Rule 27-2b ... Definition of "Likely?"

[Golfingdad]

7 minutes ago, turtleback said:

Where did you start looking for it?  That is certainly a very strong indicator of that likely spot - why would you start looking in a place the ball was not likely to be?  And once you start looking for it, the whole point is going to become moot since your 5 minutes will be up long before you get to the green area and find it. 

In order for the ball to "likely" be up near the green in your situation you would have to first ASSUME that the ball got on and stayed on the cart path.  That in and of itself is probably not likely, and since it is a prerequisite for the ball being up by the green I do not see how it possibly could be "likely" that the ball is up by the green.  The fact that you can retrace the ball's path does not, IMO, make that path "likely".  Likely means, to me, that if you had hit a bunch of similar hots where are the balls going to end up.  The fact that there was an outlier that hit the cart path and went 500 yards is a sufficiently rare occurrence, that in no way could it, in the absence of actual observation, be considered as where the ball was likely to be.

Seriously, if you hit 10 balls on the same line and traj, you REALLY think, even knowing the complete layout, that the balls are LIKELY to end up 500 yards away, by the green?  Are you going to aim over there, next time, on the theory that if you hit it there the ball is likely to be 500 yards away by the green?

IMO your situation is exactly the reason for the likely criteria.  It seems to me that the point of the rule is to prevent a player from playing his provisional while still looking for his ball.  It is more of a statute of limitations kind of thing, so there is reasonable closure on what the ball in play is.  

So no, I am not buying it at all.

What is it that you're not "buying?"

[Abu3baid]

I have a question that's related to this topic.. Let's say I hit the same shot Drew did, and I said I bet my ball went down the cart path and is probably next to the green.

Then I took my provisional and said I'm going to keep playing my provisional until I get close enough to the green to look for my ball, would there be any issue in that?

would I have to verbalize this intention, or is it enough for me to not go look for the ball in the area that it went into?  As in, ok guys I think my ball is next to the green, I'm going to keep playing my provisional so I don't have to go back if I don't find it. 

[DaveP043]

12 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

I have a question that's related to this topic.. Let's say I hit the same shot Drew did, and I said I bet my ball went down the cart path and is probably next to the green.

Then I took my provisional and said I'm going to keep playing my provisional until I get close enough to the green to look for my ball, would there be any issue in that?

would I have to verbalize this intention, or is it enough for me to not go look for the ball in the area that it went into?  As in, ok guys I think my ball is next to the green, I'm going to keep playing my provisional so I don't have to go back if I don't find it. 

I think everyone has agreed that its not likely for a ball to hit the cart path and run an extra 200 yards.  Therefore, no matter how you phrase it, you'd be outside of the rules to continue playing your provisional in the way you suggest.  However, if your provisional is about even with the original ball's "likely" location, its within the rules to play it.  "About even" is not "nearer to the hole".  However, he'd still have to find his original ball, in its unlikely location, within 5 minutes of starting his search, otherwise his provisional becomes the ball in play.

[Abu3baid]

Just now, DaveP043 said:

I think everyone has agreed that its not likely for a ball to hit the cart path and run an extra 200 yards.  Therefore, no matter how you phrase it, you'd be outside of the rules to continue playing your provisional in the way you suggest.  However, if your provisional is about even with the original ball's "likely" location, its within the rules to play it.  "About even" is not "nearer to the hole".  However, he'd still have to find his original ball, in its unlikely location, within 5 minutes of starting his search, otherwise his provisional becomes the ball in play.

In that case I would just say that I believe my ball went down the cart path and I'm going to go search for it next to the green.. Take my 5 minutes of searching there and then come back and play the provisional.. Isn't it exactly the same thing?  Except in the first instance I saved a few minutes as I have already advanced my provisional before searching near the green?

[DaveP043]

2 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

In that case I would just say that I believe my ball went down the cart path and I'm going to go search for it next to the green.. Take my 5 minutes of searching there and then come back and play the provisional.. Isn't it exactly the same thing?  Except in the first instance I saved a few minutes as I have already advanced my provisional before searching near the green?

