Presidential Race 2016

[iacas]

48 minutes ago, rkim291968 said:

Now that we are down to the two candidates, Clinton and Trump, who will likely to win the 2016 general election?  Who will you vote for?

We aren't down to two candidates, and there are no VPs yet either, so until the conventions, I'm merging this thread back into the other one.

[sirhacksalot]

Johnson

[Chilli Dipper]

13 hours ago, rkim291968 said:

Trump rode the perfect wave.  There were just too many GOP candidates which helped Trump to latch on a movement.  Then, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, late night shows all gave Trump loads of free media time.   In case of Trump, even a bad press was a good press.   

Will Trump win the general election?   He would need another perfect wave.   I don't see that happening.   The field is down to two - Clinton & Trump.   Media will likely focus on the two on more even footing.   Clinton is a far more formidable foe than all other GOP candidates Trump faced.   

If Trump somehow is elected, it will be be because Hillary lost it more than he won it. There are really only two conditions in flux in this race: does the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary, and does a Republican Party weakened by a divisive primary struggle to build a united front behind Trump? If either of those things happen, Hillary wins; if both happen, Hillary wins with the largest share of the popular vote by a Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson.

I know that Trump supporters think Hillary will be an easy target once Donald starts slinging mud at her, but come on. The right has thrown every bold accusation and conspiracy theory they can think of at her for the last 25 years, and she's still standing tall. She's heard it all before, and so have we; nobody outside of the conservative media bubble bothers to listen anymore, because they've cried wolf on her so many times. Furthermore, those attacks would invite the comparison between Clinton, who has developed such a thick skin that she's unfazed by the most vile rumors about her, and Trump, who is so thin-skinned that he can't receive the smallest criticism without threatening to sue someone. Who are undecided voters going to see as a stronger leader?

[newtogolf]

18 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

If Trump somehow is elected, it will be be because Hillary lost it more than he won it. There are really only two conditions in flux in this race: does the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary, and does a Republican Party weakened by a divisive primary struggle to build a united front behind Trump? If either of those things happen, Hillary wins; if both happen, Hillary wins with the largest share of the popular vote by a Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson.

I know that Trump supporters think Hillary will be an easy target once Donald starts slinging mud at her, but come on. The right has thrown every bold accusation and conspiracy theory they can think of at her for the last 25 years, and she's still standing tall. She's heard it all before, and so have we; nobody outside of the conservative media bubble bothers to listen anymore, because they've cried wolf on her so many times. Furthermore, those attacks would invite the comparison between Clinton, who has developed such a thick skin that she's unfazed by the most vile rumors about her, and Trump, who is so thin-skinned that he can't receive the smallest criticism without threatening to sue someone. Who are undecided voters going to see as a stronger leader?

Politics and Trump aside, you really don't have an issue with Hillary's morals and ethics given how she handled Benghazi and then how she and the State Department tried to cover up her mistake, which included lying right to the faces of the victims families?  

As an American citizen you have no problem electing someone who used a personal e-mail server to conduct classified government business (the least damning) but then attempted to obstruct the investigation by deleting the entire contents of the server knowing that investigators were going to review it and has basically refused to cooperate with the FBI investigation?  

I'm not naive and I know most politicians are crooked but usually these types of scandals come out after the person is elected and we shake our heads and ask ourselves how we elected them into office.  In Hillary's case we know she's without conscience, willing to break the law to cover up her mistakes, is corrupt (Clinton Foundation), has disdain for our military and we have a chance to stop her from getting into office and all of you are still going to vote for her? 

I get the love for Bernie, he's a passionate man who thinks he has a solution to the counties problems and beyond being a bum for the first 40 years of his life appears to be a decent human being.  

[JxQx]

The third party candidates (Jill Stein and Gary Johnson) should be included on this vote option, If not now at least when all parties have their nomination.

[Braivo]

15 hours ago, rkim291968 said:

Now that we are down to the two candidates, Clinton and Trump, who will likely to win the 2016 general election?  Who will you vote for?

Trump!

49 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

If Trump somehow is elected, it will be be because Hillary lost it more than he won it. There are really only two conditions in flux in this race: does the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary, and does a Republican Party weakened by a divisive primary struggle to build a united front behind Trump? If either of those things happen, Hillary wins; if both happen, Hillary wins with the largest share of the popular vote by a Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson.

