Presidential Race 2016

[newtogolf]

There is a flawed though process on the extreme right that believes not voting for Trump will work out better for them than voting for him.  The belief is after 4 more years of Obama / Hillary policies, political correctness and SJW's the country will be a complete mess and ready for an extreme right solution.  

It's huge gamble as Hillary or Trump will likely have control over 2 or more Supreme Court Justice appointments which could set the direction of the country for the next 10+ years.   We already know Hillary is going to go after the 2nd Amendment and is only 1 or 2 votes away from making it happen.  

 

[RandallT]

Any love out there for Gary Johnson? I'm always attracted to the message, but the messenger is never someone who seems like would gain traction. Never a "serious" enough candidate with the charisma and influence to be viable. They always seem fringe, even though I think there's a lot that both sides would find appealing. A good compromise in these heated times.  For what it's worth, here's some info about him. I liked the 3rd video, interview with a former Daily Show guy, Dave Rubin. The first two are from 2012 election, I think, but still applicable.

 

 

 

[Gunther]

2 hours ago, RandallT said:

Any love out there for Gary Johnson? I'm always attracted to the message, but the messenger is never someone who seems like would gain traction. Never a "serious" enough candidate with the charisma and influence to be viable. They always seem fringe, even though I think there's a lot that both sides would find appealing. A good compromise in these heated times.  For what it's worth, here's some info about him. I liked the 3rd video, interview with a former Daily Show guy, Dave Rubin. The first two are from 2012 election, I think, but still applicable.

 

 

 

You know the media, both cons. and lib, is going to push him this time since most of his votes will be pulled from Trump.  He polled at 11% earlier this month.  He scares me as I could see him doing what Perot did to Bush 41 in '92.  I generally like a libertarian platform but because he's not viable, I could never vote for him.

[Chilli Dipper]

3 hours ago, newtogolf said:

There is a flawed though process on the extreme right that believes not voting for Trump will work out better for them than voting for him.  The belief is after 4 more years of Obama / Hillary policies, political correctness and SJW's the country will be a complete mess and ready for an extreme right solution.  

It's huge gamble as Hillary or Trump will likely have control over 2 or more Supreme Court Justice appointments which could set the direction of the country for the next 10+ years.   We already know Hillary is going to go after the 2nd Amendment and is only 1 or 2 votes away from making it happen.  

 

I gotta be honest: I don't believe Trump is the horse you'd want to bet on if protecting the Second Amendment is among your primary concerns. Gun control legislation isn't getting through Congress in its dysfunctional state. A classroom of dead first-graders and two wannabe jihadis shooting up a Christmas party weren't enough to provoke Obama from taking executive action to take anyone's guns away, and I don't foresee much difference between him and Hillary in that regard.

Trump supported gun control before he ran for president; I don't think he cares about anyone's freedoms; and I think that he'd expand executive powers much further than even his two predecessors did. I support increased gun control, but I think Trump is capable of cracking down on firearms beyond what I believe to be prudent if he decides it's politically expedient.

[Elmer]

49 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

I gotta be honest: I don't believe Trump is the horse you'd want to bet on if protecting the Second Amendment is among your primary concerns. Gun control legislation isn't getting through Congress in its dysfunctional state. A classroom of dead first-graders and two wannabe jihadis shooting up a Christmas party weren't enough to provoke Obama from taking executive action to take anyone's guns away, and I don't foresee much difference between him and Hillary in that regard.

Trump supported gun control before he ran for president; I don't think he cares about anyone's freedoms; and I think that he'd expand executive powers much further than even his two predecessors did. I support increased gun control, but I think Trump is capable of cracking down on firearms beyond what I believe to be prudent if he decides it's politically expedient.

I have to agree.
I can forsee Trump going executive order on something like this.
He does not care about your rights. He cares about his image and making America the "United State of Trump"

[StevenR84]

18 minutes ago, Elmer said:

I have to agree.
I can forsee Trump going executive order on something like this.
He does not care about your rights. He cares about his image and making America the "United State of Trump"

You know who doesn't want to take away your guns? Bernie Sanders

You know who isn't out of his race yet, despite what MSM will tell you? Bernie Sanders

[Braivo]

14 hours ago, RandallT said:

I've been thinking about this. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Trump moves left now for the general election. He might calculate he doesn't need the Republican Party anymore. He might think he's already burned bridges on the right, but there's more discontent on the left and middle.  So.... move left into Clinton territory to make her totally off balance. 