You can search wherever you want, whether its likely or not, but it is simply NOT likely that the ball rolled 200 yards on the cart path, no matter what you say out loud as justification.  As I said, I'd have no problem if you took one more shot with your provisional, since its about even with the likely location of your original, and not  clearly "closer to the hole".  You don't need to say you believe it hit the cart path simply to make an excuse.    You could even choose to hit that second shot with your provisional first, and then begin your search, in whatever location you choose.

My opinion here is based on the original post, and the drawing.  It all goes out the window if you hit your original into the gunk 50 yards off the tee, and then hit your provisional 220 down the middle.  If your provisional is clearly closer to the hole than your original is likely to be (and 200 yards of roll on a cart path isn't likely), taking a second shot with the provisional makes it the ball in play.

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, Abu3baid said:

I have a question that's related to this topic.. Let's say I hit the same shot Drew did, and I said I bet my ball went down the cart path and is probably next to the green.

Then I took my provisional and said I'm going to keep playing my provisional until I get close enough to the green to look for my ball, would there be any issue in that?

would I have to verbalize this intention, or is it enough for me to not go look for the ball in the area that it went into?  As in, ok guys I think my ball is next to the green, I'm going to keep playing my provisional so I don't have to go back if I don't find it. 

Yeah, I kind of pondered a similar idea a few posts up, but I think @DaveP043 has it right:

58 minutes ago, DaveP043 said:

I think everyone has agreed that its not likely for a ball to hit the cart path and run an extra 200 yards.  Therefore, no matter how you phrase it, you'd be outside of the rules to continue playing your provisional in the way you suggest.  However, if your provisional is about even with the original ball's "likely" location, its within the rules to play it.  "About even" is not "nearer to the hole".  However, he'd still have to find his original ball, in its unlikely location, within 5 minutes of starting his search, otherwise his provisional becomes the ball in play.

However, if you have a reason for thinking that the ball rolled down the cart path - i.e. the side slope of rough is mown closely to feed balls back towards the fairway and you're aware of that and it's happened before, OR you saw a cart path bounce or two - then I think that you're OK.  But you're not OK in that situation because you verbalized it, but rather because the extra circumstances made it much more "likely" that the ball kept on traveling.

That's my guess, at least. 

[Baog]

1 hour ago, DaveP043 said:

You can search wherever you want, whether its likely or not, but it is simply NOT likely that the ball rolled 200 yards on the cart path, no matter what you say out loud as justification.

There is no arbiter of liklihood except the player himself. If the player sincerely believes it's likely that the ball is by the green, how can you penalize him for choosing to search in a given place? The penalty for searching in the wrong place is not finding one's ball; that's why there is no need for an impartial decision on whether the search area is "likely".

In this case it rolled 200 yards on 50% of his tee shots on that hole that day so how can you say unequivocally that it's "NOT likely?" No one is trying to cheat by looking for their ball in a wrong area simply so they can make an extra stroke with their provisional before it's in play.

[DrvFrShow]

Likely becomes tough when you have blind tee shots. The 5 minute rule on the distance also favors cart players over walkers. Suppose you rip a ball on a blind tee shot but it goes straight but toward the short rough, and is not readily found until you get on top of it? I guess you hit a provisional on that hole "just in case" for pace of play purposes, but your provisional doesn't go as far. You get over the crest of the hill and your original shot is nowhere in sight. You play your provisional and put your fourth shot on the green. Then while walking up the rough you find your original ball, very playable. Your original doesn't count according to the rule because you played a provisional and hit it and the five minutes elapsed. So now you're punished for trying to keep the pace of play, but you know that if you didn't, you never would have found your original ball. 

However if you were in a cart and hurried, you could find your original ball within the 5 minute window then abandon your provisional ready to hit your second shot. Playing partners be damned, you're looking. When does the 5 minutes start? When you start actually looking for the ball? or immediately after you hit the ball? 

