What Would a 20.1 (see post #95) Index Shoot at a Local U.S. Open Qualifier Site?

[iacas]

6 hours ago, MacDutch said:

No, that is incorrect. The 127 we are chatting about is a strokeplay score. A 20 capper is likely to have a couple of blowup holes, so the 127 could also be (much) lower then a 40 differential.

You're missing the point that for a true 20.1 to shoot anything even close to a 40 differential (which is a 127 on a 75.3/145 course, assuming no ESC), it's so far out of what would or should normally be expected that it's not worth considering a hole or two where he gets an eight or a nine. I mean… a 36 differential (with ESC applied on a few holes) is basically as unlikely as a 40 differential.

FWIW, a 20.1's index would give him an ESC of about 8.

It's all moot though since the guy's a 27 or something…

6 hours ago, MacDutch said:

And it's not only a question of math. We were trying to get the guy in the same mood as when playing a qualifier.

You don't know what his mood would be.

6 hours ago, MacDutch said:

Tension is higher, he will break down because of his lack of experience and lack of technique to get out of trouble.

Again, it's all moot now, because he's not a 20.1 index, but… I don't agree that the "pressure" is going to take someone from a 20.1 index to a 35+ differential round. That's a huge leap.

[MacDutch]

5 hours ago, iacas said:

You're missing the point that for a true 20.1 to shoot anything even close to a 40 differential (which is a 127 on a 75.3/145 course, assuming no ESC), it's so far out of what would or should normally be expected that it's not worth considering a hole or two where he gets an eight or a nine. I mean… a 36 differential (with ESC applied on a few holes) is basically as unlikely as a 40 differential.

FWIW, a 20.1's index would give him an ESC of about 8.

Well, I was not missing that point. I am well aware of the differential and the way the usga-handicap system works.

You expect ESC will not play an important role, where I expect it does. 

[iacas]

16 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

Well, I was not missing that point. I am well aware of the differential and the way the usga-handicap system works.

You expect ESC will not play an important role, where I expect it does. 

Thing is, we have statistics on this kind of thing. ESC isn't at all likely to be a big factor.

Even though a golfer is most likely going to need ESC on the ten "worst" rounds (i.e. a 20.1 might average 26.1 in his ten worst rounds), without ESC that "anti-handicap" isn't going to increase more than about 3-4%. Might a few holes be affected by ESC? Sure. But the guy will also make a few 3s or 4s to balance them out, too, and it's a LONG way to go from a 20.1 to a 36-post-ESC-calculated differential.

He'd have to have a statistically VERY rare round. It's not really about expectations… more about the statistical probabilities.

(Again, all this is moot, because the guy in question isn't an actual 20.1 index.)

[Patch]

Kind of an interesting thread. Back in the day when I was a solid 5.8 player, I was able to play a USO qualifier course about 14 hours after the the event was over. Nothing was changed other than 14 hours of growth by the grasses during the night. As I recall it was some where in the 7300 yard range. 

I shot an 89, and I got that by making 30' putt on the last hole. The greens were still tough to guage speed on. The rough, when I missed a fairway owned me. The length was not too much of a factor, only because I barely had enough length to get by. An extra 10-20 yards off some of the tees might have save me as much 5 strokes, but I don't know that for sure. 

I know I walked off the course knowing that the pretty goodgame I had, was no where near ready for prime time play. 

If I had to guess on a 20.1 player, I'd probably guess maybe something around 117-120 range.

[Groundhog34]

No one to my knowledge has addressed this:length. I am a 70 year old with a very high single digit  index. I am a 9.8 from the 6200 yard tees. From 7000 yards who knows but my guess is I 6 to 9 strokes higher, When a play from the tips wit my nephews I am happy to break 90. So he is a 20 but from what tees?

[iacas]

36 minutes ago, Groundhog34 said:

No one to my knowledge has addressed this:length. I am a 70 year old with a very high single digit  index. I am a 9.8 from the 6200 yard tees. From 7000 yards who knows but my guess is I 6 to 9 strokes higher, When a play from the tips wit my nephews I am happy to break 90. So he is a 20 but from what tees?

Your index doesn't change depending on the tees. You're a 9.8 from any set of tees. Your course handicap changes based on the slope (not the course rating).

It's a great system for having only two numbers (course rating/slope), but yes, if you're an anomaly (relatively low handicap, but really short off the tee) you can find that things don't work out quite as smoothly, but it works pretty well for most people, and I don't think this guy is a short hitter (though again he's also not a 20.1 index).

[MacDutch]

Playing a 75.3/145 course would give him (as a 20.1 index) 30 strokes as playing handicap. ESC score would be 9.

If his true hcp would be 26.1, his playing hcp would be 38. Thats a score of 110 to play to his handicap. I would not hesitate to make the bet that he does not break 127 on his first attempt playing strokeplay by the rules of golf.

Are you in for some kind of bet @iacas ? Just for fun and bragging rights. 

 

[onthehunt526]

Just reading through some of Erik's posts, and he would know a lot (he is a course rater you know, in addition to the other endeavors of his). A legit 20.1 handicap in a local qualifier, would probably at least be on double bogey golf. So 106-108. He breaks 127 on almost every occasion.

