Big Break Palm Beaches Discussion Thread

[RandallT]

This doesn't negate my point and, if anything, just reinforces it.

Richy's the only one so far that's choked in a pressure spot.  Justin was in a pressure spot by burning his medallion and sticking it close and, as you said, Richy put Robert in a pressure situation.

Like I said, it's only a small window.  IIRC, you're very big in what they've accomplished before the Big Break, and there's of course something to that, but I think we also need to account for what we've seen so far on the show, too, and roll it all together to make our determinations. But how often do we see a guy shoot 65 one day on tour then wake up and struggle to make 75. Not uncommon. So these guys can be on for some episodes, down for

Yes, I'm the guy guilty of looking at what the guys do before and after the show .

I get your point, and I think it's the prevalent one. Other forums align with you. I was lurking other places and Justin seems to be considered the favorite, with Robert next in line.  Richy is treated as a distant third, it seems. So I'm not trying to negate your opinion- I am just disagreeing with your opinion (and the others who think Justin is a significant favorite over Richy).

I think Richy has too many plusses (from before, during, and after the BB season) to counterbalance that mistake and that he is very much in the hunt for the BB finale:

- He bounced back after missing the short putts during the same episode. He didn't look phased one bit.

- He was clutch in the first 7 episodes of BB by earning immunity each time (Robert 6, Justin 5). Not a choke in those 7 episodes at all.

- He won 3 of his first 5 events after turning pro in June 2014. He knows how to win (before BB).

- He earned his way onto web.com with a solid performance at Q-school in December 2014 (before BB, I think). Justin did relatively poorly, and this was not long ago.

- He has made more cuts than he has missed this year on web.com (after BB). (No great finishes though)

So yes, I look at everything and weigh his overall picture more than what we've seen so far. Everyone who is choosing Justin over Richy is deciding that what we've seen on the show overrides how their careers are going. Nothing wrong with that. I'll just go against the grain on this one.

It was similar to when everyone was down on Jimmy at Myrtle Beach. Consensus had him as going down early, despite his experience level. I commented frequently that people shouldn't count him out. His record before and after Big Break was better than those he was competing with  (I think Charlie had the best experience, actually, but he fell early-ish).  Eventually, Jimmy put things together (of course, he only needed to beat Toph in the finale, who had no real recent achievement at that point in his career).

Richy could very easily pull a Jimmy this season- all I'm saying. In fact, Richy looks better relatively to Justin/Robert than Jimmy did to his competitors at this point. Jimmy looked shaky for much of the season, as I recall. But his documented experience showed otherwise.

Of course, when Richy goes down in flames next episode, I'll get the "See, he is a choker!" taunts. Bring it on!

I'm just glad that all three of these guys left seem better than the typical stock of players late in a season.

[RFKFREAK]

Yes, I'm the guy guilty of looking at what the guys do before and after the show .

I get your point, and I think it's the prevalent one. Other forums align with you. I was lurking other places and Justin seems to be considered the favorite, with Robert next in line.  Richy is treated as a distant third, it seems. So I'm not trying to negate your opinion- I am just disagreeing with your opinion (and the others who think Justin is a significant favorite over Richy).

I think Richy has too many plusses (from before, during, and after the BB season) to counterbalance that mistake and that he is very much in the hunt for the BB finale:

- He bounced back after missing the short putts during the same episode. He didn't look phased one bit.

- He was clutch in the first 7 episodes of BB by earning immunity each time (Robert 6, Justin 5). Not a choke in those 7 episodes at all.

- He won 3 of his first 5 events after turning pro in June 2014. He knows how to win (before BB).

- He earned his way onto web.com with a solid performance at Q-school in December 2014 (before BB, I think). Justin did relatively poorly, and this was not long ago.

- He has made more cuts than he has missed this year on web.com (after BB). (No great finishes though)

So yes, I look at everything and weigh his overall picture more than what we've seen so far. Everyone who is choosing Justin over Richy is deciding that what we've seen on the show overrides how their careers are going. Nothing wrong with that. I'll just go against the grain on this one.