[Golfingdad]

9 minutes ago, DrvFrShow said:

Likely becomes tough when you have blind tee shots. The 5 minute rule on the distance also favors cart players over walkers. Suppose you rip a ball on a blind tee shot but it goes straight but toward the short rough, and is not readily found until you get on top of it? I guess you hit a provisional on that hole "just in case" for pace of play purposes, but your provisional doesn't go as far. You get over the crest of the hill and your original shot is nowhere in sight. You play your provisional and put your fourth shot on the green. Then while walking up the rough you find your original ball, very playable. Your original doesn't count according to the rule because you played a provisional and hit it and the five minutes elapsed. So now you're punished for trying to keep the pace of play, but you know that if you didn't, you never would have found your original ball. 

However if you were in a cart and hurried, you could find your original ball within the 5 minute window then abandon your provisional ready to hit your second shot. Playing partners be damned, you're looking. When does the 5 minutes start? When you start actually looking for the ball? or immediately after you hit the ball? 

The 5 minutes starts when you start looking for the ball in the area it's likely to be.  You hit your second with the provisional from further away from the hole than where you thought your original was and where your original turned out to be AND you didn't take very long to find it ("while walking up the rough" sounds like you found it pretty quickly) so you'd be fine in continuing play with your original.

In fact, I think you'd even be required to continue play with the original.  So on the off chance that you holed out for par with your second provisional shot, you still have to abandon it.  (Of course, if you did that, then you probably wouldn't even start looking for the original, so ...) :)

[Fourputt]

2 hours ago, DaveP043 said:

I think everyone has agreed that its not likely for a ball to hit the cart path and run an extra 200 yards.  Therefore, no matter how you phrase it, you'd be outside of the rules to continue playing your provisional in the way you suggest.  However, if your provisional is about even with the original ball's "likely" location, its within the rules to play it.  "About even" is not "nearer to the hole".  However, he'd still have to find his original ball, in its unlikely location, within 5 minutes of starting his search, otherwise his provisional becomes the ball in play.

Note what I put in bold.  That is an incorrect statement.  Rule 27-2 states:

Quote

The player may play a provisional ball until he reaches the place where the original ball is likely to be. If he makes a stroke with the provisional ball from the place where the original ball is likely to be or from a point nearer the hole than that place, the original ball is lost and the provisional ball becomes the ball in playunder penalty of stroke and distance

Note that it says "from the place where the original ball is likely to be".  Making a stroke from that place would make the provisional ball the ball in play and the original ball is lost.

43 minutes ago, Baog said:

There is no arbiter of liklihood except the player himself. If the player sincerely believes it's likely that the ball is by the green, how can you penalize him for choosing to search in a given place? The penalty for searching in the wrong place is not finding one's ball; that's why there is no need for an impartial decision on whether the search area is "likely".

In this case it rolled 200 yards on 50% of his tee shots on that hole that day so how can you say unequivocally that it's "NOT likely?" No one is trying to cheat by looking for their ball in a wrong area simply so they can make an extra stroke with their provisional before it's in play.

The point is that he can't start his search in one place (that is what he initially considers "most likely") then rescind that after taking 3 or four minutes and go forward to search in another area without the clock continuing to tick.  It also doesn't revert the status of a ball that he has already played from that initial "most likely" place back to a provisional ball just because he has now changed his mind on what is "most likely".

[Baog]

10 minutes ago, Fourputt said:

The point is that he can't start his search in one place (because that is the what he initially considers "most likely") then rescind that after taking 3 or four minutes and go forward to search in another area without the clock continuing to tick.

My point is that the player should be free to decide for himself where to search. I agree that he can't take a time-out to hit the provisional or ex post facto change his definition of the likely area. DaveP043 seemed to be saying that there was something wrong with making a second provisional stroke before spending the entire 5 minutes searching in an area Dave thought it was actually unlikely to be.

