What If Scenario: PGA Tour Becomes an All-Putting Tour or an All-Ballstriking Tour

[iacas]

question 1 :

it depends on the prize money, then many other considerations other than actual skill or skill development.

question 2 :

it depends on the prize money, then many other considerations other than actual skill or skill development.

The prize money stays the same.

And I don't know exactly what you mean, but I would say that the skill matters far and away the most.

[Osmond]

[LIST=1] [*] 0. [*] A little bit lower than the current PGA Tour turnover rate. What is it, 80% chance you'll still be on the Tour three years from now? [/LIST]

This one is interesting, why do you think that none of the people that have practiced putting the most would make it? Or do you believe that there is, within the millions of average golfers, people that practice putting more (and are more talented at it) and thus are better putters? I think over time we'd certainly see the tour players lose their card but if the tour became all putting tour right NOW, I'd say the people that have putted the most under preassure would have a great chance to win a card.

[billchao]

This one is interesting, why do you think that none of the people that have practiced putting the most would make it? Or do you believe that there is, within the millions of average golfers, people that practice putting more (and are more talented at it) and thus are better putters?

The putting motion is a pretty easy motion, so the pool of talented putters is much larger. It's likely that the best putters in the world today aren't on the PGA Tour. Those guys are there because of their ballstriking.

I think over time we'd certainly see the tour players lose their card but if the tour became all putting tour right NOW, I'd say the people that have putted the most under preassure would have a great chance to win a card.

Plenty of amateur players putt under pressure in local, state, and national tournaments, etc. PGA Tour players aren't the only people who experience pressure.

Anyway, the scenario in question isn't about becoming the All-Putting Tour right now, but in 2016. That gives everyone in the world an entire golf season to practice their putting to get on the new tour.

[Osmond]

The putting motion is a pretty easy motion, so the pool of talented putters is much larger. It's likely that the best putters in the world today aren't on the PGA Tour. Those guys are there because of their ballstriking.

Plenty of amateur players putt under pressure in local, state, and national tournaments, etc. PGA Tour players aren't the only people who experience pressure.

Anyway, the scenario in question isn't about becoming the All-Putting Tour right now, but in 2016. That gives everyone in the world an entire golf season to practice their putting to get on the new tour.

1. Obviously.

2. Yes, but the best putters (of which many are on tour today, I believe) have an advantage over 99,9% of the rest of us when that year starts, because they've been practicing putting every day for years under the best possible guidance. I don't believe for one second that there's hundreds of thousands of amateurs that do that.

[Golfingdad]

The putting motion is a pretty easy motion, so the pool of talented putters is much larger. It's likely that the best putters in the world today aren't on the PGA Tour. Those guys are there because of their ballstriking. Plenty of amateur players putt under pressure in local, state, and national tournaments, etc. PGA Tour players aren't the only people who experience pressure. Anyway, the scenario in question isn't about becoming the All-Putting Tour right now, but in 2016. That gives everyone in the world an entire golf season to practice their putting to get on the new tour.

Actually it's even more specific than that. He asks if they announced now that they'd start putting tour in 2016, how many current pga tour players would be on that tour is 2018-2020?? 3 to 5 full years of practice for anybody who wants to compete in that scenario. Basically, a "clean slate" for all.

[billchao]

2. Yes, but the best putters (of which many are on tour today, I believe) have an advantage over 99,9% of the rest of us when that year starts, because they've been practicing putting every day for years under the best possible guidance. I don't believe for one second that there's hundreds of thousands of amateurs that do that.

You're over-estimating how much better a PGA Tour player putts than an amateur. A scratch golfer will out-putt a PGA Tour golfer about 30% of the time, an 80's shooting golfer 20%, and a 90's golfer 10%. There is very little Separation Value in putting. Given the extra time to prepare, there are going to be thousands (tens of thousands?) of people who would be capable of putting at the highest level. The chance that one of them would be one of the 150 or so people on the PGA Tour is statistically slim.

