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Can someone short off the tee become #1 again?


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Short Hitters Becoming #1 OWGR  

43 members have voted

  1. 1. Can a short hitter (bottom third of PGA Tour Driving Distance stat) become #1 again?

    • Yes
      17
    • No
      26


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15 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

I never actually thought Luke was number 1 in the world even when he was according to the rankings. I think him being number 1 and even Westwood shows flaws in the ranking.

Why? He led both the PGA and Europian Tour in money. He had a hell of a year or two. 

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I think that you can, but it depends on how short. Less than 290, I'd say no. You're really putting yourself at a disadvantage.

Spieth is around 295, and I've long thought his lack of length was the biggest impediment to his long-term success. 

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31 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

Spieth is around 295, and I've long thought his lack of length was the biggest impediment to his long-term success. 

He's always been right around tour average or slightly above it, which is good enough to make up strokes due to other parts of his game. He's not really gaining strokes from his distance, but he's not losing any, either.

He's not Luke Donald short. When Luke Donald was #1 in the world, he was something like 150th in driving distance on tour. Luke lost strokes to the field due to his lack of distance, which speaks to how great the rest of his game was.

Jordan doesn't need to be that good to make up for his driving distance - he's not that short of a hitter. That stuff is overblown, IMO.

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11 minutes ago, billchao said:

He's always been right around tour average or slightly above it, which is good enough to make up strokes due to other parts of his game. He's not really gaining strokes from his distance, but he's not losing any, either.

He's not Luke Donald short. When Luke Donald was #1 in the world, he was something like 150th in driving distance on tour. Luke lost strokes to the field due to his lack of distance, which speaks to how great the rest of his game was.

Jordan doesn't need to be that good to make up for his driving distance - he's not that short of a hitter. That stuff is overblown, IMO.

I don't think it's overblown when talking about being the best golfer in the world. It also matters for his iron distance, because not only is he hitting from further back, he's also hitting with longer clubs. He's a great player so he overcomes those obstacles, but it does limit him as he gets older and less athletic. 

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17 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

I don't think it's overblown when talking about being the best golfer in the world. It also matters for his iron distance, because not only is he hitting from further back, he's also hitting with longer clubs. He's a great player so he overcomes those obstacles, but it does limit him as he gets older and less athletic. 

Spieth actually gained .27 strokes off the tee in 2017. 

Tee-to-Green he was second on tour gaining 1.55 strokes, .27 of those off the tee, .90 strokes gained on approach shots, and .37 gained around the green. 

So I dont think his perceived lack of distance is hurting him, nor is the hitting with longer irons.

Could he benefit from more distance? Sure. Every single player pro and amateur could benefit from more distance. But his current distance is not hurting him at all, his current distance is above average.

 

I see that the poll has been updated to state the bottom third of PGA tour driving distance stat. I voted no because the bottom third is roughly 287 yds or shorter average driving distance. Matt Kuchar is the only one in the bottom third of driving distance and is also in the top 20 in the world.

I dont think it will happen, especially as the distance continues to increase and the courses continue to get lengthened. 

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Just now, klineka said:

Spieth actually gained .27 strokes off the tee in 2017. 

Tee-to-Green he was second on tour gaining 1.55 strokes, .27 of those off the tee, .90 strokes gained on approach shots, and .37 gained around the green. 

So I dont think his perceived lack of distance is hurting him, nor is the hitting with longer irons.

Could he benefit from more distance? Sure. Every single player pro and amateur could benefit from more distance. But his current distance is not hurting him at all, his current distance is above average.

I'm not saying it's hurting him now, just that it could imperil him later on, when he gets shorter off the tee and with his irons. If he's, say 38, with nearly two decades of Tour wear and tear. Part of the reason Tiger can still compete is because he's hitting 180 mph ball speed in his early forties. I don't think Spieth will be able to do that. 

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10 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

I don't think it's overblown when talking about being the best golfer in the world. It also matters for his iron distance, because not only is he hitting from further back, he's also hitting with longer clubs. He's a great player so he overcomes those obstacles, but it does limit him as he gets older and less athletic. 

My point was that Jordan Spieth doesn't have to be as good as Luke Donald was in the other areas of the game to be #1. He's just not that short a hitter relative to his peers.

He's not a short hitter at all.

