More Career Majors- Day, Rory, or Spieth?

[chspeed]

1 hour ago, Golfingdad said:

Since it's not yet listed, for those of us who don't have it memorized:

Rory McIlroy has 4 majors and just turned 27.

Jason Day has 1 major and is 28 1/2 years old.

Jordan Spieth has 2 majors and is a couple of months shy of 23.

I vote McIlroy.

Wow - forgot that McIlroy has 4 already! Can I change my answer?

Considering how hard it is to win even one major, that's an almost insurmountable advantage in the race.

[Golfingdad]

6 minutes ago, chspeed said:

Can I change my answer?

LOL ... actually it looks like, yes, you can.  Just click "show vote options" and it erases your previous vote and you can switch.  (I just voted for all three to test the theory ... but I made sure to end up back on McIlroy) 

[chspeed]

For fun, I decided to try to reach an answer based on probability. I started with the the betting odds of the "big three" at the majors in the past year. I've published those odds at the bottom.

Using those betting odds, I have calculated the expected number of majors to be won by each of these players during their careers.

Of course, I had to make a few assumptions and adjustments:

1. Each player will be a major contender only until they are 40. Statistically, this seems pretty sound considering the odds of winning after they're 40 are slim. (see my table in my previous post)

2. Each player will play: 4 majors a year until they're 30, 3 majors a year from age 31-35, and 2 majors in the final five years. I think this is realistic because of injury, qualifications, and lifestyle changes that may limit their schedules.

3. I am using the average betting odds for each player of winning a major in the past year. This works until they're 35, but is too optimistic for ages 36-40. So after 35, I've cut their odds in half (which is in keeping with the previously discussed odds of winning at certain ages). I am assuming that betting odds are a realistic representation of "actual" odds.

4. I've rounded majors up if over 0.5, down if less.

So, here are the projections:

Name (age)	Current	Until 30	31-35	36-40	Projected Majors Won
Rory (27)	4	1.88	1.88	0.63	9
Jason (28)	1	0.85	1.16	0.39	3
Jordan (22)	2	5.25	2.25	0.75	10

Discussion: Obviously, Jordan is helped by his odds of winning a major in the past year, while Jason is hurt both by his age and his lower betting odds. In the end, I think this is a believable, if optimistic, result. I'm also very happy I changed my vote from Jason to Rory!

Data: Published Betting Odds (src: http://golfodds.com/)

	2016	2015
	Masters	PGA	Open Ch.	US Open
Rory	1/8	1/12	N/A	1/6
Jason	2/13	1/12	1/25	1/30
Jordan	1/9	1/6	1/5	1/8

 

[saevel25]

12 minutes ago, chspeed said:

3. I am using the average betting odds for each player of winning a major in the past year. This works until they're 35, but is too optimistic for ages 36-40. So after 35, I've cut their odds in half (which is in keeping with the previously discussed odds of winning at certain ages). I am assuming that betting odds are a realistic representation of "actual" odds.

4. I've rounded majors up if over 0.5, down if less.

So, here are the projections:

Name (age)	Current	Until 30	31-35	36-40	Projected Majors Won
Rory (27)	4	1.88	1.88	0.63	9
Jason (28)	1	0.85	1.16	0.39	3
Jordan (22)	2	5.25	2.25	0.75	10

I would adjust your odds to be more current. Right now Jason is at a 14-15% rate to win the US Open. I can see that rate extending for the next two years. 

As of right now Spieth is 7/1 at the US Open. That is only about 12% odds. Let's say he stays at 10-12% till he's 30. He'll have about 30 more majors. At 10-12% he's at 3 major wins, not 5.25. 

 

[iacas]

I voted for Rory. He has a reasonably large lead.

[chspeed]

17 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I would adjust your odds to be more current. Right now Jason is at a 14-15% rate to win the US Open. I can see that rate extending for the next two years. 

As of right now Spieth is 7/1 at the US Open. That is only about 12% odds. Let's say he stays at 10-12% till he's 30. He'll have about 30 more majors. At 10-12% he's at 3 major wins, not 5.25. 

 

Fair enough, but I used an average, and current us open odds (which may change) would only move the needle a little. Of course, everything about these odds are very changeable, but we can only predict using what we know right now.

Edited May 17, 2016 by chspeed

[Hardspoon]

Rory has a two-major lead at this point, but in terms of age, Jordan has four-plus years to close that gap.  I would bet that Jordan wins at least two majors in the next four years.

That said, I voted for Rory, for two reasons: first, he's been around longer, with a proven track record; second, he is so explosive (I sometimes forget watching him play that he hits it basically as far as DJ) that you have to figure he can work the other stuff (putting woes) out and dominate.

 

 

[Scotsclaff]

I think Rory.

I don't think Spieth will win another.

[Broke100Once]

10 hours ago, chspeed said:

I think that's unlikely. If you look at the list of players who have more than 5, it's pretty short, only 13 golfers on it. Since 1960, only 7 have done it.

