JB Holmes Lays up on 72nd Hole at Torrey Pines

[colin007]

Anybody know which two clubs he would've been in between?

[Golfingdad]

Anybody know which two clubs he would've been in between?

It was about 235 yards, so without actually even knowing his set makeup, I'm gonna guess either 3 iron/4 iron or 5 wood/3 iron.

[colin007]

It was about 235 yards, so without actually even knowing his set makeup, I'm gonna guess either 3 iron/4 iron or 5 wood/3 iron.

So why didn't he just choke down on the 3? Or step on the 4 if his tendency is to go long on a downhill lie?

[iacas]

It was about 235 yards, so without actually even knowing his set makeup, I'm gonna guess either 3 iron/4 iron or 5 wood/3 iron.

I think he said 4I / 5I.

[Golfingdad]

So why didn't he just choke down on the 3? Or step on the 4 if his tendency is to go long on a downhill lie?

Good question. Next time he and I have lunch together, I'll ask him.

[InTheRough]

i think JB made the right decision for the situation. He had an uncomfortable distance from an uncomfortable lie with trouble short and long.  I get that the numbers say that pros are much better off going for it in 2 but statistics gathered over many shots in many different conditions don't matter when you have to make one shot in specific conditions right then and there.

Looking at the situation from a different prospective; if he lays up to a comfortable distance he puts himself into a position where he still has a chance to make birdie and at worst he makes par putting him in a playoff with a chance to still win.  He ended up leaving himself a wedge shot where he could land the ball behind the pin and let the green feed it back to the hole giving him a decent look at birdie.  the wedge shot he made ended up being unlucky because he threw it a yard too long and it didn't come back to the hole leaving the 20 footer for birdie.

If he goes for it and comes up short he is in the water and now has to get up and down for par or he loses.  if he goes long he ends up in very thick rough (they were calling it US Open type rough) and now has to make a shot up onto a green that slopes away from him where if he goes just a little too long the ball rolls into the water knocking him out.  Also don't forget that the greens were also firm so there is also the problem that he could hit the green and not hold it putting him into trouble.

[iacas]

Looking at the situation from a different prospective; if he lays up to a comfortable distance he puts himself into a position where he still has a chance to make birdie and at worst he makes par putting him in a playoff with a chance to still win.

Kyle Stanley laid up and made an eight.

[Golfingdad]

Kyle Stanley laid up and made an eight.

Brooks Koepka hit the green and had 50' for eagle on Friday and made a 7.

[InTheRough]

Kyle Stanley laid up and made an eight.

JB Holmes laid up in the playoff hole and made birdie

[tristanhilton85]

JB Holmes laid up in the playoff hole and made birdie

That still doesn't make it the right choice... He would have had a better chance at birdie in regulation if he went for it. I'm not saying that he couldn't have put it in the water and lost or the he still wouldn't have made par, but if he was playing for the win in that situation he should have went for it. He essentially played to make sure he was in the playoff rather than playing to make sure there wasn't one at all.

[mvmac]

That still doesn't make it the right choice... He would have had a better chance at birdie in regulation if he went for it.

Right, he can obviously still birdie if he lays up but if you give him 10 balls where he lays up and 10 balls where he goes for it, very good odds that his scoring average will be lower when he goes for it.

[MacDutch]

There was too much going on in his mind. He made the wrong choice, but even for a pro on the tour it was a very special moment under difficult conditions.

[InTheRough]

That still doesn't make it the right choice... He would have had a better chance at birdie in regulation if he went for it. I'm not saying that he couldn't have put it in the water and lost or the he still wouldn't have made par, but if he was playing for the win in that situation he should have went for it. He essentially played to make sure he was in the playoff rather than playing to make sure there wasn't one at all.

That still doesn't make it the right choice... He would have had a better chance at birdie in regulation if he went for it. I'm not saying that he couldn't have put it in the water and lost or the he still wouldn't have made par, but if he was playing for the win in that situation he should have went for it. He essentially played to make sure he was in the playoff rather than playing to make sure there wasn't one at all.

