How would a scramble team fare in the US Open?

[rkim291968]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkim291968

If I were to pick a team, I will pick a long drive specialist, accurate drive specialist (in case long drive goes into water), short game wiz, and a putting expert.   This team can make the cut and possibly do even better.

I don't think that sort of team would have a chance. You can't rely on just one long hitter because every par 4 and 5 on a US Open needs a big shot. 230-240 in the fairway doesn't help the team out if they still need 240+ to the green leaving the long hitter as the only chance at a GIR or nGIR. Plus you need everyone to produce at their specialty. One guy having a bad day puts a huge hole in the skill set. Perhaps your team would do alright at the rare short venue like Merion in 2013 but definitely no shot at Chambers Bay

Good counterpoint.   I was thinking the 3 other golfers can cover a specialist somewhat if he has a bad day at his specialty.   My other option is to put 4 sandbaggers in the team ... .

[GolfLug]

I think you're just stuck with your vote.  No big whoop though.

But, yeah, if somebody decided to pull a Martin Kaymer '14, Rory '11, or especially a Tiger '00 ... then, yeah, it's a safe bet that our little scramble team would be out of the running.

But often times, it's just a survival of the fittest, war of attrition, and when you get 4 tries to avoid all of the pitfalls that the single entrants will all have to recover from, then you have a crazy large advantage.

I also recognize that there are very different types of 6 handicaps out there.  I'm speaking on behalf of myself, and @saevel25 is doing the same.  I believe that we are both the "right" kind of 6 handicaps for something like this.  The kind who are very capable of hitting it 290 (me) or more (Matt) off the tee but lose strokes with wildness.  If this team is made up of short and straight hitting 6 handicappers who rarely who are more consistent, then I think that they will have a harder time of it as a team.

Honestly, I have not met many 6-8 (or even 5ers) who plonk it out there 280, straight or not. Must suck to be you. I think I was generous with 260+. Anyway, so let's say the team is 2 super studs and 2 steady eddies. That would be 20+ FIR drives over 280+ per each of the 2 big drivers. You better not have an off day.

I don't think that sort of team would have a chance. You can't rely on just one long hitter because every par 4 and 5 on a US Open needs a big shot. 230-240 in the fairway doesn't help the team out if they still need 240+ to the green leaving the long hitter as the only chance at a GIR or nGIR. Plus you need everyone to produce at their specialty. One guy having a bad day puts a huge hole in the skill set. Perhaps your team would do alright at the rare short venue like Merion in 2013 but definitely no shot at Chambers Bay

+1. What are the chances of 4 players, 6-8 handicap not having a single off day, better yet 4 straight days of absolute A+ golf in no less than a US open? That's just to make sure that each shot has at least 1 of the 4 who will save that one.

[rkim291968]

+1. What are the chances of 4 players, 6-8 handicap not having a single off day, better yet 4 straight days of absolute A+ golf in no less than a US open? That's just to make sure that each shot has at least 1 of the 4 who will save that one.

Never mind 4 straight days.   The team will most likely flop on the 1st day given the US Open setting (unfamiliar distance, green, crowd, pressure).   I give the team some chance on 2nd day but the damage may have been done in the 1st round to make the cut.

As far as picking a special team, at the end, they are going to play like 6 - 8 handicap golfers and things will average out.   BTW, I think it will make a difference between picking four 6 vs four 8 handicappers for the team.   That 2 point difference per player is pretty significant come to think of it.

[Golfingdad]

If I were to pick a team, I will pick a long drive specialist, accurate drive specialist (in case long drive goes into water), short game wiz, and a putting expert.   This team can make the cut and possibly do even better.

I'd go with 4 guys like me and Matt. :)  The "long drive specialists" can also be the "accurate drive specialists" with their 3 woods, hybrids, or long irons when necessary.  But when one is already in play, then they can "let loose" and take some gambles.  You're hamstrung with just one guy who can hit it far.

Honestly, I have not met many 6-8 (or even 5ers) who plonk it out there 280, straight or not. Must suck to be you. I think I was generous with 260+. Anyway, so let's say the team is 2 super studs and 2 steady eddies. That would be 20+ FIR drives over 280+ per each of the 2 big drivers. You better not have an off day.

