• Announcements

    • iacas

      GAME GOLF Ryder Cup Contest   09/22/2016

      Join our GAME GOLF Ryder Cup Challenge to win an autographed GAME GOLF, a Pebble Steel watch, and many more great prizes!
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Lihu

Here it is October 2013. Who thinks the Economy is getting better and who thinks it is getting worse?

0  

  1. 1. Is it getting better?

    • Yes, I think it is starting to see some light
      6
    • Maybe, and in my personal experience it is getting better
      2
    • Maybe, but there is still a long slog yet
      3
    • No, double dip. Time for a change.
      8

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

23 posts in this topic

This topic has been brought up before in other threads, but deserves a separate current state thread.

The Fed just extended the stimulus plan, citing they expect a longer haul.

Obama is saying things are better, what makes him sure this is the case? His approval ratings are currently at 42%, his lowest ever.

Real Estate is stagnating due to lack of supply, and high housing prices. Only 25% of the people locally in CA can afford to own a home.

Employment is marginally better than this time last year.

What does that mean to the average person?

What are we waiting for to improve?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Want to get rid of this advertisement? Sign up (or log in) today! It's free!

I always find this question interesting - and you see it being polled by the news stations.  But I think it is actually quantifiable.  Never sure why what people think about it matters as much as the actual numbers.

I think the problem began long ago.  In my entire lifetime, the economy has been propped up by deficit spending.  I've never known an economy that wasn't fake.  Now we're at $17T in debt and we don't know how to live off of the economy in its native state.  Furthering the problem, if we were to start paying the debt off - we would actually take money out of it. How does that feel?  Not sure.

The good news is (and this is from the school of lowered expectations), our deficit was only $700B this year.  That doesn't sound good, but it is way down from the years before (1.1T, 1.3T, 1.3T, 1.4T, etc) and things weren't brutally bad this year.  I think it gives hope that we might actually be able to balance the budget without causing another recession.

I'm not sure of it obviously.  Things weren't stellar this year despite the extra $700B.  But I can hope.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The economy has to crash completely before it gets better.  Even when it gets better it won't appear to be as good as many of us remember it to be in the past.

Bush / Obama have kept the economy on life support since the mortgage debacle by printing money and bailing out banks and businesses at the expense of the deficit and our future.  There are still a huge number of bad mortgages on the books that the banks and government are trying to figure out what to do with.

While this mess exists, Obama is attempting to socialize healthcare with the ACA which will ultimately have to convert into a tax since it's the only way to ensure it's fully funded.  It will be an easy transition since it's already being managed within the IRS.  The net result will be higher taxes for all but the very poor, less full-time jobs and the continued decline of the dollar.

At some point there will be an adjustment to the value of the US dollar world wide and when that happens we will likely see a major recession / depression that will change the world economy and may change the US position in the global economy.

These are not my predictions (but I do agree with their conclusions), they come from the same people that predicted the mortgage / financial collapse before it occurred - David Wiedemer, Robert Wiedemer and Cindy Spitzer in the book Aftershock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I have 4 distribution warehouses that i run, all items being shipped in from China, being sent to all the retail stores. The first 3Q's have been very hard on us to be honest margins are down still. Suppliers are being for a better word raped by the retail stores, so being in distribution we also take a hit on our margins to keep the customers.  There are a lot of distribution centers that will cut the rate just to fill there floors at this time, they feel something coming in is better then nothing but thank god we are full.

With that said 4Q normally has been a saving grace historically, but we are still not up to the volume we have had in the past at this time.  With Black Friday around the corner we should be starting to ship full force to the retailers DC's in order to get the merchandise in the store that has not happened yet. One thing I can say is the B to C (business to consumer) and .Com orders are way up this year already. I assume the way of the times, most people just order off web sites, free shipping better deals.

So by judging on what we are shipping and the volume I would say we are not out of the economy slump yet. Consumer buying and confidence says a lot to what we do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ACA is about to kick a LOT of people in the teeth come January.  It's gonna worse before it gets any better.

For those that think that the employment numbers are looking up, it's worth reminding everyone of something that the media has completely ignored (no surprise there)......that because of sequestration, federal unemployment benefits were significantly reduced, meaning that tens of thousands of people lost their benefits and were subsequently dropped from the unemployment roles.  They're not working......they're just not counted as unemployed because they're no longer receiving benefits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I think it will stumble along until we have certainty -- that the US will not default, that the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting, and that the parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I think it will stumble along until we have certainty -- that

the US will not default, that the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting, and that the parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably

US will not default - do you really think that this has been a major hold up of our economy?

