LIV Golf Now Closed?

[iacas]

1 minute ago, 70sSanO said:

I’m not so sure the Saudis care that much about improving their reputation that they will just toss money around.

That's exactly what they're doing.

[iacas]

 

[Denny Bang Bang]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Very few people can really write their names in the history books in a significant way. Was Talor Gooch going to do much of that? No.

Yea, he’s not one of those guys.  He’s probably early 30s, and maybe a win or two on the PGA?  The LIV route makes sense for him.

Rahm, Rory, JT… guys like that can find their name high up in the books and be part of discussion for decades to come.  But then again DJ and Bryson made the jump, and I think they could have done the same.

 I’m not hating on anyone for making the jump.  But the aforementioned DJ and Bryson jumps, I don’t really get.  Doesn’t really matter if I get it or not though.

[iacas]

7 hours ago, Denny Bang Bang said:

 I’m not hating on anyone for making the jump.

I am. Screw those people.

[Friz]

8 hours ago, iacas said:

 

It's official.  Brooks Koepka to LIV.

 

Wonder if he's taking his brother's spot, or if he negotiated a package deal to keep Chase in the upcoming fields

[DaveP043]

7 minutes ago, Friz said:

It's official.  Brooks Koepka to LIV.

 

Wonder if he's taking his brother's spot, or if he negotiated a package deal to keep Chase in the upcoming fields

I haven't really kept track, but isn't this something like 5 or 6 relatively well-known players who have joined LIV since the London tournament?  Doesn't that mean that something like 6 players from the London tournament are out of work, with no place to earn a living?  Is the Hooters tour still in existence?

[iacas]

24 minutes ago, DaveP043 said:

I haven't really kept track, but isn't this something like 5 or 6 relatively well-known players who have joined LIV since the London tournament?  Doesn't that mean that something like 6 players from the London tournament are out of work, with no place to earn a living?  Is the Hooters tour still in existence?

They weren't PGA Tour players before, and they can play the Asian Tour, possibly the European Tour… etc.

[woodzie264]

Now Brooks 😏

Brooks Koepka becomes latest star golfer to leave PGA Tour for LIV Golf Series, sources confirm

---

Four-time major champion Brooks Koepka is the latest golfer to defect from the PGA...

Edit:  sorry, I posted this without seeing posts above already reporting this 

I wonder now that the US Open is behind us if the flood gates will open

[Zeph]

9 hours ago, 70sSanO said:

I’m not so sure the Saudis care that much about improving their reputation that they will just toss money around.

Money may not be the full motivation, but I do think they definitely want to be a major player in the mega billion dollar sports industry.

And I think they want control and not have adhere to any established rules, agreements, or answer to anyone; i.e. Premier League backlash.

But I could just as easily be wrong.

John

Reputation and having more influence in the world. LIV is clearly not financially viable at this point. They don’t just offer more money than the PGAT, they are giving players millions and prepared to give a billion to the right names. How long would they have to run the tour to make that kind of money back, based on ticket sales, merch, sponsors and broadcasting deals?

They are sitting on huge amounts of money and in those countries it mainly benefit the ones at the top. It’s not about the country or spreading the wealth. They are pumping money out of the ground and can throw huge amounts at the largest sports to gain reputation and influence.

Sports has gone from being about the teams or individuals to be about money. Look at football (soccer, for Americans). Huge amounts of money coming from oligarks, sheiks and princes. Teams can go from below average to winning championships because they suddenly can afford the best players in the world.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Zeph

[Hardspoon]

I was a little surprised when Brooks went, since he seems to thrive on the competition more than anything, but at this point there's enough competition over there that he'll probably be satisfied...I guess?

I'm not optimistic how this is all going to turn out.  It would be shame if the PGA Tour turned into just an audition, where you go to get famous before joining LIV.

[iacas]

3 minutes ago, Hardspoon said:

I was a little surprised when Brooks went, since he seems to thrive on the competition more than anything, but at this point there's enough competition over there that he'll probably be satisfied...I guess?

I wasn't. He's a douche, and he thinks he'll qualify to play in the majors forever, probably.

Might not even get to play the 2023 Masters, though.

[woodzie264]

2 minutes ago, Hardspoon said:

I'm not optimistic how this is all going to turn out.  It would be shame if the PGA Tour turned into just an audition, where you go to get famous before joining LIV.

