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On Tour - how much is skill, how much is luck?


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  Shorty said:
Originally Posted by Shorty

Quote:

Originally Posted by MEfree

A guy (who) might be able to beat Dufner or Johnson half the time on his home course without a lot of pressure, yes that is possible,

Why would that be possible?

Do you really think that not knowing a course is so huge a disadvantage to the best players in the world that a local noone has ever heard of might beat them half the time at that course?

There are endless stories of players turning up to tournaments and not having practice rounds and shooting amazing scores.

I have told the story many times of my friend who was between the Canadian and PGA Tours who came to play a match with me at the course I was working at. He had never seen the course before and had 7 birdies that day with conditions that were not PGA standard (he also carded a 29 on the back nine at a PGA event later that year). Those guys are that good, day in and day out.

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  TourSpoon said:
Originally Posted by TourSpoon

For what it is worth, I don't necessarily believe that luck has much to do with winning golf tournaments. The "breaks" have more to do with helping you to at least try. Being born in an optimal environment, getting the attention from a coach, getting early sponsorship from club members, etc, can make your run more favorable, but skill gets you there and keeps you there. If you don't have the skill, golf will expose you every time.

I agree with this. There is luck involved in every round of golf, so at some level, it has an effect. The guys who are successful, who reach the Tour, and who stay there more than a year, are almost by definition good enough that they'll be in a position to take advantage of breaks when they turn their way.

It's at the previous stage where the luck enters. There are undoubtedly many, many people who have the athletic and psychological skills to play Tour caliber golf, but who aren't golfing or who aren't golfing seriously. Even for someone with Tiger's talent, it takes an enormous amount of preparation and effort to play at a winning level. We've seen that with the years he's been struggling to regain his footing. And this is one of the best golfers ever to play the game. The "lucky break" in golf, IMO, is getting a chance to put everything on hold and give the game 100% of your attention for a period of years. Most people can't do that, it takes a bit of luck to either have the resources to fund that yourself, or to find someone who is willing to take a chance that you can develop beyond just being really good.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuffluck View Post

Thanks for the responses.  I thought about this some more after I posted, and realized a few things myself.  I think the weeding-out process of golfers is a little bit more practical.  If you're good, you can play amateur tours.  If you're one of the best there, you can go to Q-school or the web.com tour.  If you're really good there, you can go pro.  It's a pretty *easy* (conceptually) way to track the best of the best.

But that doesn't exist in showbiz.  Sure, there are auditions for parts, but not anyone off the street can walk into an audition for Iron Man 3.  And it's not like there is any lower level where you can say "If I start here and I'm good, I am guaranteed a shot at a role in Iron Man 3 eventually."  With golf, if you start at the bottom and you are that good, your skill will get you to each next level.  There are no levels in Hollywood, and a lot of ambiguity is present around the idea of someone going from a "nobody" to a "somebody."

I think if golf lacked this tracking system and relied more on this ambiguous "maybe" concept, maybe you would never see a Jason Dufner or a Zach Johnson playing in the pros at all.  Maybe they got comfortable in their white-collared lifestyle and figured the idea of never knowing where you stand or how to move up just isn't work the risk.  I.E. there may be 100 potential George Clooney's out there, but only 1 of them was ever going to be "The" George Clooney, and only half of them ever tried.

No one is truly a nobody. And anyone can walk off the street and audition for many parts. Granted a fair number of directors have a certain person in mind for most films, there are still open auditions. You have to start some where.

Ex: Stephanie Sparks

Quote:
Sparks' time at The Golf Channel began as a production assistant in the cable television network's original productions department. In fact, the very first time Sparks appeared in front of a camera was in the 2004 film, Bobby Jones: A Stroke of Genius . In the movie, Sparks played Alexa Stirling , the winner of three consecutive United States Women's Amateur Golf Championships and a close friend of the legendary golfer . To try out for the part, Sparks went to an open audition during a lunch break in Orlando , where The Golf Channel's studios are located. To her surprise, she got the part, even without prior acting experience.

"My ball is on top of a rock in the hazard, do I get some sort of relief?"