1	United States	Jack Nicklaus	1962–1986	6	4	3	5	18
2	United States	Tiger Woods	1997–2008	4	3	3	4	14
3	United States	Walter Hagen	1914–1929	0	2	4	5	11
4	United States	Ben Hogan	1946–1953	2	4	1	2	9
4	South Africa	Gary Player	1959–1978	3	1	3	2	9
6	United States	Tom Watson	1975–1983	2	1	5	0	8
7	United States	Gene Sarazen	1922–1935	1	2	1	3	7
7	United States	Arnold Palmer	1958–1964	4	1	2	0	7
7	United States	Sam Snead	1942–1954	3	0	1	3	7
7	United States	Bobby Jones	1923–1930	0	4	3	0	7
7	Jersey	Harry Vardon	1896–1914	0	1	6	0	7
12	United States	Lee Trevino	1968–1984	0	2	2	2	6
12	England	Nick Faldo	1987–1996	3	0	3	0	6

I actually think that seven guys getting there since 1960 is more of a sign that at least two of Spieth/Day/McIlroy will crack the five-major barrier.  (And if you count five majors exactly, this list is even longer with Phil, Seve and Peter Thomson.)  It's only been since 1960 that the idea of the "four majors" has really existed --- before that, it was common for most of the top U.S. players to skip the British or maybe even the PGA given the elongated format.  Likewise, top international players sometimes played only the British Open every year.  There is no doubt in my mind that if the 'top players play all four majors' mindset had been around since the 30's, obviously Hogan, Snead, Nelson, etc. would have way more major wins.

Then again, who knows.  Golf is such an unforgiving sport that for all we know, maybe NONE of these guys will ever win another major title.  Unlikely, sure, but not impossible.  Maybe they'll all win more majors but someone like, say, Martin Kaymer will end up with more than any of them.

[saevel25]

19 hours ago, chspeed said:

I think that's unlikely. If you look at the list of players who have more than 5, it's pretty short, only 13 golfers on it. Since 1960, only 7 have done it.fa

I just think they have show the consistent level of strokes gained in their long game to contend in any major over the next 5-6 years, more so with Spieth and Rory. There hasn't been many golfers between Tiger and Rory who have had such dominating long games on a consistent basis. 

[Groucho Valentine]

I would think you'd have to go with Speith because of that putter.

 

But lets face it, those three guys may never win another major. We cant tell the future. A lot of people figured Tiger would have 20 something majors by now and that never happened. 

[Ernest Jones]

I voted Rory. I just think his A game is better than anyone else's. Now if only he could find it again. 

Speith has a steadiness to his game that will certainly serve him well, but I don't his A game can hang with Rory's (or Day's for that matter), distance matters, especially over the long haul. 

As long as they all win more than Bubba, I'll be happy. 

[Chilli Dipper]

23 hours ago, iacas said:

I voted for Rory. He has a reasonably large lead.

Same here. It takes a very special player to win five or more majors, and Rory's at four already.

That said, I can see Rory being on the short end of any head-to-head battles between him and the other two.

[chspeed]

 

On 5/17/2016 at 11:48 PM, Broke100Once said:

I actually think that seven guys getting there since 1960 is more of a sign that at least two of Spieth/Day/McIlroy will crack the five-major barrier. 

After doing the math here, I agree.

[RichWW2]

I think Day is going to win more short term, but age will catch him before the other two.  Between Spieth and Rory I take Spieth because....Murica?

[Hardspoon]

On ‎5‎/‎17‎/‎2016 at 9:56 PM, Hardspoon said:

That said, I voted for Rory, for two reasons: first, he's been around longer, with a proven track record; second, he is so explosive that you have to figure he can work the other stuff (putting woes) out and dominate.

Rory won the Irish Open today with a 273-yard approach onto the 16th green, and a 252-yard approach (to two feet) on the 18th...just sayin'.

[gatsby47]

They could all win two more majors each be known as world class,  make the hall of fame and never come close to the list. Rory's closeness noted. After Tiger is put into the hall of fame, is there anyone truly hall of fame worthy sitting out there. Els and Mickleson already in. Some dubious honorees like Monty and Couples.  A long way to go for sure. But none of the current big names are there yet. Hope they all do and fight over every one.  Makes for exciting viewing

[atb5079]

On 6/16/2016 at 0:11 AM, gatsby47 said:

They could all win two more majors each be known as world class,  make the hall of fame and never come close to the list. Rory's closeness noted. After Tiger is put into the hall of fame, is there anyone truly hall of fame worthy sitting out there. Els and Mickleson already in. Some dubious honorees like Monty and Couples.  A long way to go for sure. But none of the current big names are there yet. Hope they all do and fight over every one.  Makes for exciting viewing

Goosen will get in. If Couples makes it than Furyk sure as hell deserves to.