It was similar to when everyone was down on Jimmy at Myrtle Beach. Consensus had him as going down early, despite his experience level. I commented frequently that people shouldn't count him out. His record before and after Big Break was better than those he was competing with  (I think Charlie had the best experience, actually, but he fell early-ish).  Eventually, Jimmy put things together (of course, he only needed to beat Toph in the finale, who had no real recent achievement at that point in his career).

Richy could very easily pull a Jimmy this season- all I'm saying. In fact, Richy looks better relatively to Justin/Robert than Jimmy did to his competitors at this point. Jimmy looked shaky for much of the season, as I recall. But his documented experience showed otherwise.

Of course, when Richy goes down in flames next episode, I'll get the "See, he is a choker!" taunts. Bring it on!

I'm just glad that all three of these guys left seem better than the typical stock of players late in a season.

Oh, I won't be surprised at all if Richy wins.  I wouldn't be surprised if anyone wins.  I'm just saying if I were handicapping it, I'd install Justin and Robert ahead of Richy.  That said, based purely on how they've performed on the show, Richy looks way more solid than Jimmy and whomever ends up the winner, they'll probably have a better competitor in the finals than Jimmy did.

I personally appreciate the background info you do for these shows as it gives up a perspective of the cast and what we can expect from them on the show.  I probably don't lean enough on their backgrounds going into the show.  It just appears to me that whatever Justin lacks for in his game in comparison to Robert and Richy, he more than makes up for in how he approaches each situation and how it impacts his shot selection.

Hopefully we'll see some good golf to end this season.

[Back 9 Bandit]

This is one of the best seasons to date. I am finally caught up on the show and I am impressed with the golf abilities of the competitors. Being from MA I am rooting for Richy. However, cool calm and collective Justin looks to be the one to beat. Rohanna will be successful either way win or loose much like Sadena of the last show.

[RandallT]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandallT

Yes, I'm the guy guilty of looking at what the guys do before and after the show .

I get your point, and I think it's the prevalent one. Other forums align with you. I was lurking other places and Justin seems to be considered the favorite, with Robert next in line.  Richy is treated as a distant third, it seems. So I'm not trying to negate your opinion- I am just disagreeing with your opinion (and the others who think Justin is a significant favorite over Richy).

I think Richy has too many plusses (from before, during, and after the BB season) to counterbalance that mistake and that he is very much in the hunt for the BB finale:

- He bounced back after missing the short putts during the same episode. He didn't look phased one bit.

- He was clutch in the first 7 episodes of BB by earning immunity each time (Robert 6, Justin 5). Not a choke in those 7 episodes at all.

- He won 3 of his first 5 events after turning pro in June 2014. He knows how to win (before BB).

- He earned his way onto web.com with a solid performance at Q-school in December 2014 (before BB, I think). Justin did relatively poorly, and this was not long ago.

- He has made more cuts than he has missed this year on web.com (after BB). (No great finishes though)

So yes, I look at everything and weigh his overall picture more than what we've seen so far. Everyone who is choosing Justin over Richy is deciding that what we've seen on the show overrides how their careers are going. Nothing wrong with that. I'll just go against the grain on this one.

It was similar to when everyone was down on Jimmy at Myrtle Beach. Consensus had him as going down early, despite his experience level. I commented frequently that people shouldn't count him out. His record before and after Big Break was better than those he was competing with  (I think Charlie had the best experience, actually, but he fell early-ish).  Eventually, Jimmy put things together (of course, he only needed to beat Toph in the finale, who had no real recent achievement at that point in his career).

Richy could very easily pull a Jimmy this season- all I'm saying. In fact, Richy looks better relatively to Justin/Robert than Jimmy did to his competitors at this point. Jimmy looked shaky for much of the season, as I recall. But his documented experience showed otherwise.

Of course, when Richy goes down in flames next episode, I'll get the "See, he is a choker!" taunts. Bring it on!

I'm just glad that all three of these guys left seem better than the typical stock of players late in a season.

Oh, I won't be surprised at all if Richy wins.  I wouldn't be surprised if anyone wins.  I'm just saying if I were handicapping it, I'd install Justin and Robert ahead of Richy.  That said, based purely on how they've performed on the show, Richy looks way more solid than Jimmy and whomever ends up the winner, they'll probably have a better competitor in the finals than Jimmy did.

