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Posted

So, there's going to be a lot of interesting things happening the rest of July…

Mid-July: 2021-22 NHL schedule release

July 21: 2021 NHL Expansion Draft (Seattle), 8 p.m. (ESPN2)

July 23: Round 1 of the 2021 NHL Draft, 8 p.m. (ESPN2)

July 24: Rounds 2-7 of the 2021 NHL Draft, 11 a.m. (NHL Network)

July 28: Free agency opens, 12 p.m.

Mid-September: NHL Prospects Showcase in Tampa

Mid-Late September: Training camp begins

Late September: 2021 preseason begins

Mid-October: 2021-22 regular season begins


Some things have already begun happening:

 

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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Posted

Okay, I said I'd do this for the 2019-20 hockey year but I evidently didn't.  Or maybe it was the year before.  I do want to know more about hockey and be able to watch it and understand what's going on.

Early last summer, I read more than half of the The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL.  I really enjoyed the history parts.  I read about two chapters of Take Your Eye Off the Puck, but I discovered that unless I watched a few games shortly thereafter, I couldn't really understand what I had read;  watching rest of the 2019-20 hockey season, or any 2020-21 hockey, with a friend in person was not going to happen, and I really fell off.  So hopefully this season I can start again.  

And now I have two hockey hats (instead of the one), although that was true last year at this time (I gave blood at the Pond back in late Spring 2020, and they gave a Ducks hat to everyone who did so).

However, last season I did accomplish something positive, hockey-related.  A friend of mine (the one who gave me the two books above, probably the only one of my close in-person friends who is into hockey) and I were in line for food a few months ago and my phone message alert went off.  It wasn't an important message, but I ad-libbed to my friend that hey, the NHL is replacing their director of player safety.  I paused a second and pretended to read the name "Thomas Wilson" as the replacement, and then he realized I was making a joke.

Anyway, so I guess I'll say the same thing, and hopefully this time it happens, let's try for this upcoming season.  I'll get some homework about it done between now and late September. 

-- Michael | My swing! 

"You think you're Jim Furyk. That's why your phone is never charged." - message from my mother

Driver:  Titleist 915D2.  4-wood:  Titleist 917F2.  Titleist TS2 19 degree hybrid.  Another hybrid in here too.  Irons 5-U, Ping G400.  Wedges negotiable (currently 54 degree Cleveland, 58 degree Titleist) Edel putter. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Shindig said:

Anyway, so I guess I'll say the same thing, and hopefully this time it happens, let's try for this upcoming season.  I'll get some homework about it done between now and late September. 

Compared to American football it isn't that complicated. ... Guess it is what you grow up with.

You want to do it big time, learn to ice skate. Didn't know what those guys could really do untill I tried it myself. It's a whole new level of appreciation.

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  • Moderator
Posted

As I understand it, buying out Parise and Suter was basically a now or never situation. The dead cap hit seems large but the way the numbers work out, they gain the most in immediate relief by doing it this year as opposed to next, and now they can protect Dumba in the expansion draft.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

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  • Administrator
Posted
11 minutes ago, billchao said:

As I understand it, buying out Parise and Suter was basically a now or never situation. The dead cap hit seems large but the way the numbers work out, they gain the most in immediate relief by doing it this year as opposed to next, and now they can protect Dumba in the expansion draft.

Yeah. But man, $15M in dead cap for two years? When the cap will be under $85M probably? That's ~18%.

Was a dumb deal when they made it, and in a year or two, they're going to suffer for it.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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  • Moderator
Posted
1 hour ago, iacas said:

Yeah. But man, $15M in dead cap for two years? When the cap will be under $85M probably? That's ~18%.

Was a dumb deal when they made it, and in a year or two, they're going to suffer for it.

I think everyone knew the last years of those deals were going to bite them in the ass, one way or another.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

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  • Administrator
Posted
5 minutes ago, billchao said:

I think everyone knew the last years of those deals were going to bite them in the ass, one way or another.

Yeah.

