Predict Tiger's 2019 Season

[nevets88]

252 days till the Masters. 

It'll be interesting if he wins how he does it. The old build up a massive lead and hold it? Or come from behind?

[iacas]

15 minutes ago, nevets88 said:

252 days till the Masters. 

241, man. Don't add 11 days that we won't have to wait.

And just think… in 2019, the wait between the last major and the first major will be EVEN LONGER. (We'll get The Players in March, but that's not a major of course.)

[nevets88]

3 minutes ago, iacas said:

241, man. Don't add 11 days that we won't have to wait.

And just think… in 2019, the wait between the last major and the first major will be EVEN LONGER. (We'll get The Players in March, but that's not a major of course.)

😂My mistake! Old tweet. It's gonna be electric!

[flopster]

I say 2-3 wins and 1 major either Augusta or US open.

[Groucho Valentine]

Well i thought (if he stayed healthy) he'd win this year, but that hasn't happened yet. Im not really super bullish on tiger, yet. But ill throw out 2 wins in 2019. 

[flopster]

Tiger has also moved up to #26 GWR I also think there's a 50% chance he retains the #1 ranking again. 

[Dr. Manhattan]

On 8/13/2018 at 10:58 AM, flopster said:

Tiger has also moved up to #26 GWR I also think there's a 50% chance he retains the #1 ranking again. 

 

He's currently #4 in points per start. Be interesting if he can keep that kind of pace going or perhaps even do better than that. Once he fills out closer to the minimum divisor of 40 events, I tend to think he will make it back into the Top 10 pretty soon. 

[Wally Fairway]

10 hours ago, Dr. Manhattan said:

 

He's currently #4 in points per start. Be interesting if he can keep that kind of pace going or perhaps even do better than that. Once he fills out closer to the minimum divisor of 40 events, I tend to think he will make it back into the Top 10 pretty soon. 

Part of his points per event being high is that most of his events are recent enough that they haven't started to be reduced by the (time) weighting factor. As I posted in the Ryder Cup thread, if you sort the OWGR by 2018 points gained, Tiger is #16 (and although I haven't researched it, I'd guess the highest points gained for a non-winner).
Just pointing out how OWGR maths works, Tiger has the lowest points lost in the top 100, and the 2nd fewest events played in the top 200 (Joaquin Niemann has 1 fewer event)
 

[Zeph]

2-3 tournaments and 1 major. If he stays healthy, I'll be surprised if he doesn't win anything at all.

[Zeph]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Part of his points per event being high is that most of his events are recent enough that they haven't started to be reduced by the (time) weighting factor. As I posted in the Ryder Cup thread, if you sort the OWGR by 2018 points gained, Tiger is #16 (and although I haven't researched it, I'd guess the highest points gained for a non-winner).
Just pointing out how OWGR maths works, Tiger has the lowest points lost in the top 100, and the 2nd fewest events played in the top 200 (Joaquin Niemann has 1 fewer event)

Correct. There are no players over Tiger in points gained this year without a win in 2018. And winning is pretty significant. A quick look at the tournaments Tiger's played in shows they get about twice the amount of points by winning compared to a second place.

What's hurting Tiger most is that he hasn't played much golf in the two-year rolling average before the 17-18 season started. Since the minimum divisor is 40, his points are still divided by 40, which only gives him a ranking of 3.897. For fun, let's say he played a 2017 season identical to what he's played in 2018 so far (which isn't done yet). In 2018 he's gained 171 points over 19 events, which is 9.02 on average. If he had played 2017 and earned the same amounts of points as in 2018, he would be in fourth on the OWGR, without a single win.

Another interesting stat is how many of the total points comes from before 2018. If you do some spreadsheet stuff, you find that out of Tiger's total 155.88 points, he gained 155.7 of them in 2018. DJ got 174 points from pre-2018 that is helping his total average. Koepka got 155 points. JT 213 points. Rose 192 points. The next ones behind Tiger on the list of the top 26 (on points made pre-2018) are Bubba (6.21) and Bryson (29.5), both of whom has had very good 2018 seasons and also lost very few points (65 and 46).

[The Recreational Golfer]

He'll get a lot of top ten finishes, but there are too many players now who can beat him. They will just take turns doing it.

[iacas]

On 8/15/2018 at 10:06 AM, Zeph said:

What's hurting Tiger most is that he hasn't played much golf in the two-year rolling average before the 17-18 season started. Since the minimum divisor is 40, his points are still divided by 40, which only gives him a ranking of 3.897. For fun, let's say he played a 2017 season identical to what he's played in 2018 so far (which isn't done yet). In 2018 he's gained 171 points over 19 events, which is 9.02 on average. If he had played 2017 and earned the same amounts of points as in 2018, he would be in fourth on the OWGR, without a single win.