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  sean_miller said:
Originally Posted by sean_miller

Maybe he got lucky the championship was on a bomber's paradise that year and the committee hadn't foreseen a specimen like Daly being in the field - rumour has it they were using Greg Norman as the yardstick for course set up.

Great argument!

  TourSpoon said:
Originally Posted by TourSpoon

It would have been hard to win that tournament if he didn't play in it.

I was responding to the first statement that luck actually had anything to do with John Daly winning and that if there was luck that it would be him getting the chance to even play. Maybe he mailed in his application late and that caused him to be the 9th alternate, but he was the 9th alternate. Regardless, Nick Price's w/ding was not skill related (not necessarily luck either). Once Daly got on the course, his skill allowed him to win, not a lucky break.

For what it is worth, I don't necessarily believe that luck has much to do with winning golf tournaments. The "breaks" have more to do with helping you to at least try. Being born in an optimal environment, getting the attention from a coach, getting early sponsorship from club members, etc, can make your run more favorable, but skill gets you there and keeps you there. If you don't have the skill, golf will expose you every time.

Touche'.  But I wasn't referring to that particular tournament.  I meant, make it as in become just as big of a name as he is today with that tournament.    I guess it comes down to each person.  You have to figure out if you believe it was a "lucky break" of it that's just the way it was supposed to be.

I don't "disagree" with what you are saying at all.

  MEfree said:
Originally Posted by MEfree

With that said, I think it is hard to dispute that where you are born matters in terms of your chances of making it as a professional golfer.  China alone has something like 20% of the worlds population and some very good athletes, but not too many players on the PGA Tour.  How many successful Afgan, Ethiopian, Nigerian or Russian golfers can you name?  And it is not just money or country of birth that is going to affect a young persons odds of making it on the PGA Tour.  Course access has to play a role.  I don`t have the stats, but I would guess that there are a lot more PGA Tour players that were born and raised in New Zealand than Manhattan despite the fact that the US has the most top golfers and Manhattan has a larger population than NZ.

I agree with this 100%.  That's why there are athletes in many other sports, because they have access to those sports.  My area has no wrestling, hockey, etc...but I can think of a ton of guys that excelled at football that could potentially have done better at wrestling for instance.  Does that mean they were unlucky because they didn't get to experience those?  No, because they went on with another sport.  How many of those people in Afgan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Russian, China went on to be world class marathon runners, power lifters, taekwondo golf medal winners.  I understand about the areas and not getting golf exposure, but to call them unlucky really doesn't apply.

But I am steering away from the original golf question...I know, I know. I'm just saying that maybe it's not unlucky. Maybe they were just meant to play another sport.

  zeg said:
Originally Posted by zeg

It's at the previous stage where the luck enters. There are undoubtedly many, many people who have the athletic and psychological skills to play Tour caliber golf, but who aren't golfing or who aren't golfing seriously. Even for someone with Tiger's talent, it takes an enormous amount of preparation and effort to play at a winning level. We've seen that with the years he's been struggling to regain his footing. And this is one of the best golfers ever to play the game. The "lucky break" in golf, IMO, is getting a chance to put everything on hold and give the game 100% of your attention for a period of years. Most people can't do that, it takes a bit of luck to either have the resources to fund that yourself, or to find someone who is willing to take a chance that you can develop beyond just being really good.

Not golfing or not golfing seriously is a choice...not lucky or unlucky.  Most people (Tiger for instance) started as a small child, went to school as normal, went on to college as normal, then got noticed.  He didn't really put anything "on hold" to go play.  I see kids all over my area that spend just as much time (maybe more) practicing baseball.  They play during the season, they go to camps in the spring, the play traveling ball when the local season is over, they go to more camps in the winter, etc.....

The funding comes in for the people that don't go to college or don't play their entire lives.  Then you have to have supporters to back you to go through q school (or what was q school), etc....

The one thing I have seen growing up (this is in baseball more than anything in my area) is parents that have a child that has the talent and skill and love of the game, do EVERYTHING they can to give the kid the chance to make it big.  It doesn't take that much money when you are a child comparatively speaking.   Unless you are paying 1000.00 for a golf club (just had to throw that in there). And the way college works now, if you have that much talent in high school...you get a scholarship.  It's gotten so bad that you don't even have to make the grades anymore to get athletic scholarships.  But I digress....