Someone asked about the only long-term deals that worked out for the teams. I think someone said Ovechkin… and one other person. I forget who right now.

Crosby's deal has been good. Malkin too. But those weren't the same level as Suter/Parise/Ovie/etc.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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Posted

Well I gotta say all this has me wanting to start watching hockey. At least it’s face paced and plenty of action. I need to give it a try.

:ping: G25 Driver Stiff :ping: G20 3W, 5W :ping: S55 4-W (aerotech steel fiber 110g shafts) :ping: Tour Wedges 50*, 54*, 58* :nike: Method Putter Floating clubs: :edel: 54* trapper wedge

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  • Moderator
Posted
7 minutes ago, iacas said:

Yeah.

Someone asked about the only long-term deals that worked out for the teams. I think someone said Ovechkin… and one other person. I forget who right now.

Crosby's deal has been good. Malkin too. But those weren't the same level as Suter/Parise/Ovie/etc.

The Hossa deal worked out great for Chicago. But if you’re specifically talking about long term contracts where the players remained productive, I can’t think of any other players atm.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

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Posted
2 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well I gotta say all this has me wanting to start watching hockey. At least it’s face paced and plenty of action. I need to give it a try.

 

  Do it, man.  The ice is calling you.

  I was reading on another site that the schedule for this year presented to the general managers has a break for Olympic hockey.   Just my opinion, but I hope it doesn't pan out. 

  I've never really cared for the international play when it comes to the league shutting down for a few weeks.  The only parts of it I find enjoyable is when a team  from the fringes score an upset or battle a close game against the stacked ones.

  As for the two somewhat big news stories so far, I'll give Keith about twenty five games before I make any decisions.  It's been a while since Edmonton had an experienced blue liner mentor the squad.  They tried with Andrew Ference, but between he and Dallas the wonderkid Eakins that failed horribly. 

  Absolutely crap deal for the Oilers in that Chicago isn't retaining a penny of Keiths contract.

  I wonder if Parise goes back to New Jersey or if Lou tries to sign him cheap in Long Island.

 

Corey

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  • Moderator
Posted
5 hours ago, Warren Zevon said:

I was reading on another site that the schedule for this year presented to the general managers has a break for Olympic hockey.   Just my opinion, but I hope it doesn't pan out. 

It’s a pretty important point for the players. I’m pretty sure it’s in the CBA.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

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Posted

Just saw the Montreal players that the Kraken will have available for the expansion draft, starting with Carey Price.  The thought seems to be that Seattle won't want that big contract he'd come with. Shea Weber and Paul Byron are also among the exposed.

Still got to be a heck of a thing for fans of those old expansion doormat teams (think first-year Sens or Caps) to see these newcomers get such favorable treatment.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Well, it's good to see the league in general absolutely lose its mind today.  I can't remember seeing a busier  day of free agency in all my decades watching the sport.

Corey

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

RIP Tony

Quote

Hall of Fame goaltender who played almost his entire 16-year career with the Blackhawks, has died.

 

Johnny Rocket - Let's Rock and Roll and play some golf !!!

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • Administrator
Posted

 

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

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  • 1 month later...
  • Administrator
Posted

Carey Price is taking some time off to deal with some mental health stuff.

This clip deserves a watch, with the sound. And if you don't at least tear up a bit, consider leaving TST and never coming back. 😛

 

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Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

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Posted

Wow. Hockey season is here.

Jake Allen and Sam Montembault to defend the net.

Here we go.