Right, he can obviously still birdie if he lays up but if you give him 10 balls where he lays up and 10 balls where he goes for it, very good odds that his scoring average will be lower when he goes for it.

these statements and the statistics that they are based on are misleading.   On average a pro going for a par 5 in 2 gives them a better chance of making birdie but that doesnt necessarily mean that a pro going for it on this particular shot in these particular conditions gives them a better chance for making birdie. Yes if JB had gone for it and hit the green or been in a good position to get up and down he would have had a much better chance at making the birdie but the problem is that he still would have had to put the ball on the green from an uncomfortable lie at an uncomfortable distance with trouble short and long.  He decided to lay up because the thought that from the spot he was on the fairway he was more likely to put himself into trouble increasing the likelihood that he make bogey which would have completely eliminated his chance of winning.

Don't get me wrong...I am a firm believer in the statistics and conclusions drawn from those statistic that are illustrated in LSW and Every Shot Counts but you cannot discount the conditions of the moment and the human element which creates the phenomenal comebacks and epic collapses that we see so often in sports.  The mental side of the game still applies especially when $1.1 million is on the line

[tristanhilton85]

these statements and the statistics that they are based on are misleading.   On average a pro going for a par 5 in 2 gives them a better chance of making birdie but that doesnt necessarily mean that a pro going for it on this particular shot in these particular conditions gives them a better chance for making birdie. Yes if JB had gone for it and hit the green or been in a good position to get up and down he would have had a much better chance at making the birdie but the problem is that he still would have had to put the ball on the green from an uncomfortable lie at an uncomfortable distance with trouble short and long.  He decided to lay up because the thought that from the spot he was on the fairway he was more likely to put himself into trouble increasing the likelihood that he make bogey which would have completely eliminated his chance of winning.

Don't get me wrong...I am a firm believer in the statistics and conclusions drawn from those statistic that are illustrated in LSW and Every Shot Counts but you cannot discount the conditions of the moment and the human element which creates the phenomenal comebacks and epic collapses that we see so often in sports.  The mental side of the game still applies especially when $1.1 million is on the line

Even HIS own stats, not just general stats, show that he should have went for it. The argument you're making doesn't add up to me. You believe in the stats and the conclusions drawn from them until it's time to use it? His best chance to win in THAT situation was to go for it. Laying up was the wrong choice.

[No Mulligans]

Saying he probably shouldn't go for it is not in conflict with the stats or LSW.  It's all about his "shot zone" on a downhill lie from 235 into that hard, fast and sloped green with about as bad of rough as the tour will see behind the green and a recovery shot that has a good chance of going in the water.  It seems to me that his shot zone possible included too much trouble if he went for it bringing in the possibility of a bogey and not making the playoff.  Maybe he had only a 10' area to land it in to be successful.

As an aside, are there stats for that hole on that day for those that layed up vs. those that went for it?  Those would be the only stats I'd be interested in for that situation.

[9iron]

Little OT: Well, I damn near died last week from a burst appendix. Doc said i definately waited too long to come to the emergency room. Getting out tomorrow after 6 days hosp. stay. I hope to never experience anything like that again. Not OT: I seem to recall a guy going for it in 2 making 8 and being pilloried. Jean Van De Velde. The stats cant read lies and green complexes. I trust the pros to know what they can and cannot do more than us msg. board pundits.

[dkolo]

Little OT: Well, I damn near died last week from a burst appendix. Doc said i definately waited too long to come to the emergency room. Getting out tomorrow after 6 days hosp. stay. I hope to never experience anything like that again. Not OT: I seem to recall a guy going for it in 2 making 8 and being pilloried. Jean Van De Velde. The stats cant read lies and green complexes. I trust the pros to know what they can and cannot do more than us msg. board pundits.

Life's too short to lay up on a par 5, haha. I'm glad you're recovering, that's scary!

[saevel25]

The stats cant read lies and green complexes. I trust the pros to know what they can and cannot do more than us msg. board pundits.

Yet there are PGA Tour players who are improving their own games because they are following the stats more closely than believing what the old golf adages are. PGA Tour players do not know what is best all the time. The inability to adjust to what is true will cost players strokes and in this case possibly winning.

If Holmes doesn't trust that he has a significant advantage in his overall short game (58-60%) versus his average 20-25' putting distance (12-13%) then that is his fault. If he saw someone else dunk a ball into the water or had trouble from behind the green then he is letting outside factors influence him as a player. What another golfer does has nothing to do with what he can do then just messing with his mind.

The bottom line is that Holmes chickened out. He had a better chance at birdie going for the green than he did at from laying up. Heck his layup distance was even a poor choice. In the end Holmes was playing not lose instead of playing to win. Winners play to win.

Look at Phil. Some people say he was too reckless. I will say how many of those many wins did he have because he was aggressive?