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On 2/24/2016 at 0:52 PM, Braivo said:

Many of the Bernie supporters will switch to Trump. They are anti-establishment voters and Hillary has no appeal to them. With Bernie running near 50% in most polls that is a lot of Dems. When they see that Hillary and the establishment has screwed Bernie out of the nom they will be more than happy to vote against her. 

Do you really believe that?  One is a fascist, one is a socialist.  They are completely on opposite ends of the political spectrum.

For the sake of hyperbole it'd be like saying that people who want to vote for Karl Marx would decide to vote for Adolf Hitler instead.  I know neither are quite that far to the left or the right but, still it seems highly unlikely.

Also, a large number of Bernie's supporters are young voters, and being a young voter myself I can say quite safely that I have absolutely no desire to vote for Trump.

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My head hurts after the debate I don't see a leader on that stage, really rough. I'd agree to a lifetime appointment of alternating Bush and Obama before anyone in this race. I went to 7-11 for a donut and chocolate milk just to ease the pain.

Trump regardless of the polls tomorrow was beat down in this debate. Enough so he now has that same just ate cat shit look too. He looked more like "them" than not tonight. 

Who are the people voting? Seriously we are putting forth this sludge my dog. 

Dave :-)

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Didn't watch debate but just saw Kasich interviewed and he is a fkn moron.

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I guess in this modern day "do it for social media" attitude Cruz and Rubio went down into the mud to fight Trump at his level.  Combat strategy suggest you don't fight someone where their greatest strength is unless you are stronger.  If this is the best they've got, they need to change strategies.  Rubio throwing out the Polish workers and Trump University were the equivalent of cheap shots that won't do much if any long term damage once Trump makes his rounds on the media to explain it.  

Trump hired Polish workers over 35 years ago and while there's still outstanding litigation does anyone really care about what Trump did 35 years ago?  As for Trump University, a CNN reporter stated after the debates that he researched the Trump University allegations and it turns out that a corrupt Attorney General in NY has a personal issue with Trump for not "donating" more money to his campaign.  The CNN reporter believes this is more about the NY Attorney Generals vendetta than it is about Trump committing fraud and that's why he decided to not cover the story.

Trumps taxes could be a smoking gun but he accurately defended the attacks; 1) tax returns do not reflect ones entire personal wealth.  2) Everyone tries to pay the least amount of taxes possible.  The only question is did Trump do so within the legal guidelines of the IRS.  

If the attacks last night represent the most damaging "dirt" they could find on Trump then their time would be better spent talking (in detail) about the real issues in this country and policies they would propose.  They need to look more presidential (like Kasich) and demonstrate they are better prepared to be POTUS than Trump who to date only can speak about such topics in sound bites and simple sentences.  

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They acted desperate because they are desperate. Trump turned this into a circus and it is an embarrassing mess. That was the worst debate I've ever seen like an episode of MTV Real World. 

Dave :-)

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This year it seem like each party will have a tougher than normal time rallying around their nominee.

If Trump wins, the establishment folks (and many other non-establishment conservatives) will likely not support or vote Trump in the general. If Trump loses the nomination, I think a lot of Trump supporters will never vote for the Republican nominee, possibly abstain or vote 3rd party.

On the Dem side, I think a lot of young Bernie folks won't pull a lever for Hillary, from some of the anger I've seen. But then again, young people don't vote in huge numbers, I suppose. Maybe they're in better shape regarding a party fracture, but I see a big rift with the folks drifting leftward into socialist policies.

Is a multi-party system on the near horizon for us, and this election season is the harbinger? I just see so much splintering right now- more than I've noted before. I've trended libertarian over the years (although I hate that label, and don't often see eye-to-eye with Libertarian candidates), and I feel under-represented by either party. Maybe it's time to have more parties, more choice, and then let them form governing coalitions on an issue by issue basis.

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As a friend said, the Establishment is about to be hoisted up on its own petard.

Much is made of Trump's narcissism. Some degree of narcissism is normal and important for survival. Being very narcissistic isn't necessarily bad, if a person channels the impulses in constructive ways. I think most people in public life have greater narcissistic tendencies than the general population, and I think Trump fits that mold. In short, I don't think his narcissism is the reason to dislike him.

I think the big problem is that he has a certain image - a successful business mogul - and this image is somehow passing for credibility as a presidential candidate. I don't think his business record is all that great. He has a long list of successes as well as a long list of failures, and when someone reaches his level, their personal wealth doesn't always reflect their skill or success rate in business. How many people fail at running a casino?

And even IF his business record is great, are we really convinced he has the ability to be an effective chief executive? Does he know how the law works? Does he know anything about diplomacy? About military issues?