 

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  • Moderator
Posted

Comcast’s agreement with MSG Networks ended on 9/30, so I can’t even watch the Devils play as of now.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

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    • This is one of the cleanest, least emotional ways to separate the Nicklaus–Tiger debate, because international participation is a direct proxy for field depth. Not vibes. Not nostalgia. Talent supply. Below is a tight, historically grounded explanation of how field strength changed — with special emphasis on how many non-U.S. players were actually in PGA TOUR fields, and what that means competitively for Jack Nicklaus vs Tiger Woods. 1. Why international share = field strength (conceptually) The PGA TOUR doesn’t draft players. It selects talent from a global labor market. So: more international players in the field from more countries who earned access through competitive tours → means a deeper, harder field, even if total field size stays the same. International share isn’t cosmetic — it’s how globalization enters the win-probability math. 2. Nicklaus era (roughly mid-1960s to early-1980s) International presence in PGA TOUR fields ~2–5% of players in a typical PGA TOUR field Often 5–8 non-U.S. players in a 140-player event Many weeks: fewer than five Who those internationals were Gary Player occasional Europeans (Seve later, Woosnam briefly) a handful of Australians or South Africans Crucially: They were elite imports, not a broad middle class. What that means for field strength The top of the field was excellent The middle and bottom were shallow After ~10–12 legitimate contenders, win equity dropped sharply This is why Nicklaus: contended constantly piled up runner-ups remained relevant for decades The field simply didn’t replenish elite threats fast enough. 3. Transition era (late-1980s to early-1990s) This is the inflection point. Structural changes Official World Golf Ranking (post-1986) European Tour becomes a true pipeline Easier travel, better incentives to cross over International share ~8–12% of PGA TOUR fields Now 15–20 non-U.S. players per event Importantly: not just stars, but solid Tour-caliber pros This is when field strength begins to compound. 4. Tiger Woods era (late-1990s through early-2010s peak) International presence explodes ~25–35% of PGA TOUR fields Often 40–55 international players in a 156-man field Representing Europe, Australia, South Africa, Asia, Latin America This is not just more flags — it’s more win equity. Why this matters competitively The median player is better The gap between #1 and #40 shrinks Every round is contested by professionals who already won elsewhere This is what people mean by “deep fields.” 5. Side-by-side comparison (simplified but accurate) Era Intl % of.    Field Intl Players       Event Competitive Meaning Nicklaus prime ~2–5% ~5–8 Elite top, thin middle Early transition ~8–12% ~15–20 Talent thickens Tiger prime ~25–35% ~40–55 Deep, global, relentless This is a 5–7× increase in international representation from Jack’s prime to Tiger’s peak. 6. Why international % matters more than field size A 140-player field with: 8 internationals vs 50 internationals are not the same tournament, even if the entry list length is identical. More internationals means: more elite tours feeding the field more players already proven winners fewer “free” spots for the elite to separate easily This is why win probability collapses in modern golf. 7. The GOAT implication (this is the hinge) Nicklaus Beat great players But usually beat fewer elite players at once Field difficulty was top-heavy, not dense Tiger Beat great players and dozens of near-elite professionals simultaneously Field difficulty was both tall and wide Tiger’s environment: lowers win probability increases variance punishes even small declines Yet Tiger still won 22.8% of PGA TOUR starts. That’s the paradox — and the argument. 8. Why this doesn’t “discredit” Nicklaus Jack dominated his environment as well as anyone ever could. But environments matter. If you translate achievements across eras: Jack’s career length looks more impressive Tiger’s per-start dominance looks more impressive International depth is the biggest reason why. Final synthesis International share of PGA TOUR fields increased ~5–7× from Nicklaus’ prime to Tiger’s peak That increase directly correlates with field depth and difficulty Tiger won more often, by larger margins, against deeper global fields So when people say: This is what they mean — not emotionally, not rhetorically, but structurally. Below is a by-era breakdown of: International share of PGA TOUR fields International share