[DeadMan]

1 hour ago, Baog said:

My point is that the player should be free to decide for himself where to search. I agree that he can't take a time-out to hit the provisional or ex post facto change his definition of the likely area. DaveP043 seemed to be saying that there was something wrong with making a second provisional stroke before spending the entire 5 minutes searching in an area Dave thought it was actually unlikely to be.

I think playing partners would have a say, too. In this hypothetical, your partners would be telling you that there basically no chance the ball ended up by the green. The player is not the ultimate arbiter of where the likely area is.

In reality, this is isn't going to be a problem. Players aren't going to search an unlikely area to take advantage of that, because that means they won't find their ball!

I could see a case where the player stops looking, having given up, then finds his ball and claims it to be likely later, even though it's clear that the ball was rarely going to be where he found it. I'm not explaining that well, but hopefully you get the point. I'd think if the player claims that, his playing partners would disagree, and the player would be subject to pretty harsh penalties.

[natureboy]

4 hours ago, DaveP043 said:

I think everyone has agreed that its not likely for a ball to hit the cart path and run an extra 200 yards.  Therefore, no matter how you phrase it, you'd be outside of the rules to continue playing your provisional in the way you suggest.  However, if your provisional is about even with the original ball's "likely" location, its within the rules to play it.  "About even" is not "nearer to the hole".  However, he'd still have to find his original ball, in its unlikely location, within 5 minutes of starting his search, otherwise his provisional becomes the ball in play.

 

4 hours ago, Abu3baid said:

In that case I would just say that I believe my ball went down the cart path and I'm going to go search for it next to the green.. Take my 5 minutes of searching there and then come back and play the provisional.. Isn't it exactly the same thing?  Except in the first instance I saved a few minutes as I have already advanced my provisional before searching near the green?

 

I think these are both valid points. You certainly can search for the ball in that 'what if' location by the green. The 5 minutes is yours. However, to avoid the penalty and find the ball, where would you spend the bulk of your time? In a tournament, in the OP scenario with an extreme landscape bias toward the path, I think it could be fruitful to ask any spectators / others willing to search to check that area. But I think it makes the most sense for the player and caddy to focus their limited time around the sighted landing area - accounting for landscape influenced bounce and roll - especially if it's dense.

[DaveP043]

17 hours ago, Baog said:

My point is that the player should be free to decide for himself where to search. I agree that he can't take a time-out to hit the provisional or ex post facto change his definition of the likely area. DaveP043 seemed to be saying that there was something wrong with making a second provisional stroke before spending the entire 5 minutes searching in an area Dave thought it was actually unlikely to be.

I may not have been clear.  My point is that  its perfectly acceptable to play a second shot with the provisional (as long as its within the rules, and @Fourputt has clarified what the rules say) prior to beginning the search for the ball.  Once you start searching, you can search anywhere you choose to, the 5 minutes is yours to use as you see fit.  In fact, I believe that its more efficient, time-wise, to do it that way, and I think that's the reason the rules allow you to continue playing your provisional up to a certain point without having the provisional become the ball in play.

17 hours ago, Fourputt said:

Note that it says "from the place where the original ball is likely to be".  Making a stroke from that place would make the provisional ball the ball in play and the original ball is lost.

Obviously, @Fourputt is right, I read the decision in the OP and didn't look at the wording in the actual rule.  This is where a certain amount of judgement comes in, since the "likely" location of the original isn't known with any precision.  With a loosely-defined "likely" location, as showing in the original post, when do you say that the provisional is "where the original is likely to be"?  Is it the beginning of the likely zone, or the other end?  Similarly, the provisional in the fairway is not "where the original is", as the original was headed 20 yards or so further left.  My interpretation, and I could be wrong, is that as long as the provisional isn't clearly closer to the hole than the original, its OK to play it without making it the ball in play.  Its 20 yards from the "likely" location of the original, and isn't closer to the hole. 

