Donald Trump for president?

[nevets88]

Quote

Parties are vehicles for structuring information. Their role is literally to help voters decide by helping them choose who to trust. The fact that Republican voters seem to prefer candidates who their party is screaming not to trust reveals a profound failure in the GOP's core role. The Republican Party is broken.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/24/11103704/the-republican-party-is-broken

Quote

Just as sabermetrics led to a change in how umpires called the game, political science led to a change in how party elites intervened in the campaign. Because the smart people said he had no chance, they presumed that they did not have to do anything. And now it’s too late.

Let me be very clear at this point: This is just a theory and I have almost no data to support it. This is an untested hypothesis. Like most of my analysis of the 2016 election cycle, it’s probably, mostly wrong.

But I wonder: Just how much of Trump’s rise came about because the people who could have stopped him read analyses asserting that he had no chance of winning? How much did political scientists refute their own hypotheses?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/02/23/my-very-peculiar-and-speculative-theory-of-why-the-gop-has-not-stopped-donald-trump/

[Dave2512]

Still the GOP seems in denial. They rolled out 16 people with ancient platforms the people on the street are ready to forget. Everyone but Trump is running the same campaign Obama curb stomped, twice. 

The only objection anyone can come up with is his big mouth. Which is at times offensive but apparently not more so than the proposition of dwelling on stagnant GOP social issues. It's not 1986 anymore. 

[newtogolf]

28 minutes ago, nevets88 said:

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/24/11103704/the-republican-party-is-broken

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/02/23/my-very-peculiar-and-speculative-theory-of-why-the-gop-has-not-stopped-donald-trump/

Those were good reads and probably are partially right, but I believe the main reason Trump is winning is because people are angry and tired of voting for "politicians" who make campaign promises they have no intention of keeping once they get elected.  Look back at all the promises Obama made and didn't keep and GW before him.  

Boehner was a disaster and newly appointed Ryan approving that ridiculous fiscal budget just made it obviously clear that politicians from both sides have their own agenda and don't represent the people that voted for them.  

IMO Trump is winning because he's not a politician and he's calling out all the politicians for their lies.    

[Braivo]

8 hours ago, Gunther said:

Anyone questioning this now?  Seems traffic on this thread has slowed considerably since Trump started running the table.  Kinda fun.  (Trump not my guy but I'll be voting for him in the General.)

Let's go ahead and make America great again, shall we?

That's the spirit!

It'll take a while for some people to come around, but when they see the choices they have in November it won't be difficult to vote Trump. 

[Dave2512]

 

8 minutes ago, Braivo said:

That's the spirit!

It'll take a while for some people to come around, but when they see the choices they have in November it won't be difficult to vote Trump. 

Sure but only for the 40% or so that won't vote Clinton. 

[RandallT]

After digesting all that's gone on this week, I'll continue to say that this nomination is Trump's to lose. 

Any other candidate on the Republican side seems to be a victim of the news cycle, whatever that day's issue might be. Trump, on the other hand, is the new cycle. He sets the agenda- the alpha male on the scene.

Personally, I love how Trump is sticking it to the Republican Party and to the intellectuals who write about ideology. For all the ink spilled for the conservative cause, it has gotten them very little as their candidates have crumbled to the big government deficit juggernaut once they took power back in the House and Senate. For all the talk of obstructionism, I don't think the people who elected the anti-Obama House and Senate think they obstructed the big government agenda enough. Many of us are concluding it's past time for a shakeup.

For this cycle, it might not be about any purity and consistency of how you approach problems (God knows Trump is all over the place ideologically). Perhaps it's about standing up to the prevailing culture (media/academia/hollywood/establishment politicians/etc), which is entirely too politically correct and smug in its position of power. 

