Can This Be True? Reaching a Par-5 in Two Shots!

[SG11118]

21 hours ago, ChetlovesMer said:

Um, math is hard. I'm going to assume you did the math correct. But the stat doesn't even say that you have to make the eagle putt. But just get the ball on the putting surface in 2 on a par-5. 

Does that change your math? 

Took that into account.  My percentages are ball park - perhaps a little high.  Just trying to find the range where I would expect the number to be.  I am also assuming that the golfers in each category of length play enough rounds where they will have multiple eagle putt opportunities to the point where the odds are that at least one will fall.  I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if a golfer can drive it over 275 and plays 10 rounds a year at a course that has a par 5 that is 500 yards, that they are going to have multiple eagle putt opportunities per year - extrapolate that over multiple years and pretty much all of them are bound to have an eagle.  That is 15% right there.  Add in some smaller percentage for the 250-275 and 225-250 golfers, and it seems like 10% is quite low.

[Shindig]

15 minutes ago, SG11118 said:

I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if a golfer can drive it over 275 and plays 10 rounds a year at a course that has a par 5 that is 500 yards, that they are going to have multiple eagle putt opportunities per year - extrapolate that over multiple years and pretty much all of them are bound to have an eagle.  That is 15% right there. 

What fraction of golfers do you think can drive it over 275?  It wasn't that long ago that 275 yards was competitive for Tour distance.

[SG11118]

1 hour ago, Shindig said:

What fraction of golfers do you think can drive it over 275?  It wasn't that long ago that 275 yards was competitive for Tour distance.

The link I posted yesterday says 4% over 300 and another 11% in the 275-300 range.  

[TourSpoon]

I went over 2 years without an eagle, but hit a handful of greens on the par 5s and had easy birdies.  This year I really honed in on the long game and last month had 2 eagles in one round along with a birdie on all 3 of the home course's par fives. That beats my 3 par five record of 3 birdies last year. What a crazy game! 

[roejye]

I have reached a par 5 in 2, and drained the eagle putt. The only reason I can do it is because it is one of those short par 5's. That being said, I also find it hard to believe that stat. The combination of "ever," and "10%," just seems off to me.

[Esox]

 Back in the persimmon wood days I not only reached a par 5 in 2, I holed my 4 wood second shot. Talk about luck............

At 62 there I can still reach some par 5's I play regularly in 2, the longest being 515 yards, but the second shot is 25' downhill.

Edited July 30, 2022 by Esox

[StuM]

I chose “never but working on it”.  I have been close to green in 2 a few times but never on the green.  Also, my one and only Eagle was on a short par 4 that I chipped in. (That Eagle is very lonely, I need to get him some friends).

As my game is now it would need to be a somewhat short par-5 and not have trouble in front of the green.  Unless I get a whopper of a drive I doubt I would try for the green in 2 if there were water on play.  

I think the “ever” is possibly correct.  There are a lot of golfers out there that do not have even close to enough length.  On my league there are 3 of 24 players I would say could reach in 2 and that is only @ 12.5% and a small sample size so I could see 10% being about right.

[David L Yskes]

I would think 10% is about right...     

IF you think of Golf as a whole, how many golfer's actually drive the ball a legit 275+ or even 250+   and then say you have on the low end, a 500 yard par 5

well if you only it the ball 250..  now you still have another 250 to get it on the green.. even if your between 250 - 275, you still have 225 to get it on the green..    

Now obviously, the guys with lower handicaps, and longer driver distances, will have more chances..   and the % of those guys are also low..   so it's not too unrealistic to say that only 10% of all the golfer's will have a chance at a eagle

I've had a couple of legit chances at eagles, but it was all because i smoked my drive and it went straight down the fairway, and i smoked my next shot, and it got on the green..     

[WillieT]

As an over 60 way late newcomer to the game, I currently don’t  have the length off the tee to reach in two.   It would be nice.  Much work to do.  I came within 6” of an eagle 2 on a shorter par 4 once, but that is  another survey, another thread.  I will say that I was there when my son did make eagle on a par 5 earlier this summer.  Was sweet seeing him accomplish this. 

[roejye]

The more I think about this, the more I think this stat is probably true. There are a lot of golfers out there, I was listening to a podcast during my round yesterday and they said that there are 65 million golfers in the world. So if we take that number, 10% is 6.5 million people. That alone is a lot of people, combine that with people's ego/ignorance of their distances, playing the wrong tees, and golf is bleeping hard. Even if you're a long hitter you've got to hit 2 really good shots into a small area that's probably much smaller than the dispersion circle of the club they are hitting.

[No Mulligans]

Bear Mountain Golf course hole 4, par 5, 463 yards, elevation 7,000 feet.  I've had a 6 iron in for my second shot (and I'm 64 years old).  Probably shouldn't be a par 5.

[GolfLug]

I think this is a pointless stat if it includes anyone and everyone who has ever played a round of golf. 

I think it would be a somewhat sensible stat if it only included only who have played at least 3-4 years and play 10+ rounds  a year. And then they would find the number is much higher than 10%. Much, much, much higher. 

Most of us in this category I described have played this 420-450 yard par 5 and have dribbled on a worm burner onto the green from 190 out at least once in our lives. I mean c'mon.