I know that Trump supporters think Hillary will be an easy target once Donald starts slinging mud at her, but come on. The right has thrown every bold accusation and conspiracy theory they can think of at her for the last 25 years, and she's still standing tall. She's heard it all before, and so have we; nobody outside of the conservative media bubble bothers to listen anymore, because they've cried wolf on her so many times. Furthermore, those attacks would invite the comparison between Clinton, who has developed such a thick skin that she's unfazed by the most vile rumors about her, and Trump, who is so thin-skinned that he can't receive the smallest criticism without threatening to sue someone. Who are undecided voters going to see as a stronger leader?

Hillary is playing right into Trump's hand. She has become obsessed with talking about him, and her attack ads on him sound more like ads FOR him. Meanwhile, Trump is courting Bernie supporters. 

[jbishop15]

3 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Trump!

Hillary is playing right into Trump's hand. She has become obsessed with talking about him, and her attack ads on him sound more like ads FOR him. Meanwhile, Trump is courting Bernie supporters. 

lol sure

[Chilli Dipper]

43 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

Politics and Trump aside, you really don't have an issue with Hillary's morals and ethics given how she handled Benghazi and then how she and the State Department tried to cover up her mistake, which included lying right to the faces of the victims families?  

As an American citizen you have no problem electing someone who used a personal e-mail server to conduct classified government business (the least damning) but then attempted to obstruct the investigation by deleting the entire contents of the server knowing that investigators were going to review it and has basically refused to cooperate with the FBI investigation?  

I'm not naive and I know most politicians are crooked but usually these types of scandals come out after the person is elected and we shake our heads and ask ourselves how we elected them into office.  In Hillary's case we know she's without conscience, willing to break the law to cover up her mistakes, is corrupt (Clinton Foundation), has disdain for our military and we have a chance to stop her from getting into office and all of you are still going to vote for her? 

I get the love for Bernie, he's a passionate man who thinks he has a solution to the counties problems and beyond being a bum for the first 40 years of his life appears to be a decent human being.  

I choose to believe the numerous Benghazi investigations that have all cleared Clinton of wrongdoing. Months of releases of Clinton's e-mails have yet to reveal that conservatives predicted, and her cooperation with authorities suggests she has nothing to hide. I make no case that Clinton is a perfect example of personal ethics, but the argument that her problems in that regard cancel out Trump's works both ways; Trump is the worst possible candidate to portray as the mark of integrity in comparison. Finally, she left the Secretary of State with 70 percent of Americans approving of her job, so people seem to like her well enough when she's actually working on policy.

[saevel25]

5 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

lol sure

He might try. The people who support Bernie are not moderate liberals. The only thing Trump is slightly liberal on is his drug policy.

From the big issues Bernie has stated and comparing them to Trump's website.

1. Single Payer Health Care, Trump want's private health care allowing to people buy across state lines.
2. Free College, Trump hasn't stated much on college tuition
3. Open to taxing the top bracket at 90%. Trump's max tax bracket is 25%.
4. Ban on Assault Weapons and Federal Background Check, Trump wants to allow people to own what ever weapon they want.

 

[Chilli Dipper]

11 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

He might try. The people who support Bernie are not moderate liberals. The only thing Trump is slightly liberal on is his drug policy.

From the big issues Bernie has stated and comparing them to Trump's website.

1. Single Payer Health Care, Trump want's private health care allowing to people buy across state lines.
2. Free College, Trump hasn't stated much on college tuition
3. Open to taxing the top bracket at 90%. Trump's max tax bracket is 25%.
4. Ban on Assault Weapons and Federal Background Check, Trump wants to allow people to own what ever weapon they want.

 

Trump supporters will counter that he's been to the left on all of those positions in the past, but that hardly matters. He's not for them now, and conservatives will turn their backs on him if he changes his mind again. Besides, Sanders supporters definitely don't approve of Trump's immigration platform, which is his bread and butter.

[newtogolf]

6 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

He might try. The people who support Bernie are not moderate liberals. The only thing Trump is slightly liberal on is his drug policy.

From the big issues Bernie has stated and comparing them to Trump's website.

1. Single Payer Health Care, Trump want's private health care allowing to people buy across state lines.
2. Free College, Trump hasn't stated much on college tuition
3. Open to taxing the top bracket at 90%. Trump's max tax bracket is 25%.
4. Ban on Assault Weapons and Federal Background Check, Trump wants to allow people to own what ever weapon they want.