1 minute ago, jbishop15 said:

I'm not saying it's hurting him now, just that it could imperil him later on, when he gets shorter off the tee and with his irons. If he's, say 38, with nearly two decades of Tour wear and tear. Part of the reason Tiger can still compete is because he's hitting 180 mph ball speed in his early forties. I don't think Spieth will be able to do that. 

I don't expect Spieth to be a top 10 golfer in 14 years, but I'm predicting the talent coming up in the next decade to get better and better. In 14 years there might not be a golfer in the top 10 over the age of 35.

 

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8 minutes ago, billchao said:

My point was that Jordan Spieth doesn't have to be as good as Luke Donald was in the other areas of the game to be #1. He's just not that short a hitter relative to his peers.

He's not a short hitter at all.

I didn't get that from your initial post, and regardless, I think we might be arguing different things.

What I'm trying to say: 

- Spieth isn't a long hitter now, averaging the same clubhead speed as Phill Mickelson, who is 47

- Being average or only slightly above average makes it more difficult to win

- He's going to lose speed and distance as he gets older, leaving him further and further back

- These things shorten his window for success

I also freely admit he's a good driver of the golf ball. Reasonably accurate, slightly above average. He's good with his irons and with his putter (though not so much lately). It's just harder to win averaging only 300 yards off the tee (which is a crazy thing to think, but it's true).

Edited by jbishop15

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8 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

What I'm trying to say: 

- Spieth isn't a long hitter now

Since we are considering the bottom third of driving distance as short, Im going to consider the middle third as normal, and the top third as long. 

Spieth is in the top third, which makes him a longer hitter. 

5 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

- He's going to lose speed and distance as he gets older, leaving him further and further back

Spieth has increased his average clubhead speed from 111mph in 2016, to 113mph in 2017, to 114mph so far in 2018. I dont expect him to continue to increase every season indefinitely, however as long as he continues to increase the clubhead speed, the distance will most likely increase as well, which should keep him in the top third, if not actually increasing his place within the top third.

Phil's average clubhead speed has only dropped 5mph in the last 8 years combined, so if Spieth followed a similar path, he has quite a long time before he needs to worry about his clubhead decreasing, especially since its still on its way up.

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Just now, klineka said:

 

Since we are considering the bottom third of driving distance as short, Im going to consider the middle third as normal, and the top third as long. 

Spieth is in the top third, which makes him a longer hitter. 

Spieth has increased his average clubhead speed from 111mph in 2016, to 113mph in 2017, to 114mph so far in 2018. I dont expect him to continue to increase every season indefinitely, however as long as he continues to increase the clubhead speed, the distance will most likely increase as well, which should keep him in the top third, if not actually increasing his place within the top third.

Phil's average clubhead speed has only dropped 5mph in the last 8 years combined, so if Spieth followed a similar path, he has quite a long time before he needs to worry about his clubhead decreasing, especially since its still on its way up.

That's fair. i was more thinking of the top guys. 

This is what I'm saying, though: If Phil's clubhead speed dropped only 5 mph in the last eight years, then that means he was at one point at 119 mph. If Spieth drops that much, from right now, he'll be at 109 mph. 

He could get faster, and stronger. Totally agree. But I don't think he'll get the much faster, personally. I definitely could be wrong, though! 

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I have not looked up any actual data to support this so could be not much more than an opinion but I think Spieth's length and accuracy with his irons/woods/hybrids is underrated. Not saying he longer with the remaining clubs than other longer drivers but I feel he closes the gap more so than the longer hitters.   

I think Luke D is an interesting study. Never felt like he was ever the undisputed top dog but getting to no. 1 is not a flash in the pan like getting on a 3-4 tournament hot streak either. But yeah, no way he could have held on it any longer than he did. 

I am of the opinion like @jbishop15, you don't have to be the longest hitter but there is a threshold to sustaining the top spot for any significant length of time. It might be 295. 

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1 hour ago, jbishop15 said:

That's fair. i was more thinking of the top guys. 

This is what I'm saying, though: If Phil's clubhead speed dropped only 5 mph in the last eight years, then that means he was at one point at 119 mph. If Spieth drops that much, from right now, he'll be at 109 mph. 

He could get faster, and stronger. Totally agree. But I don't think he'll get the much faster, personally. I definitely could be wrong, though! 

Phil actually gained a lot of speed - at 47 - this last off season.

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29 minutes ago, iacas said:

Phil actually gained a lot of speed - at 47 - this last off season.

And he's still dealing with some form of arthritis, no?