I personally appreciate the background info you do for these shows as it gives up a perspective of the cast and what we can expect from them on the show.  I probably don't lean enough on their backgrounds going into the show.  It just appears to me that whatever Justin lacks for in his game in comparison to Robert and Richy, he more than makes up for in how he approaches each situation and how it impacts his shot selection.

Hopefully we'll see some good golf to end this season.

I'm in a tough spot, because the best story to me is Justin winning. He needs it for his career, and I like his grit. I think I'll pull for Justin.

But I picked Robert/Richy early on before episode 1, so I kinda want to be right with that guess.

Is this a win/win situation for me, or a lose/lose?

[RFKFREAK]

I'm in a tough spot, because the best story to me is Justin winning. He needs it for his career, and I like his grit. I think I'll pull for Justin.

But I picked Robert/Richy early on before episode 1, so I kinda want to be right with that guess.

Is this a win/win situation for me, or a lose/lose?

Hmm, win/lose?

If Justin win's you'll be happy for him but razzed because you picked Justin and Robert in the finals.

Although, that in and of itself is pretty impressive.

So, maybe win/lose/win?

[RandallT]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandallT

I'm in a tough spot, because the best story to me is Justin winning. He needs it for his career, and I like his grit. I think I'll pull for Justin.

But I picked Robert/Richy early on before episode 1, so I kinda want to be right with that guess.

Is this a win/win situation for me, or a lose/lose?

Hmm, win/lose?

If Justin win's you'll be happy for him but razzed because you picked Justin and Robert in the finals.

Although, that in and of itself is pretty impressive.

So, maybe win/lose/win?

Lol yes. I'll go with that. Anything to make up for my pick of Charlie at MB.

[RandallT]

Looks like Robert has a cousin playing on the ladies' Symetra Tour: http://www.symetratour.com/golf/players/r/rachel-rohanna/results.aspx (currently 18th on the money list, needs top 10 to make LPGA).

I googled if they were related, and found this: http://www.heraldstandard.com/gcm/sports/big-break-the-palm-beaches-fl-premieres-on-monday/article_af8ab403-aa06-5fe8-bcd4-32ae25c9ae32.html

In that article:

According to Rohanna, golfing for television is not an average round of golf. The show was taped over 16 days.

“We got mic’d up at 5:30 a.m. They fit you with this thing that goes around your stomach like a girdle. It’s terrible. It’s the most uncomfortable thing. The microphone is on the shirt collar,” explained Rohanna.

Not that any of the guys got out of hand verbally, but Rohanna is curious to hear what the mics picked up.

“I’m anxious to see what they did with our words,” said Rohanna.

The golfers were made ready for TV (“touched up a little bit, that was different” described Rohanna of makeup) and were recorded as they ate breakfast at 5:30 a.m.

“We were done early compared to some. We had a challenge, lunch, another challenge and then the elimination challenge. Most of the time we went straight through and skipped lunch. Then, we had interviews.”

Golfing on a reality show is a lot different than teeing it up for a tournament.

“It was a blast,” said Rohanna. “You don’t go there to practice and get better. There were 20 cameras and you can’t hit until they tell you to hit.

“It was a great experience for me. Every shot was like the first shot of a tournament. It can be one shot and you’re done.”

Rohanna even picked up a little producer during the show, pitching an idea for a future show.

“They should have a family one. Rachel (Rohanna-Virgili, his cousin) and me, we could be a team. They’ve never done a 2-person team before. That would be fun.”

He also mentions that this season was shot during the Ecuador Open for the PGA Latin America Tour, so he missed that event. That was in September 2014. I thought the season was shot more recently than that.

[RFKFREAK]

Looks like Robert has a cousin playing on the ladies' Symetra Tour: http://www.symetratour.com/golf/players/r/rachel-rohanna/results.aspx (currently 18th on the money list, needs top 10 to make LPGA).

I googled if they were related, and found this: http://www.heraldstandard.com/gcm/sports/big-break-the-palm-beaches-fl-premieres-on-monday/article_af8ab403-aa06-5fe8-bcd4-32ae25c9ae32.html

In that article:

Quote:

According to Rohanna, golfing for television is not an average round of golf. The show was taped over 16 days.

“We got mic’d up at 5:30 a.m. They fit you with this thing that goes around your stomach like a girdle. It’s terrible. It’s the most uncomfortable thing. The microphone is on the shirt collar,” explained Rohanna.