Trump's sheer attitude is powerful, and he might be making enemies of the right, but I suspect he'll draw in a lot of independents and even quite a few folks from the left, perhaps surprisingly from minorities. I spoke to a guy at a tire shop the other day who LOVED Trump- he was someone who would typically be considered squarely in the Obama Democrat demographic. We chatted with CNN playing in the background, as we awaited our repairs. He shocked me, frankly. We agreed that the media was a joke, but we differed on nearly all else politically. Anecdotal, but it's something. He thought Clinton was bore, and he liked Trump's style.

I also disagree with the general wisdom that Clinton will dismantle Trump in the general election. On the contrary, I think Trump just might throw her off balance. She's going to need to stay nimble and think on her feet, and not sure she can do that effectively. Trump will challenge her in ways she has never been challenged directly. Clinton typically does interviews for friendly reporters, she shies away from press conferences where they ask pointed questions, and she likes to use surrogates to fight for her, rather than take someone on directly. 

Trump is the opposite. He speaks off the cuff, which is very appealing. He goes head to head with opponents, drawing them out because they'll look weak if they don't respond. He answers questions candidly and needs no advisors to hone in on any effective messages, unlike any politician I've ever seen. 

Trump is exactly the kind of person to penetrate Clinton's bubble- far more so than any other candidate.

He may not look great to the media, or to the sophisticated political commentators, or to academia, or to Hollywood loudmouths... but people might just respond well to his boldness (even, heaven forbid, minorities). He might make Clinton look small, as he has the rest of the Republican field.

Clinton is such an awful candidate, and there'd be no hiding from the Trump tornado. People would try to cover for her, but I think deep down, the electorate would be hard pressed to see much positive in Clinton after Trump lands some punches. Trump has a way to make things stick on an opponent. Scott Adams (of Gilbert fame) has an interesting take here about Trump's techniques. But a landslide??

To argue for a  Trump landslide, you could say that, so far, Trump has driven record turnout in every caucus/primary, some states well over 50% higher turnout, I believe. The Democrats are actually down from 2008, because Obama was such a force. That could be significant.  I don't see Clinton being able to rally people, although Democrats might be more motivated by an Anti-Trump sentiment. We will see. Crazy times.

 

 

[Dave2512]

47 minutes ago, RandallT said:

After digesting all that's gone on this week, I'll continue to say that this nomination is Trump's to lose. 

Any other candidate on the Republican side seems to be a victim of the news cycle, whatever that day's issue might be. Trump, on the other hand, is the new cycle. He sets the agenda- the alpha male on the scene.

Agree but the republican candidates are victims of the media by their own hand due to regurgitation of stale issues. DT certainly could lay an egg with just one really offensive remark but he seems to toe both political and moral lines with expertise.

But I disagree that Trump is Clinton's kryptonite. My opinions have shifted a bit in the last few weeks as well. I'm starting to realize people that are lifetime democrat voters don't sweat Trump. There is a familiarity that appeals to them but not so much a bunch will change sides, a vote for Clinton isn't wasted in a Trump/Clinton GE because it's sort of a win-win situation for them. It's Fox News, their disciples and the status quo conservative candidates they support that are shitting their Don't Tread On Me undies over Trump.  

 

[ppine]

Welcome to the White Nationalist Party.

He has never been home room president.

[k-troop]

I agree that Trump's nomination seems inevitable at this point.

I don't believe that Trump can win a national election.  I won't believe that until someone shows me how he can win with less than 20% of latinos and women.  And 20% may be generous.  In my limited polling (i.e. all of the people I know) I don't know of a single woman that will vote for him, and all of the latinos I know really, really hate him.

[ppine]

We can not afford a Narcissist in the White House with an ego as big as Yellowstone NP.

He has not conflict resolution skills.  Being President is one big conflict.

[newtogolf]

2 minutes ago, k-troop said:

I agree that Trump's nomination seems inevitable at this point.

I don't believe that Trump can win a national election.  I won't believe that until someone shows me how he can win with less than 20% of latinos and women.  And 20% may be generous.  In my limited polling (i.e. all of the people I know) I don't know of a single woman that will vote for him, and all of the latinos I know really, really hate him.

