2015 NFL Football Thread

[onthehunt526]

Cleveland and the Rat Birds are tanking, so it really doesnt matter anymore, Cleveland stinks. The Rat Birds are trying to get a high draft pick to rebuild.

Scary Thought: Pittsburgh wins out and probably misses the playoffs, don't really want to be a New England fan Week 16... That's the only game the Jets might lose. The AFC wild card is about as much of a mess as the AFC south and NFC East.

Thought: The NFC East is by far the shittiest division in football... Philadelphia is playing better, Washington is starting to play better, and the Giants have just sucked... All things being equal if all 4 teams were healthy Dallas is the best team in that division.

Another Thought: Peyton Manning will be forced to retire at the end of this season... 

Carolina is stupid good, and not getting the credit they deserve, PERIOD. They've made "Elite" Teams, look bad...

Kansas City is getting very little love, They've won 7 in a row, 8-5 and firmly in the #5 Seed in the AFC playoff race, I do not see them losing the rest of the year... They are a very good football team, and deserve more credit than they are getting.

Denver is in deep trouble, I mean deep trouble, if they lose to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, they might not even make the playoffs... (They close with San Diego), but there goes the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.

As much as I hate to say this, Cincinnati will win the AFC North, even if Pittsburgh wins out, I think they'll finish 12-4...

With 3 weeks left my Prediction for each conference's playoff teams.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis (4 Seed)

AFC North: Cincinnati (2 Seed)

AFC East: New England (1 Seed)

AFC West: Denver (3 Seed)*

Wild Card 1: Kansas City

Wild Card 2: Pittsburgh

First Out: NY Jets

 

NFC South: Carolina (1 Seed)-y

NFC West- Arizona (2 Seed)

NFC North- Green Bay (3 Seed)

NFC East- NY Giants (4 Seed) though I shouldn't touch this division with a ten foot pole.

Wildcard 1: Minnesota

Wildcard 2: Seattle

First Out: Tampa Bay

*Kansas City could potential jump into this spot IF they win out  AND Denver loses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

[RFKFREAK]

On 12/15/2015 at 9:22 PM, onthehunt526 said:

Cleveland and the Rat Birds are tanking, so it really doesnt matter anymore, Cleveland stinks. The Rat Birds are trying to get a high draft pick to rebuild.

Scary Thought: Pittsburgh wins out and probably misses the playoffs, don't really want to be a New England fan Week 16... That's the only game the Jets might lose. The AFC wild card is about as much of a mess as the AFC south and NFC East.

Thought: The NFC East is by far the shittiest division in football... Philadelphia is playing better, Washington is starting to play better, and the Giants have just sucked... All things being equal if all 4 teams were healthy Dallas is the best team in that division.

Another Thought: Peyton Manning will be forced to retire at the end of this season... 

Carolina is stupid good, and not getting the credit they deserve, PERIOD. They've made "Elite" Teams, look bad...

Kansas City is getting very little love, They've won 7 in a row, 8-5 and firmly in the #5 Seed in the AFC playoff race, I do not see them losing the rest of the year... They are a very good football team, and deserve more credit than they are getting.

Denver is in deep trouble, I mean deep trouble, if they lose to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, they might not even make the playoffs... (They close with San Diego), but there goes the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.

As much as I hate to say this, Cincinnati will win the AFC North, even if Pittsburgh wins out, I think they'll finish 12-4...

With 3 weeks left my Prediction for each conference's playoff teams.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis (4 Seed)

AFC North: Cincinnati (2 Seed)

AFC East: New England (1 Seed)

AFC West: Denver (3 Seed)*

Wild Card 1: Kansas City

Wild Card 2: Pittsburgh

First Out: NY Jets

 

NFC South: Carolina (1 Seed)-y

NFC West- Arizona (2 Seed)

NFC North- Green Bay (3 Seed)

NFC East- NY Giants (4 Seed) though I shouldn't touch this division with a ten foot pole.

Wildcard 1: Minnesota

Wildcard 2: Seattle

First Out: Tampa Bay

*Kansas City could potential jump into this spot IF they win out  AND Denver loses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

I doubt Denver is going to close to Cincy with Dalton, at least last I heard, questionable to return this season.

I'm going to be a huge Denver fan this weekend. 