Not that any of the guys got out of hand verbally, but Rohanna is curious to hear what the mics picked up.

“I’m anxious to see what they did with our words,” said Rohanna.

The golfers were made ready for TV (“touched up a little bit, that was different” described Rohanna of makeup) and were recorded as they ate breakfast at 5:30 a.m.

“We were done early compared to some. We had a challenge, lunch, another challenge and then the elimination challenge. Most of the time we went straight through and skipped lunch. Then, we had interviews.”

Golfing on a reality show is a lot different than teeing it up for a tournament.

“It was a blast,” said Rohanna. “You don’t go there to practice and get better. There were 20 cameras and you can’t hit until they tell you to hit.

“It was a great experience for me. Every shot was like the first shot of a tournament. It can be one shot and you’re done.”

Rohanna even picked up a little producer during the show, pitching an idea for a future show.

“They should have a family one. Rachel (Rohanna-Virgili, his cousin) and me, we could be a team. They’ve never done a 2-person team before. That would be fun.”

He also mentions that this season was shot during the Ecuador Open for the PGA Latin America Tour, so he missed that event. That was in September 2014. I thought the season was shot more recently than that.

Robert may be a good golfer but he's not a student of history.  They did a 2 person team one (Big Break X: Michigan) the year Brandt Snedeker's brother won it.

[Eack]

So who watched last night?

[MrDC]

It was surprising, Richy showed up and played really well, and shut up us doubters.

Robert has the length and that's why I though he was the eventual winner, but his length is just too wild for the Bear Trap, guys that are shorter but accurate will win those holes almost every time and that's what happened, bad bunker break for Robert though, that was an impossible shot.

It should be interesting to see who wins, both finalists have some shaky putting.

[newtogolf]

Aside from the shot in the water, Roberts putter cost him the win.  He had a few chances with the putter to bury Justin but couldn't get the speed right.  It should be a great finale, Justin needs to get more distance off the tee or it could be a long day for him.

[Golfingdad]

Aside from the shot in the water, Roberts putter cost him the win.  He had a few chances with the putter to bury Justin but couldn't get the speed right.  It should be a great finale, Justin needs to get more distance off the tee or it could be a long day for him.

Well, Justin missed a near gimme on the first hole, so I don't think putting was the difference. ;)

It was the bad break on 15 which was facilitated by the poor tee shot.  If he didn't plug into that bunker then he's likely making bogey instead of double and coming in second outright.

[newtogolf]

Well, Justin missed a near gimme on the first hole, so I don't think putting was the difference. ;)

It was the bad break on 15 which was facilitated by the poor tee shot.  If he didn't plug into that bunker then he's likely making bogey instead of double and coming in second outright.

I forgot about the gimme Justin missed.  I guess I was influenced by the hosts talking about Roberts poor putting so much through the show.

The course was in terrible shape which favored Justin because Robert wasn't getting any run out on his drives, I've never seen a ball plugged that bad in a trap.  I do think he messed up trying to hit it on the green given the way it was plugged and on a downward lie.  I might have gone the other way with it just to be sure I got it out on the first shot.

[Back 9 Bandit]

I forgot about the gimme Justin missed.  I guess I was influenced by the hosts talking about Roberts poor putting so much through the show.

The course was in terrible shape which favored Justin because Robert wasn't getting any run out on his drives, I've never seen a ball plugged that bad in a trap.  I do think he messed up trying to hit it on the green given the way it was plugged and on a downward lie.  I might have gone the other way with it just to be sure I got it out on the first shot.

I noticed that it wasnt in great shape either. By the looks of the sky it was threatening rain as well. But that goes to show you that one bad shot (more like landing) can be the difference. If that rolled just a little out of the plugged lie Rob would have gotten up and down 9/10 times.

[Golfingdad]

I do think he messed up trying to hit it on the green given the way it was plugged and on a downward lie.  I might have gone the other way with it just to be sure I got it out on the first shot.

I actually don't know that he wasn't trying to do basically what he ended up doing.  A straightforward bunker shot for these guys is likely equal to or easier than a flop shot from the rough behind the bunker.

