Strategy Question

[darthweasel]

Every time I head out for a round I have the "no sixes challenge" in mind...couple times I have come close but, unsurprisingly, not managed it. Brilliant challenge  and it is helping my approach I like to think in making my way around the course. Staying away from the big numbers is always good and I have found scoring 85 feels much different when there are many bogies and a blowup hole than it does when there are many pars and many doubles or worse. A combination of the swing work I have been doing and keeping this in mind has dropped me from living mid to high 90s to mid to low 80s. Enjoying the improvement. 

With that said, I am wondering people's thoughts on the following: Here in Portland, there is a course called Red Tail Golf Center. 6th hole is downhill par 3 to a green surrounded three sides by water. At the depth of the green there is maybe a 5 or 6 yard wide rough, but the angle of the hill there is such that if you land on the hill you have rinsed it and are either taking the drop or re-teeing (I always like down and distance but I see a lot of people re-tee). The green itself is 2-tier with a modest amount of undulation. Hitting it short straight or left gives you bailout, although once you get far enough left there is a bunker you will need to fly to a short-sided green with water long...so not a great option.

Now, for reasons that elude me, even when I am playing well, In my last 5 trips I have been on once, missed right once where, thankfully, the rain made it soggy enough that it plugged, else it would have rinsed, and three that I put in the water. This is not good...and every time it is with a club that I am very confident in that elsewhere is very effective. In fact, I often use the same club I use on hole 2 where I am most frequently on the green.  Playing a fade, I have been aiming either center of green or left edge of green. One of them actually went long the other four have missed right.

Naturally, with this level of sucktitude, there have been a couple fives and a couple fours. The fours I can live with...the fives are what I want to avoid. So here is the strategic question: knowing how I am playing it currently, is it a mistake to intentionally lay up short counting on having a short uphill chip and most likely making four but theoretically taking the five out of play? I want to do that but have not been able to bring myself to doing it yet. There are some areas I have exhibited pretty good discipline...this feels like one where I have not. But I might be using right strategy and just be so awful at execution...I literally have a better average score on every other par three on the course, including the one that plays as much 200 with water on the right...

[iacas]

This hole?

It appears to be downhill 25 feet but "only" 175 from the back teeing area.

6 minutes ago, darthweasel said:

knowing how I am playing it currently, is it a mistake to intentionally lay up short counting on having a short uphill chip and most likely making four but theoretically taking the five out of play?

No. Perfectly good strategy if you keep averaging 4.5 or whatever. Got to get that average down below 4.

I might take enough club to get there, and then swing easy enough to lay up short. That way if you catch it it'll still get there, and if you take too little club you might "swing hard" subconsciously knowing you can't get there but almost trying to.

[p1n9183]

I don't think is poor strategy, it's just poor execution.

Going for it you averaged around 4,5 hitting 5 poor shots.
Let´s suppose now that you hit 5 good shots in the green averaging 3. That's an average of 3,75 among the 10 shots. 

Let's now change to a more conservative strategy, you hit less club to lay up, you hit the same 5 poor shots and the 5 good shots.
The 5 good shots leave you with an easy uphill approach, let say with an average of 3,60.
The 5 bad shots leave you with not that easy shots over a bunker or even a portion of water if you miss right. Let say 4 as an average (I'm been generous). 
That's an average of 3,80 within the 10 shots. That´s pretty much the same as if you go for it. You are mostly taking 5´s out of play but you are also taking a LOT of 3's out of play.

The important thing to notice here is that if you keep working on your execution you can improve your GIRs on this hole making more 3's than 4/5's and lower the average of the hole.   

[iacas]

19 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

I don't think is poor strategy, it's just poor execution.

Well of course, but the poor execution is what may necessitate a change in strategy. You can't just keep hoping to turn into Jon Rahm.

You "proved" your point but with completely made up numbers.

[Darkfrog]

3 hours ago, darthweasel said:

So here is the strategic question: knowing how I am playing it currently, is it a mistake to intentionally lay up short

There is a very similar hole at my home course (below). About 175-190 yard par-3, slightly downhill, the entire hole slopes downhill toward the green, but the green slopes up from front to back (see my hand drawn slope indicators):

My strategy is to plan to land short because I am boned in the (1) left bunker, (2) left rough/trees further left and long of the left bunker, (3) long in any direction, (4) right rough (only semi-boned, but still not a fun shot), (5) further right near cart path.

Planning to play short will usually have two outcomes.

1. When the course is dry and firm, the ball will bounce up onto the green anyways because it lands on a downslope on the fairway apron, or it will at least tend to stay short of the bunker and more penal right hand rough if the shot leaks left or right.
2. When the course is wet and soft, the ball lands short and plug/barely roll out, which leaves a much much easier short game shot.

• In either case, if I do happen to really flush the shot, because the green slopes up from front to back, if the ball does make it to the green it will usually have minimal roll out, and sometimes even roll back (unless the strike is super thin).

Ultimately, if I can execute my strategy, I am either putting for birdie, or I have what I would consider a pretty simple short game shot to get on the green, and likely make bogey in worst-case outcome.

