Breaking your HC - how often?

[Hacker James]

I noticed this clip from Golf Digest which sort of explains the difficulty in substantial improvement.

• • • HANDICAPS

Q: How often should you beat your handicap?

A: Not often. In fact, you should average about three shots higher than your handicap.

For example, if you have a course handicap of 16, and the Course Rating is 71.2, you should average 90, not 87. The USGA Handicap System is based on 96 percent of the best 10 differentials (corrected for Course and Slope ratings) of your last 20 rounds. More than half of your scores should be within three strokes of three over your handicap (87 to 93 in this example). Most golfers beat their handicap (86 or better in this example) only 20 percent of the time and beat it by three strokes one out of every 20 rounds.

For a person with a course handicap of 16 to break 80 (beat his handicap by eight strokes), the odds are 1,138 to 1. To do it twice, it would take the average golfer more than 700 years. In other words, it ain't happening.

===============================================================================================================================

It sort of makes sense, except when first starting out, I can also see streaks of improvement as you reach your likely potential.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Hacker James

[dennyjones]

About right for me.   I have played better than my handicap on occasion and then again, played worse.   

[WUTiger]

Late in the season, I had some nine-hole scores that beat my HDCP, but the other nine always evened things out.

[Hacker James]

@dennyjones  Knowing this kind of helps me. Less anxiety about meeting expectations. Although I broke 80 twice last year, it does not appear that I should expect that now with current index of 19. It might be possible to score an individual round of  <80 but as stated above,difficult to maintain.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Hacker James

[Hacker James]

13 minutes ago, WUTiger said:

Late in the season, I had some nine-hole scores that beat my HDCP, but the other nine always evened things out.

Yes, I have had some lop sided rounds as well. Bad front nine, horrible backside and visa versa.

Another reason that I am against the practice of "knitting" scores where you take two consecutive nine hole scores played at different times and combining the scores for an 18 hole index.  I guess its legal,just doesn't seem "moral" to me.

[David in FL]

A quick look says that I've shot my index 4 times out of my last 20 rounds.  One of those times I beat it by 2 strokes.  So the 20% rule applies perfectly to me currently.  Feels about right long-term too....

[Missouri Swede]

20 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

Another reason that I am against the practice of "knitting" scores where you take two consecutive nine hole scores played at different times and combining the scores for an 18 hole index.  I guess its legal,just doesn't seem "moral" to me.

As I understand it, it's not just "legal," it's required that you report 9 hole scores (when at least 7 holes are played), and they are combined. 

http://www.usga.org/Handicapping/handicap-manual.html#!rule-14379, particularly 5-2c and -2d

[saevel25]

46 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

Yes, I have had some lop sided rounds as well. Bad front nine, horrible backside and visa versa.

Another reason that I am against the practice of "knitting" scores where you take two consecutive nine hole scores played at different times and combining the scores for an 18 hole index.  I guess its legal,just doesn't seem "moral" to me.

Why? 

Even if you only play 9 hole rounds you can still get an 18 hole handicap from it. The handicap system is good like that. The basis for the handicap system is to play by the rules of golf. So, you should be playing to try to get the ball into the hole in the least amount of strokes under the rules of golf. If that is the case it doesn't matter if you combine 9 hole rounds that are days apart. 

[Hacker James]

Just now, saevel25 said:

Why? 

Even if you only play 9 hole rounds you can still get an 18 hole handicap from it. The handicap system is good like that. The basis for the handicap system is to play by the rules of golf. So, you should be playing to try to get the ball into the hole in the least amount of strokes under the rules of golf. If that is the case it doesn't matter if you combine 9 hole rounds that are days apart. 

I  know.Just seems like pick and choose. Lets say you are on the range and having a particularly bad day so you delay your play until the next time when you may be in better form. Or the instance where you might walk off the course after seven holes.  I hear what you are saying, and I am aware of the rules. Just sort of a pet peeve. Also, I don't play many nine hole rounds so my opinion on the matter really does not weigh heavily.  I also rarely play an executive course. Perhaps I should however, might enjoy the game more.

[Yukari]

This seems right as majority of my rounds are above my HC by 3 or more shots.

