Basically, we're screwed

[Big Lex]

Media outlets - particularly those of a political nature - are filled with pieces about the environment, and there is of course a huge, emotional debate over climate. This study makes it all seem trivial.  As I read it, nothing short of a return to hunter-gatherer societies, or some type of society with orders-of-magnitude less economic activity than what we have now, can save us from mass extinction. Oh, it's a few centuries into the future for sure, so we can keep playing golf. But in geologic time, we just have a few minutes left.  I can't link the full text article, but if you email the author he will send you a pdf if you want to read it. 

http://www.pnas.org/content/112/31/9511.abstract?sid=51bb8ecc-dbd4-43fe-8c9c-638cb9b65589

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-08-11/the-earth-s-battery-is-running-low

 

[RandallT]

Earth winds down all of its energy via entropy.... the earth gets zapped by the sun.... [fill in any natural disaster- mega release of methane, hit by massive comet, etc]

http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/10/extreme-solar-storms-could-be-more-common-than-expected/

Scientists studying ancient ice cores extracted from Greenland and Antarctica have found further evidence of two very powerful solar storms in the last 1,300 years, raising concerns about similar events in the future. Extreme solar storms pose a threat to all forms of electronic technology.

FURTHER READING

MYSTERIOUS RADIATION EVENT OF 774 MIGHT BE (A LITTLE) LESS MYSTERIOUS

Calculations that ruled out solar flare were done incorrectly.

In 2012, Japanese scientists first reported the discovery of a spike of carbon-14 in cedar trees on that island during the AD 774-775 time frame. Since then, similar spikes have been observed in tree rings from the same era obtained on other continents. And thanks to a college biochemistry student, scientists have rooted the event in history through a reference in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle, which cites a “red crucifix” appearing in the heavens after sunset in the year 774.

It hasn't been entirely clear what caused this radioactive spike, however, and exotic theories such as a giant comet hitting the Sun or a nearby supernova have been put forward to explain it. Now researchers led by geologist Raimund Muscheler of Lund University in Sweden say they have solved the mystery of both the 774-775 AD event as well as a similar one in 993-994 AD. In addition to carbon-14, they have linked radioactive beryllium to both events, firmly establishing them as solar flares.

“In this study we have aimed to work systematically to find the cause for these events," Muscheler said. "We have now found corresponding increases for exactly the same periods in ice cores. With these new results it is possible to rule out all other suggested explanations and thereby confirm extreme solar storms as the cause of these mysterious radiocarbon increases.”

FURTHER READING

1859’S “GREAT AURORAL STORM”—THE WEEK THE SUN TOUCHED THE EARTH

Accounts of the largest electromagnetic storm ever recorded.

The new analysis of these past solar storms also confirms that they were several times stronger than the most intense solar storms that have been recorded on Earth. The largest solar flare ever measured came in 1859, during the so-called Carrington Event. Named for British astronomer Richard Christopher Carrington who discovered and tracked the solar outburst, the event disrupted telegraph service around the world.

In 2013, Lloyd's of London and the Atmospheric and Environmental Research Center estimatedthat the duration of power outages during a Carrington-like event today could last five months or longer for 20 to 40 million Americans at a total economic cost of $0.6-2.6 trillion.

Additionally, were an event the magnitude of the AD 774 or AD 993 solar storms to occur today, the study authors say it would critically disrupt satellite-based technology and means of communication. They urged a reassessment of the risks associated with very intense solar storms, which may very well occur more frequently than currently believed.

We're screwed sometime in the future, that's for certain. I doubt we will destroy our environment or deplete the fossil fuel energy reserves anytime before we figure out a way around that, but I have no better idea than anyone else (I was a nuclear engineer, btw). No scientific paper has been able to prove to me that humans can't engineer our ways out of our mess, but there are no guarantees and I get that we as a race should put some effort into figuring it all out.

But for now I'm busy working on my backswing. I don't have the energy for these weighty things. 

But very interesting articles- particularly the comment section. Thanks for sharing!

[Lihu]

No scientific paper has been able to prove to me that humans can't engineer our ways out of our mess, but there are no guarantees and I get that we as a race should put some effort into figuring it all out.

Sure, we found ways around many obstacles and continue to do so. . .

My theory for the current panic is that wealthy people who control the media live by the ocean and want to somehow keep their lifestyles the same for themselves and their descendants over the next several centuries.

 

[turtleback]

Relax.

Life is fatal.

Always has been always will be.

[Yukari]

Don't you know, you start dying from day 1.

[Pendragon]

On 10/29/2015 at 10:31 AM, turtleback said:

Relax.

Life is fatal.

Always has been always will be.

So true. Hand me another beer.

