in a good spot to hit the green in 2. I think it is the up hill that really must make this a killer if you do not get hold of the ball off the tee.

[MS256]

I would use my driver.  I am pretty straight with it and I feel on a hole like that I would be in a good spot to hit the green in 2. I think it is the up hill that really must make this a killer if you do not get hold of the ball off the tee.

Until last year it was a fairly easy hole. I wouldn't say a birdie hole because of the slope of the green but not much problem making pars with it's share of birdies for longer hitters.

Then last year the OB stakes on the left were added because everybody was aiming for the loop in the cart path. There are tee boxes where the cart path loops. There is also a sign on the tee box telling players to not hit until the other tee box is clear. Adding those OB stakes completely changed the hole.

The enigma to me is why so many more birdies are made from 70 yards with a look at the green than from 115 yards with no look at the green. Any ball that rolls out on the green is not only downhill but breaking hard right. That creates a fairly small landing area on the front left part of the green that has a good success rate on getting close to the hole.

Balls that land short of the green don't bounce onto the green because of a little swale just in front of the green. Most people with the blind shot end up either in the swale short of the green or over the green.

Most of us like to think we are almost as accurate from 115 yards as we are from 70 yards but the results on that hole show that's simply not the case (at least for the people at our course).

[David in FL]

Driver every time.  I see no benefit to hitting less club (no appreciably more risk hitting driver) and closer is always better for the approach shot.

[saevel25]

Driver every time.  I see no benefit to hitting less club (no appreciably more risk hitting driver) and closer is always better for the approach shot.

I agree on that. Also the in course OB on the left could end by the time my ball stops. Not sure where that is at. Since OB is all the way down the right. I rather hit it as far as I can. If OB began down by the hole, I might consider laying back because it actually gives me an option of not having to worry about it. Since it forces my hand a bit, just grip and rip I say!!

[Golfingdad]

Then last year the OB stakes on the left were added because everybody was aiming for the loop in the cart path. There are tee boxes where the cart path loops. There is also a sign on the tee box telling players to not hit until the other tee box is clear. Adding those OB stakes completely changed the hole.

LOL, well I'm ****ed.

I was just scanning all of the previous posts to see if anybody had my answer, which (100% truth) was going to be: I'd pull driver and aim far enough left that I'd take all risk of the OB out of play ... basically at that loop in the cart path.  Easy hole. ;)

OK, since that is now out, and my choices are OB right and OB left, then it is 100% imperative that I find the fairway or something close to it.  So I'm going to hit 3 wood or hybrid or maybe even a 4 iron, to make sure I get off the tee in one shot.  A decent hybrid on flat ground would leave me with no more than a gap wedge coming in, so with a big upslope, its still not going to be more than, probably an 8 or 9 iron.  Should be able to get on or close from there and make a par.

[boogielicious]

LOL, well I'm ****ed.

I was just scanning all of the previous posts to see if anybody had my answer, which (100% truth) was going to be:  I'd pull driver and aim far enough left that I'd take all risk of the OB out of play ... basically at that loop in the cart path.  Easy hole. ;)

OK, since that is now out, and my choices are OB right and OB left, then it is 100% imperative that I find the fairway or something close to it.  So I'm going to hit 3 wood or hybrid or maybe even a 4 iron, to make sure I get off the tee in one shot.  A decent hybrid on flat ground would leave me with no more than a gap wedge coming in, so with a big upslope, its still not going to be more than, probably an 8 or 9 iron.  Should be able to get on or close from there and make a par.

Me too.  In the fairway is paramount.  OB is stroke and distance.  I would be OB 30% of the time with only 30 yards to play with for my driver.

[Jeremie Boop]

We have a hole very similar to this where I play, it's a bit more uphill and probably a little wider with OB on the right about 1/2 the distance of the hole and trees to the left basically the same. There is a decent margin for error once you top the hill and it widens out. The main difference is there are bunkers guarding the front of the green on the hole I play. I rarely, if ever hit a drive short of the top of the hill and having a flat lie and being able to see the green is a much more beneficial position for me.

[MS256]

I agree on that. Also the in course OB on the left could end by the time my ball stops. Not sure where that is at. Since OB is all the way down the right. I rather hit it as far as I can. If OB began down by the hole, I might consider laying back because it actually gives me an option of not having to worry about it. Since it forces my hand a bit, just grip and rip I say!!

There is an OB stake at the left end of the red line. The next OB stake down is at the right edge of the small dark patch and the last OB stake is just inside of the small pine trees left of the green.

So the really long hitters have a gradually widening landing area once past the red line. We only have a couple of guys that are long enough to take advantage of that consistently. You would probably be one of those.

My very best leaves me 35 yards to the green, and I can't count on my very best very often. I just aim at the OB stake on the left and hit a fade. If it doesn't fade I'm screwed.

P.S. The OB stake on the left side of the yellow line is left of the trees and there's a chance the trees can knock a ball down and save it from going OB. Still a very tough par if blocked by the trees left of the yellow line but at least a chance.

[Phil McGleno]

What am I missing-Blast a driver up the left side. If you miss the fairway so what? There's like one tree there and youre gonna be 50 yards from the green right?

[MS256]

What am I missing-Blast a driver up the left side. If you miss the fairway so what? There's like one tree there and youre gonna be 50 yards from the green right?

As long as you aren't OB left which is the edge of the fairway.

Probably easy for you but not so much of a sure thing for most of us.

[mattm16]

I disagree that closer is always better.  For instance, I would rather have a full shot into the green than a 1/2 or 1/4 shot.  Of course, this is just my opinion.

[el shanko]

it would not matter to me I would hit those ****ing trees 70 or so yards out (get the chain saw)..........3h then 9i or pitching wedge.........3 putt  ppppffftttt

[Phil McGleno]

Why is left OB?-Thats the golf course too. Is this one of those stupid internal OBs that shitty course layouts are forced to use to "protect" people?[quote name="MS256" url="/t/74567/risk-reward-hole-with-no-forced-carry#post_990289"] As long as you aren't OB left which [SIZE=14px] is [/SIZE] the edge of the fairway. :-D [/quote]

[iacas]

I disagree that closer is always better.  For instance, I would rather have a full shot into the green than a 1/2 or 1/4 shot.  Of course, this is just my opinion.

It's off topic for this thread, but you're absolutely wrong about that. Perhaps not for your particular game… but if so, take 30 minutes and make yourself wrong. You're costing yourself shots by requiring a full shot.

Single strongest correlation to be found anywhere in golf: the closer a ball is to the hole before the stroke, the closer it will be after the stroke.

[MS256]

The green line on the left is the OB line.

[iacas]

The green line on the left is the OB line.

I'm with Phil. That's stupid.