I knew it was odd when some of the winners in a tournament had 6 under their handicap.  Those sandbaggers.

They should post this stat before the start of every club championships.  

[saevel25]

7 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

I  know.Just seems like pick and choose. Lets say you are on the range and having a particularly bad day so you delay your play until the next time when you may be in better form. 

There is no rule you have to go to the course if you are struggling at the range. 

8 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

 Or the instance where you might walk off the course after seven holes. 

I doubt this happens, but still legal. I believe if they finished the 7th hole they are required to post their round assuming they shoot their handicap on the holes 8 and 9. 

9 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

I don't play many nine hole rounds so my opinion on the matter really does not weigh heavily.  I also rarely play an executive course. Perhaps I should however, might enjoy the game more.

9 hole rounds a great for days when you don't have time or don't feel like playing 18. 

[Hacker James]

@saevel25  No disagreement or argument, just my sentiments. And of course, subject to change.

 

[allenc]

1 hour ago, Hacker James said:

I noticed this clip from Golf Digest which sort of explains the difficulty in substantial improvement.

• • • HANDICAPS

Q: How often should you beat your handicap?

A: Not often. In fact, you should average about three shots higher than your handicap.

For example, if you have a course handicap of 16, and the Course Rating is 71.2, you should average 90, not 87. The USGA Handicap System is based on 96 percent of the best 10 differentials (corrected for Course and Slope ratings) of your last 20 rounds. More than half of your scores should be within three strokes of three over your handicap (87 to 93 in this example). Most golfers beat their handicap (86 or better in this example) only 20 percent of the time and beat it by three strokes one out of every 20 rounds.

For a person with a course handicap of 16 to break 80 (beat his handicap by eight strokes), the odds are 1,138 to 1. To do it twice, it would take the average golfer more than 700 years. In other words, it ain't happening.

===============================================================================================================================

It sort of makes sense, except when first starting out, I can also see streaks of improvement as you reach your likely potential.

Taking this in another direction, the bolded leads me to believe you're interpreting the answer wrong.  The answer says nothing about how hard it it to improve, but the likelihood of shooting various scores assuming your handicap is correct and you haven't improved.

You could conceivably practice a lot and be 10 strokes better before you play your next round.  If that happens then your handicap temporarily does not reflect your skill and the analysis in your quote doesn't apply.

[Hacker James]

@allenc  could be. Not going to lose a lot of sleep over it. You have a valid point about reading things into it.

[JonMA1]

27 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

I  know.Just seems like pick and choose. Lets say you are on the range and having a particularly bad day so you delay your play until the next time when you may be in better form. Or the instance where you might walk off the course after seven holes.  I hear what you are saying, and I am aware of the rules. Just sort of a pet peeve. Also, I don't play many nine hole rounds so my opinion on the matter really does not weigh heavily.  I also rarely play an executive course. Perhaps I should however, might enjoy the game more.

I don't like the idea of picking and choosing. In my mind, the two rounds have to be sequential and predetermined. I'm not sure what the rules say, but that seems perfectly fine to me.

It's no different than a weather delay causing tournament players to resume their play on the next available day, right?

[allenc]

2 minutes ago, Hacker James said:

@allenc  could be. Not going to lose a lot of sleep over it. You have a valid point about reading things into it.

No need to lose any sleep at all, we're just talking about it.

I spent a couple adult years playing chess tournaments and the chess rating system is similar to the golf handicap system.  You can use it to calculate the odds of your beating another opponent of any particular rating.  But that's only works ok when it's been static awhile.  What both systems have in common is they only know what you've done up till this point.   But you might practice a lot and be improving.  You might fall out of practice.  Your biorhythms might start to sync up (I have no idea what that means).  Like the mutual fund disclaimer, past performance dose not guarantee future results.  Buts it's all there is to go on so that's what we use, however flawed.

[Hacker James]

oh I know. What I meant about losing sleep, was that I won't fret over my own improvement or lack thereof. The article just gives me more realistic expectation now.

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Hacker James

[p1n9183]

My handicap it`s OK. played 40 stroke rounds this year. 12 i broke my handicap : around 30%.
It`s higher than 20% because i started the year with 4 and then improve to my current 2.
Hope next year improve the same way and get to 0.