Actually it's even more specific than that. He asks if they announced now that they'd start putting tour in 2016, how many current pga tour players would

be on that tour is 2018-2020?? 3 to 5 full years of practice for anybody who wants to compete in that scenario. Basically, a "clean slate" for all.

You're right, my bad. I glanced briefly at the OP because it has been a while since this discussion started. I guess I should have read more.

[iacas]

2. Yes, but the best putters (of which many are on tour today, I believe) have an advantage over 99,9% of the rest of us when that year starts, because they've been practicing putting every day for years under the best possible guidance. I don't believe for one second that there's hundreds of thousands of amateurs that do that.

That's a dangerous assumption you're making.

I am probably a better putter than half of the players on the PGA Tour.

Again, scratch golfers putt better than a PGA Tour player 30% of the time. An 80 golfer 20% of the time.

So if you had only five 80 golfers for every PGA Tour golfer… odds are one of them would make it over the PGA Tour player. And when you have 5,000 80s golfers for every PGA Tour player, well, how is the PGA Tour player overcoming those odds?

Plus, you don't even need golfers capable of shooting 80. You just need someone who can putt reasonably well. May be someone that would whiff half of the times he or she attempts to hit a driver.

[Osmond]

That's a dangerous assumption you're making.

I am probably a better putter than half of the players on the PGA Tour.

Again, scratch golfers putt better than a PGA Tour player 30% of the time. An 80 golfer 20% of the time.

So if you had only five 80 golfers for every PGA Tour golfer… odds are one of them would make it over the PGA Tour player. And when you have 5,000 80s golfers for every PGA Tour player, well, how is the PGA Tour player overcoming those odds?

Plus, you don't even need golfers capable of shooting 80. You just need someone who can putt reasonably well. May be someone that would whiff half of the times he or she attempts to hit a driver.

I find that hard to believe, since I've never seen an average to poor player putt well, not even close to it. Naturally, I've only seen a few hundred players but the fact that not one of them has been even decent has to tell something.

I play somewhat regularly with guys that carry a + hcp and most of them are solid putters, but nothing special. On the other hand, I sometimes get to play with a European Tour player (somewhere around 250th in the world) and he's so far ahead of the scratch players on the green it's not even funny. Then again, on the ET stats he's nothing special. I'd assume he's so much better because he practices his putting even more.

You may well be correct with your assumption, but you're forgetting the fact that the tour players of today are a lot more used to the pressure at the highest level, if there ever was a qualifier for the putting tour. Out of the maybe tens of thousands (?) of genuinely good putters in the world the ones with experience under the most pressure would, in my opinion, be most likely to succeed. Whether that would be enough to win a place on tour, we'll never know. But it's an interesting question anyway :)

[billchao]

I find that hard to believe, since I've never seen an average to poor player putt well, not even close to it. Naturally, I've only seen a few hundred players but the fact that not one of them has been even decent has to tell something.

I play somewhat regularly with guys that carry a + hcp and most of them are solid putters, but nothing special. On the other hand, I sometimes get to play with a European Tour player (somewhere around 250th in the world) and he's so far ahead of the scratch players on the green it's not even funny. Then again, on the ET stats he's nothing special. I'd assume he's so much better because he practices his putting even more.

I think you're neglecting that putting would become the focus for everybody. Most amateurs don't bother to practice putting because (besides the fact that a lot of them simply don't practice) they need to work on their ballstriking. Pros in general are better than others because they do practice putting (it's part of their job). If my paycheck depended on how well I putt, you bet I'd practice putting, too.

The fact remains that there isn't much difference between the putting skills of PGA Tour golfers and high level amateurs. Top amateurs only lose about 2.2 strokes per round to top pros. Even a high handicap player (98-120 shooter) only loses 6.5 strokes. The best golfers in the world are only 7 strokes better than some of the worst golfers in the world, and that's just not that big of a difference.

[jamo]

I find that hard to believe, since I've never seen an average to poor player putt well, not even close to it. Naturally, I've only seen a few hundred players but the fact that not one of them has been even decent has to tell something.

I, in turn, find that extremely hard to believe. I've had total non-golfers beat me at mini golf.