No, he wouldn't, because those 2017 points would be worth between 1/2 and 1/4 or whatever of what they are now. Points lose value over time.

Dustin Johnson won the BMW Championship in 2017. He earned, at the time 70.0 points for the win. Right now they're weighted at 5.43%, for a point contribution of 3.8 points.

http://www.owgr.com/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=12422

That really, really puts Tiger's dominance at the top in perspective. He often had so many points that, even with depreciation, even playing < 40 events (he was often close, but typically had 38 or so events, IIRC), that he could have split his points into two people and been the #1 and #2 ranked golfers in the world all by himself.

You don't have to win to get to OWGR #1… but the bonus for winning is fairly large, and helps a lot, even when the points depreciate.

On 8/15/2018 at 10:06 AM, Zeph said:

Another interesting stat is how many of the total points comes from before 2018. If you do some spreadsheet stuff, you find that out of Tiger's total 155.88 points, he gained 155.7 of them in 2018. DJ got 174 points from pre-2018 that is helping his total average. Koepka got 155 points. JT 213 points. Rose 192 points. The next ones behind Tiger on the list of the top 26 (on points made pre-2018) are Bubba (6.21) and Bryson (29.5), both of whom has had very good 2018 seasons and also lost very few points (65 and 46).

Those 2017 points are highly depreciated right now.

[tristanhilton85]

I voted 2-3 wins and one major. He's playing so damn well right now and we're still not a year into the comeback. He'll get better.

With the majors, he obviously does well at Augusta, it's hard to bet against him at Pebble, and he's won at Bethpage Black as well. I'm not sure he gets more than one major just because of how deep the field is but one seems doable.

Also, I still think he has a win in him this year.

[Zeph]

59 minutes ago, iacas said:

No, he wouldn't, because those 2017 points would be worth between 1/2 and 1/4 or whatever of what they are now. Points lose value over time.

Dustin Johnson won the BMW Championship in 2017. He earned, at the time 70.0 points for the win. Right now they're weighted at 5.43%, for a point contribution of 3.8 points.

http://www.owgr.com/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=12422

That really, really puts Tiger's dominance at the top in perspective. He often had so many points that, even with depreciation, even playing < 40 events (he was often close, but typically had 38 or so events, IIRC), that he could have split his points into two people and been the #1 and #2 ranked golfers in the world all by himself.

You don't have to win to get to OWGR #1… but the bonus for winning is fairly large, and helps a lot, even when the points depreciate.

Those 2017 points are highly depreciated right now.

Ah, right. I thought those were weighted based on the field or something, but did't notice they got lower the older the tournament. They get weighted less then the longer it's been, until, as you pointed out, the 70 points are now worth 3.8. Thanks for the correction. 

My point still somewhat stands that most of the players in the top 30 has a significant amont of their points from pre-2018.

[iacas]

7 hours ago, Zeph said:

My point still somewhat stands that most of the players in the top 30 has a significant amont of their points from pre-2018.

Really?

Dustin Johnson has 267.24 points from 2018. From 2017… 185.1. From 2016… 8.25.

Maybe you define "significant" somewhat differently than I do. Those tournaments get divided by the number of tournaments played, too… Over 40, they divide by the number of rounds played. DJ has 460.59 points right now. Tiger has only 155.88 points.

[jimnm]

He will win at the Farmers! And I will be there to witness it! 😀

[Zeph]

6 hours ago, iacas said:

Really?

Dustin Johnson has 267.24 points from 2018. From 2017… 185.1. From 2016… 8.25.

Maybe you define "significant" somewhat differently than I do. Those tournaments get divided by the number of tournaments played, too… Over 40, they divide by the number of rounds played. DJ has 460.59 points right now. Tiger has only 155.88 points.

185 is 40% of his total points at the moment. He's got 44 events, which gives 460.59/44 = 10.4672. Most comes from 2018 since he's won three times obviously. Justin Rose got almost half his points from before 2018.

By significant I meant in comparison to Tiger, who's only got 18 events he could have gotten points on. His OWGR ranking will be closer to a realistic one once he's played close to 40 recordable events. Or stayed healthy long enough that he's been able to compete all the time in the two-year rolling average.

[iacas]

5 hours ago, Zeph said:

By significant I meant in comparison to Tiger, who's only got 18 events he could have gotten points on. His OWGR ranking will be closer to a realistic one once he's played close to 40 recordable events. Or stayed healthy long enough that he's been able to compete all the time in the two-year rolling average.

Of course as Tiger has almost no pre-2018 points.

But people need to stop acting like Tiger should be 4th or something. He’s earned less points than Dustin in 2018 (by a good bit), too. He’s got to play better in the future than he has to this point to be 4th as those 2018 points begin to decline.