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2 hours ago, jbishop15 said:

- Being average or only slightly above average makes it more difficult to win

I had a longer response drafted at one point but scrapped all of it. It basically boiled down to Spieth's lack of distance is talked about too much (even though he's not actually a short hitter) and his ballstriking ability - namely his approach shots - is not talked about enough. He led the tour in SG approaching the green in 2017, despite being 20 yards shorter than Dustin Johnson who led SG off the tee.

His supposed lack of distance did not stop him from winning 3 events last year and finishing 2nd on the money list. There are dozens of longer hitters who don't have his game.

2 hours ago, jbishop15 said:

- He's going to lose speed and distance as he gets older, leaving him further and further back

He's got at least 10 more years of golf ahead of him before we start seeing a decline in his speed and at his current pace, he needs less than half of that for a HoF career. 

2 hours ago, jbishop15 said:

- These things shorten his window for success

The argument could be made that his swing is less violent on his body and he won't be as prone to injury, so his window could be bigger.


All of the Spieth stuff is a bit OT. If He becomes #1 again, he doesnt qualify as a short hitter. You can't call him short simply because he hits it shorter than the longest hitters on tour. By that definition, most players on tour would be short hitters and that makes no sense at all.

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11 minutes ago, billchao said:

I had a longer response drafted at one point but scrapped all of it. It basically boiled down to Spieth's lack of distance is talked about too much (even though he's not actually a short hitter) and his ballstriking ability - namely his approach shots - is not talked about enough. He led the tour in SG approaching the green in 2017, despite being 20 yards shorter than Dustin Johnson who led SG off the tee.

Bear in mind, Bill, that strokes gained off the tee "reduce" the potential for strokes gained in approach shots. So DJ's off-the-tee game takes away or makes it harder for him to gain strokes on approach shots.

e.g. if he has 140 yards in, and Spieth has 160, and both players hit it to 22'4", Spieth may gain strokes with that shot and DJ could lose strokes (partial strokes, like 0.09 or whatever) because they hit from different distances: from 140, the PGA Tour average might be 21'5" and from 160 maybe it's 23'7".

(Those numbers are all made up. I could look them up, but it's probably not worth it; I think you'll get what I mean from that.)

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20 minutes ago, iacas said:

Bear in mind, Bill, that strokes gained off the tee "reduce" the potential for strokes gained in approach shots. So DJ's off-the-tee game takes away or makes it harder for him to gain strokes on approach shots.

e.g. if he has 140 yards in, and Spieth has 160, and both players hit it to 22'4", Spieth may gain strokes with that shot and DJ could lose strokes (partial strokes, like 0.09 or whatever) because they hit from different distances: from 140, the PGA Tour average might be 21'5" and from 160 maybe it's 23'7".

(Those numbers are all made up. I could look them up, but it's probably not worth it; I think you'll get what I mean from that.)

Yea I know what you mean. My point was, Spieth supposedly being a short hitter doesn't stop him from having one of the best long games on the planet.

Distance is an advantage, but winning and being #1 isn't solely about distance, which Jordan has an adequate amount of to begin with. He's not Jim Furyk or Luke Donald. They're in different tiers in terms of distance, which we have defined now.

Bill

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16 hours ago, billchao said:

I had a longer response drafted at one point but scrapped all of it. It basically boiled down to Spieth's lack of distance is talked about too much (even though he's not actually a short hitter) and his ballstriking ability - namely his approach shots - is not talked about enough. He led the tour in SG approaching the green in 2017, despite being 20 yards shorter than Dustin Johnson who led SG off the tee.

His supposed lack of distance did not stop him from winning 3 events last year and finishing 2nd on the money list. There are dozens of longer hitters who don't have his game.

He's got at least 10 more years of golf ahead of him before we start seeing a decline in his speed and at his current pace, he needs less than half of that for a HoF career. 

The argument could be made that his swing is less violent on his body and he won't be as prone to injury, so his window could be bigger.


All of the Spieth stuff is a bit OT. If He becomes #1 again, he doesnt qualify as a short hitter. You can't call him short simply because he hits it shorter than the longest hitters on tour. By that definition, most players on tour would be short hitters and that makes no sense at all.

All good points! He's an excellent player, for sure. I stand by my feelings on the topic, though. 

But, as you said, we might be drifting a bit off topic. Surprising no one, I voted no. 

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No. The advantage of hitting it farther and having shorter clubs into greens is too big.

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