So, I think planning to land short for your particular hole is not a bad strategy at all.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Darkfrog

[klineka]

4 hours ago, darthweasel said:

Now, for reasons that elude me, even when I am playing well, In my last 5 trips I have been on once, missed right once where, thankfully, the rain made it soggy enough that it plugged, else it would have rinsed, and three that I put in the water.

Granted 5 shots is a small sample size, but the reason  (or part of the reason) why you've hit 60% (could have been 80%) of your shots in the water is that your shot zone with whichever club you are using is simply bigger than the available area in which you have to land the ball on.

From water to water at the widest part it's only 39 yds wide, and since you said pretty much anything that misses left or right of the green will roll down into the water, that leaves you with around 25 yds at the widest point of the green. That's simply not that wide of a landing area for a 16 handicap.

4 hours ago, darthweasel said:

This is not good...and every time it is with a club that I am very confident in that elsewhere is very effective.

Just because you are confident with the particular club doesn't automatically shrink your shot zone width in half or something, you're still going to have a pretty wide shot zone due to your skill level.

If you lay up short, you drastically widen the amount of land in which you can land the ball onto and avoid the water. Avoiding the water/penalty stroke is more important than getting a GIR. 

Depending on how tall those trees are right next to the water front right of the green, you can just about double the width of a safe landing area compared to aiming for the green, going from a safe landing area of 25 yards up to a safe landing area of around 45 yards (if not even more)

 

I think your logic seems pretty solid. Leave yourself with a manageable chip after your tee shot, make absolute certainty you get the chip shot on the green (even a chip that ends up on the green but 30 feet away is better than having a second chip) and then two putt and walk away with a 4. Maybe occasionally you'll hit a chip close or hole a mid length putt to secure your 3, but as long as your chipping and lag putting are at least somewhat solid that strategy should drastically reduce the number of times you make 5 on that hole.

[GolfLug]

2 hours ago, Darkfrog said:

There is a very similar hole at my home course (below). About 175-190 yard par-3, slightly downhill, the entire hole slopes downhill toward the green, but the green slopes up from front to back (see my hand drawn slope indicators):

My strategy is to plan to land short because I am boned in the (1) left bunker, (2) left rough/trees further left and long of the left bunker, (3) long in any direction, (4) right rough (only semi-boned, but still not a fun shot), (5) further right near cart path.

Planning to play short will usually have two outcomes.

1. When the course is dry and firm, the ball will bounce up onto the green anyways because it lands on a downslope on the fairway apron, or it will at least tend to stay short of the bunker and more penal right hand rough if the shot leaks left or right.
2. When the course is wet and soft, the ball lands short and plug/barely roll out, which leaves a much much easier short game shot.

• In either case, if I do happen to really flush the shot, because the green slopes up from front to back, if the ball does make it to the green it will usually have minimal roll out, and sometimes even roll back (unless the strike is super thin).

Ultimately, if I can execute my strategy, I am either putting for birdie, or I have what I would consider a pretty simple short game shot to get on the green, and likely make bogey in worst-case outcome.

So, I think planning to land short for your particular hole is not a bad strategy at all.

I agree with your strategy from a shot zone perspective.

If attempting to hit the green (and repeatedly failing as you mentioned) brings certain death in play due to your shot zone, then yes, you have to move the 'center' of your shot zone to where you do take out certain death out of play. 

I do this routinely. See below. I aim at the right bunker on the hole below (16th hole at my home course is the toughest on the course.. 190 yards from the white tees, OB all along left, bunkers, long is death as an extremely difficult chip to a raised green, and if you fly 190+ with a 4 or a 3 iron to hit the green, it rolls off the back as it is a small green). The right bunker is the only safe place where I can be certain 8 times out of 10 I will get away with a sand shot + two putt bogey. Except for a perfectly placed long iron just short of the green between the traps ( 8-9 yards wide funnel), par is rare.    

[Double Mocha Man]

Don't aim for the green.

Aim for a blade of grass on the green.  Okay, okay, I know you can't see a blade of fescue from that distance.  So pick a tiny spot, or a tree behind the green (or even a TV tower) and focus in and aim for that.  The golf literature suggests that if you pick a small landing area you're more likely to land close to it.

[Denny Bang Bang]

@darthweasel If you’re not hitting the green or safely missing a high percentage of the time, I think your strategy is right on.  Advance the ball safely 

[darthweasel]

9 hours ago, iacas said:

This hole?

I appears to be downhill 25 feet but "only" 175 from the back teeing area.

No. Perfectly good strategy if you keep averaging 4.5 or whatever. Got to get that average down below 4.

I might take enough club to get there, and then swing easy enough to lay up short. That way if you catch it it'll still get there, and if you take too little club you might "swing hard" subconsciously knowing you can't get there but almost trying to.

that is indeed the hole. The whites on this course are 6200 and change so I almost always play from there and it is typically between 135 and 145. The one time I took the 9 I dumped it in the water behind...it was good contact, reasonable line. The PW is just...in my head I guess. That should be a scoring club but I think I will lay up for a while. 