By doing this, he maybe picks up Bernie supporters, independents- maybe more voters lie there than he can regain from the Republican elite or conservative right. I think Trump correctly calculated that the Republican Party basically lost sight of the working class anger while they comforted themselves in their echo chamber. The establishment has no massive army of supporters behind them, although they do control a lot of media. Thus far, they haven't inflicted much damage on Trump, so no reason to think they will in the future.

Here are two articles that got me thinking this (exit poll on Sanders supporter say 44% willing to support Trump AND Trump going against Republicans on taxes has thrown Clinton off balance):

1. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/over-four-in-10-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote-for-trump/

2. https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/campaigns-elections/trump-paralyzed-hilarys-campaign/

 

Might be crazy, but Trump can detach himself from all that "inside the Beltway" stuff, and call his own shots. Move to the left on various issues- and keep Clinton totally guessing and paralyzed as to how to attack him. 

By doing this, Trump looks nimble, independent, strong. He thinks for himself and bucks the status quo, stands up to powers that control Washington, which people like. 

Clinton, meanwhile is the ultimate consensus candidate. Everything poll-tested, approved in committee- and she comes off that way clearly. Her image is set in stone. She's in agreement with the DC elite, most media, most academia. She can't be as nimble, since she prides herself on consistency and balks at being told she has changed her mind on anything (see gay marriage). She'll be unable to adapt to Trump's craziness and unpredictability, and she might look old school establishment in comparison. This election is likely not about being part of the establishment, so Trump wins.

Crazy? Perhaps.

 

Yes, well said. Trump will move left, as far left as he can without losing the GOP base, which is pretty far since they really, really don't want HRC.

Most of this country sits left of center, this is a very smart move on his part. If he alienates some of the GOP it will come at a much larger gain in independents and moderate Dems. 

HRC already has no idea how to campaign against Trump, not to mention she cannot finish off a 74 year old socialist. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0Y21TN

Quote

 

Donald Trump's support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party's presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up their minds ahead of the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. As recently as last week, Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll.

In the most recent survey, 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent not decided on either yet, according to the online poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday. The poll had a credibility interval of about 3 percentage points.

 

I repeat, he will win this election running away. 

[saevel25]

22 minutes ago, Braivo said:

If he alienates some of the GOP it will come at a much larger gain in independents and moderate Dems.

How? What issues appeal to the independent voters?

I can easily see his personality turning people off. Maybe besides Obama for the Democrats we have had 4 elections where its choosing the lesser of two crappy candidates. This election is no different. I can see people just saying, "Screw it, I'm just not voting".

Trump has a 60% unfavorable rating with independents.

Hillary has a 61%  unfavorable rating

 

Basically they are viewed IDENTICALLY by Independents.

You also fail to take into consideration a third or fourth party candidate. With out any sort of media attention Gary Johnson is already getting 4%!!

I am not saying Trump does not have shot at winning. He has a shot. The odds of him running away with it are astronomically low.

[Braivo]

13 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I am not saying Trump does not have shot at winning. He has a shot. The odds of him running away with it are astronomically low.

Same as the early odds of him ever being the GOP nominee. 

[Gunther]

Trump will win the Independent vote but that's not really key as Romney won it the last time around.  Turning Dems to his side is key and if the exit polls in WV are any indication, he's already doing well on this front.  

Something like 30% of Dem voters there said they'd vote Trump over Hillary.  Granted, WVA is a little bit of anomaly since Hillary told the miners specifically that she was going to put them out of work.  They are very cross with her.  But, I anticipate more gaffes from her in key states like OH and PA as she tries to mollify her left wing climate alarmist constituency.  Just hope Trump can capitalize on this and really get across to these folks the damage she would cause them if she got in.  

This bathroom thing is also becoming more of a dead item for the left as well because it's just so absurd, people of all stripes are beginning to weigh in on it and do not like the idea of dudes sharing bathrooms and locker rooms with their daughters.  Again, another great item for Trump to latch onto and use to his advantage.

[saevel25]

24 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Same as the early odds of him ever being the GOP nominee.

The GOP primary voters are not equivalent to the independent voters.  He's hardly getting any of the same dismissive rhetoric as at the beginning of the GOP Primary. It's not even close to being the same.

8 minutes ago, Gunther said:

This bathroom thing is also becoming more of a dead item for the left as well because it's just so absurd, people of all stripes are beginning to weigh in on it and do not like the idea of dudes sharing bathrooms and locker rooms with their daughters.  Again, another great item for Trump to latch onto and use to his advantage.