As I stated earlier....you either believe in "lucky breaks" or you believe that is just how your life was intended to be..

And guys don't take my replies in the wrong way....I am just talking, not arguing and not accusing anyone of being wrong or trying to persuade anyone in any way.

Bryan A
"Your desire to change must be greater than your desire to stay the same"

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In reading back, I have gotten way off topic! I apologize.

Bryan A
"Your desire to change must be greater than your desire to stay the same"

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Ben Hogan didn't exactly hit the parent lottery.  His parents were by no means wealthy, especially after Ben's dad committed suicide in their living room.  He worked odd jobs, selling newspapers and as a caddie during his younger years and couldn't afford a set of clubs to learn how to play.  His early years as a golfer were spent driving around in a beat up car from tournament to tournament hoping he and his wife would have enough money for gas to make it home.

Add into the equation his career was cut short by military duty and an almost fatal car accident and I'd say overall Ben Hogan wasn't a very lucky man but he was a awesome golfer.

Joe Paradiso

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  MEfree said:

Originally Posted by MEfree

A guy (who) might be able to beat Dufner or Johnson half the time on his home course without a lot of pressure, yes that is possible,

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorty

Why would that be possible?

Do you really think that not knowing a course is so huge a disadvantage to the best players in the world that a local noone has ever heard of might beat them half the time at that course?

There are endless stories of players turning up to tournaments and not having practice rounds and shooting amazing scores.

Has more to do about handling competitive pressure than course knowledge, but I do feel that plays a small factor on some courses, particularly for players who are not as mentally tough as Dufner or Johnson.  Zach may be able to convince himself to make a great swing on a shot he is not familiar with under a lot of pressure, but some guys are going to perform as well as Zach in that situation only after they are familiar with the shot (whether it be wind or break of the green).

Others have a load of talent and can shoot lights out when there isn`t much pressure, but take longer to get used to dealing with the pressure.  Early in his career, Nick Faldo was called Foldo because of his propensity for choking.  He obviously figured it out, but some never do.

When I posted, I was thinking of a 25 yo that nobody has ever heard of at my dad`s course.  The long time club pro was on tour for a bit and made the cut at the US Open at least once.  Trevino, Bob Charles, Brandle Chamblee and likely many other pros have played this course over the years, but Danny holds the course record of 62 which he shot recently.  Danny made the cut at his only PGA Tour start 2 years ago and 4 out of 5 cuts on the Nationwide Tour in 2009-10, but only 8 of 25 cuts in 2011 (with his HIGH 36 hole total being 145).

I played a few holes with him last month and he may be playing the best golf of his life right now, but it is not on the PGA or Web.com Tours.  Last week he shot 62 to take the first round lead in an NGA Tour event and closed 67-69-69 to finish 5th and win $6,300.  At the end of July he was tied with the eventual winner of the 160 K Long Beach Open after 3 rounds, but faded to 9th with a closing 71.  The guy has a very pure swing, but hasn`t earned the reputation yet as being a clutch putter when the pressure is on.

I guess my point is that there is not a lot that separates a guy who is 100 on the PGA Tour from a guy who is 100 on the Web.com Tour.  An uncertain swing here, a mis-read putt there or being hot/cold at the right/wrong time may be all it takes.  This is why a guy like Michael Sim can have the following record from 2007 to 2012: 220 K (NW), 400 K (PGA), 270 K (PGA), 644/130 K (leading $ winner on NW/ 3 PGA events and OWGR inside top 100), 1.34 M (PGA), 47 K (PGA), 24 K (Web.com).

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Originally Posted by Valleygolfer

So are you practicing this song?

If I had a nickle for every time someone asked me if I know tip toe through the tulips or tiny bubbles... I would have a lot of nickles. :P

I actually chopped about 1/8" of my left index off about 8 weeks ago and it is still not back to 100% and therefore keeping me from playing a lot of uke... I also had to switch back to the interlock...