 

In fairness I am not sure where Trump stands on guns and health care, he's flip flopped a few times.  

[Golfingdad]

55 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Meanwhile, Trump is courting Bernie supporters. 

 

52 minutes ago, jbishop15 said:

lol sure

I wouldn't rule anything out at this point. And I wonder if Hillary (assuming she's the nominee) could easily quash Trumps plans by choosing Bernie as a running mate?

26 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

The people who support Bernie are not moderate liberals.

I think there are plenty.  (I know of at least one for sure :P)

[iacas]

1 hour ago, Chilli Dipper said:

If Trump somehow is elected, it will be be because Hillary lost it more than he won it. There are really only two conditions in flux in this race: does the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary, and does a Republican Party weakened by a divisive primary struggle to build a united front behind Trump? If either of those things happen, Hillary wins; if both happen, Hillary wins with the largest share of the popular vote by a Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson.

I kinda get what you mean, but at the same time… the Republican race is over, while the Democrats are still duking it out.

Depending on how you define "divisive" the Democratic race to the nomination could be seen as the "more divisive" of the two.

I don't know much about politics. I do find the human interest angle interesting. And all I know is saying that the election will be an interesting one, and people writing off Trump are not learning much from recent history. Though some just seem to be doing it wishfully.

[phillyk]

Apparently there's going to be a Trump rally 45min north of where I live tomorrow... traffic is going to suck.  What's odd though, is that it's next to an extremely liberal city.  (I'm pretty sure the university I attended will be emptied to go protest the rally).  Sure, its actually located in a smaller town where there are conservatives, but I think the real motive is that it's 10min from the Canadian border.  Not sure why, but if it wasn't in his decision making process, he would chose to be near Seattle instead or Tacoma at least, there's not a high density of people around here...

Edited May 6, 2016 by phillyk

[Chilli Dipper]

42 minutes ago, iacas said:

I kinda get what you mean, but at the same time… the Republican race is over, while the Democrats are still duking it out.

Depending on how you define "divisive" the Democratic race to the nomination could be seen as the "more divisive" of the two.

I don't know much about politics. I do find the human interest angle interesting. And all I know is saying that the election will be an interesting one, and people writing off Trump are not learning much from recent history. Though some just seem to be doing it wishfully.

Recent history shows that Democrats had a primary that was as hotly-contested and divisive (and probably more so) eight years ago, and they no problems rallying behind the eventual nominee when November came around. This election isn't exactly the same as 2008, but it's reasonable to predict a similar outcome.

The main place where Hillary can get into trouble is if she takes the support of "very liberal" Democrats for granted, and makes too much of an effort to attract disaffected Republicans in the general campaign. Such a move would confirm the suspicions of Sanders supporters who fear she would revert to centrism and not protect her left flank; and selling herself hard to those who are uneasy about Trump, but think she's a huge bitch, could easily backfire.

[iacas]

6 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

Recent history shows that Democrats had a primary that was as hotly-contested and divisive (and probably more so) eight years ago, and they no problems rallying behind the eventual nominee when November came around. This election isn't exactly the same as 2008, but it's reasonable to predict a similar outcome.

I think comparing this election to almost any other previous one is folly.

This election is unlike any other. People keep trying to use the past to predict stuff, but there's never been a race, AFAIK, like this one.

[Golfingdad]

25 minutes ago, iacas said:

I think comparing this election to almost any other previous one is folly.

This election is unlike any other. People keep trying to use the past to predict stuff, but there's never been a race, AFAIK, like this one.

Agreed.

Here's an interesting article: http://www.vox.com/2016/5/5/11589262/2016-general-election-is-going-to-suck?utm_campaign=vox.social&utm_medium=social&utm_content=voxdotcom&utm_source=facebook

[Chilli Dipper]

32 minutes ago, iacas said:

I think comparing this election to almost any other previous one is folly.

This election is unlike any other. People keep trying to use the past to predict stuff, but there's never been a race, AFAIK, like this one.

1940 had a lot of parallels to the optics of this race. The Republicans nominated Wendell Willkie, a businessman with no political experience: he campaigned on FDR (who was running for a third term) not doing enough to alleviate the lingering effects of the Great Depression, and staying out of the war in Europe.

Willkie wasn't outside of the party mainstream in the way Trump is, though, and it's hard to picture Trump becoming Hillary's most vocal ally in a time of crisis the way Willkie was to FDR once our participation in WWII became unavoidable.