Rule 27-2b ... Definition of "Likely?"

[Golfingdad]

Every time I play in a tournament, something interesting comes up in the rules department and this past Sunday was no exception.  Here's the quick scenario of what actually happened: (followed by my hypothetical question at the end if you'd rather skip ahead)

I hook my drive into an area I can't see and believe that it's likely lost, so I tee up a provisional which finishes safely in the fairway.  After cresting the hill, we find that the area is heavy, splotchy rough on a fairly steep side slope, but not bushes as I feared, so all hope is not lost.  However, after searching for several minutes, it is not found, so I finish out the hole and move on.  After teeing off on the next hole and while driving to the green, we find my original ball from the previous hole sitting in the cart path - well beyond the green and 500 yards from the tee.  It seems that, most likely, the ball careened back into the cart path off the side slope and just let gravity take it down the path until it started to go back uphill.  Here's a diagram of the hole:

Let's assume for this hypothetical that I only searched for a minute or two before proceeding with my provisional, such that we discovered my original before 5 minutes had elapsed.  Decision 27-2b/3 allows you to play a provisional a second time if it's short of where the original is likely to be.  Now, Decision 27-2b/4 pretty much answers my hypothetical question before it's even asked; here is the full text:

Quote

27-2b/4

 

Provisional Ball Played from Beyond Where Original Ball Likely to Be But Not Beyond Where Original Ball Found

Q.A player, believing his tee shot might be lost or in a road defined as out of bounds, played a provisional ball. He searched for his original ball but did not find it. He went forward and played his provisional ball. Then he went farther forward and found his original ball in bounds. The original ball must have bounced down the road and then come back into bounds, because it was found much farther from the tee than anticipated. Was the original ball still the ball in play?

A.No. The player played a stroke with the provisional ball from a point nearer the hole than the place where the original ball was likely to be. When he did so, the provisional ball became the ball in play and the original ball was lost (Rule 27-2b).

The place where the original ball in fact lay was irrelevant

Pretty cut and dried and seemingly tailored to my scenario, so case closed, right?  To me, though, this is where it gets a little grey.  At first glance, it's (obviously) not likely that the ball would be up near the green, but once we realize that it is, and then backtrack through the path it took, it actually is quite a bit more likely.  The side slope it hit into would feed balls back towards the fairway, and the cart path has curbs running down both sides of much of it.  It's very easy at this point to visualize how it bounded down the cart path and then let gravity take it to this point.

So my question is basically ... how do you define what is likely?

Where my scenario differs from the Decision is that it's quite a bit clearer after its found how it got there.  In their case, they just say it "must have bounced down the road" with, seemingly, no evidence besides the ball location to determine how it got there.  If I was being more diligent, I could have noticed the cart path and the curbs and thought to myself that if it ended up on the cart path, it would likely be up by the green.  Follow-up question:  Would my just having those thoughts CHANGE the definition in this scenario?

[Lihu]

So. . ., what you are saying is you hit a 500 yard drive?

After searching for several minutes (beyond 5 I think?), the ball was lost and the provisional in play, I suppose?

[Rulesman]

'likely' relates to the situation when you were looking for it (or deciding not to look but walking by). It is not about anything you may discover later on. 

[GolfLug]

Well, I would think 'likely' is what you deemed at the time with information that you best perceived you had at the time. I would think once you deem it lost to best of your judgment it is over.

I am assuming if the door is left open, you could have folks looking for the ball even after they put provisional in play otherwise.

BTW, I got stung on 8th hole of the singles final at Newport with the EXACT same situation. Still stings... 

[DaveP043]

Based on the way you've drawn it, the "likely" location includes an area that extends closer to the hole than the provisional's location.  This is common, I don't think a ball's "likely location" is ever a single definite spot, but is rather a general area.  In this case, then, I'd say that you hadn't played your second shot with d the provisional from a spot closer to the hole than the likely location of the original.  If you do indeed find the original within 5 minutes of the time when you first started looking, I'd consider it to be in play.  

I agree with @Rulesman, the question relates to the area where you thought to look.  Since that area, as you've shown on the drawing, is relatively large AND extends closer to the hole than the provisional's location, my opinion is that you haven't given up on your original by playing a second with the provisional.

