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Predict Tiger's 2018 Season


iacas
Note: This thread is 2003 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

Tiger Woods in 2018  

94 members have voted

  1. 1. How many events will Tiger win in 2018 (all events)?

    • 0
      29
    • 1
      26
    • 2
      26
    • 3-4
      11
    • 5+
      2
  2. 2. How many majors will Tiger win in 2018?

    • 0
      72
    • 1
      17
    • 2
      3
    • 3
      0
    • 4
      2


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On 12/20/2017 at 5:18 PM, nevets88 said:

Went with 1 win, no majors, hope I'm wrong on both counts.

Same

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This is interesting - I went with 3 wins and 1 major because I was being conservative. It's certainly possible that he could come out and win nothing at all. I just think that given how well he played in what was his first full tournament in a year, his improvement will be quite rapid. I expect him to come out all guns blazing in the early spring and would not be at all surprised to see him win 5 tournaments. The majors is the harder one to see. I know that the "young crowd" are not "afraid" of him, but I never really bought the Tiger effect thing.

When I read about people talking about the "Tiger effect" I get the feeling that the others just wilted because it was him. I think there was an element of truth to that, but I don't think they had much of a choice. I think when they go out and play well and he's there playing well and beating them, they don't "wilt" because it's Tiger. I think they know he's better than them and if they play their regular game plan they know they're going to lose. So they try to beat him. They aim at a few more flags that they shouldn't and their scores go up. So although they fell away, I think they would have lost even if they had played sensible. Possibly by less than they actually did. I don't think there is anything that immunizes DJ or Spieth or Thomas from that. I think if Tiger plays like he can play, they will all lose to him too. Just like Phil and Ernie and Vijay and others did back in the early 00s.

But I digress. He's had a monkey on his back about the majors ever since 2009 when Yang beat him. I don't know if he's over that or not. He was the best in the world in 2013 and didn't ever really look like he was going to win one of the big four. I hope he wins one this year. I think if he were to catch a hot putter at the Masters and play well and were to win that, I think the floodgates may open. I'm very much looking forwards to looking up the recipe for crow, because there will be a lot of bitter people out there who will be eating it.

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1 win no majors. Cant see him winning early on in the season as im sure he'll need to blow off the tournament cobwebs. As for a major? just cant see it happening, i know he's not exactly ancient (40 isnt he now?) but with all the younger players finding their feet its going to be hard. I hope he proves me wrong.

The tournament he does win may well be one of the less heavily contested ones. Its a shame he doesnt have European Tour membership, move to Monaco or Switzerland (save some cash on tax ;-)) and i reckon he would do pretty well over here.

Russ, from "sunny" Yorkshire = :-( 

In the bag: Driver: Ping G5 , Woods:Dunlop NZ9, 4 Hybrid: Tayormade Burner, 4-SW: Hippo Beast Bi-Metal , Wedges: Wilson 1200, Putter: Cleveland Smartsquare Blade, Ball: AD333

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Hey Russ,  interesting comment on Tiger saving money on his taxes.  I know you are unfamiliar with the US, but Florida where Tiger lives has no state income tax.  Perhaps you haven't heard that the US just passed tax reform and even big earners will get a little relief.  Why would he be interested in playing the little boys tour when the best pro tour in the world is here with the best facilities?  He will do fine here and he will shock the world with this come back.

Sounded to me like you were being obtuse Iacas and didn't want to answer the question.  I hardly think you really know Como at all.

Mike Rooker

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11 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Hey Russ,  interesting comment on Tiger saving money on his taxes.  I know you are unfamiliar with the US, but Florida where Tiger lives has no state income tax.  Perhaps you haven't heard that the US just passed tax reform and even big earners will get a little relief.  Why would he be interested in playing the little boys tour when the best pro tour in the world is here with the best facilities?  He will do fine here and he will shock the world with this come back.

I see you dont understand the British sense of humour. Its what we, and 99.9999% of the world call a joke ;-)

I get the idea from the posts you may have a bit of a "man crush" on ol' Tiger.

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Russ, from "sunny" Yorkshire = :-( 

In the bag: Driver: Ping G5 , Woods:Dunlop NZ9, 4 Hybrid: Tayormade Burner, 4-SW: Hippo Beast Bi-Metal , Wedges: Wilson 1200, Putter: Cleveland Smartsquare Blade, Ball: AD333

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28 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Sounded to me like you were being obtuse Iacas and didn't want to answer the question.  I hardly think you really know Como at all.

You're free to think what you want, however wrong you may be. Others here could even verify that, if I asked them to, but it's not really on topic.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
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1 hour ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Sounded to me like you were being obtuse Iacas and didn't want to answer the question.  I hardly think you really know Como at all.

Like @iacas said, he didn't want it to come off as name dropping.