[Fourputt]

30 minutes ago, DaveP043 said:

I may not have been clear.  My point is that  its perfectly acceptable to play a second shot with the provisional (as long as its within the rules, and @Fourputt has clarified what the rules say) prior to beginning the search for the ball.  Once you start searching, you can search anywhere you choose to, the 5 minutes is yours to use as you see fit.  In fact, I believe that its more efficient, time-wise, to do it that way, and I think that's the reason the rules allow you to continue playing your provisional up to a certain point without having the provisional become the ball in play.

Obviously, @Fourputt is right, I read the decision in the OP and didn't look at the wording in the actual rule.  This is where a certain amount of judgement comes in, since the "likely" location of the original isn't known with any precision.  With a loosely-defined "likely" location, as showing in the original post, when do you say that the provisional is "where the original is likely to be"?  Is it the beginning of the likely zone, or the other end?  Similarly, the provisional in the fairway is not "where the original is", as the original was headed 20 yards or so further left.  My interpretation, and I could be wrong, is that as long as the provisional isn't clearly closer to the hole than the original, its OK to play it without making it the ball in play.  Its 20 yards from the "likely" location of the original, and isn't closer to the hole. 

Just because you hooked your original ball 40 yards into the rough doesn't mean that your provisional ball in the fairway can be played without consideration for the phrase " If he makes a stroke with the provisional ball from the place where the original ball is likely to be ".  The obvious intent of this statement refers to distance from the hole, not actual physical location on the course.  If the provisional ball is near the same distance from the hole as where the original ball is likely to lie, then the rule applies.  It doesn't matter that there is a 60 yard spread between the balls.  

I've actually had a case where I played the provisional ball 3 times before I got to the area where I began my search for the original ball.  In that case, the two balls were never even on the same side of the hole.  The first one was yanked 50 yards left, and the second was pushed right and then poorly struck twice in fairly thick rough before I got it back in play.  (Happily I found the original in play and was able to abandon the provisional after all of that).  

My point is that while provisional ball was never even close to the line of the original ball, it was clearly farther from the hole until after I played my third shot with it.  After the third shot it was finally back on the edge of the fairway and about equidistant from the hole from where I started my search for the original ball. Even though it was still 70 yards right of the line of the original, I was not allowed another "free" stroke with it until I made my search without the provisional ball becoming the ball in play.  In such a case you make a reasonable estimate, but the wise player makes that estimate conservatively so as not to bring into question whether or not he played from a spot closer to the hole.  

I've had any number of times where the provisional ball appeared to still be slightly farther from the hole, but I elected not to take the chance on playing it before searching.  I feel that such caution is just smart golf.

[turtleback]

On 12/11/2015 at 10:30 AM, Golfingdad said:

What is it that you're not "buying?"

You asked 2 questions.  First what does likely mean.  I think I answered that.

The second was:

Quote

Would my just having those thoughts CHANGE the definition in this scenario?

 And it is the idea that having these thoughts changes anything that I do not buy.  Once you find the ball it is 100% likely to be where it is.  But that doesn't mean it was likely to be there 5 minutes before you found it.  Things that are not likely happen all the time.  Just because something happens, that does not mean that it was likely to happen.The fact that you can figure out how something got where it is does not mean it was likely that it got to where it is, beforehand.

I also reject the premise that having hit a drive to, e.g.,, the left, even on a course you know exquisitely well, it would even be possible to come to the conclusion that it was likely that the ball ended up 500 yards away near the green.  If that was the case everyone would hilt their drives to the left on that curse and get the "likely" bounce and roll up near the green.  You might think it possible, but likely?

I am also unpersuaded by the thought "if it ended on the cart path it is likely to be by the green." because it is not likely that it ended on the cartpath.  If it was really likely that a shot hit there would end up on the cartpath and if so it was likely that it ends up near the green then again, everyone would hit their drives in that direction.  Something that is likely only if something very unlikely happens first, is not really likely in my book.  

