This Short Par 4 - Lay Up or Drive It?

[billchao]

17 minutes ago, SavvySwede said:

Anybody look at the whole course on google maps? Easily the plainest design I've ever seen. Dead straight holes all close to the same width. 

And somehow I'd still manage to find the wrong fairway every other hole and shoot 18 over 

[jamo]

37 minutes ago, billchao said:

If you end up in the hazard, you're dropping 2, hitting 3. You can still get up and down from there for par.

It's practically an nGIR. 

[imsys0042]

Normal 4wood, teed a little high or hybrid for me.   I doubt I would not go for it, unless I was swinging really weak or off for the day.  

 

Can an you imagine if the ground is hard and fast what some people would hit as the layup?

[9wood]

12 hours ago, SavvySwede said:

Anybody look at the whole course on google maps? Easily the plainest design I've ever seen. Dead straight holes all close to the same width. 

Having played this course numerous times, I can say that your statement is correct. Concerning the 3rd hole which is the topic of this thread, it seems like a lot of people want to try a risky tee shot and then settle for a par when in fact the hole is an easy birdie with a layup in front of the water and a short pitch, or at worst a par. 

[Dave2512]

That's a layup hole for sure. No way I risk a penalty counting on a perfect shot from the tee. We have a 292 yd par 4 but it's uphill with no water I don't go for that one either. I hit a long iron and wedge on. Make more birdies on our short par 4's playing safe than any other holes.

BTW I heard there is a book that covers this.

[Abu3baid]

31 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

That's a layup hole for sure. No way I risk a penalty counting on a perfect shot from the tee. We have a 292 yd par 4 but it's uphill with no water I don't go for that one either. I hit a long iron and wedge on. Make more birdies on our short par 4's playing safe than any other holes.

BTW I heard there is a book that covers this.

But I'm pretty sure the book says hit driver to get as close as possible to the hole instead of a long iron.  Especially if the only trouble or issue you mention is it being up hill.

[Lihu]

Just now, Abu3baid said:

But I'm pretty sure the book says hit driver to get as close as possible to the hole instead of a long iron.  Especially if the only trouble or issue you mention is it being up hill.

I was going to say the same thing, farther is better if it fits your shot zone.

[Abu3baid]

Just now, Lihu said:

I was going to say the same thing, farther is better if it fits your shot zone.

I have a 330 par 4 straight hole on my course as well.. Driver all day :)

[Dave2512]

4 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

But I'm pretty sure the book says hit driver to get as close as possible to the hole instead of a long iron.  Especially if the only trouble or issue you mention is it being up hill.

There are bunkers 250 out and a split fairway with a scruffy area of longer grasses that cover a ridge of significant elevation gain before the closely mown area right of the green, right side has bunkers. I didn't provide details because a layup hole is a layup hole when the only option to get it there is hit a perfect shot and stick it on the green or over.

 

[Abu3baid]

7 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

There are bunkers 250 out and a split fairway with a scruffy area of longer grasses that cover a ridge of significant elevation gain before the closely mown area right of the green, right side has bunkers. I didn't provide details because a layup hole is a layup hole when the only option to get it there is hit a perfect shot and stick it on the green or over.

 

Maybe.. I'm still going for the bunkers though :)

[freshmanUTA]

That's a 5 wood for me and I'm fairly accurate with it. Easy par. Except I'd be playing it like a par 3. That's too short for a par 4. 

[Dave2512]

53 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

Maybe.. I'm still going for the bunkers though :)

The book covers that too, nobody is good at 50 yard bunker shots, good luck. Shots zones are variable depending on the golfer but IME the lesser skilled suffer more variation. I know from years of tracking stats and personal assessment my SZ with driver is many times more than a 5i. Not only directional but less likely to hit some WTF shot, my real world average with a 5i is 185 with all the ugly shit in there.

On a sub 300 yard par 4 my strategy is make no worse than par. Those are the holes I can bank on, same with par 5's. I only make birdies at 4% so not often maybe one a round and almost always because I played smart not because I conquered risk. To gamble with my score I have to know even my worst shot is safe and honestly at my skill level that is rare.

Knowing that I can hit a 5i 185 somewhat reliably means I have an approach in the 115ish range. Game Golf tells me from 100-125 I am < 15 yds 71%, 75-100 at 78% and 50-75 at 79% so not a huge difference. This is what I consider on the tee. No reason to take on trouble for minimal advantages.

[iacas]

4 hours ago, 9wood said:

Having played this course numerous times, I can say that your statement is correct. Concerning the 3rd hole which is the topic of this thread, it seems like a lot of people want to try a risky tee shot and then settle for a par when in fact the hole is an easy birdie with a layup in front of the water and a short pitch, or at worst a par. 

It's not as risky if you're good. It's al oat your max driver distance. I would hit a hybrid.

And I doubt you birdie as often as you think laying up.

[9wood]

1 minute ago, iacas said:

It's not as risky if you're good. It's al oat your max driver distance. I would hit a hybrid.

And I doubt you birdie as often as you think laying up.

Every now and then remind yourself that not everyone in this forum is able to play at your level. For many of us a layup is our best option. 

I know that I have birdied this hole about a third of the time I have played it with my layup shot and then a PW close to the pin. Then rest of the time I usually par it.

[Pretzel]

1 hour ago, Dave2512 said:

There are bunkers 250 out and a split fairway with a scruffy area of longer grasses that cover a ridge of significant elevation gain before the closely mown area right of the green, right side has bunkers. I didn't provide details because a layup hole is a layup hole when the only option to get it there is hit a perfect shot and stick it on the green or over.

Which hole/course is this? I might have already played it, but I don't remember it explicitly from what you've described.

[Cpt Morgan]

5w high cut off the tee

[9wood]

49 minutes ago, freshmanUTA said:

That's a 5 wood for me and I'm fairly accurate with it. Easy par. Except I'd be playing it like a par 3. That's too short for a par 4. 

Yet the water in front of the green is a ball magnet

2 minutes ago, Pretzel said:

Which hole/course is this?

Oakwood in Amherst NY

[Pretzel]

3 minutes ago, 9wood said:

I know that I have birdied this hole about a third of the time I have played it with my layup shot and then a PW close to the pin. Then rest of the time I usually par it.

I hate to be that guy, but it's very doubtful that a 20 handicapper will hit a PW close to the pin to make birdie a full third of the time. I'm a +1 according to my recent GG stuff (was 1.0 last fall, but my GHIN number lapsed) and I still don't make birdie even close to 1/3 of the time (I make birdie maybe 1 out of 10 tries, if not more, with a PW) when I hit an approach shot with my PW. 

5 minutes ago, 9wood said:

Every now and then remind yourself that not everyone in this forum is able to play at your level. For many of us a layup is our best option. 

He recognized that. He said that if it's at your max driver distance to carry the lake, it's in your best interest to layup.

The truth of the matter is, that water isn't a huge penalty if you go for the green and land in the drink. If you hit it in the drink, you're dropping and just trying to pitch and putt for par on what I don't imagine is a terrible undulating green. If you miss the green on your second shot, you're doing the same thing anyways. The difference is the potential to score an easy birdie (2 putts if you hit the green, or pitch and putt if you're next to it) or an even easier par (3 putt if you hit the green, pitch and 2 putts from next to the green) if you don't land in the water. The water itself isn't all that large of a risk if you're aiming for the right portion of the green and can easily clear the water with one of your clubs. Even if you flub it, though, we've shown that it isn't much of a detriment to your score since it's no different than if you missed the green on your second shot had you played to lay up.