The bolded part is incorrect. Unless you call dinners, text conversations, phone conversations, visits to the TWU lab "not really knowing Como" ;-)

Mike McLoughlin

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Well, looks like you hitched your wagon to the wrong horse.  Tiger cut him loose for some reason, right?  Another one of those computer geeks who apparently thinks stats are the only thing with golf instruction.  Give me Butch Harmon any day working with players on their game.

Mike Rooker

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3 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Well, looks like you hitched your wagon to the wrong horse.  Tiger cut him loose for some reason, right?  Another one of those computer geeks who apparently thinks stats are the only thing with golf instruction.  Give me Butch Harmon any day working with players on their game.

I don't know who you're talking about here, me or Chris, but in either case you're really, really far off-base. Particularly so if you're talking about Chris, which I think you are.

And there's been no "hitching."

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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I voted 2 and 0. I am being somewhat optimistic.

6 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Well, looks like you hitched your wagon to the wrong horse.  Tiger cut him loose for some reason, right?  Another one of those computer geeks who apparently thinks stats are the only thing with golf instruction.  Give me Butch Harmon any day working with players on their game.

Dude-What is your problem? Give me a break man.

"The expert golfer has maximum time to make minimal compensations. The poorer player has minimal time to make maximum compensations." - And no, I'm not Mac. Please do not PM me about it. I just think he is a crazy MFer and we could all use a little more crazy sometimes.

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12 hours ago, Ty_Webb said:

I know that the "young crowd" are not "afraid" of him, but I never really bought the Tiger effect thing.

I appreciate your well written perspective, but respectfully disagree.  In his prime, I believe Tiger's mental game - particularly when combined with his pure skill - intimidated the crap out of the field.  I would put forth that this intimidation factor resulted in more Top 10's and wins for him specifically, overall.  

While I would agree that intimidation in of itself only works if a person (or opponent, in this case) allows it to, there's strong data that lends itself to justifying my (and other's) claim.  There are many studies on the effect of intimidation in sports, but in particular there was a Berkeley study by Jennifer Brown in November 2007 which I think was the impetus for the phrase "The Tiger Effect".  In it she summarizes with the following points:

  • A superstar leads to reduced performance from other competitors in a tournament: On average, exempt PGA players' scores are 0.8 strokes higher in tournaments where Woods is in the field, relative to when he does not participate.
  • Higher scores are not due to the adoption of riskier strategies by competitors: Golfers' within-round score variance is not statistically significantly higher when Woods is in the field, relative to when he does not participate.
  • Superstars must be "super" to create adverse effects: The adverse superstar effect is large during Woods's streak periods and disappears during his slumps.

Hank Haney somewhat famously said, "Tiger won because he shot the lowest score, not because he intimidated his opponents.", and went on to say (I'm paraphrasing now) that it was the pressure of the game itself, or the pressure of being in contention on Sunday, that has a greater effect on a player's susceptibility to folding like a lawn chair.

I think Hank would like to believe this since he would like to take some credit, and certainly there is credit due - because let's face it, Tiger was (and is) an incredibly skilled player.  But to say that the field was not "afraid" of him (I call it "intimidation") and that this didn't directly benefit him would be selling Tiger's overall package far short.

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13 minutes ago, Eric C said:

A superstar leads to reduced performance from other competitors in a tournament: On average, exempt PGA players' scores are 0.8 strokes higher in tournaments where Woods is in the field, relative to when he does not participate.

Is that score adjusted?

Tiger didn't play the "easier scoring" events. And he played so few, too, that the higher scoring at the majors could almost single-handedly account for those types of scoring effects: everyone shoots higher scores at the U.S. Open, British Open, etc.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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I'll say 0-0

I'm not going to base that much on the smallest field invitational on tour, I'd like to see Tiger be competitive but as a friend of mine says "I'm gonna have to see it".

If you had to pick which player do you think would have a better year how far down the OWGR would you have to go before you'd pick Tiger?
Tiger or Phil, Tiger or ZJ ... or for Urkel Tiger or Aphibarnrat

It's been 10 years since Tiger won a major, the top 5 in the world were the following when that happened - I just don't see them being intimidated
#1 - 23
#2 - 14
#3 - 14
#4 - 13
#5 - 15
If Tiger could win a major (most likely the Masters) it would be like Jacks win in '86
 

Players play, tough players win!

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2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I just don't see them being intimidated

You don't have to intimidate people to win a major. You simply have to play better than they do.

Jordan Spieth didn't intimidate Matt Kuchar at the BO last year.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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Wow, lot's of opinions about the GOAT.  By the way Iacas, so what if Kuchar wasn't intimidated.  He still got blown away by Jordan coming down the stretch with the avalanche of birdies and the eagle.  All he could do was shake his head and say, too good.  That is what happens when a good player runs into a great player.

Hey Wally, you said if Tiger won the Masters, it would be like Nicklaus win.  Did you want Tiger to wait until age 46 to win? 

Mike Rooker

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