[Rulesman]

I didn't mention the real situation but would agree that the provisional was not beyond the likely area.

[Fourputt]

Because of the impossibility of determining a potential location any more closely than a reasonable estimate, that is all that the term "likely" is referring to.  Knowing your swing and how the shot felt when you hit it, you look where you would expect to find the ball.  You certainly didn't expect to find it 500 yards from the tee or that's where you would have been looking.

If it was "likely" that your original ball would hit the cart path and follow it for that far, then I'd say that you have to prove it to me by playing 10 shots there and having more than 50% of them run down the path.  If fewer than 50% made that journey, then it would be an unlikely scenario, so your original procedure stands.  

That previous statement was slightly tongue in cheek, since no matter what the situation, having a ball run for more than 200 yards down a cart path is always an extremely unlikely possibility.   20 or 30 yards, even 50 yards isn't that uncommon, but what you are describing is well beyond a reasonable likelihood.

[saevel25]

1 minute ago, Fourputt said:

Because of the impossibility of determining a potential location any more closely than a reasonable estimate, that is all that the term "likely" is referring to.  Knowing your swing and how well the shot felt, you look where you would expect to find the ball.  You certainly didn't expect to find it 500 yards from the tee or that's where you would have been looking..

So then would it be a wise decision to not hit the provisional as far as you think would be most likely? Then that way if play your provisional you are not playing it from a closer position. Then if you happen upon your ball 200 yards further down you could still play it? 

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

So. . ., what you are saying is you hit a 500 yard drive?

This was the only reason I included my actual scenario in the diagram for the hypothetical.  A little bit of veiled "bragging." 

 

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

After searching for several minutes (beyond 5 I think?), the ball was lost and the provisional in play, I suppose?

Yes, that's what actually happened - but my question only related to my hypothetical, where the original was specifically found before 5 minutes had elapsed.

 

45 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Well, I would think 'likely' is what you deemed at the time with information that you best perceived you had at the time. I would think once you deem it lost to best of your judgment it is over.

I am assuming if the door is left open, you could have folks looking for the ball even after they put provisional in play otherwise.

BTW, I got stung on 8th hole of the singles final at Newport with the EXACT same situation. Still stings... 

Just a slight pedantic point ... As I understand it, there is no such thing as "deeming" or "declaring" a ball lost.  It is either found within 5 minutes or determined to be abandoned based on actual courses of action, none of which are just saying so.

 

7 minutes ago, Fourputt said:

Because of the impossibility of determining a potential location any more closely than a reasonable estimate, that is all that the term "likely" is referring to.  Knoing your swing and how well the shot felt, you look where you would expect to find the ball.  You certainly didn't expect to find it 500 yards from the tee or that's where you would have been looking.

If it was "likely" that your original ball would hit the cart path and follow it for that far, then I'd say that you have to prove it to me by playing 10 shots there and having more than 50% of them run down the path.  If fewer than 50% made that journey, then it would be an unlikely scenario, so your original procedure stands.  

That previous statement was slightly tongue in cheek, since no matter what the situation, having a ball run for more than 200 yards down a cart path is always an extremely unlikely possibility.   20 or 30 yards, even 50 yards isn't that uncommon, but what you are describing is well beyond a reasonable likelihood.

It may be tongue in cheek, but its a good way to think about it more clearly.  I'm finding it obvious to determine how the ball got there after I find it and then I'm trying to say how that falls under the definition of "likely," but it really doesn't, as you point out.  If it was likely, then I'd have considered it beforehand.

It basically all goes back to @Rulesman's original reply. 

---

What is frustrating, though, is thinking about my double bogey in the actual scenario, and what could have been on that hole IF there had been even one person that saw my ball bounding down the cart path.  I could have been playing my second shot from about 50 yards away instead of my 4th from 150.   Note to self: Hire a forecaddie. 

[Lihu]

19 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

This was the only reason I included my actual scenario in the diagram for the hypothetical.  A little bit of veiled "bragging." 

Yup, I knew it!

Verrrry thinly veiled. . .

Congratulations, and it counts.