+1. What are the chances of 4 players, 6-8 handicap not having a single off day, better yet 4 straight days of absolute A+ golf in no less than a US open? That's just to make sure that each shot has at least 1 of the 4 who will save that one.

Who says they have to have an A+ game for four days?  They wouldn't even need an A+ game for one day.  My A+ game means I'm hitting a lot of fairways and greens and not losing ANY balls.  In this scramble, I only have to be good 25% of the time.  I could help this team play well in a scramble with the same game that I could shoot a 95 by myself.  I get to throw out my horrible drives and flubbed chips. :)

[rkim291968]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkim291968

If I were to pick a team, I will pick a long drive specialist, accurate drive specialist (in case long drive goes into water), short game wiz, and a putting expert.   This team can make the cut and possibly do even better.

I'd go with 4 guys like me and Matt. :)  The "long drive specialists" can also be the "accurate drive specialists" with their 3 woods, hybrids, or long irons when necessary.  But when one is already in play, then they can "let loose" and take some gambles.  You're hamstrung with just one guy who can hit it far.

You are 0.1 handicap point away from being dropped from the team.   Better start sandbagging ...

[No Mulligans]

I only have to be good 25% of the time.

If each of you had a 25% chance of a good shot, 31.6% of the time none of you would hit a good shot.

Computation - 75% chance of a bad shot, 4 players hitting the shot: .75 * .75 * .75 * .75 = 31.6% chance of all hitting a bad shot. Over 72 strokes that would happen 22 times.

If it was 50/50 the chance of all hitting a bad shot is 6.25%.  Over 72 strokes that would happen 4.5 times.

[Golfingdad]

If each of you had a 25% chance of a good shot, 31.6% of the time none of you would hit a good shot.

Computation - 75% chance of a bad shot, 4 players hitting the shot: .75 * .75 * .75 * .75 = 31.6% chance of all hitting a bad shot. Over 72 strokes that would happen 22 times.

If it was 50/50 the chance of all hitting a bad shot is 6.25%.  Over 72 strokes that would happen 4.5 times.

But we don't have a 25% chance of hitting a good shot ... we're 6 handicappers.  I simply said we only need to hit a good shot 25% of the time.  There's a huge difference in those two statements.

[GolfLug]

I'd go with 4 guys like me and Matt. :)  The "long drive specialists" can also be the "accurate drive specialists" with their 3 woods, hybrids, or long irons when necessary.  But when one is already in play, then they can "let loose" and take some gambles.  You're hamstrung with just one guy who can hit it far.

Who says they have to have an A+ game for four days?  They wouldn't even need an A+ game for one day.  My A+ game means I'm hitting a lot of fairways and greens and not losing ANY balls.  In this scramble, I only have to be good 25% of the time.  I could help this team play well in a scramble with the same game that I could shoot a 95 by myself.  I get to throw out my horrible drives and flubbed chips. :)

Bold 1: So there is a sub condition then? All four have to long drivers who can hit long straight 3 woods on command. Anyway, not mentioned.

Bold 2: You speak of a game that I know not.

This is where I say proof necessary. How do we find a US open setup and throw couple of @Golfingdad each and prove this paper tigering to be a fact.

[No Mulligans]

But we don't have a 25% chance of hitting a good shot ... we're 6 handicappers.  I simply said we only need to hit a good shot 25% of the time.  There's a huge difference in those two statements.

Just responding to what you wrote which was " I only have to be good 25% of the time."  Based on that my analysis was correct.

You all would have to be good more than 25% of the time.  I think you would be based on the HI.  That's why I included the 50% analysis.  At that rate you'd score really well.  And, I think you would be better than a 50% rate with a 6 HI

[Golfingdad]

Bold 1: So there is a sub condition then? All four have to long drivers who can hit long straight 3 woods on command. Anyway, not mentioned.

