Are you ready for some NFL Football? 2014 Edition.

[Golfingdad]

Wilson looks over there twice and Kearse gives him a little signal. Both defenders out there knew what was up before it happened.

That's really oversimplifying things.  OBs look over at all receivers and the defense and do hand signals all the time.  To suggest that because he looked over there and gave a signal that Butler knew FROM THAT that there were running a pick and a slant is a little bit presumptuous.

The mistake was worrying about running the clock. If the Seahawks had just gone to the line of scrimmage to run the second down play, NE could not have got their goal line defense into the game and all of their options would have had a better chance of success. They could have run it three times without a problem if they wanted, or they still could have thrown the ball on any down. They limited their options by dawdling. Hell, Butler wasn't even in the game until they ran in the goal line defense.

I agree with the math - certainly if they did this, they would have had ample time to run three plays no matter what they chose to do.  But if did do this, and they happened to score on the first play and then lost in overtime after the Patriots kicked a last second field goal to tie, I guarantee that Carroll would have been getting second-guessed for making the "bone-headed" decision to hurry up and score.  "He played right into Belicheck's hands."  "He wanted them to score there so he'd have more time."  "He probably let them score on purpose."

It's not hard to foresee that no matter how the game ended up, part of the narrative is going to be criticism of the losing coach, and I think that is a shame.  It takes away from everything else, especially the spectacular play by several players on both teams.

[dsc123]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

Wrong. You're over-simplifying.

They still had a timeout left, correct? The normal, knowledgeable football fan would say...ok, run it with Beast mode and if he doesn't get it in...call your timeout. Then look at the clock...how much time is left? Can you run again and still get another play off if you don't get it in? Yes? Run again. No? Start passing.

It's situational, and it's about timing. Throwing a quick slant with the formation the defense was in was ridiculous. I was dumbfounded as it was happening. If they'd have had Wilson roll out, and try to throw it to the outside...I would have understood the call. I wouldn't have agreed with it, but I would have understood. If it's incomplete, you can then run it and burn your TO if you don't get it in.

A quick slant into a ton of traffic from the 1 yard line? Ludicrous. Stupid.

+1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

See, and I think you're oversimplifying.  You're not saying a pass is a bad idea at the end there, just that you'd only do it a play or two later. You're not giving him credit for thinking a play ahead and guaranteeing (barring catastrophe ;)) 3 chances to punch it in, rather than risking only getting two .

I don't think this is what happened though.

First, he said after the game that he was just burning the play.  That he didn't like the match up and they needed to burn a play so he could get the right personnel on the field during the stoppage.  He wasn't trying to guarantee 3 plays--he was throwing one away.

Second, his goal was to keep Brady off the field.  He had 62 seconds on the clock and 1 time out left after the first down play, but didn't want to punch it in right away and give Brady all that time.  So he ran 35 seconds off the clock.  If he were simply trying to make sure that he could run 3 plays he wouldn't have done that.  Even if he wanted to pass, he could have done it with 60 seconds on the clock, then run the ball, and then had plenty of time to get lined up on 4th and short.

Third,  I might be wrong, but didn't they call a run play out of trips and then audible because they didn't like the matchup?  If that's the case that just further shows that he didn't call a pass play to manage the clock.

Here's what he said:

Quote:

"We went to three receivers; they sent in their goal-line people," Carroll said after the game. "We had plenty of downs and we had a timeout and really we just didn't want to run against their goal-line group."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/pete-carroll-seahawks-super-bowl-interception-2015-2#ixzz3Qzb906gU

He wasn't trying to maximize the number of plays he was running.

And here's the interveiw: http://www.mediaite.com/online/watch-seahawks-coach-try-to-explain-final-play-call/

He explains that he wanted to run the ball, didn't like the match up, and they figured they had plenty of time and would pound it in on 3rd or 4th down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by phan52

The mistake was worrying about running the clock. If the Seahawks had just gone to the line of scrimmage to run the second down play, NE could not have got their goal line defense into the game and all of their options would have had a better chance of success. They could have run it three times without a problem if they wanted, or they still could have thrown the ball on any down. They limited their options by dawdling. Hell, Butler wasn't even in the game until they ran in the goal line defense.