[saevel25]

By football outsiders,

Those who are probably going to Win their Division in the NFC
CAR: 100%
ARI: 99%
GB: 78%

The mess that is the NFC east 
PHI: 45%
WAS: 32%
NYG: 27%

Wild Card %
SEA: 99%
MIN: 67%

Those who are going to Win their Division in the AFC
NE: 100%
CIN: 99%
DEN: 97%
HOU: 46% or IND: 45%

Wild Card %
KC: 91%
PIT: 71%
NYJ: 29%

[jbishop15]

9 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

By football outsiders,

Those who are probably going to Win their Division in the NFC
CAR: 100%
ARI: 99%
GB: 78%

The mess that is the NFC east 
PHI: 45%
WAS: 32%
NYG: 27%

Wild Card %
SEA: 99%
MIN: 67%

Those who are going to Win their Division in the AFC
NE: 100%
CIN: 99%
DEN: 97%
HOU: 46% or IND: 45%

Wild Card %
KC: 91%
PIT: 71%
NYJ: 29%

KC getting the wildcard would be an incredible turnaround. They were so bad at the start of the season. 

[onthehunt526]

11 hours ago, jbishop15 said:

KC getting the wildcard would be an incredible turnaround. They were so bad at the start of the season. 

UPDATE: Seeing how PIT and NYJ both have a really difficult game remaining... And PIT has the common opponents tiebreaker, and PIT can't possibly play a sub-.200 team on the road. I think PIT at 10-6 makes the playoffs, we beat DEN the Jets are in huge trouble.

Is the other 9% in the AFC South Jacksonville by chance? There are a couple scanerios if they win out they would win the division, even a tie with Houston (both finish 8-8) Jacksonville would win the division, Just the Colts can't finish 8-8 for them to win the division. 

Even OAK isn't mathematically eliminated yet... I mean practically yes, Mathematically not yet, they would need PIT, NYJ, and KC to all finish 8-8 and win out (well 2 of the three anyway).

No one wants the Giants to play WC weekend

[boogielicious]

I hate the extortion the NFL is doing to San Diego, Oakland and St. Louis. The fans of those teams have been great and the NFL and owners are really putting the screws into them and the cities to pony up money. It's disgusting. They act like billionaire owners can't afford to rebuild stadiums with their own money. Kraft did it for the Pats. He first tried the extortion technique and got shut out. But it worked out fine for him in the end. I don't get it. Their hurting the very source of their income.

[RFKFREAK]

On 12/16/2015 at 10:57 AM, onthehunt526 said:

UPDATE: Seeing how PIT and NYJ both have a really difficult game remaining... And PIT has the common opponents tiebreaker, and PIT can't possibly play a sub-.200 team on the road. I think PIT at 10-6 makes the playoffs, we beat DEN the Jets are in huge trouble.

Is the other 9% in the AFC South Jacksonville by chance? There are a couple scanerios if they win out they would win the division, even a tie with Houston (both finish 8-8) Jacksonville would win the division, Just the Colts can't finish 8-8 for them to win the division. 

Even OAK isn't mathematically eliminated yet... I mean practically yes, Mathematically not yet, they would need PIT, NYJ, and KC to all finish 8-8 and win out (well 2 of the three anyway).

No one wants the Giants to play WC weekend

Yup, Pitt holds their playoff destiny in their own hands.

Vegas also agrees with you.  Pitt is a 7 point favorite this week and I can't see them being underdogs against the Ravens or the Browns as long as they don't lose any key players.  Also, Vegas is hugely bullish on the Steelers right now to win the AFC Championship at 2:1, behind only the Pats at 7:5.

Ultimately, though, I think that the Steelers are going to lose one more game, whether it's this week against the Broncos (who I'm surprised are 7 point dogs; thought it'd be a tighter line) or one of their division rivals who will be playing for pride.  It'll be on the Jets to not let Saturday be a trap game and step up against the Pats and Buffalo to earn a playoff spot because KC has no business losing any of their remaining games (although, they haven't looked very dominant recently). 

 

14 hours ago, boogielicious said:

I hate the extortion the NFL is doing to San Diego, Oakland and St. Louis. The fans of those teams have been great and the NFL and owners are really putting the screws into them and the cities to pony up money. It's disgusting. They act like billionaire owners can't afford to rebuild stadiums with their own money. Kraft did it for the Pats. He first tried the extortion technique and got shut out. But it worked out fine for him in the end. I don't get it. Their hurting the very source of their income.

Yeah, I love my Jets but the league they play in is made up of a bunch of people who care only about maximizing their bottom line.

[onthehunt526]

11 hours ago, RFKFREAK said:

Yup, Pitt holds their playoff destiny in their own hands.

Vegas also agrees with you.  Pitt is a 7 point favorite this week and I can't see them being underdogs against the Ravens or the Browns as long as they don't lose any key players.  Also, Vegas is hugely bullish on the Steelers right now to win the AFC Championship at 2:1, behind only the Pats at 7:5.