I did think it was humorous though, the way they edited it together.  Either Robert or the host narrated over the video that Robert "has no idea what to do here" and they immediately cut to him looking at the ball in the bunker saying "I have no idea what to do here."

Side note:  Those last four holes look so much different without the bleachers, advertisements, and thousands of people around them.  The houses around the course are a lot more prominent at that point too.

[RFKFREAK]

I don't want to say Justin was handed his ticket to the final but he didn't play well. Putting was bad, off the tee he was short. His approach shots with his irons were the only thing working for him. All that said, if you're going to have a bad day, lady luck needs to be on your side to advance. Richy was on which isn't surprising. He didn't have any real pressure, must make situations but you can't fault him for that. He played what I'd gather was his A game. Robert's lipping out a couple putts, sub-par iron play, and ofc dumping of his tee shot in the water did him in. Obviously not a good day. Should be a good final!

[natureboy]

I forgot about the gimme Justin missed.  I guess I was influenced by the hosts talking about Roberts poor putting so much through the show.

The course was in terrible shape which favored Justin because Robert wasn't getting any run out on his drives, I've never seen a ball plugged that bad in a trap.  I do think he messed up trying to hit it on the green given the way it was plugged and on a downward lie.  I might have gone the other way with it just to be sure I got it out on the first shot.

I was initially going to question whether a ball sitting down in deep Bermuda like Robert's earlier approach shot was an improvement over a ball sitting up in the bottom of the bunker, but then I remembered this graphic from one of Mark Broadie's papers:

[RandallT]

I just watched the episode, and after the approach shots on the first hole, I thought it was going to be an incredible shootout. Robert was furthest from the hole at 8 feet, and Justin closest at around 3 feet.  But Richy was the only one to get the birdie, surprisingly.  The whole episode seemed like that- mostly good shots, but Robert and Justin just not delivering when it counted, with Richy doing just enough to stay in front.

I think those 6 holes (I loved the simple format of 6 holes BTW) came down to missed "green zone" putts by all of them, and 3 wayward full swings (2 by Robert and 1 by Justin). Robert had his chances to sneak through but he just couldn't deliver (or recover from his misses).  Robert had too many mistakes this episode, and clearly "earned" the defeat, but on other days, you get the sense that he could've cruised to the finale.

Robert is very good-natured, classy, and sportsmanlike. I'll be cheering him on in his career, although I don't see him competing too much thus far in 2015. I think he's still playing the Latin America tour, but he has some sort of conditional status on web.com.

His world ranking is now 650, but it was better than that late 2014:

None of the other competitors play events (or have done well enough in events) that count for OWGR points. He needs to get back to his strong finishes he was getting last year in Latin America. If he plays some on web.com, he'll need to take full advantage. Those will be his real "big break" opportunities. I saw a quick interview segment with him, and he was at the Masters this year, and he was surprised how many people were cheering him on, hoping he would win the season.  Must be tough to keep the secret for so long, as I think the show was filmed in September 2014!

Richy and Justin say they've played a lot in the past and know each other's games, but I don't see them intersecting too much in their careers from what I've researched, as Richy is 3 years younger, I think. The only tourney I know they competed together was the December 2014 Q-school, where Richy qualified for web.com, but Justin didn't. Based on that, I think Justin needs this "break" more than Richy- plus he's been working at it for longer.  Richy has the web.com tour to prove himself.

My gut still tells me Richy will methodically out-duel Justin over 18 holes, and Justin might force the issue a bit because he knows his lack of length hurts him. Justin got a bit aggressive on the 18th hole prior to the playoff because he seemed a bit pressured by Robert's length. Instead of playing his own game, he tried to go for the green over the water and dunked it.

All season, his money game was wedges and putting. I think if Justin is going to beat Richy, he will do it by sticking to the amazing strengths we saw all season.  If he sticks to his strengths and doesn't feel the pressure of trying to match Richy off the tee and with going for the green on par 5's, he definitely could keep applying pressure to Richy.

Richy has not yet shown he is as strong on this show as his record shows he is. He's just very methodical and not flashy. I see some flashes of Jordan Spieth in him- his looks a little bit. But also his swing (kinda mechanical looking?) and style of game somehow. Anyone else? Obviously not nearly as good, but he does remind me a bit of Jordan at times. Probably just me.