[billchao]

I, in turn, find that extremely hard to believe. I've had total non-golfers beat me at mini golf.

That's a good point. My wife is better at mini-golf than me.

Mini-golf is hard.

[iacas]

I find that hard to believe, since I've never seen an average to poor player putt well, not even close to it. Naturally, I've only seen a few hundred players but the fact that not one of them has been even decent has to tell something.

You missed the point.

I was talking about taking a normal person and teaching them to putt. Give them a driver and they may very well whiff. You're limiting your selection of people to those who already golf.

I'm including everyone . For all we know, the world's greatest putter is… your aunt (I'm just gonna assume you have one for the sake of this story).

I play somewhat regularly with guys that carry a + hcp and most of them are solid putters, but nothing special. On the other hand, I sometimes get to play with a European Tour player (somewhere around 250th in the world) and he's so far ahead of the scratch players on the green it's not even funny. Then again, on the ET stats he's nothing special. I'd assume he's so much better because he practices his putting even more.

Be careful.

Seriously, if you had an 18-hole putting match with the guy, you would beat him now and then, would you not?

You'll NEVER beat him in a ball-striking competition (at your current ability levels).

You may well be correct with your assumption, but you're forgetting the fact that the tour players of today are a lot more used to the pressure at the highest level, if there ever was a qualifier for the putting tour. Out of the maybe tens of thousands (?) of genuinely good putters in the world the ones with experience under the most pressure would, in my opinion, be most likely to succeed. Whether that would be enough to win a place on tour, we'll never know. But it's an interesting question anyway :)

You're putting entirely too much weight on "pressure" performance. All kinds of people are good at handling "pressure." All sorts of jobs require the ability to handle pressure. For many, hitting a stupid ball toward a stupid hole will NOT feel like "pressure" at all.

[Osmond]

Interesting topic, this one. I'm still having trouble understanding, how in a year a non-golfer or a golfer that is a worse putter than the pros would suddenly be a better putter. Of course the pro (who is likely already better because of more practice) is going to focus only on putting once the tour changes, too. I naturally understand that there'd possibly be millions of people competing for a place on the new tour and thus it's unlikely for a current pro to win a place, but I do believe they'd have a better chance than anyone else. And I do believe, when there's millions at stake, that pressure would play a big part. To end this topic, I'll admit that due to the number of qualifiers the pros would be in trouble (although favourites in the qualifier) - but I'll never ever believe that there's an average player out there that's as good a putter as some of you seem to think.

[ditchparrot19]

I'm still having trouble understanding, how in a year a non-golfer or a golfer that is a worse putter than the pros would suddenly be a better putter.

I'm not struggling with it at all. As athletic skills go, putting does not rank all that high on the difficulty scale. If all one had to do to earn millions of dollars was be great at it, then millions upon millions of people would take up that pursuit and the ones who had an abundance of talent for that rather pedestrian skill would rise to the top. It's very, very unlikely that any of them would also be among the world's best ball-strikers (i.e. PGA Tour players).

You seem to want to put the whole thing on the same level as consistently hitting a 98-mph fastball, which only a miniscule percentage of the world's population has the capability of doing. Most people would not even see such a pitch prior to it hitting the catcher's mitt. There's just nothing anywhere close to that demanding about putting a golf ball.

[iacas]

Interesting topic, this one. I'm still having trouble understanding, how in a year a non-golfer or a golfer that is a worse putter than the pros would suddenly be a better putter.

You're still assuming that a golfer is a worse putter than a pro. You seemingly will not allow yourself to believe that there are thousands of people who putt better than the average PGA Tour pro, or especially thousands who could, given a year, putt better than an average PGA Tour pro.

But even if we limit it to just current golfers, again, there are many, many people who putt better than PGA Tour golfer.

Of course the pro (who is likely already better because of more practice) is going to focus only on putting once the tour changes, too. I naturally understand that there'd possibly be millions of people competing for a place on the new tour and thus it's unlikely for a current pro to win a place, but I do believe they'd have a better chance than anyone else.

On a one-on-one basis, yes, they probably would have a better chance than any other randomly chosen person.