That isn't true.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/05/09/Poll-Americans-oppose-transgender-bathroom-laws-like-North-Carolinas/6571462799834/

Overall, 57 percent oppose laws, like the one passed in March in North Carolina, and 38 percent support them. Of those polled, 39 percent were strongly opposed to bathroom laws like North Carolina's and 25 percent strongly favor them.

The poll finds Republicans evenly split, with 48 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed. Among Democrats, 32 percent favor these laws and 62 percent are opposed.

8 minutes ago, Gunther said:

Something like 30% of Dem voters there said they'd vote Trump over Hillary.  Granted, WVA is a little bit of anomaly since Hillary told the miners specifically that she was going to put them out of work.  They are very cross with her.  But, I anticipate more gaffes from her in key states like OH and PA as she tries to mollify her left wing climate alarmist constituency.  Just hope Trump can capitalize on this and really get across to these folks the damage she would cause them if she got in.

Guess what, 31% of GOP voters in Ohio, a much more important state, said they would not vote for Trump if he was the candidate for president. These two candidates are not liked. Not even fully by their own party.

That isn't to say that view will change when people step into that voting booth. If you are going to throw around that 30% of Dems will not vote for Hillary. Realize Trump is getting the same talk.

It also doesn't help that Gary Johnson is polling at 4%. In another poll he's polled at 11%. Those are votes he's taking away from Trump.

[Braivo]

27 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

The GOP primary voters are not equivalent to the independent voters.  He's hardly getting any of the same dismissive rhetoric as at the beginning of the GOP Primary. It's not even close to being the same.

That isn't true.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/05/09/Poll-Americans-oppose-transgender-bathroom-laws-like-North-Carolinas/6571462799834/

Overall, 57 percent oppose laws, like the one passed in March in North Carolina, and 38 percent support them. Of those polled, 39 percent were strongly opposed to bathroom laws like North Carolina's and 25 percent strongly favor them.

The poll finds Republicans evenly split, with 48 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed. Among Democrats, 32 percent favor these laws and 62 percent are opposed.

Guess what, 31% of GOP voters in Ohio, a much more important state, said they would not vote for Trump if he was the candidate for president. These two candidates are not liked. Not even fully by their own party.

That isn't to say that view will change when people step into that voting booth. If you are going to throw around that 30% of Dems will not vote for Hillary. Realize Trump is getting the same talk.

It also doesn't help that Gary Johnson is polling at 4%. In another poll he's polled at 11%. Those are votes he's taking away from Trump.

You are forgetting this main point, Trump has not even begun to sell himself to the American people at large. Take a few minutes and read through Scott Adams' articles on persuasion. He characterizes Trump as the Master Persuader and he has been right this entire time, first calling Trump our next POTUS on August 2, 2015. 

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list

He has carefully planted "objections" to his candidacy, such as his seeming negative view of women and minorities. As with any great salesman, as he gets close to the final sale he will remove those final objections and close the deal. He did this with GOP voters by delivering an incredible foreign policy speech just days before Indiana that sealed the deal for him. He can easily make himself more favorable to women by talking about his executive team that is more than 50% women, or have his successful daughter, Ivanka, speak more openly about him. 

He has the cards to play, and he knows when to play them. He continues to line up endorsements from prominent individuals, and at just the right time he will get them from major women and minority figures, completely invalidating any of those arguments against him. 

[Chilli Dipper]

10 minutes ago, Braivo said:

You are forgetting this main point, Trump has not even begun to sell himself to the American people at large. Take a few minutes and read through Scott Adams' articles on persuasion. He characterizes Trump as the Master Persuader and he has been right this entire time, first calling Trump our next POTUS on August 2, 2015. 

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list

He has carefully planted "objections" to his candidacy, such as his seeming negative view of women and minorities. As with any great salesman, as he gets close to the final sale he will remove those final objections and close the deal. He did this with GOP voters by delivering an incredible foreign policy speech just days before Indiana that sealed the deal for him. He can easily make himself more favorable to women by talking about his executive team that is more than 50% women, or have his successful daughter, Ivanka, speak more openly about him. 

He has the cards to play, and he knows when to play them. He continues to line up endorsements from prominent individuals, and at just the right time he will get them from major women and minority figures, completely invalidating any of those arguments against him. 