Interesting - I hadn't considered anything like that, but for guys driven by money, rather than records/legacy, I could see that potential for the younger generations just now coming through

[Vinsk]

15 minutes ago, Hardspoon said:

I was a little surprised when Brooks went, since he seems to thrive on the competition more than anything, but at this point there's enough competition over there that he'll probably be satisfied...I guess?

I'm not optimistic how this is all going to turn out.  It would be shame if the PGA Tour turned into just an audition, where you go to get famous before joining LIV.

Why do you think he was so defensive and childish at the pre-round US OPEN press conference? He didn’t want to talk about LIV because  he knew damn well he was going there.

[PatrickMurtha]

A couple of thoughts / questions. (I am a fan but a non-golfer, so forgive any mis-statements on my part.) 

(1) Even if LIV events are ultimately awarded OWGR points, they wouldn’t get MANY points, right, based on strength of field? So the defectors are almost bound to drop steadily in the world rankings? 

(2) The one I really don’t get is James Piot. How is he going to become a big-name star golfer (with endorsements, magazine covers, etc) absent the prestige of PGA Tour wins / competitiveness? And this raises the larger question, can LIV create new stars? 

(3) Since the initial flurry of interest in LIV events will surely die down, are the Saudis actually interested in building a PRODUCT that will have marked appeal for fans / viewers? I’m not picking up that vibe. Viability in any sense seems secondary at best. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by PatrickMurtha

[Vinsk]

4 minutes ago, PatrickMurtha said:

A couple of thoughts / questions. (I am a fan but a non-golfer, so forgive any mis-statements on my part.) 

(1) Even if LIV events are ultimately awarded OWGR points, they wouldn’t get MANY points, right, based on strength of field? So the defectors are almost bound to drop steadily in the world rankings? 

(2) The one I really don’t get is James Piot. How is he going to become a big-name star golfer (with endorsements, magazine covers, etc) absent the prestige of PGA Tour wins / competitiveness? And this raises the larger question, can LIV create new stars? 

(3) Since the initial flurry of interest in LIV events will surely die down, are the Saudis actually interested in building a PRODUCT that will have marked appeal for fans / viewers? I’m not picking up that vibe. Viability in any sense seems secondary at best. 

I think normal business risks are simply not a big factor at this point for LIV. With that kind of financial backing they can pretty much just get the ball rolling and see how it goes. They have the luxury of just testing this out without concerns of losses.

[PatrickMurtha]

3 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I think normal business risks are simply not a big factor at this point for LIV. With that kind of financial backing they can pretty much just get the ball rolling and see how it goes. They have the luxury of just testing this out without concerns of losses.

The virtually unlimited money is definitely the wild card here. The record for rival leagues / circuits in other sports, going all the way back to baseball in the late 19th Century, is simply not good, and might have given some of the defectors pause if they thought about such things. But no such rival has ever been so well-funded. 

[Friz]

I've looked a little into what it would take for LIV to actually be profitable.  For comparison, the PGA Tour, who is self-sustaining, forecast this season's Revenue to be about $1.5 Billion.  This includes revenue from annual operation of the TPC Courses, so actual Tournament based revenue is around $1.25 billion.  About $775 million of that is Media Rights, another decent chunk coming from tickets and concession revenue at events.  While some events are obviously worth more than others, on average across 40+ events each season, the PGA Tour would make around $30 million in revenue per event based on these numbers.

Just comparing those things to LIV, lets say they can get a comparable Media Rights deal...what does comparable look like?  PGA Tour's money covers around 40 events, each spanning 4 days, and around 10 hours of golf per day.  LIV has far fewer events, that are only 3 days, and are less than 5 hours each day.  They simply aren't built to have anywhere near as lucrative a media deal.  Tickets - there are fewer events and fewer days per event to sell tickets for.  Concessions - fewer hours patrons are on site leads to fewer food and beverage purchases.  So many of the paths to possible revenue are simply dwarfed by the PGA Tour.  