Hell I'm an 8.1 HI and I might shoot almost 100 in a USGA qualifier of any kind, because I can't hit a full shot with a wedge to save my life. (I just stopped trying to do it for the time being, working on using my imagination and partial wedges and extended pitches for now).

If said 20.1 index has a good day, hits a couple GIR, keeps the ball in front of him. He would maybe turn in about a 95. 

Normal day like I said 105-110.

Bad day maybe 115-120. (He'd have a bulk discount on the number of shots he played.)

[grubby98]

Enjoy reading this post.  I am ready to get details of the match in a few weeks once it is complete.  If I had to bet I would say he would break 127, but it will be very close, depends on how he is playing leading up and the weather that day.  Plus if it is close and he is a "give me" putter inside 2-3 feet, I bet he misses quit a few of those if any break and the greens are fast.

[Groundhog34]

11 hours ago, iacas said:

Your index doesn't change depending on the tees. You're a 9.8 from any set of tees. Your course handicap changes based on the slope (not the course rating).

It's a great system for having only two numbers (course rating/slope), but yes, if you're an anomaly (relatively low handicap, but really short off the tee) you can find that things don't work out quite as smoothly, but it works pretty well for most people, and I don't think this guy is a short hitter (though again he's also not a 20.1 index).

All true but he is not getting any strokes this is a pure score round. My point is a 20 handicap from the 6100 yard tees is probably a 25 or 27 from 7100 yard tees. Plus the rules of golf will add a few strokes. No gimmes or drops for lost ball "where it went out" stroke and distance. He better hope the first tee does not call for a 235 carry over water

[iacas]

6 hours ago, MacDutch said:

Playing a 75.3/145 course would give him (as a 20.1 index) 30 strokes as playing handicap. ESC score would be 9.

No.

20.1 x 145 / 113 = 26 (25.79 rounds up).

3 hours ago, grubby98 said:

Enjoy reading this post.  I am ready to get details of the match in a few weeks once it is complete.  If I had to bet I would say he would break 127, but it will be very close, depends on how he is playing leading up and the weather that day.  Plus if it is close and he is a "give me" putter inside 2-3 feet, I bet he misses quit a few of those if any break and the greens are fast.

Are you basing this on him being a 20.1 or a 27 as he "might" actually be?

12 minutes ago, Groundhog34 said:

All true but he is not getting any strokes this is a pure score round. My point is a 20 handicap from the 6100 yard tees is probably a 25 or 27 from 7100 yard tees. Plus the rules of golf will add a few strokes. No gimmes or drops for lost ball "where it went out" stroke and distance. He better hope the first tee does not call for a 235 carry over water

That's why I clarified earlier in the discussion whether he was an actual 20.1. He's not, so I lost almost all interest in the actual situation at that point.

We can only discuss probabilities or math or whatever assuming he's got a legit index. That means following the rules, etc.

Also, @Groundhog34, some golfers fare better from farther tees against the rating/slope. It's not uncommon for longer hitting higher handicappers. 

[MacDutch]

21 minutes ago, iacas said:

No.

20.1 x 145 / 113 = 26 (25.79 rounds up).

No.

(75.3 - 72) + 20.1 = 23.4

23.4 x 145 / 113 = 30 ( 30.03).

cr is a factor in the equation, at least that was (and still is in Europe).

Edited June 2, 2017 by MacDutch

[David in FL]

35 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

No.

(75.3 - 72) + 20.1 = 23.4

23.4 x 145 / 113 = 30 ( 30.03).

cr is a factor in the equation, at least that was (and still is in Europe).

CR isn't a factor in determining course handicap with the USGA system.  Slope only.

 

[MacDutch]

8 minutes ago, David in FL said:

CR isn't a factor in determining course handicap with the USGA system.  Slope only.

 

Ok, I stand corrected. Thanks thats new to me. Off topic, but cr is part of computing the differential, so I find that strange.

[iacas]

47 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

cr is a factor in the equation, at least that was (and still is in Europe).

Course rating hasn't been a factor in determinimg the course handicap for at least 25 years in the U.S.

Just now, MacDutch said:

Ok, I stand corrected. Thanks thats new to me. Off topic, but cr is part of computing the differential, so I find that strange.

It's not strange if you think about it.

Think about what a scratch handicap means, and what the slope and course rating signify.

[MacDutch]

3 minutes ago, iacas said:

Course rating hasn't been a factor in determinimg the course handicap for at least 25 years in the U.S.

It's not strange if you think about it.

Read more  

 

Ok, the guy gets a course handicap of 26 and his exact handicap is 20.1. Then he shoots his handicap, +26, a score of 98. 

Now we determine his differential for this round: (98 - 75.3) x 113/145 = 17.7

I don't get it. 

[iacas]

1 minute ago, MacDutch said:

Ok, the guy gets a course handicap of 26 and his exact handicap is 20.1. Then he shoots his handicap, +26, a score of 98. 

Now we determine his differential for this round: (98 - 75.3) x 113/145 = 17.7

I don't get it. 

What does the scratch guy shoot to play to his handicap? What would his differential be?

[David in FL]

1 minute ago, MacDutch said:

Ok, I stand corrected. Thanks thats new to me. Off topic, but cr is part of computing the differential, so I find that strange.

Honestly, I've never quite understood the reasoning either.  It may be to provide a little more benefit to one player or another in the conversion.

I'm sure that someone smarter than me can answer the question...