[Patch]

So today was the first day of the rest of my life? No problem as my doctor tells me the same thing after each visit. 

I figure I have 10-15 years of some sort of cohearant life style left. Maybe +/-1500 rounds of golf. A few hundred fishing trips. A few thousand miles of hike. Copious amounts of my favorite beverages. After that, wgafba. 

[WUTiger]

Quote

 From The Earth's Battery... by Andrew Nikiforuk.

 

"...It, too, comes with a provocative title: "Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid discharge of the Earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind."

 

The battery metaphor speaks volumes and then some. ..."

In my day job as a college professor, I sometimes teach graduate level Quantitative Research Methods to business students. So, I want to caution you, let's not get too carried away by the weight of a metaphor, or analogy.

The earth's battery is a clever literary device, but it's an analogy. By analogy, I mean a device which says the earth's environment is like a battery.

Metaphors are useful for starting a discussion, but saying that X is like Y is not proof of anything. For those of you interested in the reasoning behind this, here a segment from Samuel B. Bacharach's 1989 article, Organizational Theory: Some Criteria for Evaluation.

Spoiler

Metaphors are powerful literary tools. Robert Bums' comparison of his love to a red rose evokes strong emotional imagery. It does not need to evoke a series of analytical questions about love; the description itself suffices. To be of use in the development of theory in organizational behavior, a metaphor must go beyond description and be a useful heuristic device. That is, the imagery contained in the metaphor must assist the theorist in deriving specific propositions and/or hypotheses about the phenomenon being studied. In this context, metaphors are not theories but may well serve as precursors to theories, and should be judged on that basis. For example, if one chooses to view organizations as "nonconflictual zeppelins," it's his or her prerogative to do so. What must be evaluated is not whether organizations are in fact "nonconflictual zeppelins," but rather the propositions and hypotheses derived from the imagery. If one's image of organizations as "nonconflictual zeppelins" is to thrive, then it is because the quality of propositions and hypotheses generated by this image is better than the quality of those generated by other alternative images such as "garbage can models" or "loosely coupled systems."

From: Bacharach on Theory and Metaphors

 Now, as far as taking care of the earth goes, I believe in taking aggressive action against spot instances of chronic pollution or environmental degradation. That said, the Global Warming/Climate Change (GWCC) crowd wants an "all or nothing" victory against deniers whom they believe have insufficient concern for Mother Nature, spaceship earth - pick your favorite metaphor. While GWCCs wait for ultimate victory, too many perpetrators of moderate-level spot pollution fly under the radar.

Case in point is the debate about global warming and the influence of carbon on temperature rise. I have discussed this point with people with graduate degrees in meteorology and climate science. Carbon arises as having a significant effect on temperatures. But, the amount of variance in temperature which carbon explains in negligible. That means, lots of other factors have a much larger influence on temperature change than carbon.

A metaphor in golf could be the big concern of the kickpoint of a golf shaft. Recently, shaft designers such as KBS have been downplaying the importance of kickpoint. Fitters I have talked to say that kickpoint is a final, fine-tuning aspect of shaft selection, well behind club loft and shaft weight + torque. By now the shaft maker Miyazaki has developed a four-digit code to show the flex characteristics at four different points on the shaft. So now, the shaft model has developed which looks at the flex points of a shaft and how these points work together to influence launch characteristics. So, the value of discussing individual kickpoint has largely been superseded - seen as having much less value - as has the climate-carbon bruhaha.

Running parallel to the global warming/climate change debate are conscious efforts to remedy clearcut examples of environmental degradation. Consider China's efforts to gain control of air pollution in Shanghai, and prevent future instances of toxic landslides the industrial center of Shenzhen (see Dec. 24 Wall Street Journal). When hearing a description of what has happened in these two cities, even non-scientists would agree that a clear source of pollution exists,

So, in the big environmental picture, here's the challenge: take action on the clearcut environmental pollution crises, while recognizing the limited usefulness of the climate and carbon linkages.  The nebulous climate and carbon linkage has become secular dogma for the left of liberal crowd, even though its ability to explain variance in temperatures is negligible.

[colin007]

I'm wearing my tinfoil hat. Y'all can go without and see what happens.

[Club Rat]

On ‎12‎/‎28‎/‎2015 at 6:16 PM, Pendragon said:

So true. Hand me another beer.

[dak4n6]

On 12/28/2015 at 9:40 PM, WUTiger said:

But, the amount of variance in temperature which carbon explains in negligible.

Why would the variance, or variability, in temp be the critical metric rather than change in overall mean temp versus time? Variance is a measure of the dispersion of individual data points. Long term change would be measured by the slope of the mean vs time, ie, dT/dt where T = mean temp and t = time.