He is a fairly skillful speaker who is bringing an anti-establishment and populist message, with just enough fiscal conservatism, faux patriotism, and libertarianism sprinkled in to appeal to a wide swath of people.

I think he is unqualified, and if he wins he will have to surround himself with people who know how government works. But he is also impulsive and seemingly unafraid of failure and tolerant of high levels of risk. I think he's a potential disaster. And if everything attributed to him - racism, xenophobia, etc. - proves to be true and he is able to actually enact policies that reflect these tendencies, it will be a disaster for the Republican party and anyone who calls themselves conservative in the US.   

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If anything last night's debate proved they are all unqualified. Trump for obvious reasons. Cruz and Rubio for keeping their heads in the sand while Trump runs the table with his personality over policy approach, their 11th hour desperation makes them look foolish. And Carson and Kasich for letting the media snuff any chance they had via miniscule exposure.

 

Dave :-)

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12 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

If anything last night's debate proved they are all unqualified. Trump for obvious reasons, Cruz and Rubio for keeping their heads in the sand while Trump runs the table with his personality over policy approach, their 11th hour desperation makes them look foolish. And Carson and Kasich for letting the media snuff any chance they had via miniscule exposure.

 

I think Trump is leaning towards Kasich as his V.P.  It helps him win Ohio and Kasich is a guy who will roll up his sleeves and do all the work while Trump goes on talk shows and gives speeches.   Kasich will be his "George" from The Apprentice.  

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2 hours ago, Dave2512 said:

They acted desperate because they are desperate. Trump turned this into a circus and it is an embarrassing mess. That was the worst debate I've ever seen like an episode of MTV Real World. 

Trump did what many people would like to have done. :-D

In the typical, choreographed "debate" all the career politicians are very careful to make their opponents still look intelligent, but not Trump. I'm loving it. :-D

 

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Written fall of last year: Donald Trump is America’s Silvio Berlusconi

Quote

It would be a terrible mistake for America’s political establishment to dismiss Trump’s populist appeal and presume him unelectable. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s already done damage: Laughing at, or simply ignoring his rhetorical, xenophobic bellowing can, perversely, further kindle Trump’s resentment-based politics, allowing them to fester unchallenged. The poisonous impact his campaign and antics are having on the country’s politics are exploiting and galvanizing broad, deep-seated, toxic resentment of the status quo, which has already defined this campaign — and which may well outlive Trump’s candidacy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/09/21/donald-trump-is-americas-silvio-berlusconi/

Donald Trump is not a joke: A warning to Americans from an Italian who survived Berlusconi

Quote

Like Trump, Berlusconi consistently seemed too absurd to be true. And yet he was. He won elections again, and again, and again, thriving off any and all attention. People didn’t take him or what he said seriously. Then one day we woke up to find our government overrun by criminals, our economy destroyed, and our cultural mores perverted to the extent that the objectification of women was commonplace. There was no more laughing left to do.

http://qz.com/624065/a-tip-to-americans-from-an-italian-who-saw-berlusconi-get-elected-again-and-again-and-again/

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2 hours ago, RandallT said:

On the Dem side, I think a lot of young Bernie folks won't pull a lever for Hillary, from some of the anger I've seen. But then again, young people don't vote in huge numbers, I suppose. Maybe they're in better shape regarding a party fracture, but I see a big rift with the folks drifting leftward into socialist policies.

Agree with this. I think if it's Trump vs. Hillary, she needs the young vote that Bernie has to win. Bernie as VP?

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14 minutes ago, chspeed said:

Agree with this. I think if it's Trump vs. Hillary, she needs the young vote that Bernie has to win. Bernie as VP?

I don't he is going to fade and his supporters really don't have a second choice besides Clinton. They aren't anti Clinton as much as he is exciting and new. When it gets to one candidate (Clinton) they will coalesce.  

Dave :-)

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12 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

I don't he is going to fade and his supporters really don't have a second choice besides Clinton. They aren't anti Clinton as much as he is exciting and new. When it gets to one candidate (Clinton) they will coalesce.  

Pretty rare that you hear someone refer to a septuagenarian as "exciting and new."  Wait...was Bernie ever on an episode of the Love Boat?

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A university professor says the statistical model that has correctly predicted every presidential winner for the last 100 years except one indicates that Donald Trump will almost certainly become president if he wins the GOP nomination.

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University in New York, has created a statistical model for presidential elections using data such as candidates’ primary results.

The model shows Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton if she’s the Democratic nominee, and a 99 percent chance of trumping Bernie Sanders if he wins the nomination.

 

Looks like Trump has a pretty good chance against Hillary.  

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1976718-university-professor-says-statistical-model-shows-donald-trump-will-win-presidency-if-nominated/

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