That the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting - do you really think that those politicians are what's holding up our economy?

The parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably - that sounds great, but what does it mean? what can they compromise on that fixes the economy?  And what if they agree on the wrong idea?  I'm not sure compromise alone fixes an economy.  I don't know what does, but I haven't heard this before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have 4 distribution warehouses that i run, all items being shipped in from China, being sent to all the retail stores... Consumer buying and confidence says a lot to what we do.

The economic situation for the average Joe cannot and will not improve until we produce ALL our own energy, and nearly all our own products.

Consumers cannot consume unless they have productive work and reasonable fuel and energy prices.

Global economy be damned! :pound:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US will not default - do you really think that this has been a major hold up of our economy?

That the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting - do you really think that those politicians are what's holding up our economy?

The parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably - that sounds great, but what does it mean? what can they compromise on that fixes the economy?  And what if they agree on the wrong idea?  I'm not sure compromise alone fixes an economy.  I don't know what does, but I haven't heard this before.

None of this has an impact on the economy, it's just Obama rhetoric and excuses for why he's been ineffective in improving the economy.  His solution has been to print more money and make the government bigger and more powerful.

Everyone forgets that the debt ceiling and potential for government shutdown was strategically negotiated by Obama and the Republicans.  It was put in place to ensure all sides had skin in the game to make critical cuts to the budget.   Obama doesn't want to hold up his end of the deal so he paints the Tea Party as extremists, blames them exclusively for the shutdown so he can continue to move us towards more government provided services and higher taxes.

In the meantime, small businesses are being choked by higher taxes, higher healthcare costs and those that have survived have responded by cutting staff and hiring part time staff to replace full time to avoid paying benefits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Everyone forgets that the debt ceiling and potential for government shutdown was strategically negotiated by Obama and the Republicans.  I t was put in place to ensure all sides had skin in the game to make critical cuts to the budget. Obama doesn't want to hold up his end of the deal so he paints the Tea Party as extremists, blames them exclusively for the shutdown so he can continue to move us towards more government provided services and higher taxes.

I think you're thinking of the sequester. That was a law enacted in 2011 stipulating across-the-board cuts in 2013 if more nuanced cuts weren't made. No one put the debt ceiling into place, at least not recently. They just vote to raise it every so often.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Have fun, guys.

I like solutions.

the tea people have held things up, lowered our debt rating, and caused the Pubs not to act on needed legislation.

We could have had entitlement reform, immigration, budget cuts and tax solutions ... already.

But when  you have a small minority and a leadership who is too afraid of the extreme right wing and their wealthy benefactors (see Koch Brothers), afraid they  won't be re-elected because of this right wing money, then nothing gets done.

And that's not to mention the fact that the Pubs block Obama nominations ad nauseum not filling key administration and judicial posts, not because the candidates are not qualified, but because they are Democrats. If the Dems had acted that way, Clarence Thomas, the court's jester, would not have been confirmed.

It's just the way it  is. If the Pubs can't control everything, they cry and stall.

I expect filibuster rules to change as the Pubs get even less cooperative.

Reasonable Pubs can work with Obama... but these are unreasonable times.

Enjoy your debate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

This topic has been brought up before in other threads, but deserves a separate current state thread.

What does that mean to the average person?

The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes median household income data

2008    $53,644

2009    $53,285

2010    $51,892

2011    $51,100

2012    $51,017

If these statistics have any credibility, you would have to say that Americans, on average, have less money to spend. Considering that food and other consumer prices continue to increase, it seems as if the economy is still pretty depressed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes median household income data

2008    $53,644

2009    $53,285

2010    $51,892

2011    $51,100

2012    $51,017

If these statistics have any credibility, you would have to say that Americans, on average, have less money to spend. Considering that food and other consumer prices continue to increase, it seems as if the economy is still pretty depressed.

Which if you factor in inflation equates to $46,527, or $7117 less buying power today compared to 2008.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

The economic situation for the average Joe cannot and will not improve until we produce ALL our own energy, and nearly all our own products.

Consumers cannot consume unless they have productive work and reasonable fuel and energy prices.

Global economy be damned!

It is not all about fuel and productive work, this can be an easy fix.

1. Able to drill in the Antarctic for oil this would stop our dependence on other country’s oil.

2. Putting a tax in place for inbound products from other countries, they tax the crap out of us for shipping products to them so why not tax them. Make it so it is to expensive to import. But the Gov. will not do this because of big corporations that have gone overseas to produce at a cheap price for cheap goods. And we need there money here in the US.

