Will Tiger Break Jack's Major Record?? (2012 Edition)

[apgolf]

Will the Tiger beat the Bear in the long run?

I don't think you would have found too many doubters on this question three years ago, but then...when Tiger was down in my neck of the woods (no pun intended) back in December 2009 on route to a superb victory in our "Australia Masters," his World got turned upside down. All from his doing of course.

I'm the same age as Tiger and was doing a Professional Trainee-ship when he won the US Masters in 1997 by 18 shots (you played well Tom Kite - Masters Runner up)! I have enjoyed watching, learning and being inspired by him over the years. When he won by 15 at Pebble in 2000, then at St Andrews by half a dozen or so then the British Open at Royal Liverpool where he won by 5 (won two years in a row by that number).

Nowadays I admire his skills, but I realize he is not "the Messiah" he wants was, but a just a genius when it comes to playing golf.

Things have changed and I don't think he will dominate like he used to, and will he win 5 more majors to break Jack's record?

Yeah I think he might just get there over the next 10 years. 19 or 20 I think he can do it. It will be close.

What do you guys think?

PS US Open 2008 was the last year he won a major.

[iacas]

I added a poll.

[Hoganwoods]

Even though he may not even win one this year, I think he will break the record.  Look at the competition he has.. guys who win 2-3 times a year at the very very most.  Luke Donald is on top of his game and still only has half the world ranking points Woods had most of the last decade.  I look forward to the next 5 years.

[BEAN]

I am on the fence but i voted yes.  There are some other young hungry players who will challenge him as opposed to the past.  I feel that after he gets a grip on his new swing he will be back on track. His greatest strength is his determination and I think mentally he will overcome all of his issues.

[Wallstreet]

I think he will beat Jack's record.  There are a lot of great players out their but none of them have the mental fortitude that Tiger had/still has.  I think his mental strength is finally coming back.  He is still the greatest talent this game has seen since Jack and I think that we will all see in the coming years that the best players in the world will be dominated once again by Tiger.

[Dave H]

I voted yes. Probably because I want him to more than anything though.

[preisman]

He will get one closer this weekend, and then next will be much easier. He'll get them well before 45. And his last might just come around that age.

[David in FL]

Don't think so. At one point other players were in awe of him. Intimidated. No more.

[turtleback]

Originally Posted by David in FL

Don't think so. At one point other players were in awe of him. Intimidated. No more.

All these young guys who aren't "intimidated" by him haven't played him when he is at full force.

Yet.

Let him return to the 2005-2008 level, let alone to 1999-2001 level, and then we will see if they are in awe of him or not.

If you look at the stroke average stats, the "young guns" didn't get better than the "old guns".  They are all at the level of the guys who were right behind Tiger in his salad years.  If Tiger gets back to adjusted stroke averages of 68.5 and lower, as he was in those prime years, the rest will still be at their 69.5+ levels and Tiger will dominate.

[Wally Fairway]

I'm still waiting for Tiger to make a charge on Sunday to win a major, like he won last week at the Memorial. If/when he does that then I think he will break the record; his record of front running after having a lead (or share of) after Saturday is remarkable . . . but when he shows he can come from several shots back, then I think he puts the fear back into the competition.

[Infamous 273]

i think if he can stay healthy, he'll be able to do it.  people forget that vjay won 22 times in his 40's; so if we're having this discussion 8 years from now and he still hasn't eclipsed 18, then i'll have a different point of view.

[eich41]

Originally Posted by Hoganwoods

Even though he may not even win one this year, I think he will break the record.  Look at the competition he has.. guys who win 2-3 times a year at the very very most.  Luke Donald is on top of his game and still only has half the world ranking points Woods had most of the last decade.  I look forward to the next 5 years.

You guys are all crazy.  Tiger is not the Tiger of old.  He's always relied on the long ball and his ability to hit amazing recovery shots.  The problem is that as he ages, that power isn't there anymore.  He's never been more than an average putter (although he has been a clutch putter).  He's still a very good player, but there's more depth on the tour now than there was in his prime.  Half of the guys out there right now grew up watching Tiger and they aren't intimidated by him.  The poster above mentions that his competition only wins 2-3 times a year at the most (which isn't entirely accurate) but guess what?  Tiger only wins 2-3 times a year at the very very most anymore.  Tiger has become a good tour player, but he's no longer the man on tour, there are 25 guys that are just as good or better than Tiger right now.

