What do you define as a chance at birdie?

[Club Rat]

6 hours ago, Abu3baid said:

this has nothing to do with being positive, but realistic.

The Op states define as having a chance. "What do you define as a chance at birdie?

Is realistic the question or the possibility of a chance of making a birdie in the many manners which a player has an opportunity?

I like to think positive which makes the game more fun.

Realistically, holing out from the fairway or chipping in or holing out a bunker shot, does not happen often, but when it does, it gives a player great instant gratification. Fun factor - Whoop eee.

But, putting is a totally different story for many players. When really long putts are made, two things happened.

A. The player has the skill to roll the putt at the target with the proper speed for "if" the ball should hit the hole, it may drop.

B. Sometimes it's just pure luck.

As @Golfingdad states, but I've seen many longer putts made and made my share over the years.

4 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

inside of 30 feet is a legitimate birdie CHANCE

 

[No Mulligans]

Given fast greens (it seems all the greens I play

are fast lately), from more than 20 feet 3 putts are more likely than a one putt. I have to be 10 feet or closer to be thinking birdie. Outside that my mindset is make this par. 

[9wood]

I have noticed an impressive increase in the number of chip shots from off the green that I now hole. In other words, it's not all that surprising to birdie a hole without being on the green

Edited January 17, 2016 by 9wood

[JBailey]

I voted 20 feet because that's the distance I'm trying to make the putt.  30 feet and I'm lagging.  Although sometimes those go in also but not because I was planning on it.

Later,

John

[Ernest Jones]

I'm an optimist, so I voted any GIR. I also tend to play the cheaper courses that typically don't have giant greens.  

[Lihu]

59 minutes ago, rkim291968 said:

Where is the option for < 5 feet?   That's what I call a realistic birdie shot.  

Yeah, but in another thread someone said he'd miss those too. . .and I might. . .

 

To all others, yeah the definition of chance and probably was not very clear. I think I meant that if the stars aligned and your putting was super hot with a nice flat putting surface 30 feet would be a birdie chance?

Hard to say, but a GIR is not very meaningful if it leaves you with a long 100 foot lag putt, while not making the green but ending up 6 feet past the hole has a better chance?

[natureboy]

For me inside 8' because hey 25% is 25%. An even chance is 5' and in.

[Club Rat]

1 hour ago, 9wood said:

I have noticed an impressive increase in the number of chip shots from off the green that I now hole.

I'll bet they put a smile on your face.........

 

[Abu3baid]

I thought this is appropriate since we were talking about chances of making a birdie at different distances.

 

[9wood]

10 hours ago, Club Rat said:

I'll bet they put a smile on your face.........

 

Obama would say, "if you holed that chip shot someone else made that happen"

But on a serious note, yes they do put a big smile on my face

10 hours ago, Ernest Jones said:

I'm an optimist, so I voted any GIR. I also tend to play the cheaper courses that typically don't have giant greens.  

Cheaper can be better. Anybody can hit a giant green. It takes a better golfer to stick a small green. 

[David in FL]

18 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

I voted the same as you - inside of 30 feet is a legitimate birdie CHANCE.  (Note to Eyad and others , he asked about chance, not probability) ;)

Although it's not really about distances for me, but more rather based on how much of a "sure thing" a two putt is.  If I'm not really concerned with missing the next putt then I'm concentrating only on making the current one.  The average distance where that changes is probably around 25 feet on most greens. I rounded up. :P

I agree.  Although I'm not expecting a 25 foot putt to go in, I'm not necessarily surprised if it does.  I'll also add that the same distance and definition applies to chips, although more variables tend to come into play.

[EverythingGolf]

Inside 10 feet is going to be a realistic chance.

[mvmac]

I voted for 30 feet, that's a "realistic" range.

[imsys0042]

I put 30 feet or less.   While there are certainly putts shorter than that, that are very difficult to hole, 30 feet is a reasonable  distance to put it close to the hole and have it fall in if you put it on a good line with good speed.  I would say that there are chip shots that are good birdie opportunities as well, considering how the green runs and you know how to play it.   Some of those are easier than some putts you can have.

[iacas]

I was tempted to write 30, but I went with 20 in the end because I tried to balance the two definitions of "realistic." Likely? I'd have voted inside 10. Somewhat ppossible? Inside 30. So I went with inside 20.

[RH31]

Well, I putt them all like I'm trying to make it. Realistic? About 15 feet with 2 cups or less of break  and I expect to make it or miss the hole by no more than a ball.