Edited December 12, 2015 by turtleback
spelling and clarification

[Golfingdad]

32 minutes ago, turtleback said:

You asked 2 questions.  First what does likely mean.  I think I answered that.

The second was:

 And it is the idea that having these thoughts changes anything that I do not buy.  Once you find the ball it is 100% likely to be where it is.  But that doesn't mean it was likely to be there 5 minutes before you found it.  Things that are not likely happen all the time.  Just because something happens, that does not mean that it was likely to happen.The fact that you can figure out how something got where it is does not mean it was likely that it got to where it is, beforehand.

I also reject the premise that having hit a drive to, e.g.,, the left, even on a course you know exquisitely well, it would even be possible to come to the conclusion that it was likely that the ball ended up 500 yards away near the green.  If that was the case everyone would hilt their drives to the left on that curse and get the "likely" bounce and roll up near the green.  You might think it possible, but likely?

I am also unpersuaded by the thought "if it ended on the cart path it is likely to be by the green." because it is not likely that it ended on the cartpath.  If it was really likely that a shot hit there would end up on the cartpath and if so it was likely that it ends up near the green then again, everyone would hit their drives in that direction.  Something that is likely only if something very unlikely happens first, is not really likely in my book.  

I'm just asking questions and trying to learn.  I'm not "selling" anything or trying to persuade. Your phrasing is giving off an odd, almost accusatory vibe.

Also of note to you and others; I only mentioned the actual ball location 500 yards away as a bit of a funny anecdote and to sort of show where I came up with this scenario - but the questions were all related to the hypothetical, not the actual.

[DaveP043]

On 12/12/2015 at 10:30 AM, Fourputt said:

Just because you hooked your original ball 40 yards into the rough doesn't mean that your provisional ball in the fairway can be played without consideration for the phrase " If he makes a stroke with the provisional ball from the place where the original ball is likely to be ".  The obvious intent of this statement refers to distance from the hole, not actual physical location on the course.  If the provisional ball is near the same distance from the hole as where the original ball is likely to lie, then the rule applies.  It doesn't matter that there is a 60 yard spread between the balls.  

My point is that while provisional ball was never even close to the line of the original ball, it was clearly farther from the hole until after I played my third shot with it.  After the third shot it was finally back on the edge of the fairway and about equidistant from the hole from where I started my search for the original ball. Even though it was still 70 yards right of the line of the original, I was not allowed another "free" stroke with it until I made my search without the provisional ball becoming the ball in play.  In such a case you make a reasonable estimate, but the wise player makes that estimate conservatively so as not to bring into question whether or not he played from a spot closer to the hole.  

I've had any number of times where the provisional ball appeared to still be slightly farther from the hole, but I elected not to take the chance on playing it before searching.  I feel that such caution is just smart golf.

I'm not sure I agree with the portions that I've bolded here.  The ruling bodies are generally pretty precise in wording the rules to indicate their intentions.  In this case, they certainly could have said that the provisional ball becomes the ball in play if its played from a point "equidistant or closer to the hole" than where the original ball is likely to be.  They chose NOT to write the rule that way.  I don't believe that I, or any other individual player, should be the one deciding what the ruling bodies intended, especially if that inferred intention is somewhat different from the exact wording of the rule.  Consequently, I read the rule as exactly what the words say, the provisional becomes the ball in play if it's played from either the likely location of the original, or someplace closer to the hole.  If its equidistant from the hole, but clearly not on the same line, the specific wording of the rules indicate to me that its OK to play the provisional without causing it to become the ball in play. This is really picking nits, since we don't know with any certainty where the original is likely to be.

I have no problem with the way you've played these situation, certainly you've been within the rules.  On the other hand, I'll give the benefit of the doubt to someone playing his provisional from about the same distance to the hole as where we expect to find his original ball.  If its about the same distance, or a farther, its fine with me, and I believe its within the rules.  When he's clearly closer to the hole, I'll make sure he understands what the rules say.