And if you are a regular golfer and have neeeeveeeer sniffed a par 5 in two then you oughta reconsider your tees. 

Edited July 31, 2022 by GolfLug

[iacas]

3 hours ago, David L Yskes said:

I would think 10% is about right...     

IF you think of Golf as a whole, how many golfer's actually drive the ball a legit 275+ or even 250+   and then say you have on the low end, a 500 yard par 5

well if you only it the ball 250..  now you still have another 250 to get it on the green.. even if your between 250 - 275, you still have 225 to get it on the green..    

Because there are bounces. Because there are "485 yard" downhill par fives. Because if it's 500 from the black tees, it's 410 from the white tees… and still a par five.

[Friz]

6 hours ago, David L Yskes said:

then say you have on the low end, a 500 yard par 5

The low end is going to be closer to about 375.  I've got a course near me with a 390 yard par 5 from the white tees.  There are courses like that all over the place.  A lot of people don't play the correct tees, but there are plenty of places to run into a short par 5 to do this only once in your life

[Troy Ocker]

On 7/28/2022 at 5:58 PM, SG11118 said:

Took that into account.  My percentages are ball park - perhaps a little high.  Just trying to find the range where I would expect the number to be.  I am also assuming that the golfers in each category of length play enough rounds where they will have multiple eagle putt opportunities to the point where the odds are that at least one will fall.  I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if a golfer can drive it over 275 and plays 10 rounds a year at a course that has a par 5 that is 500 yards, that they are going to have multiple eagle putt opportunities per year - extrapolate that over multiple years and pretty much all of them are bound to have an eagle.  That is 15% right there.  Add in some smaller percentage for the 250-275 and 225-250 golfers, and it seems like 10% is quite low.

I guess it's very dependent on which tees you play from and the course you play. The key word is context. 

I'm in the 275-300 bracket, but I'm not hitting more than 40% fairways and even from the FW I don't hit more than maximum 10% of the greens from 225+. I'm not a scratch golfer, but I'm above average, and I don't think I have more than 1 putt for eagle every 10 rounds on my home course. 

On my home course we have five 500+ yard par 5's, I've made only 1 eagle on the par 5's from the 57 tees (6350 yards - mens) in my last 250 rounds on this course. I've had putts for eagle on 4 of the hole, but many stars have to be aligned to get the ball in the hole in 3 shots on any of these holes.

Here is the par 5's on my home course (from the regular mens tees): 

Hole 1: 540 yards par 5, downhill tee shot. Very reachable for me with the right wind. Tough green that runs away from you. This is the hole that has given me the most chances through the years.  

Hole 9: 500 yards par 5, 20 yards uphill, water down the entire left side. Reachable when the wind allows it for the long hitters. 

Hole 10: 540 yards par 5, with a huge dogleg left with 130 yards left to the green. You need to hit a long miss left and carry 200+ yards over OB to reach the green or hit a 330+ yards drive down the middle to open up the dogleg. Then you have 210 yards to a green with dangers on all sides. I putt for eagle here maybe twice a year (80 rounds) and the green is extremely ondulated. 

Hole 14: 530 yards par 5, not a driver hole. The hole is very narrow between 220 and 300 yards from tee + 80% of the shots landing in that area will feed down in the hazard that runs on the left, so this is a hole I never go for in 2. 

Hole 18: 525 yards par 5, 20 yards uphill with water down the entire right side. Tough hole to reach even with the right wind. Needs 2 very good shots. 

So on this course just a very few will be able to reach any of these in 2. If allowed to play from any tees (from the 48 - womens - The par 5's plays 440, 435, 450, 440 and 410) it is a completely different story. Then the 10% number is of course way too low. 

I guess the stats in the article could use some more context for us to read anything usefull out of it. 

 

[ChetlovesMer]

On 7/30/2022 at 4:57 PM, David L Yskes said:

 and then say you have on the low end, a 500 yard par 5

There's a course near my home in which there's a par-5 with the back tees at 517 yards with a forced carry of about 100 yards just to clear the water which is right in front of the tee box. The middle tees, however, are in front of the forced carry and they only measure 395 yards, they are still a par-5. The forward tees only measure 305. 

BTW - This course always seems to be windy as well. (Not sure why.... ) Sometimes the wind's in your face on this par 5 and it can feel very long. Other times the wind is at your back and it feels almost like it should be a par-4. 

Again, If the stat was 10% of golfers can expect, or probably can, or are likely to, ... hit a par-5 green in two. I would think that seems about right.

BUT, the stat said 10% EVER hit a par-5 in two. That seems really low to me. 

On 7/30/2022 at 6:15 AM, StuM said:

I chose “never but working on it”.  I have been close to green in 2 a few times but never on the green.

You came very close playing with me last weekend. You definitely WILL be able to. You have the ability to. 

[StuM]

8 hours ago, ChetlovesMer said:

You came very close playing with me last weekend. You definitely WILL be able to. You have the ability to. 

Close but no cigar….yet

[RickK]

I have had my fair share over the years.  Before I got into my 70s, I had good chances of reaching reasonable length par 5s.  100# lighter and now 76 (well in 7 days) rare that I hit a par 5 in 2 and I have become a terrible putter.  

But, after I turned 70, I did hit a par 5 in 2 and the ball went in the hole for a 2.

Edited August 4, 2022 by RickK