NCAA Football 2023

[StuM]

5 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I agree. But damn, it’d be real hard to put FSU in there if they’re starting QB won’t be playing. Again, numbers make it sound like a no brainer, undefeated conf champs. But, would FSU really give MI, Ala, GA, WA, TX, OSU, a solid match without him? I know it can unavoidable , but I’m not a fan of repeat match ups. Like if TX/Ala or Ala/GA are in there…But as much as I don’t like OSU, I believe they’d give a better contest than FSU without their QB.

I agree, and if Florida St is left out as undefeated conference Champ the I see Alabama getting in, but I do not see how Texas could be left out to get Georgia in.

i do agree, Michigan has to win.

[Vinsk]

5 minutes ago, StuM said:

I agree, and if Florida St is left out as undefeated conference Champ the I see Alabama getting in, but I do not see how Texas could be left out to get Georgia in.

i do agree, Michigan has to win.

Right. Can’t leave TX out and ALA in..being that TX beat them ….at home.

[StuM]

Following is going to get a lot of study overnight.

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

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CFP Selection Committee Protocol

One key section, assuming the need to pick between an undefeated Florida State and 1-loss Texas, Alabama & Georgia. (I believe Florida State is out if they lose)

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

 

[StuM]

My selections:

#1 Michigan

#2 Washington

#3 Texas

#4 Alabama

i am sure my bias is in play here but I would take OSU over Alabama but do not think the committee will, even though they could. Below is per the protocol.

“flexibility and discretion to select a non‐champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non‐champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.”

Florida State is undefeated and I have a hard time eliminating them but their strength of schedule is not that high & they just did not look dominant against a team that had already lost 2 games.

I put Texas over Alabama due to head-2-head.

that leaves 1 spot.

Alabama barely beat Auburn to get to the SEC playoff and barely beat Georgia and could (should?) have lost if the 4th down had been reviewed (it should have been reviewed) see below.

for strength of schedule i am looking at ESPN power rank and OSU is #2:

 

2023 College Football Power Index - ESPN

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View the 2023 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's...

I almost put Georgia in as #4 given they may have won if the 4th down were reviewed but it was not and the lost so they are out,

in reality Georgia, Alabama & Ohio State all have an argument and each could go all the way.

now, what I expect is Alabama will be in and Ohio State will be out but given the power rankings & best loss I could see OSU as #4.

[dennyjones]

Michigan - Washington - Texas - Florida St.

I don't see the committee eliminating a Power 5 undefeated conference champ.   They may not be the most deserving but it will say a lot about the committee's bias if they keep FSU out.  The first criterion is 

• Championships won

 

 

Who wins the Heisman?  The kid from LSU, Washington, or Marvin Harrison Jr?

Edited December 3, 2023 by dennyjones

[DeadMan]

It should be Michigan, Washington, Texas, and FSU. I could see the committee bumping FSU for Alabama, but I hope not. 

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, DeadMan said:

It should be Michigan, Washington, Texas, and FSU. I could see the committee bumping FSU for Alabama, but I hope not. 

The committee has made it clear they go for ‘best team’ over ‘ most deserving.’ It’s true FSU is an undefeated conference champ, but they were clearly the poorest performing team on Saturday’s winners aside from a strong defense showing.

Not knowing if FSU QB plays is a killer. There’s no way FSU without their starting QB beats any of the other top 4. Hell they wouldn’t beat OSU. No FSU QB then I think you gotta go with:

MI-WA-TX-AL

[StuM]

We will know a lot in a short time.

I'm sticking with MI-WA-TX-AL

Sorry, but FSU has not played a single top 10 team and their best win was against #13 and with backup QB they only beach #14 for conference championship 16-6.  I just do not think they are a true Top-4 team.

Edited December 3, 2023 by StuM

[dennyjones]

Now we know!   I think these are the best choices.   I wouldn't rule out any of the four from winning it all

[StuM]

2 hours ago, dennyjones said:

Now we know!   I think these are the best choices.   I wouldn't rule out any of the four from winning it all

Agreed,

I’ve read a lot critical of FSU not getting in.  Well, they play Georgia and if they win they can tell everyone the committee was wrong.

sorry for them but I think Georgia is going to crush them,

Edited December 4, 2023 by StuM
Fixed typos

[mcanadiens]

Based on what the committee is supposed to consider, I think they got it right, but just about everyone ought to feel badly for Florida State at the same time. 

It was always an inherently flawed system when voting instead of direct on-field results determine these kind of things. They expand the field next year, but we'll have the same subjectivity just at a different level. 

It was always my thought that college football should try to establish a tournament of conference champions. Obviously, some conferences are much stronger than others, but it would give a concrete path based on wins and losses. Those few schools that insist on being independent can either get with the program or not participate.  

 

[klineka]

Ohio State starting QB Kyle McCord enters transfer portal - ESPN

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Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who started throughout the season for the Buckeyes, entered his name into the transfer portal Monday morning.