3. China manufacture is now figuring out how to market their own goods here, buying up stores and using a co-op of many manufactures to fund it.  What this will do is cut the American suppler out or make it so they can no longer compete with the factory that makes their goods since they now make it for themselves, and market in the US. Many of the college grads from China are in marketing, why so they can figure out how to market for the China factory’s. There only real issue they are having is how to sell their goods under a name that we will not know is not American and how to set up a foreign corporation.

My company has people in the factory’s so if you think any of this is not true just wait and see,  it is coming  to a store near you.  And wait and see what this will do to our economy when it does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Id say things are getting better because unemployment claims are going down and car sales are up.  If people arent working and have no money, they arent buying cars.  To those of you who are saying that we need to start taxing the heck out of foreign products and start making things here again, that sounds great and it wins elections buts its not a reality of the world we now live in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Real Estate is stagnating due to lack of supply, and high housing prices. Only 25% of the people locally in CA can afford to own a home.

Employment is marginally better than this time last year.

What does that mean to the average person?

What are we waiting for to improve?

Yeah investing in California real estate is tough right now.  Got to look elsewhere, the Phoenix area is going through somewhat of a boom and have been seeing price spikes as much as 30-35% in the last two years.

Three days ago the Dow Jones closed at a record high thanks to expectations that the Fed will maintain its $85 billion worth of bond purchases every month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker101 View Post

It is not all about fuel and productive work, this can be an easy fix.

1. Able to drill in the Antarctic for oil this would stop our dependence on other country’s oil...

We have more than enough proven reserves to supply ALL domestic consumption for 200 yrs. Do not allow US energy to be exported to the world market and the price will be stabilized at a reasonable and fair rate (though not likely the $0.13 a gallon I paid when I bought my first car).

Quote:
2. Putting a tax in place for inbound products from other countries, they tax the crap out of us for shipping products to them so why not tax them. Make it so it is to expensive to import. But the Gov. will not do this because of big corporations that have gone overseas to produce at a cheap price for cheap goods. And we need there money here in the US.

Agreed. Tariffs protect domestic manufacturers and the labor they employ. If the FedGov was financed primarily by tariff and excise as it once was international corporations would not be as able to coerce politicians. The "cheap price for cheap goods" is only partially true. The imported goods are indeed cheap crap for the most part, but are sold for increasingly premium prices at the retail level.

Consider also that domestically produced goods benefit the domestic economy through multiple cycles - raw materials, manufacture, distribution, and retail all of which utilizing domestic labor. This keeps the currency flowing internally, negating trade deficits and multiplying the effect of each dollar by providing capital to the producer and jobs to labor (who can then become consumers perpetuating the cycle).

Quote:
3. China manufacture is now figuring out how to market their own goods here, buying up stores and using a co-op of many manufactures to fund it.  What this will do is cut the American suppler out or make it so they can no longer compete with the factory that makes their goods since they now make it for themselves, and market in the US. Many of the college grads from China are in marketing, why so they can figure out how to market for the China factory’s. There only real issue they are having is how to sell their goods under a name that we will not know is not American and how to set up a foreign corporation.

And so, those advocates of "Free Trade" who shipped out much of the US manufacturing capability in search of slave labor may have their just comeuppance. :-X

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have more than enough proven reserves to supply ALL domestic consumption for 200 yrs. Do not allow US energy to be exported to the world market and the price will be stabilized at a reasonable and fair rate (though not likely the $0.13 a gallon I paid when I bought my first car).

This prediction does even not include use of more fuel efficient cars and the proliferation of solar power in the southwest. California is a huge consumer of electricity. If we could supply some of it from solar power in the high desert, we could reduce natural gas consumption as well.

I think with more fuel efficiency and use of alternative (solar and wind), we have enough for many more years than that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0



  • Want to join this community?

    We'd love to have you!