It wasn't an intentional sub condition.  When I read the question, I thought "well, I'm a 6" and based my opinion on that.  Since then I've acknowledged that different types of 6 handicaps would perhaps feel differently.  Example: @David in FL thinks "we'd" only just make the cut.

This is where I say proof necessary. How do we find a US open setup and throw couple of @Golfingdads and @saevel25s each and prove this paper tigering to be a fact.

That's the beauty of this hypothetical though, right?  We can both talk out of our behinds if we want and it can't be proven otherwise.  Here watch ...

I would like to change my vote.  I don't think we'd just win .... I think we'd win by about 20 strokes, and Amanda Dufner will ask to take us all out to a celebratory dinner.

(It would sure be fun to try though)

Just responding to what you wrote which was "I only have to be good 25% of the time."  Based on that my analysis was correct.

Your analysis is based 4 golfers who are only just CAPABLE of being good 25% of the time.

It is a fact that after this is over (in our hypothetical) at least one of the players has had

[GolfLug]

It wasn't an intentional sub condition.  When I read the question, I thought "well, I'm a 6" and based my opinion on that.  Since then I've acknowledged that different types of 6 handicaps would perhaps feel differently.  Example:  @David in FL thinks "we'd" only just make the cut.

That's the beauty of this hypothetical though, right?  We can both talk out of our behinds if we want and it can't be proven otherwise.  Here watch ...

I would like to change my vote.  I don't think we'd just win .... I think we'd win by about 20 strokes, and Amanda Dufner will ask to take us all out to a celebratory dinner.

(It would sure be fun to try though)

Lol!!

Bold 1: You be stretching real hard now. Don't break the rubber band.

Bold 2: You go boy! I am sure you would like to meet her in private first to discuss the 'pecifecifics'. Let me know if you need a..ahem.. a...a wingman?

[Gunther]

Keep in mind that we'd get a couple practice rounds. And I'm not long but on this course I'd run a couple out there around 300. Can I be on your team GD and Saevel?

[Golfingdad]

Keep in mind that we'd get a couple practice rounds. And I'm not long but on this course I'd run a couple out there around 300. Can I be on your team GD and Saevel?

You're in! Now let's find a fourth and then somebody get Mike Davis on the line to set this up. ;)

[Abu3baid]

You're in! Now let's find a fourth and then somebody get Mike Davis on the line to set this up. ;)

Finally something I would like to do.. Wait... Does that mean I have to get a handicap? And then get it down into the single digits? And then have you guys actually like me first? Ok maybe not

[Jeremie Boop]

Finally something I would like to do..

Wait... Does that mean I have to get a handicap? And then get it down into the single digits? And then have you guys actually like me first?

Ok maybe not

KICK THE FLIP!!

In the bag:
 Z355

 XR16 3 Wood
 Aeroburner 19* 3 hybrid
 I e1 irons 4-PW
 SM5 50, 60
 Harmonized Sole Grind 56 and Windy City Putter

[rkim291968]

I would like to change my vote.  I don't think we'd just win .... I think we'd win by about 20 strokes, and Amanda Dufner will ask to take us all out to a celebratory dinner.

Amanda would never!   You don't have enough dough.

You guys hold on to your thoughts until I get my HI down to 8.

[mvmac]

I think the biggest challenge will be putting on the large, undulating greens that are stimped at US Open speeds.

It wouldn't take you that long to get used to it, especially if you got in a few practice rounds. Also you have four chances at it so you shouldn't have any 3 putts.

[saevel25]

I was just reading a bit through "Every Shot Counts" and Brodie has a scenario similar to this one.

6500 yard course, PGA Tour pro plays "Two Worst-Ball", while a 90-golfer plays "Two Best-ball".

PGA Tour player would average a 78 for "Worst-Ball"

90-golfer would average 78 for "Best-Ball"

He has an 80-Golfer who plays "Best-Ball" would shoot a 70.

An 8 handicap, gets to play a scramble by himself on a 6500 yard course that Broadie describes as difficult (tight fairways) and tough green complexes and he would shoot on average a 70.

So you are taking 6-8 handicap golfers at 7200 yards, playing a four man scramble. I'm thinking they would do pretty good.