+1

[turtleback]

I am just saying that if they ran it three times in a row and got stuffed. I am sure there would be outcry by the media about why didn't they at least try to throw it once. The whole discussion was why not run Lynch because he is the best option.

Yea I get ya. I think Carroll got confused by NEP not calling a time out. I think they got confused in what they wanted to do. They didn't want to leave time on the clock for Brady. They also wasted too much time on 2nd down. It seems like Seattle forced their own hand into throwing the ball by thinking they had to stop the clock if they didn't score with out using a Time Out.

Again there was not a ton of traffic. The video shows there wasn't a lot of traffic. There was a clear throwing lane, and at the time of the release there was no one guarding the WR. The DB made a big time play. If they had to throw the ball I would have liked to see some sort of play action pass, either with a roll out or from the pocket. Though with that defense I am not sure the roll out would have worked because the Seattle O-line lost the edge with the outside linebackers.

I am not willing to say that Seattle HAD to run Lynch on that down. I am also not saying the slant is a terrible route to throw to on that down. I will say it wasn't the best call for that situation. For me the result is making the call worse than it seems.

They would not have run it 3 times, IMO.  They would have called TO after rushing Lynch unsuccessfully.  THEN they would have tried a pass, because if incomplete it would stop the clock and give them time for a final running play if needed.   We are also leaving out the possibility that if the pass had been complete it might not have resulted in a TD   Looking back at that replay I do not think it is a slam dunk that the receiver scores if he catches it.  So we easily could have had the worst of all worlds.  We take the risk of a  pass in the middle of the field, complete it, but do not score,  And now we have to call the final timeout  AND we have to pass a second time in order to preserve the possibility of a third (hopefully running) play.

IF they were going to call a pass on 2nd and 1 then they had to throw a pass that had only 2 possibilities, a TD or an incomplete.  In other words a roll-out, a fade, or a slower developing play to someone in the back of the endzone.  In all 3 cases it gives Wilson an option he really didn't have on the actual play, throwing it where only his guy could make the catch, or throwing it away.  With the added possibility that if they go rollout he just might end up running it in anyway.

[Golfingdad]

They would not have run it 3 times, IMO.  They would have called TO after rushing Lynch unsuccessfully.  THEN they would have tried a pass, because if incomplete it would stop the clock and give them time for a final running play if needed.

Which is exactly what I pondered way back at the beginning of this debate.  And if it's that obvious to us (none of whom, as far as I know, have even an inkling of experience as NFL football coaches) that that is what they would have done, then wouldn't it also have been obvious to New England?  Isn't there still some virtue in trying to throw the other team off balance by doing things that you think that they think you aren't going to do?  Why is it so unreasonable for them to have tried to trick NE by passing on second and running on third, than running on second, and virtually announcing to the world that they were passing on third?

Another comment from Simmons that sums it up for me too (the bold underline part):

4. The Seahawks took too much heat for the final play call; statistically, it’s slightly less likely to throw a pick than fumble from the 1 (according to 2014 data, anyway). You also had Carroll’s lingering 2006 Rose Bowl shadow (the generic fourth-and-2 call to LenDale White that got stuffed and cost USC the game), as well as their balls-to-the-wall attitude in general (the same mentality that got the Seahawks that end-of-the-first-half touchdown and the fake field goal touchdown two weeks ago). That’s not a switch you shut off in big moments. You are who you are.

[billchao]

I still feel that particular play was a bad call, but the more I read about this, the more I see the mistake was Pete Carroll's assumption that they were going to score. If he didn't play with the clock, they would have had ample time to set up different plays, run Lynch three times, play-action, read-option, whatever. I really think in that situation (needing a touchdown to win), you focus on getting the TD. So what if you give Brady the ball back with a minute left? He's not guaranteed to get them to FG position. This happened against the Giants and the Patriots only made it to just short of the 50 yard line before they had to go for the hail mary. That's one long field goal attempt. It's that old sports adage, "make your opponent beat you." I think the Seahawks shot themselves in the foot, worrying about things they really shouldn't have been worrying about.