This is pretty interesting. I wonder if the coaches told McCord he would have to compete again next season for the starting job.

[StuM]

4 minutes ago, klineka said:

Ohio State starting QB Kyle McCord enters transfer portal - ESPN

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Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who started throughout the season for...

This is pretty interesting. I wonder if the coaches told McCord he would have to compete again next season for the starting job.

Not even committed in Cotton Bowl

Is Kyle McCord still Ohio State's clear starting quarterback? Ryan Day is non-committal

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Ohio State coach Ryan Day was non-committal when asked if Kyle McCord remains the clear starter...

 

[saevel25]

It's a bit more complicated. I am not sure McCord would have even played since he was dealing with level 2 sprained ankles. They probably would have shut him down to get healthy, and by that time he gets no reps. 

Also, I think McCord wanted out. Not sure if this is what he signed up for, but it clearly didn't work out how he wanted. He probably saw the writing on the wall. With a lack luster 2023, and a new QB competition next year, he didn't want to wait till after spring to transfer. 

[dennyjones]

I expect several players from teams not competing in the final 4 to sit out.   Former Michigan tight end Jake Butt lost millions when he was injured in a bowl game.  His draft stock dropped a couple of rounds.   

McCord isn't pro-ready and as previously stated, he probably saw his playing time challenged.   I'm sure Ohio has quality QBs waiting to play.  He's the first QB in a long time that hasn't transitioned to the pros.  

 

[ChetlovesMer]

1 hour ago, mcanadiens said:

It was always my thought that college football should try to establish a tournament of conference champions. Obviously, some conferences are much stronger than others, but it would give a concrete path based on wins and losses. Those few schools that insist on being independent can either get with the program or not participate.  

 

Division 3 college football has had a 32 team tournament since 1973. 
They don't even give out scholarships yet their "Student Athletes" can participate in a tournament. 

I used to love it when the NCAA would claim we can't have a football tournament because the "student athlete" would be taken out of class for too long. 

• NCAA for 20 years:                      "We can't do a playoff it's unfair to the student athlete. They would miss too many classes." 
• Everyone else:                             "Division 3 does it and they don't even offer scholarships." 
• NCAA:                                         "We can't do a playoff it would mean too many games for student athletes." 
• Everyone else:                             "Um... You've added 3 games to everyone's schedule over the last 20 years... Couldn't you have made that a playoff?" 
• NCAA for 10 more years:            "A playoff would ruin the economics of college football and too many schools depend on the revenue."
• 2014:                                           "First year of a 4 team playoff increases revenue by 25%" 
• NCAA:                                         "We don't have enough money to expand the playoff." 
• From 2015-2019                         "Revenue in college football doubles. and then doubles again."
• NCAA:                                         "Okay, I guess we can expand the playoffs." 
• Everyone else:                             "What took you guys so long?" 
• NCAA:                                         "We didn't realize how much money was in it.....Er ... um ... I mean, we care about the student athlete." 

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, dennyjones said:

I expect several players from teams not competing in the final 4 to sit out.   Former Michigan tight end Jake Butt lost millions when he was injured in a bowl game.  His draft stock dropped a couple of rounds.   

McCord isn't pro-ready and as previously stated, he probably saw his playing time challenged.   I'm sure Ohio has quality QBs waiting to play.  He's the first QB in a long time that hasn't transitioned to the pros.  

Day had a team meeting on Saturday after the play-off selection. I am sure he is going to know who is sitting out or not.

Maybe one QB in every 5 years is NFL ready from day one. Most of them are running QB's because they are fleeing for their lives behind horrible OL. NFL QB's take 3+ years to come anywhere close to a peak in terms of passing the ball. 

I think it is as simple as this for McCord. 

1. He was not guaranteed the starting position after starting for this year. Which, by the way he played is reasonable, and Day never publicly admits that any QB is the guy from one year to the next. You have to basically play like Justin Fields or CJ for assume they are the starter. Day will still put them through competition in the off season, so they don't get complacent. 

2. He wants to hit the transfer portal early, so he gets to a new team before spring practice. This gives him the best shot to start next year at a new school. Which, I assume he's had an idea he was transferring for a while now. Which makes me respect him more because he goes out there and balls out on two significant sprained ankles trying to win for this team. I didn't see him cash out in terms of motivation. 

3. Maybe he didn't like being the starting QB at OSU when you finally are the guy for the year. Sorry, but riding the bench is different than being the guy. Which is fine, go find your spot. 

[saevel25]

This year would have been a good 12-team playoff. At least per opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added). There are 7 teams in the farthest bin (PSU, OSU, UM, ND, OU, UGA, and Oregon). Then 5 teams in the next bin close to the farthest bin (FSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Alabama, Washington). Though, Oregon State would have a claim to. Oh, I forgot LSU WAY down there in the bottom right. Whoo, what a terrible defense.