 

[Big C]

That's a tough one. I think I mentioned to you that I had an identical experience on that hole (presumed lost ball found pin high 400 plus yards away) only a few weeks prior.

But..... Even with the clear knowledge that such an occurrence is possible, I think it would be a real stretch to call it "likely" that a pulled tee ball carried perfectly down the cart path. 

Obviously there are varying shades of grey within the term likely, but using it to play a second provisional shot just wouldn't feel right to me. I think you've gotta treat it as a lost ball every time in that specific instance.

[Golfingdad]

6 minutes ago, Big C said:

But..... Even with the clear knowledge that such an occurrence is possible, I think it would be a real stretch to call it "likely" that a pulled tee ball carried perfectly down the cart path.

I agree.  However ...

41 minutes ago, Fourputt said:

Because of the impossibility of determining a potential location any more closely than a reasonable estimate, that is all that the term "likely" is referring to.  Knowing your swing and how the shot felt when you hit it, you look where you would expect to find the ball.  You certainly didn't expect to find it 500 yards from the tee or that's where you would have been looking.

Still agree, but what if, even though I knew it wasn't technically "likely" I did this instead: (Note, I'm referencing the hypothetical where the ball ended up on the hole near the green, not the actual one where it actually ended up 70 yards past the end of it - I'd NEVER look down there)

I hurried through my search in 90 seconds or so, and said something aloud like "Ya know, if it came down off the hill onto the cart path it could have rolled all the way to the green down there," then play my second with the provisional, and then find the original "down there" inside of 5 minutes where I pondered it could be?  Because it was possible enough that it crossed my mind, does it now fit under the definition of likely?

(If I'm jumping the shark with my hypotheticals, feel free to smack me. ;)  I sometimes like the exercise) 

[Lihu]

15 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

I hurried through my search in 90 seconds or so, and said something aloud like "Ya know, if it came down off the hill onto the cart path it could have rolled all the way to the green down there," then play my second with the provisional, and then find the original "down there" inside of 5 minutes where I pondered it could be?  Because it was possible enough that it crossed my mind, does it now fit under the definition of likely?

(If I'm jumping the shark with my hypotheticals, feel free to smack me. ;)  I sometimes like the exercise) 

Is there also the possibility of an outside agent?

For example, if someone picked up your ball then later discovered it was still in play, and threw the ball down 200 yards further than you hit it? Or if a bird picked it up? Both of these things happened to me or one of my playing partners. The second one was funny because I hit a wet ball, but found it on the fairway along with 3 other balls where a bunch of birds thought they were their eggs or something and plopped them on the fairway along the bank of a pond.

In any case, a 500 yard drive would be pretty impressive and probably puts you at the top of this list.

[natureboy]

I guess you know how to play this hole next time...."I'll just put this one up by the green." 

[Golfingdad]

39 minutes ago, Lihu said:

Is there also the possibility of an outside agent?

For example, if someone picked up your ball then later discovered it was still in play, and threw the ball down 200 yards further than you hit it? Or if a bird picked it up? Both of these things happened to me or one of my playing partners. The second one was funny because I hit a wet ball, but found it on the fairway along with 3 other balls where a bunch of birds thought they were their eggs or something and plopped them on the fairway along the bank of a pond.

Possibly, sure, but not very likely.  There was nobody around where I hit it - the holes at this course are completely isolated from the rest of the course and the group in front of us was already at the green.  And everybody is in the same tournament, so there isn't likely to be an oblivious hacker just picking up balls randomly like you see sometimes on munis.

It's worth noting, by the way, that since you brought up the outside agency option, it only applies to this rule under the qualification of "known or virtually certain."  The possibility that it hitched a ride around the course in somebody's cart or pocket isn't enough to help us.

 

Quote

c. Ball Not Found Within Five Minutes

If a ball is lost as a result of not being found or identified as his by the player within five minutes after the player's side or his or their caddies have begun to search for it, the player must play a ball, under penalty of one stroke, as nearly as possible at the spot from which the original ball was last played (see Rule 20-5).

Exception: If it is known or virtually certain that the original ball, that has not been found, has been moved by an outside agency (Rule 18-1), is in an obstruction (Rule 24-3), is in an abnormal ground condition(Rule 25-1) or is in a water hazard (Rule 26-1), the player may proceed under the applicable Rule.