[Golfingdad]

Considering the level of our collective rage when some leaks surfaced that there were "reports" that something seemed a little fishy with their balls against the Patriots (all seemingly a bit overblown at this point), I'm curious how appalled we'd be when we found out that one of the greatest players of all time admitted to being a big fat cheater while he played?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/06/rice-admits-to-illegal-use-of-stickum/

Oh, and not to mention the grade A level of hypocritical douchebaggery displayed by same said great only a couple  of weeks ago when he volunteered his opinion on the Patriots.

Quote:

‘I’m going to be point blank, I feel like it’s cheating,” Rice told Rome on January 22.  “Because you have an edge up on your opponent and its unfortunate that it happened.  I’m not saying the outcome of the game would have been different or anything like that because they got beat 45-7, but they still had an edge.”

I guess this means that all of the Niners titles should have an asterisk next to them, and all of your records as well.  Right Jerry?  Jerry?

[saevel25]

Considering the level of our collective rage when some leaks surfaced that there were "reports" that something seemed a little fishy with their balls against the Patriots (all seemingly a bit overblown at this point), I'm curious how appalled we'd be when we found out that one of the greatest players of all time admitted to being a big fat cheater while he played?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/06/rice-admits-to-illegal-use-of-stickum/

Oh, and not to mention the grade A level of hypocritical douchebaggery displayed by same said great only a couple  of weeks ago when he volunteered his opinion on the Patriots.

I guess this means that all of the Niners titles should have an asterisk next to them, and all of your records as well.  Right Jerry?  Jerry?

Exactly! A lot of the greats looked for an edge over the competition. Really it just matters to how much of a big deal it is. Steroids is the obvious big NO. A little extra stickum on the gloves, not entirely sure how much extra that helps. In the NFL, if your open then you probably will not get the ball thrown to you. I just remember Jerry being OPEN A LOT. He was just a crazy hard worker.

I have no issue with Jerry doctoring the gloves a bit. Really those gloves are crazy tacky already.

[phan52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by phan52

Wilson looks over there twice and Kearse gives him a little signal. Both defenders out there knew what was up before it happened.

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

That's really oversimplifying things.  OBs look over at all receivers and the defense and do hand signals all the time.  To suggest that because he looked over there and gave a signal that Butler knew FROM THAT that there were running a pick and a slant is a little bit presumptuous.

Butler said as much.

"Eyes. Eyes tell everything. I (saw) Wilson looking over there and trying to keep his head still, just look over there like this," Butler said as he shifted his eyes right.

"So that gave me a clue. And stack receivers, I just knew they were going to throw and my instincts went with my mind and made the play."

The other defender also obviously knew that Kearse was going to try and pick Butler and didn't let him get there.

[JonMA1]

With the skill level of NFL db's, there is no such thing as a safe pass. This play simply falls into the category of... If Butler doesn't make an exceptional play on the ball, the Seahawks win and Carroll is a genius for being unpredictable. If the worst-case scenario happens - which it did - he's a goat.

The reality is that every successful team in the NFL throws TD passes from the 1yard line. The only difference with Seattle is that they have an exception RB who can seemingly always gain a yard and rarely fumbles, and a very good QB who can hurt you in more than one way.

As is usually the case, there were a couple of plays throughout the fourth quarter that "should have" gone another way. That's football. The Patriots won because they wanted it bad enough to put themselves in a position to win. Not because they're cheaters and not because of bad play-calling from the opposing coach.

[boogielicious]

I watched the replay of the game a couple more times.  Let's not forget that the Seahawks burned two timeouts because they didn't get the the line fast enough to run a play.  That is poor clock management for the offense and coaches.  What they did so brilliantly at the end of the first half, they squandered on the last drive.  Two minutes, fifty yards and three timeouts.  Before that drive, three punts.  Their offense was spotty most of the game with some great drives and a few poor drives.