Ultimately, though, I think that the Steelers are going to lose one more game, whether it's this week against the Broncos (who I'm surprised are 7 point dogs; thought it'd be a tighter line) or one of their division rivals who will be playing for pride.  It'll be on the Jets to not let Saturday be a trap game and step up against the Pats and Buffalo to earn a playoff spot because KC has no business losing any of their remaining games (although, they haven't looked very dominant recently). 

 

Yeah, I love my Jets but the league they play in is made up of a bunch of people who care only about maximizing their bottom line.

It is a tight line, you AUTOMATICALLY get 3 points for Home Field advantage, so Denver is a 4 point dog in reality.

[RFKFREAK]

33 minutes ago, onthehunt526 said:

It is a tight line, you AUTOMATICALLY get 3 points for Home Field advantage, so Denver is a 4 point dog in reality.

I've always viewed home field as 2 automatically, not 3.  Either way, whether it's 4 or 5 points, it's still more than a FG which I think is what the line should be.  I think the line is 7 predominantly because of Brock's performance (or lack thereof) last week and not really taking into account that the Broncos have a solid defense.

We shall see, though.

[iacas]

10 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

It is a tight line, you AUTOMATICALLY get 3 points for Home Field advantage, so Denver is a 4 point dog in reality.

Yeah, that's not true at all, really.

Vegas gambles. People have all sorts of weird misconceptions about how Vegas and sports betting is set up.

The public likes home teams, and they tend to like the favorites. Vegas will "gamble" too and they still win against the public the right way.

That said, the line's been moving in favor of the Steelers. The smart money likes them too, this week. A good sign, but still only in the 55-60% range for how that correlates to outcome.

[RFKFREAK]

On 12/19/2015 at 9:37 PM, RFKFREAK said:

Ultimately, though, I think that the Steelers are going to lose one more game, whether it's this week against the Broncos (who I'm surprised are 7 point dogs; thought it'd be a tighter line) or one of their division rivals who will be playing for pride.   

With the Jets winning today, I'm pretty happy about this prediction coming true.

Jets hold their playoff hopes in their own hands and have to beat former head coach Rex Ryan and the Bills to get in! 

[Dave325]

7 minutes ago, RFKFREAK said:

With the Jets winning today, I'm pretty happy about this prediction coming true.

Jets hold their playoff hopes in their own hands and have to beat former head coach Rex Ryan and the Bills to get in! 

Yes, it was good to see them beat the Pats.

[boogielicious]

29 minutes ago, Dave325 said:

Yes, it was good to see them beat the Pats.

They were playing against backups, so I wouldn't get too high on the win. They need to beat Rex and the Bills next week.

[RFKFREAK]

3 hours ago, boogielicious said:

They were playing against backups, so I wouldn't get too high on the win. They need to beat Rex and the Bills next week.

Why wouldn't you get too high.  They are 10-5, have won 5 straight, and now control their own destiny.

Any Jet fan knows that beating Rex and the Bills won't be easy next week but it's not like they're playing the Carolina Panthers or Arizona Cardinals.  In fact, the Jets are favored in against the Bills and considering where this team was last year, making the playoffs would be a huge accomplishment.

 

[saevel25]

Looks like Chip Kelly its out at HC in Philly. 

[nevets88]

Nice swing, Marcus Allen!

 

[dak4n6]

What, no buzz about Chip being let go by the Eagles? All of the Philly area is talking about it.

When he booted McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, and Fowles, as a Giants fan I gave him two thumbs up and figured that would make it much easier for Big Blue to win the NFC E. But, I didn't count on Blue also sucking. Worst. Defense. Ever.

[Fourputt]

1 hour ago, dak4n6 said:

What, no buzz about Chip being let go by the Eagles? All of the Philly area is talking about it.

When he booted McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, and Fowles, as a Giants fan I gave him two thumbs up and figured that would make it much easier for Big Blue to win the NFC E. But, I didn't count on Blue also sucking. Worst. Defense. Ever.

I was sort of expecting it.  The few times I saw much of the Eagles this year, there seemed to be a lack of energy in the players.  I really got the feeling that they had given up on his philosophy.  It was a surprise that first year, but once teams figured out how to defend it, offensive production went way down.  

He didn't seem to have any wrinkles to change it up, and he was wearing out his defense by making them stay on the field too much.  When his fast paced offense repeatedly used only a minute or two on the clock, it didn't give the defense time to recover.

Not to mention that it was potential death for a pro quarterback.  Almost as bad as the college option.