If it comes down to Trump and Hillary I know a lot more women that would vote for Trump.  Most women I speak to love Bill, hate Hillary.  

1 minute ago, ppine said:

We can not afford a Narcissist in the White House with an ego as big as Yellowstone NP.

He has not conflict resolution skills.  Being President is one big conflict.

Sorry but Obama and GW are narcissists, I'd say the last non-narcissist that lived in the White House was Jimmy Carter.   

[Dave2512]

7 minutes ago, ppine said:

We can not afford a Narcissist in the White House with an ego as big as Yellowstone NP.

They are all egomaniac narcissists.  

The X factor with Trump is he seems to bring out voters nobody accounted for. They might cancel out some of the minority votes lost.

[Braivo]

11 minutes ago, k-troop said:

I agree that Trump's nomination seems inevitable at this point.

I don't believe that Trump can win a national election.  I won't believe that until someone shows me how he can win with less than 20% of latinos and women.  And 20% may be generous.  In my limited polling (i.e. all of the people I know) I don't know of a single woman that will vote for him, and all of the latinos I know really, really hate him.

Last night he took 44% of the Latino vote in NV. Many legal immigrants support his immigration policies because they did things the right way. 

As for women, a lot of them will simply stay home this cycle. They don't like Hillary, and when Trump softens his message for the GE they won't be motivated to vote against him. 

6 minutes ago, ppine said:

We can not afford a Narcissist in the White House with an ego as big as Yellowstone NP.

He has not conflict resolution skills.  Being President is one big conflict.

Trump can negotiate a deal better than any politician out there. The guy has made a living negotiating deals, he knows how to get things done. 

3 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

They are all egomaniac narcissists.  

The X factor with Trump is he seems to bringing out voters nobody accounted for. They might cancel out some of the minority votes lost.

Many of the Bernie supporters will switch to Trump. They are anti-establishment voters and Hillary has no appeal to them. With Bernie running near 50% in most polls that is a lot of Dems. When they see that Hillary and the establishment has screwed Bernie out of the nom they will be more than happy to vote against her. 

Trump wins it all in a landslide, he is going to take states that haven't gone red in decades. 

1 hour ago, RandallT said:

After digesting all that's gone on this week, I'll continue to say that this nomination is Trump's to lose. 

Great post! Right on. He is a fast learner and highly intelligent, he never makes the same mistake twice. He learned a lot from the Iowa loss and now he is rolling. It'll become a victory lap after Super Tuesday. 

[k-troop]

1 minute ago, Braivo said:

Last night he took 44% of the Latino vote in NV. Many legal immigrants support his immigration policies because they did things the right way.

44% of latinos who voted in a Republican primary.  Latinos who vote in Republican primaries don't exactly represent the core of the demographic.

[Dave2512]

2 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Last night he took 44% of the Latino vote in NV.

To be clear reports are it's 44% of 8% Latino voters so that's what 2500 votes in a state with a population of 2.7 million.

[Lihu]

5 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Last night he took 44% of the Latino vote in NV. Many legal immigrants support his immigration policies because they did things the right way.

Most. There are numerous reasons why many legal immigrants take a hard stance against illegal immigration.

However, I am not going to say that illegal immigrants are all criminals for anything other than being here illegally. Just because they broke our immigration laws does not mean they are criminals in any other manner. Desperation is a very strong reason for it.

Preventing illegal immigration is not going to be solved building a bigger wall, but by helping improve the economies of the countries where the immigrants are coming from. Eliminating corrupt governments is a good starting point. We can start with ours. . .

[pumaAttack]

Question:

Are you guys "Pumped" that Donald is going to be the nominee or is he simply the best of the GOP candidates.

 

[Golfingdad]

39 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

They are all egomaniac narcissists.  

I can't imagine that you could get very far in politics these days without having a boatload of confidence in yourself and your beliefs.