Without the Kearse catch, they are still at the 40+ with a long way to go to score.  They were relying on jump ball passes for big gains or Wilson running.  Those are his best skills.  He is not a short yardage precision passer.  He throws a beautiful long pass and relies on tall receivers to out jump smaller corners.  In tight to the goal line, a lot more accuracy and quick release is required unless you run a fade.  He has not developed that skill set yet.  I think he will eventually. but he doesn't have that now.

If you look at Brady and Rogers in those situations, they do not even grab the laces on the ball.  It is snap, catch, throw.  Rogers has the quickest release I have ever seen.  Brady and Manning (when healthy) are very close.  That is what is required on that type of slant pass.  The play call was a poor choice, not because of the play, but because it did not fit Wilson's skill set the best.

[JonMA1]

I watched the replay of the game a couple more times.  Let's not forget that the Seahawks burned two timeouts because they didn't get the the line fast enough to run a play.  That is poor clock management for the offense and coaches.  What they did so brilliantly at the end of the first half, they squandered on the last drive.  Two minutes, fifty yards and three timeouts.  Before that drive, three punts.  Their offense was spotty most of the game with some great drives and a few poor drives.

Without the Kearse catch, they are still at the 40+ with a long way to go to score.  They were relying on jump ball passes for big gains or Wilson running.  Those are his best skills.  He is not a short yardage precision passer.  He throws a beautiful long pass and relies on tall receivers to out jump smaller corners.  In tight to the goal line, a lot more accuracy and quick release is required unless you run a fade.  He has not developed that skill set yet.  I think he will eventually. but he doesn't have that now.

If you look at Brady and Rogers in those situations, they do not even grab the laces on the ball.  It is snap, catch, throw.  Rogers has the quickest release I have ever seen.  Brady and Manning (when healthy) are very close.  That is what is required on that type of slant pass.  The play call was a poor choice, not because of the play, but because it did not fit Wilson's skill set the best.

These are good points. There is rarely a single play that by itself is so bad, or so lucky that it determines the outcome of a game - plays like the immaculate reception or the fumble by the Giants Pisarcik back in the '70s come to mind. Plays toward the end of a close game seem more relevant and are easier to remember, but you can always look back and find play or play calling throughout the rest of a game that should have gone better. Add to that, a good defense can make a good play look bad (or the opposite).

And you're right about the quick release. Any time an NFL rookie is asked what the difference is between college and the NFL, the answer is always the same - the game is faster in the pros. I had never noticed whether or not Wilson has a quick release. If he wants to become an elite QB, he'll have to develop it. He's pretty damned good right now. The idea that he will become better is just scary with the talent the Seahawks have.

[turtleback]

These are good points. There is rarely a single play that by itself is so bad, or so lucky that it determines the outcome of a game - plays like the immaculate reception or the fumble by the Giants Pisarcik back in the '70s come to mind. Plays toward the end of a close game seem more relevant and are easier to remember, but you can always look back and find play or play calling throughout the rest of a game that should have gone better. Add to that, a good defense can make a good play look bad (or the opposite).

And you're right about the quick release. Any time an NFL rookie is asked what the difference is between college and the NFL, the answer is always the same - the game is faster in the pros. I had never noticed whether or not Wilson has a quick release. If he wants to become an elite QB, he'll have to develop it. He's pretty damned good right now. The idea that he will become better is just scary with the talent the Seahawks have.

Once they have to pay him they won't have all that other talent.

[saevel25]

And you're right about the quick release. Any time an NFL rookie is asked what the difference is between college and the NFL, the answer is always the same - the game is faster in the pros. I had never noticed whether or not Wilson has a quick release. If he wants to become an elite QB, he'll have to develop it. He's pretty damned good right now. The idea that he will become better is just scary with the talent the Seahawks have.

It is tough to measure quick release because other factors like reading the defense plays part into that. I thin on those type of plays, the quick release can be measured because he pretty much was throwing the quick slant unless someone was in his passing lane.

I though the got the ball pretty quickly. I doubt it is something you can improve on. Its pretty much all fast twitch muscle fiber and you can only develop so much of that. I think an NFL QB would be at his max capability due to the fact he's thrown so many footballs over his career.