[klineka]

5 minutes ago, darthweasel said:

The PW is just...in my head I guess. That should be a scoring club

Why? 

It's merely another club in your bag that's designed to go a specific distance and has a certain sized shot zone. 

[Zippo]

4 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

Don't aim for the green.

Aim for a blade of grass on the green.  Okay, okay, I know you can't see a blade of fescue from that distance.  So pick a tiny spot, or a tree behind the green (or even a TV tower) and focus in and aim for that.  The golf literature suggests that if you pick a small landing area you're more likely to land close to it.

The “aim small miss small” theory. 

[NI4NI]

Short term, it's always a good plan to limit the crooked score...knowing your tendencies with course management is smart.

Longer term,  gaining confidence that comes with a focus on development is the right idea...switch from minimizing loss to maximizing gain (play and mindset).

[darthweasel]

13 hours ago, klineka said:

Why? 

It's merely another club in your bag that's designed to go a specific distance and has a certain sized shot zone. 

there are some clubs I am trying to advance as far as possible without getting into ob or bad situation. Some clubs I am trying to land the green. Not that I am trying to miss with the longer of course, but the longer the club and the longer the shot, the wider area a person is likely to miss by. If I miss 10 yards right with say...my 6i from 185 I am pretty happy. That is a really nice shot for me and will help me make the best score possible. 

I am not crazy enough to think I am going to hit 80% or anything like that, but if I take the oft-used 150 and in, and I am missing by enough to draw a penalty instead of keep me in range of bogey or better...that is a problem. And identifying a problem helps me know where to devote the 65% of my practice time. Strokes gained backs that up...off the tee and short game are the weak parts. 

 

 

[klineka]

3 minutes ago, darthweasel said:

I am not crazy enough to think I am going to hit 80% or anything like that, but if I take the oft-used 150 and in, and I am missing by enough to draw a penalty instead of keep me in range of bogey or better...that is a problem. And identifying a problem helps me know where to devote the 65% of my practice time. Strokes gained backs that up...off the tee and short game are the weak parts. 

But that was kinda my point in my initial post in this topic, you aren't really "missing" per se, you're hitting it into your shot zone, but your shot zone with that particular club when centered over the green obviously has quite a good portion that is in the water as well, which is why I think it's perfectly reasonable to lay up to a yardage that takes the hazard out of play until your shot zone with that particular club shrinks enough that it makes sense to aim for the green.

I think that by having in your head that certain clubs or distances are "scoring clubs" or "scoring yardages" you might be adding unnecessary pressure to yourself or that shot. Just because you have a wedge in your hand doesn't mean you should automatically think you're going to stick it close. The PGA Tour average proximity from 100-125 yds in the fairway is 19'7", so almost 20 feet. That means plenty of times the best players in the world are hitting it outside 20 feet from 100-125 yds away, so don't add pressure to yourself by feeling that just because you have a wedge in your hand means you need to score well or hit it tight.

[saevel25]

For the yardage, if your shot zone includes a good portion of the water and bunker, then I agree with erroring on the side of shorter. Even though it is downhill, I agree with clubbing up a bit and hitting it easier. It is easier not to mishit it, you be surprised how more accurate you are when you are not swinging at full speed. Swing faults get exaggerated at higher speeds. 

For me, I am probably going to calculate what club I would hit at normal shot. Then club up one, and aim for the left center of the green. 

[KMP]

If I am not in a competition I just continue to try to make the shot. Especially since you stated you have success with the same club. I am on the quest to improve and would want to get that hole "out of my head" at some point. If golf ball cost is a consideration that could alter my opinion, but I am way under par on my golf ball finding/losing score. I guess there is a plus in missing so many fairways.

[darthweasel]

On 3/4/2022 at 7:30 AM, klineka said:

But that was kinda my point in my initial post in this topic, you aren't really "missing" per se, you're hitting it into your shot zone, but your shot zone with that particular club when centered over the green obviously has quite a good portion that is in the water as well, which is why I think it's perfectly reasonable to lay up to a yardage that takes the hazard out of play until your shot zone with that particular club shrinks enough that it makes sense to aim for the green.

I think that by having in your head that certain clubs or distances are "scoring clubs" or "scoring yardages" you might be adding unnecessary pressure to yourself or that shot. Just because you have a wedge in your hand doesn't mean you should automatically think you're going to stick it close. The PGA Tour average proximity from 100-125 yds in the fairway is 19'7", so almost 20 feet. That means plenty of times the best players in the world are hitting it outside 20 feet from 100-125 yds away, so don't add pressure to yourself by feeling that just because you have a wedge in your hand means you need to score well or hit it tight.

I seldom attempt to hit it tight. If the flag is dead center green...that has generally been my aiming point but I saw an interesting video where some guys..fore play? something like that were out with Harry Higgs and he was introducing them to his "field goal" concept. Spent some time thinking on that. Part of the issue of course is on a day when I am pulling wedges for 4 holes and suddenly blast one well right and had accounted for a sub-optimal shot but it landing in an outlier zone, just not a lot I can do on that. Well, I could hit a better shot, but lets not get too crazy