But millions might try out for the Putting Tour. Good luck to, I don't know, Garrett Osborn in overcoming those odds.

And I do believe, when there's millions at stake, that pressure would play a big part.

Millions wouldn't be at stake in Q School. And, I've already addressed the idea that only PGA Tour players feel or operate under "pressure."

To end this topic, I'll admit that due to the number of qualifiers the pros would be in trouble (although favourites in the qualifier) - but I'll never ever believe that there's an average player out there that's as good a putter as some of you seem to think.

They're a lot better than you seem to think. Do you doubt the 30% numbers thrown out above? Do you mean to say to us that you would never beat a PGA Tour player in an 18-hole putting match?

Because I could, and have. Heck, I'm 4-2 against 'em. I'm unbeaten against LPGA players in three matches.

I'm not struggling with it at all. As athletic skills go, putting does not rank all that high on the difficulty scale. If all one had to do to earn millions of dollars was be great at it, then millions upon millions of people would take up that pursuit and the ones who had an abundance of talent for that rather pedestrian skill would rise to the top. It's very, very unlikely that any of them would also be among the world's best ball-strikers (i.e. PGA Tour players).

Bingo.

(Not to you @ditchparrot19 ): Seriously, it's putting. If I told you that I'd invent a new sport that would pay millions of dollars, and all you had to do was be able to underhand lob a tennis ball into a small hoop from various distances and with various objects in the way… do you think tennis players would have a huge advantage? Basketball players? Baseball pitchers?

Putting is not a difficult skill, and a lot of people could be good at it quickly. Many people already are better putters than PGA Tour players.

I almost never work on my putting.

You seem to want to put the whole thing on the same level as consistently hitting a 98-mph fastball, which only a miniscule percentage of the world's population has the capability of doing. Most people would not even see such a pitch prior to it hitting the catcher's mitt. There's just nothing anywhere close to that demanding about putting a golf ball.

Nope. Plus the odds of consistently making putts of even 12 feet or so drops off very quickly. Someone would get lucky in Q-School and make a four or five 20+ foot putts to lead, and that would be all they'd need.

[Golfingdad]

Interesting topic, this one. I'm still having trouble understanding, how in a year a non-golfer or a golfer that is a worse putter than the pros would suddenly be a better putter. Of course the pro (who is likely already better because of more practice) is going to focus only on putting once the tour changes, too. I naturally understand that there'd possibly be millions of people competing for a place on the new tour and thus it's unlikely for a current pro to win a place, but I do believe they'd have a better chance than anyone else. And I do believe, when there's millions at stake, that pressure would play a big part. To end this topic, I'll admit that due to the number of qualifiers the pros would be in trouble (although favourites in the qualifier) - but I'll never ever believe that there's an average player out there that's as good a putter as some of you seem to think.

I doubt it would change your opinion, but again, it's not one year, it's 3-5 years. More than enough time to make up for the discrepancy of practice time between current pros and the rest if the interested parties. (Not me, that would be boring)

[billchao]

Plus the odds of consistently making putts of even 12 feet or so drops off very quickly.

I think this is a big part of it.The ceiling is just too low for putting. @Osmond seems to think that PGA Tour players have this trmendous advantage because they're able to practice more than average players, but really that extra practice doesn't amount to much. It wouldn't take very long for the amateur to catch up to tour level putting if he wasn't there already.

[ditchparrot19]

It'd be similar to NBA games morphing into nothing more than free-throw shooting contests. How many of the current players would remain in such a league? If there were any, you could count them on a couple of fingers.

There are guys who can drain 50 straight foul shots with regularity and are deadly accurate even from 3-point range. However, they have no prayer of even getting a shot off in the flow of an NBA game, and thus are of no use to those teams.

It's the same thing with all the putting superstars who would emerge. If they can't get themselves into birdie range on a PGA Tour course, their acumen with the blade is pretty much irrelevant.

But change the rules to where the contest is about nothing other than their specialty and it's a whole new ballgame. Dead-Eye Joes would start showing up from every direction on the compass.