  TN94z said:
Originally Posted by TN94z

Not golfing or not golfing seriously is a choice...not lucky or unlucky.  Most people (Tiger for instance) started as a small child, went to school as normal, went on to college as normal, then got noticed.  He didn't really put anything "on hold" to go play.  I see kids all over my area that spend just as much time (maybe more) practicing baseball.  They play during the season, they go to camps in the spring, the play traveling ball when the local season is over, they go to more camps in the winter, etc.....

If you have the means to put in full time practicing golf, it's a choice. The kids whose parents have the resources (or interest) to put them through those camps are a relative minority, at least in many parts and perhaps most of the country. Had Tiger been born into a family where he needed to work part time jobs after school to keep the family going, or had his father not encouraged him as strongly as he did, the outcome might have been different.

Tiger is a funny case, though, and really not a good example for this discussion. I used his recent struggles as evidence that even the best golfer alive can't just walk out one week and win golf tournaments. But the best golfer, and best few golfers year in and year out are simply good enough that they'd probably have found their way to the Tour almost no matter what. As long as they had the interest in the game, they'd find their way there. The guys where luck is a bigger deal are the journeymen, the guys who do well enough to score well, but are missing as many or more cuts than they're making. There are many, many golfers who are as good or nearly as good technically, but who aren't on the Tour and may never be, simply because they don't peak at the right time in Q-school or don't put together enough wins on the junior tour to get called up.

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White Hot XG #1 Putter, 33"


  Shorty said:
Originally Posted by Shorty

Golf scores are objective.

There is no luck involved.

People can get lucky, but they don't get where they are in sports like golf through luck.

A 65 is a 65.

Some people say George Clooney is a good actor. Some say he's there because of his looks. Others may not find him attractive.

Britney Speers woudn't be where she would if she looked the way she does now 10 years ago.

The best guitar player in the world isn't going to get a gig with the hippest young band in the world if he is balding and 55 years old.

But a 65 is a 65 is a 65.

There is noone out there who coul be beat Jason Duffner or Zach Johnson half the time that you haven't heard of.

I completely agree.  I know a lot of guys who play mini-tours and when they are playing solid and posting low rounds there is always someone there to back them for events. If you have the talent and want to play at a high level the money side of it will take care of it self because there are always guys with money who want to some exciting investments.

I have a buddy who is a great golfer (solid +2) and plays in several tournaments a year.  He places and makes a small amount of money.  Long story short he wants to try and make a run at it.  He is 28 years old but needs his full time job to support his wife and kids.  Where he is hoping to get "lucky" is by finding a couple of sponsors who will basically subsidize his life to practice and prepare for tournaments full time.  So, the reason I say it is luck because as a lot of guys have said the luck comes into play if he can grab the attention of a couple of guys before he misses his window.  The reality is though my buddy is a great player but no where near the pro-level right now.

The comment about someone beating Dufner or Johnson half the time is kind of wild.  If you look at the rankings this year there aren't many pros that have been beating these guys 50% of the time ;)


I think luck in golf is negligible. You may hit a lucky shot, maybe even a hole in one. Well, that only accounts for one shot and there are maybe 68 more to go - that is, if you are good! Good luck being lucky for every shot in a round. For me personally, I've not had a hole in one in 13 years. Golf is a game spread over many shots. The reality of the game is you have a handicap and if it is accurate you play to that handicap over many rounds. The more you play the closer you get to that average. You cannot defy statistics and you cannot defy your ability on a consistent basis.

Of course there has to come a crunch time in any walk of life whenever more than one person who is good at something have to compete for only one spot, one job, one trophy etc. This might involve tremendous good fortune or awful luck at the pivotal moment. But rest assured getting that far in the first place was never down to luck.


Go to a top PGA event some day and spend a couple of hours on the range, and then try and tell yourself that it is luck.

Bill M

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This topic has gone way off course.

The OP wants to know if there are guys out there who are as good as the best in the world but because of "bad luck" are not known.

Not surprising the thrrad went off course, I suppose.

In the race of life, always back self-interest. At least you know it's trying.

 

 


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