    Sign Up
  • 2016 TST Partners

    GAME Golf
    PING Golf
    Lowest Score Wins
  • Posts

    • Willett's brother tried to be funny, but he was way offline. Bad effort in dry humor.. He should've not written anything like that. It's just going to make things harder for his brother and I'm sure Danny W. is gonna hear it from the crowds.
    • Willett's brother is not a part of the Ryder cup team. Willett made appologies: http://m.bbc.com/sport/golf/37500790
    • I like it. Especially compared to nearly all past US Ryder Cup kits. Actually before I dish out too much praise, do they have a huge Stars and Stripes flag emblazoned on the back?
    • I would say it depends on what club you're talking about. For drivers I would say that the best performing drivers of all time have been made within the last five years. Aerodynamics, material science, and the proliferation of launch monitors and data driven design have resulted in improvements across the board in distance and forgiveness as of late. I know that I personally saw a decent improvement on my G10 when I switched to a G30, in that I gained between 10 and 15 yards without sacrificing accuracy. This is on the high end of what aerodynamics can provide though, simply because higher swing speeds receive a greater benefit from decreased drag. Depending on the individual you may not see much difference so long as the driver itself was made within the last ten years or so. For irons I would be inclined to say that the main difference in the irons of yesteryear and the irons of today is forgiveness. The irons made today are much easier to hit than previous irons, simply because they aren't as drastically punishing on mis-hits as the old blades. The PING Eye2 irons seemed to be the first "widespread" GI iron that sparked the trend towards irons that were easier for the layman to hit. That being said, I found my s55 irons (their "blade" from several years ago) to be more forgiving than the Eye2's. Based on that and observations from other clubs I have hit I would say the average golfer would be best suited by irons made within the last 10 to 15 years that are in good condition with sharp grooves. If you play muscleback irons though, there's pretty much zero difference between modern "true" musclebacks and those of yore, though the current muscle-cavity irons (like the iBlade and MP-15) will likely be at least a bit easier to hit than the older blades while maintaining a similar style.  Wedges are the only thing that I would argue the "latest and greatest" provides a tangible benefit for. The reasoning for this is entirely different however, in that it's based solely off the condition of the grooves in older wedges. As wedges grow old, and get used, the grooves wear to the point that there becomes a noticeable performance difference - especially when playing out of the rough. For this reason alone do I say that the average golfer (assuming they golf at least once a week during the golfing season) is best suited by wedges no older than two or three years old.  Putters are the odd man out here. I don't think it matters in the slightest when your putter was manufactured, so long as you keep a reasonable grip on it so that it doesn't slip out of your hands. I personally am a fan of the newer milled putters for the feel they provide, but it doesn't mean I couldn't probably putt nearly as well with an original Anser putter in the same style. I think the average golfer is best suited by whatever putter style and features allow them to consistently roll the ball along their target line, with no age requirement. In summary, considering the advancement of technology, I would feel comfortable putting these "maximum age caps" on equipment for the average weekend golfer to get the most out of his/her game: Drivers: ~10 years old or newer Irons: ~15 years old or newer Wedges: ~3 years old or newer Putter: Whatever works best for you That being said, you may still enjoy the game with any kind of equipment out there. I just think that equipment that follows these guidelines will let the average weekend golfer get about as much as they can out of their game without necessarily breaking the bank. Like @iacas said, you may find incremental improvements by purchasing the R1 over an old G5 but the question then becomes whether or not this improvement is worth the price difference. This question can only be answered by the person buying the club. It can't be denied, however, that a driver from the 1960's will be severely outclassed by the G5 and the R1, making either of them a much better choice than the 1960's driver. Interestingly enough, I have had the desire to go the opposite way for a while now. I bought the s55's my last go around, and I'm thinking that my next set of irons will be a more "traditional" muscleback iron (since the s55 is mostly a CB), along the likes of the MP-4 irons by Mizuno. I hit the ball consistently enough that I don't care about the lack of forgiveness, and I believe that the wonderful look and feel of those irons, along with the little bit of extra vertical control (can thin it slightly to make punch shots even easier) would offset whatever I lose in forgiveness. I know that I would most certainly never go to an iron like the AP2, the G, or the M2. The chunky look of the club (along with the offset) gets into my head nowadays and makes me feel uncomfortable standing over the ball in a manner similar to how I used to be intimidated by the look of blades at address. I would gain forgiveness, but at the price of distance and trajectory control - an unacceptable trade for me considering I value distance and trajectory control much more highly than forgiveness.
    • My newest clubs are pretty old. Maybe 2006? I don't really remember. The other day, just for the heck of it,  I played using my old Bazooka Iron Woods. (2i-LW) Shot my normal score. Those Ironwoods are probably 15-16 years old. I don't think at this stage of my life, that a new set would make that much difference. 
  • TST Blog Entries

  • Images

  • Today's Birthdays

    1. mahariji_slice
      mahariji_slice
      (35 years old)
  • Blog Entries