(27-1c)

[Fourputt]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

So then would it be a wise decision to not hit the provisional as far as you think would be most likely? Then that way if play your provisional you are not playing it from a closer position. Then if you happen upon your ball 200 yards further down you could still play it? 

That could only be pertinent if you subsequently find the ball within 5 minutes of beginning to search (and you have taken no other action to change the status of the original ball as the ball in play), which if you search for 2 minutes, take another minute to play your provisional ball from somewhere short of that point, then a couple of minutes to walk farther forward, with the likelihood of having to also wait for your companions to play somewhere in that sequence, the odds are strongly against stumbling across your original ball before the 5 minute period has elapsed.  To plan such a process ahead of time would almost take some odd foreknowledge of the ultimate outcome.  The odds of the OP situation happening are astronomical.  You'd be better off just buying a lottery ticket.

2 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

This was the only reason I included my actual scenario in the diagram for the hypothetical.  A little bit of veiled "bragging." 

 

Yes, that's what actually happened - but my question only related to my hypothetical, where the original was specifically found before 5 minutes had elapsed.

 

Just a slight pedantic point ... As I understand it, there is no such thing as "deeming" or "declaring" a ball lost.  It is either found within 5 minutes or determined to be abandoned based on actual courses of action, none of which are just saying so.

 

It may be tongue in cheek, but its a good way to think about it more clearly.  I'm finding it obvious to determine how the ball got there after I find it and then I'm trying to say how that falls under the definition of "likely," but it really doesn't, as you point out.  If it was likely, then I'd have considered it beforehand.

It basically all goes back to @Rulesman's original reply. 

---

What is frustrating, though, is thinking about my double bogey in the actual scenario, and what could have been on that hole IF there had been even one person that saw my ball bounding down the cart path.  I could have been playing my second shot from about 50 yards away instead of my 4th from 150.   Note to self: Hire a forecaddie. 

Knowing how the ball got there is irrelevant to following the procedure under the rules.  If you get to the top of the hill and change your mind as the likely location of the ball, then your search timer doesn't start until you reach the revised location.  However, as far as I know, once the clock starts ticking, it can only be paused during the time expended when playing a wrong ball. (Meaning that you search 2 minutes, find a ball and play it.  Farther up the hole, if you discover that it was a wrong ball, you can return to the spot and still have 3 more minutes to search, or if after playing the wrong ball you then stumble across your original ball, then you continue with that and add in the 2 penalty strokes for the wrong ball)  Otherwise the clock continues to count down until it reaches 5 minutes, or you change the status of the original ball by putting another ball in play under the rules.  

[rogolf]

"Likely to be" is where your drive would normally end up.  If your provisional was hit like the first tee shot, it is within the area where your original is likely to be.

[turtleback]

Where did you start looking for it?  That is certainly a very strong indicator of that likely spot - why would you start looking in a place the ball was not likely to be?  And once you start looking for it, the whole point is going to become moot since your 5 minutes will be up long before you get to the green area and find it. 

In order for the ball to "likely" be up near the green in your situation you would have to first ASSUME that the ball got on and stayed on the cart path.  That in and of itself is probably not likely, and since it is a prerequisite for the ball being up by the green I do not see how it possibly could be "likely" that the ball is up by the green.  The fact that you can retrace the ball's path does not, IMO, make that path "likely".  Likely means, to me, that if you had hit a bunch of similar hots where are the balls going to end up.  The fact that there was an outlier that hit the cart path and went 500 yards is a sufficiently rare occurrence, that in no way could it, in the absence of actual observation, be considered as where the ball was likely to be.

Seriously, if you hit 10 balls on the same line and traj, you REALLY think, even knowing the complete layout, that the balls are LIKELY to end up 500 yards away, by the green?  Are you going to aim over there, next time, on the theory that if you hit it there the ball is likely to be 500 yards away by the green?

IMO your situation is exactly the reason for the likely criteria.  It seems to me that the point of the rule is to prevent a player from playing his provisional while still looking for his ball.  It is more of a statute of limitations kind of thing, so there is reasonable closure on what the ball in play is.  

So no, I am not buying it at all.