Lets not forget about arms strength as well. If he has a quick release it doesn't help if his arm strength is below average. Really QB's don't improve on throwing speed past college. If you don't have the arm strength in your third year of NCAA you wont have it in the NFL. Only so much can be improved on in terms of mechanics. Really it is about footwork, working the pocket and knowing the game.

Yes the game is faster. The windows for throws are tighter. You are going from 100+ schools with 85 man rosters to,

[JonMA1]

It is tough to measure quick release because other factors like reading the defense plays part into that. I thin on those type of plays, the quick release can be measured because he pretty much was throwing the quick slant unless someone was in his passing lane.

I though the got the ball pretty quickly. I doubt it is something you can improve on. Its pretty much all fast twitch muscle fiber and you can only develop so much of that. I think an NFL QB would be at his max capability due to the fact he's thrown so many footballs over his career.

Lets not forget about arms strength as well. If he has a quick release it doesn't help if his arm strength is below average. Really QB's don't improve on throwing speed past college. If you don't have the arm strength in your third year of NCAA you wont have it in the NFL. Only so much can be improved on in terms of mechanics. Really it is about footwork, working the pocket and knowing the game.

Yes the game is faster. The windows for throws are tighter. You are going from 100+ schools with 85 man rosters to,

I've always thought the mechanics were a bit different for a quick-hitter like that than a deep or medium distance pass - more of an abbreviated pivot and turn but I might be wrong. I think there were some QB's who had that motion regardless of the distance - Dan Marino for instance had an incredibly quick release on even 20 or 30 yard passes.

[phan52]

I watched the replay of the game a couple more times.  Let's not forget that the Seahawks burned two timeouts because they didn't get the the line fast enough to run a play.  That is poor clock management for the offense and coaches.  What they did so brilliantly at the end of the first half, they squandered on the last drive.  Two minutes, fifty yards and three timeouts.  Before that drive, three punts.  Their offense was spotty most of the game with some great drives and a few poor drives.

Without the Kearse catch, they are still at the 40+ with a long way to go to score.  They were relying on jump ball passes for big gains or Wilson running.  Those are his best skills.  He is not a short yardage precision passer.  He throws a beautiful long pass and relies on tall receivers to out jump smaller corners.  In tight to the goal line, a lot more accuracy and quick release is required unless you run a fade.  He has not developed that skill set yet.  I think he will eventually. but he doesn't have that now.

If you look at Brady and Rogers in those situations, they do not even grab the laces on the ball.  It is snap, catch, throw.  Rogers has the quickest release I have ever seen.  Brady and Manning (when healthy) are very close.  That is what is required on that type of slant pass.  The play call was a poor choice, not because of the play, but because it did not fit Wilson's skill set the best.

Pretty good call. Plus he can learn a lot from the better QB's by looking guys off with his eyes. He made the mistake of looking over there before the snap.

Nobody does that better than Drew Brees, and Brady said he did that on his TD pass to Gronk. He saw the coverage and knew he was going there before the snap, but he gave a little peek to the left after the snap to keep the safety occupied and had a clean shot to the right corner.

[dsc123]

Quote:

As Pete Carroll decided whether to run or pass late in Super Bowl XLIX, he had little reason to fear Wilfork and the Patriots' short-yardage run defense. In 2014, the Patriots were the worst team in the league in Power Success , allowing opposing offenses to convert 22 of 27 runs (81 percent) in important short-yardage situations (third or fourth down with 2 yards or less to go and first- or second-and-goal from the 2-yard-line or closer). Even the Patriots' few stops came against the league's worst running teams. Teams not ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA ratings converted 16 of 17 chances (94 percent) against the Patriots' run defense.

And if Jerry Rice were caught at the time, he too should have been punished.

[trickyputt]

So this thread goes all year? Cool. Its like a phenomenon.

[Golfingdad]

So this thread goes all year? Cool. Its like a phenomenon.

It'll end as soon as somebody starts the 2015 NFL thread.

Maybe right near the draft in April??