of PGA TOUR wins Win-efficiency ratio = Win share ÷ Field share All wins counted (not unique winners). “International” = non-U.S. citizenship. This framework maps directly onto the GOAT debate between Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. International Win Share vs. Field Share by Era Era Intl % of Field   Intl % of Wins   Win Efficiency 1965–1974 (early Nicklaus) ~2–3%        ~4–6%      ~1.8–2.0× 1975–1984 (Nicklaus prime) ~3–5%       ~7–10%      ~1.8–2.3× 1985–1994 (transition) ~8–12%     ~15–22%      ~1.8–2.0× 1995–2004 (Tiger ascent/peak) ~20–25%     ~30–35%      ~1.3–1.5× 2005–2014 (Tiger era, global maturity) ~25–30%     ~35–40%      ~1.3–1.4× 2015–2025 (post-Tiger peak) ~30–35%.            ~40–45%.      ~1.25–1.35×
    • If you explicitly adjust for field strength, the Tiger–Jack debate sharpens fast — because once you weight who was in the field and how good they were, raw major counts stop being the right currency. Below is the cleanest field-strength–adjusted framework, followed by what it implies for Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus. 1. What “field strength–adjusted” actually means (no hand-waving) A serious adjustment has four components: A. Field depth How many players in the field were legitimate win threats Measured by: OWGR equivalents, historical win rates, career major contention frequency B. Field breadth How global the field was How many tours fed elite players into the event C. Win concentration How many wins a small elite captured (A win in a top-heavy field is harder than a win in a flat field) D. Margin vs. field Separation from average competitor, not just second place This is exactly how WAR-style logic works in baseball — just translated to golf. 2. Era-level field strength comparison (baseline) Think of this as “average major field difficulty”, indexed to Tiger’s peak era = 1.00. Era Relative Field Strength Early 1960s ~0.55 Late 1960s ~0.65 1970s ~0.70 Early 1980s ~0.75 Late 1980s ~0.85 1997–2008 1.00 2009–2015 ~0.95 Modern (post-2015) ~1.00–1.05 This is not controversial among historians: Global pipelines Full-time professionalism Equipment & training parity all peak in Tiger’s era. 3. Field-strength–adjusted major wins Now apply that adjustment. Raw majors Nicklaus: 18 Tiger: 15 Adjusted majors (conceptual but grounded) If you weight each major by relative field strength at the time: Nicklaus’s 18 majors ≈ 12–14 Tiger-era equivalents Tiger’s 15 majors ≈ 15–16 Tiger-era equivalents So once you normalize: And that’s before accounting for Tiger’s injuries. 4. Runner-ups and “lost wins” matter even more This is where the gap widens. Nicklaus 19 major runner-ups Many in shallower, U.S.-centric fields Variance was higher → more “near misses” Tiger Only 7 runner-ups But competed in denser elite fields Win suppression effect removed variance — fewer second places because he either won or wasn’t close If you convert: top-3s strokes behind winner field quality Tiger gains more “near-win value” per attempt than Jack. 5. Margin of dominance (this is decisive) Tiger Woods Frequently +2.5 to +3.0 strokes per round vs. field in majors at peak Largest adjusted margins ever recorded Dominance increases as field quality increases (rare!) Jack Nicklaus Elite but narrower margins Won via positioning and closing, not statistical obliteration Dominance less scalable to deeper fields If you run a WAR-style model: 6. A thought experiment that clarifies everything Ask one neutral question: He probably: contends finishes top-10 maybe wins once in a while Now reverse it: He likely: wins multiple times by historic margins and suppresses multiple Hall-of-Fame careers That asymmetry is the field-strength adjustment talking. 7. Why longevity arguments weaken after adjustment Nicklaus’s greatest edge is time. But: longevity is easier in lower-density competitive environments variance produces more chances to contend fewer global elite peers mean fewer weekly threats Tiger’s body broke down because: he pushed athletic ceilings under the most competitive conditions ever Adjusted for environment, Tiger’s shorter peak isn’t a flaw — it’s the cost of dominance. Final, adjusted verdict If you do not adjust for field strength: Nicklaus has the edge (18 > 15) If you do adjust properly: Tiger Woods becomes the GOAT Higher difficulty Higher dominance Higher efficiency per start Higher suppression of elite peers Nicklaus is the greatest career golfer. Tiger is the greatest golfer, period — once you account for who they were actually beating.
    • Day 49 - 2026-02-07 More mirror work. Back to the range tomorrow. Weight shift and slide/rotation feeling very normal now.
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