He'll need to be on his best behavior for the next six months to have a chance of pulling it off. Those are points he'll have to make again and again and again, and if he's ever caught saying nasty things toward any of the groups he's trying to win over, all progress is lost. I don't think he has the discipline to stay on-message that long.

[Golfingdad]

I see all of this conversation going back and forth about his strategy and his "pivot" and his "move left" to court this group or that group.  His media savvy, his salesmanship, his endorsements that he's lining up, etc, etc, and I find it all interesting, and I can certainly see the points.

What I don't see, and consequently don't understand, is the talk about what he stands for.  His character.  Who is he as a person?  Does that kind of stuff not matter to anybody who is considering voting for him?  Does it not bother you that he is seemingly more willing than anybody before him to say whatever he thinks he should say to get elected?  (I'm not saying he does that, but what I'm reading here makes it sure sound that way)

Flip-flopping on issues used to be a big no-no for candidates, but it sounds here like it's what many are expecting/hoping for from Trump.

I really, really don't get it.

[Braivo]

14 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

I see all of this conversation going back and forth about his strategy and his "pivot" and his "move left" to court this group or that group.  His media savvy, his salesmanship, his endorsements that he's lining up, etc, etc, and I find it all interesting, and I can certainly see the points.

What I don't see, and consequently don't understand, is the talk about what he stands for.  His character.  Who is he as a person?  Does that kind of stuff not matter to anybody who is considering voting for him?  Does it not bother you that he is seemingly more willing than anybody before him to say whatever he thinks he should say to get elected?  (I'm not saying he does that, but what I'm reading here makes it sure sound that way)

Flip-flopping on issues used to be a big no-no for candidates, but it sounds here like it's what many are expecting/hoping for from Trump.

I really, really don't get it.

I have read his books and studied his positions. I support him because I truly believe he cares about America. His quality character is confirmed by the thousands of happy, loyal employees. It is also supported by his charity work that he does quietly as he does not seek attention for his efforts. There are dozens of confirmed stories of him paying off waitresses mortgages as a tip, or giving someone $50,000 who stopped to help him when he had a flat tire, etc. 

I don't believe he is saying whatever it takes to get elected, I believe he has a pulse on the American people and what they want in a leader. He refines his position to match what Americans want, I see nothing wrong with that, as he will work for us, not the other way around. 

As for his positions, he has been consistent on immigration issues for years. That is the most important issue to me in this election, by far. He was told when he started his campaign to soften his message on this issue and he refused. I take his word that he will do everything in his power to secure our borders and put our nation's interest first. 

[newtogolf]

55 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

I see all of this conversation going back and forth about his strategy and his "pivot" and his "move left" to court this group or that group.  His media savvy, his salesmanship, his endorsements that he's lining up, etc, etc, and I find it all interesting, and I can certainly see the points.

What I don't see, and consequently don't understand, is the talk about what he stands for.  His character.  Who is he as a person?  Does that kind of stuff not matter to anybody who is considering voting for him?  Does it not bother you that he is seemingly more willing than anybody before him to say whatever he thinks he should say to get elected?  (I'm not saying he does that, but what I'm reading here makes it sure sound that way)

Flip-flopping on issues used to be a big no-no for candidates, but it sounds here like it's what many are expecting/hoping for from Trump.

I really, really don't get it.

Great questions, for many, it's more of a "Never Hillary" situation.  Trump might flip flop on certain issues but I know I don't agree with anything Hillary stands for and won't ever vote for her.  We are in a crappy situation where more so than ever we're going to be forced to choose between the lesser of two evils and for me that's Trump. 

[9wood]

Not having as yet been elected to office Trump of course has a view on things, but if he were to get elected he would fill his cabinet with advisors who would help him in his daily decisions. No President makes decisions without first consulting his cabinet members, and Trump would be no different. Nevertheless, I have no choice but to support Trump because Hillary is a habitual liar who in my opinion should not be trusted. 

[Golfingdad]

32 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

Great questions, for many, it's more of a "Never Hillary" situation.  Trump might flip flop on certain issues but I know I don't agree with anything Hillary stands for and won't ever vote for her.  We are in a crappy situation where more so than ever we're going to be forced to choose between the lesser of two evils and for me that's Trump. 

Totally fair and I completely get that.  I might very well end up in a position to do the exact same thing but in reverse - reluctantly vote for Hillary more as just a "not Trump" vote.  My questions were directed at those (like @Braivo and @RandallT) who seem genuinely excited and happy for Trump to be President.