2017 Memorial Tournament

[Aguirre]

First, that's a small sample size to expect anything concrete from your regression analysis. But, take note of the average of rounds 1& 2, vs the average of rounds 3 & 4. Note how the former is significantly higher. This is because PGA Tour events have a cut. So if you're going to do that sort of analysis (prize money won), you're going to find that rounds 1 & 2 will always have a higher correlation. 

Maybe compare rounds 3 & 4 over a periods of years. Or better yet, look at each PGA Tour winner over about 10 years and see where they ranked in scoring average per round in the years they've won tournaments.

Edited June 5, 2017 by Aguirre

[chspeed]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Rickie enters the final round near the top of a lot of leaderboards because he scores well, relative to his peers, in the first three rounds. Do you agree?

Then on Sunday he slides down the leaderboard as many people pass him by - 97 people have lower final-round scoring averages.

My question about Fowler was one of curiosity. Yes, of course. It's clear that in Fowler's case his last round is the issue. However, I think that the analysis raises the possibility that, on average, players "lose" on Thursday more than they "lose" on Sunday.

1 hour ago, iacas said:

In terms of other nits at which to pick… consider that players will generally have lower third- and final-round scoring averages because they only get to add rounds to that category when they're playing well enough to have made the cut. That bit of information throws off the calculations a bit.

The median value of the first and second rounds is 71.06 and 71.08, but for the third and fourth rounds we see median values of 70.83 and 70.92. They're lower, as you'd expect.

Yes, good point.

1 hour ago, Aguirre said:

First, that's a small sample size to expect anything concrete from your regression analysis.

Granted it's not big, but 200 data points can show something.

1 hour ago, Aguirre said:

But, take note of the average of rounds 1& 2, vs the average of rounds 3 & 4. Note how the former is significantly higher. This is because PGA Tour events have a cut.

Agreed - @iacas pointed this out as well.

Edited June 6, 2017 by chspeed

[iacas]

2 minutes ago, chspeed said:

My question about Fowler was one of curiosity. Yes, of course. It's clear that in Fowler's case his last round is the issue. However, I think that the analysis raises the possibility that, on average, players "lose" on Thursday more than they "lose" on Sunday.

Maybe.

But I was just talking about Fowler. When you're 98th, a lot of people are passing you by. It's tough to hold onto a lead when you're getting passed by people left and right…

[chspeed]

7 minutes ago, iacas said:

Maybe.

But I was just talking about Fowler. When you're 98th, a lot of people are passing you by. It's tough to hold onto a lead when you're getting passed by people left and right…

Agreed. And he's been playing very well. Even with those last rounds , he's having a pretty decent year. One win, 6 top 10s!

[Buckeyebowman]

12 hours ago, zipazoid said:

Loved how Duf kept saying essentially the same answer after he shot the 77 on Saturday - 

"I just shot a 77 and still have a chance to win the tournament."

And he did. That's sort of a US Open-type course in that everyone eventually found trouble, and everyone had their run of bad holes. Duf had his on Saturday & he was totally accepting of it, then shoots a 68 on Sunday to win by 3. Dufnering!

This reminds me of Seve Ballesteros' interview at the Master after he four putted a green, and some ignoramus reporter asked him how that happened. Seve replied, "I putt and miss, I putt and miss, I putt and miss, I putt and make!"

8 hours ago, iacas said:

What do you mean?

If you're 98th on Sundays, a lot of people are passing you by. That's the simple nature of it. He's top 30-ish the first three rounds.

Reminds me of a local product, Jason Kokrak. He's made the cut in a couple of tourneys lately, including the Memorial. In both cases he went backwards over the weekend! In the prior tourney he shot 2 over on Saturday and even on Sunday. But, he cashed a check for well in excess of $300K, so he did alright.

At the Memorial he was 6 under going into Sunday. Proceeded to shoot 6 over to finish at even par! Cost himself a lot of money on Sunday! The weekend is where the rubber meets the road!

[Vinsk]

5 hours ago, iacas said:

Rickie's not getting it done on Sundays. He's a stroke and a half worse on Sundays, and consequently, is failing to close out tournaments.

Erik, have you noticed anything specific as far as Ricky's 4th round play that collapses? I'm wondering where, if any, he's particularly struggling on Sundays?

[iacas]

7 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Erik, have you noticed anything specific as far as Ricky's 4th round play that collapses? I'm wondering where, if any, he's particularly struggling on Sundays?

No. I don't watch much golf. I just noticed that stat when they mentioned it during the telecast. I was watching to see if they'd show the crane catching fish on the 14th hole. I know they filmed it. They never seemed to show it.

[boogielicious]

6 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Erik, have you noticed anything specific as far as Ricky's 4th round play that collapses? I'm wondering where, if any, he's particularly struggling on Sundays?

In this tournament, he was missing long or left on the back nine. A lot of players were long. The air was humid after the first delay. Not sure if that contributed, but it seems odd that so many were over shooting the greens. Ricky may have just been amped or being aggressive.

[Vinsk]

3 hours ago, boogielicious said:

In this tournament, he was missing long or left on the back nine. A lot of players were long. The air was humid after the first delay. Not sure if that contributed, but it seems odd that so many were over shooting the greens. Ricky may have just been amped or being aggressive.

Yeah well I'm sure Ricky was thinking Duf is on a bogey track so he wanted to give it his best to birdie and even it up. Ricky didn't over cook his shot though, not distance wise. He just plain pulled it. Actually wasn't too far off but just off at one of the worst possible spots to be (green side thick rough hitting to down slope on fast green.) Like Erik said thought the stats are showing Ricky struggles on Sunday. So it's a mental issue and I guess that means any part of his game could suffer at any given point in the round. OT: Dufner appears to be getting his belly back!

Edited June 6, 2017 by Vinsk

[boogielicious]

2 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Yeah well I'm sure Ricky was thinking Duf is on a bogey track so he wanted to give it his best to birdie and even it up. Ricky didn't over cook his shot though, not distance wise. He just plain pulled it. Actually wasn't too far off but just off at one of the worst possible spots to be (green side thick rough hitting to down slope on fast green.) Like Erik said thought the stats are showing Ricky struggles on Sunday. So it's a mental issue and I guess that means any part of his game could suffer at any given point in the round. OT: Dufner appears to be getting his belly back!

I agree on the 18th, but some earlier holes he was long. The pull may have been a tad too much effort. Still a fun tournament to watch.