Then looking at expenses, the obvious one is prize money.  LIV won't shut up about how much money they're giving away...$250 million over 8 events this season is $31.25 million on average per event (remember PGA Tour's revenue per event?).  The PGA Tour, between all tournament prize money, FedEx Cup money, player impact program, Comcast Top 10, Play15 initiative, etc. is giving away $838 million this season.  Across 40+ events that averages roughly $20 million per event.  I don't have solid numbers on the cost of holding each event, but the bulk of those costs go into setting up stands, tents, towers, scoreboards.  Things that would be a fixed cost whether its a 3 or 4 day event, so LIV isn't really getting a discount for the shorter hours and fewer days outside of staffing....which I believe largely consists of volunteers on the PGA Tour.  I'm estimating operational costs of each event would be pretty comparable between PGA Tour and LIV.  And finally, no real need to say it, but LIV is spending hundreds of millions, likely will surpass the billion threshold if it hasn't already, in player acquisitions.  They've started a precedent, so I don't really think these can entirely be considered start up costs or one time fees...every time a new player joins there is reasonable expectation they'll be receiving a decent sign on fee.  These costs will surely go down in the future, but unlikely to go away completely.

I know my math isn't perfect here and there is a fair amount of estimating, but it should give a ballpark idea of what LIV is up against to be profitable.  They're spending millions more per event than PGA Tour, plus the extreme costs of bringing new players on board, with fewer paths to even come close to matching the PGA Tour's revenue.  This is not a business that is thinking about being profitable, they're not thinking about startup costs and a road to profitability....they're just buying something.  I can't see any scenario where this would start turning profitable anywhere in the future

[PatrickMurtha]

8 minutes ago, Friz said:

I've looked a little into what it would take for LIV to actually be profitable.  For comparison, the PGA Tour, who is self-sustaining, forecast this season's Revenue to be about $1.5 Billion.  This includes revenue from annual operation of the TPC Courses, so actual Tournament based revenue is around $1.25 billion.  About $775 million of that is Media Rights, another decent chunk coming from tickets and concession revenue at events.  While some events are obviously worth more than others, on average across 40+ events each season, the PGA Tour would make around $30 million in revenue per event based on these numbers.

Just comparing those things to LIV, lets say they can get a comparable Media Rights deal...what does comparable look like?  PGA Tour's money covers around 40 events, each spanning 4 days, and around 10 hours of golf per day.  LIV has far fewer events, that are only 3 days, and are less than 5 hours each day.  They simply aren't built to have anywhere near as lucrative a media deal.  Tickets - there are fewer events and fewer days per event to sell tickets for.  Concessions - fewer hours patrons are on site leads to fewer food and beverage purchases.  So many of the paths to possible revenue are simply dwarfed by the PGA Tour.  

Then looking at expenses, the obvious one is prize money.  LIV won't shut up about how much money they're giving away...$250 million over 8 events this season is $31.25 million on average per event (remember PGA Tour's revenue per event?).  The PGA Tour, between all tournament prize money, FedEx Cup money, player impact program, Comcast Top 10, Play15 initiative, etc. is giving away $838 million this season.  Across 40+ events that averages roughly $20 million per event.  I don't have solid numbers on the cost of holding each event, but the bulk of those costs go into setting up stands, tents, towers, scoreboards.  Things that would be a fixed cost whether its a 3 or 4 day event, so LIV isn't really getting a discount for the shorter hours and fewer days outside of staffing....which I believe largely consists of volunteers on the PGA Tour.  I'm estimating operational costs of each event would be pretty comparable between PGA Tour and LIV.  And finally, no real need to say it, but LIV is spending hundreds of millions, likely will surpass the billion threshold if it hasn't already, in player acquisitions.  They've started a precedent, so I don't really think these can entirely be considered start up costs or one time fees...every time a new player joins there is reasonable expectation they'll be receiving a decent sign on fee.  These costs will surely go down in the future, but unlikely to go away completely.

I know my math isn't perfect here and there is a fair amount of estimating, but it should give a ballpark idea of what LIV is up against to be profitable.  They're spending millions more per event than PGA Tour, plus the extreme costs of bringing new players on board, with fewer paths to even come close to matching the PGA Tour's revenue.  This is not a business that is thinking about being profitable, they're not thinking about startup costs and a road to profitability....they're just buying something.  I can't see any scenario where this would start turning profitable anywhere in the future

That is very helpful, thanks! It certainly backs up my intuitions. I am sure that some players are jumping now because they figure, Get the sign-on money while the getting’s good, which a year or two from now it might not be. It’s like angling to produce a series for Netflix in 2018 as opposed to 2022.