[bplewis24]

Here's my attempt to be a sportswriter.

06/13/12: He will never do it, ever.

06/18/12: Of course he will, and he may even get to 25.

[bwdial]

Originally Posted by turtleback

All these young guys who aren't "intimidated" by him haven't played him when he is at full force.

Yet.

Let him return to the 2005-2008 level, let alone to 1999-2001 level, and then we will see if they are in awe of him or not.

If you look at the stroke average stats, the "young guns" didn't get better than the "old guns".  They are all at the level of the guys who were right behind Tiger in his salad years.  If Tiger gets back to adjusted stroke averages of 68.5 and lower, as he was in those prime years, the rest will still be at their 69.5+ levels and Tiger will dominate.

Unless Tiger has a time machine, I don't see him getting back to the 2005-2008 level... let alone the 1999-2001 level.  For one, I don't think he trusts his body, and that's not something that's going to get any better as he ages.  Age is also going to start to affect how much he can practice and play, which leads me to my second point.

Secondly, I don't think he fully trusts his new swing.  When it's on, it's on, but when it's not, it's really not.  If he loses significant practice time due to Achilles flare ups, etc. he's going to have a harder time achieving that level of trust.  If his practice schedule is limited by his physical well being, and he's not comfortable with his full swing, his short game will start to suffer.  He's not twenty-something... he's thirty-something... and he's looking at forty.  Regardless of how good of physical shape he's in, the body simply doesn't have the same abilities at 36 that it did at 26.

[jamo]

I still think that if he gets 1, he'll go on to break the record. I oscillate on whether or not he will get 1.

[RollTide]

Originally Posted by bwdial

He's not twenty-something... he's thirty-something... and he's looking at forty.

He could potentially play in 15 more majors before he turns 40. Let's don't treat him as being over the hill just yet.

[Wallstreet]

Originally Posted by eich41

You guys are all crazy.  Tiger is not the Tiger of old.  He's always relied on the long ball and his ability to hit amazing recovery shots.  The problem is that as he ages, that power isn't there anymore.  He's never been more than an average putter (although he has been a clutch putter).  He's still a very good player, but there's more depth on the tour now than there was in his prime.  Half of the guys out there right now grew up watching Tiger and they aren't intimidated by him.  The poster above mentions that his competition only wins 2-3 times a year at the most (which isn't entirely accurate) but guess what?  Tiger only wins 2-3 times a year at the very very most anymore.  Tiger has become a good tour player, but he's no longer the man on tour, there are 25 guys that are just as good or better than Tiger right now.

They aren't intimidated because they haven't played a healthy (mentally and physically) Tiger.  There are a lot more talented players on tour these days.  But none of them come even close to the level of play Tiger displayed between 05-08.  If and when Tiger starts playing like he knows how to play you will see the Mcilroy's and Johnson's and Donald's of the world be just as intimidated as everyone was in the past.  These past few years have been a slump.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Tiger is on his way to being back.  His strength hasn't changed.  He is still hitting the ball far.  He still knows how to play golf better than anyone.  Until you show me someone else who is dominant (because no one on tour is right now)  you can't really say that there are "25" players possibly better than Tiger.  That is a stretch

[lumpuckeroo]

I voted no, but mostly because I'm a fan of Jack, he was the golfer my generation looked up to as kids.  Jack was 35 when he won 2 majors in 1975, over the next 10 years he only managed to get 4 more majors.  Tiger is 36, so they seem to be on very parallel paths, I think the deciding factor will be if his knee stays healthy.  While Tiger is in much better shape physically then Jack ever was, Jack never had a major surgery, let alone two, on such an important part of the body as the left knee.

All of that being said, there are still plenty of chances for Tiger, he will get to play Augusta 10 more times, St. Andrews at least once, Pebble at least once.  It would not surprise me one bit to see him get number 18 at the age of 46 at Augusta!