What Would a 20.1 (see post #95) Index Shoot at a Local U.S. Open Qualifier Site?

[kpaulhus]

So with the recent threads about the US Open Local qualifying, and my own personal experience in a USGA qualifying round, my group text full of golfers is buzzing every day. Guys with + handicaps are not breaking 80, so for anyone who is sane that just magnifies how hard it really is.

I posted about the "pro" who shot 127. My friend who is a 20.1 index says he could break 127 on that course. He is clearly delusional because he doesn't understand how hard these courses are set up. The length is daunting. The rough is literally rough. He thinks he can manage his game to a sub 126 round.

Of course all of the trash talk as stemmed into a bet, one foot on the back of the furthest tee box (7000 yards so he still has a 200-400 yard advantage). In June or July when our rough is the thickets. Has to walk. No laser.

Its quite funny but he just doesn't understand. What are your thoughts?

[Shorty]

On these courses, many players who think they are a 20 index would struggle to reach most par fours in three shots even if their first two are the best they can do. They would also find that if the greens have serious contours and are fast, there are many 10 footers where the aim is to avoid three putts and the challenge for a downhill 3 footer is to have a shorter putt coming back if you miss.

The average player has no idea at all.

It's not so much theat they'd be racking up 12s and 14s on every second hole, which they probably wouldn't, but more the fact that it would be 7s and 8s on a lot of par 4s and 9s on par 5s where they can't even see how it happened - 300 yards from the green on a par 4 where they thought their 280 average drive (in actual fact 195) and then 5 to get down when they're 50 yards away when a shot that is their "drop and stop" on soft greens scuttles over the come back back and the chip they thought was going to end up next to the holes goes 20 feet past. And that's not even thinking about carries over gorse from trees and runs of holes with dams and creeks which affect each shot for 4 or five straight holes.

They reason they think they could break 120 is because they think they can break 90 when in fact they can't.

They think that every par 5 you play is reachable in two and they think every course has reachable par 4s. They don't realise that on a lot of courses they would hit driver on perhaps three of the par 3s and end up in bunkers and walk off with 8 before they've even blinked.

Try telling them, though. I mean.....there are guys on this site who think their "average" shot ends up 10 feet from the hole from 120 yards. (eye-roll emoji)

 

Edited May 16, 2017 by Shorty

[Hategolf]

I don't have an answer to your questions but IMO the challenge for a high handicapper in a very difficult course other than the obvious length is the lie angle on the fairways. Hitting the green from 185 yrds with the ball above or below your feet for a HH is very very difficult, if you hit the green in most approach shots a HH could probably not be able to keep it from rolling out, and finally a HH is most likely going to 3 putt in most holes.   

[David in FL]

Put me down for a strong, it depends...

Just to play with some numbers.  If the CR/slope is 75/145, shooting 127 results in a differential of 40.5.    

I'm sure they vary, but the 3 local qualifiers that I've attended as a spectator over the past couple of years were set up as very long, but little else was done to make them "Open tough".  Just good courses stretched about as far as they could.

With that type of setup, I think an honest 20 hcp gets around in less than 120 assuming there aren't any holes that are completely unplayable due to a forced carry with no options.  If they were to go nuts with the setup, all bets are off, but remember, the local qualifiers are simple one day tournaments that a course isn't necessarily going to go crazy over, when they also have every day play to contend with, before and after.

I haven't attended a sectional qualifier, but I could understand a little different mindset there.  And again, some local qualifiers may go to the extreme, but I just haven't seen that....

 

Edited May 16, 2017 by David in FL

[dbuck]

I am struggling to play to my 15 right now; most of us do. Mine was set from the regular tees, as are most high handicaps. It is not just the distance, it is what that distance brings into play.

Considering 3 putts on every hole, and at least an extra shot to reach every green, my "perfect" score on such a course would be 108 with no "mistakes". Last time I played, I made a few mistakes.

[Papa Steve 55]

There was a short lived special after the US open a few years back with different level golfers at the US open course. IIRC the single digit was the only one to break 100.

I think the networks over estimated how much we cared about watching golfers we don't know struggle their way around a course. 

[Shorty]

The average HH player in the U.S. (from what I understand) chooses the tees he plays from, which means he thinks that par 4s are reachable in 2 and par 5s are reachable in 2 or 3. What he doesn't realise is that a lot of par 4s on tough courses from the back tees are longer and tougher than the average par 5s he plays.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Shorty

[No Mulligans]

Torrey South is the course I'm familiar with.  Last I played there I hit a 93 from the Green tees 73.3/133, that equaled a differential of 16.9.  The back tees are 78.1/144 so the extra distance would add 5 strokes for the rating 6 strokes for the slope.  So now I'm at 93 + 5 + 6 = 104 due to the extra length and slope.

Now assume I miss the fairway 50% of the time and since the rough is "rough" I can't do much but chop myself out.  I'll add another .5 strokes for each time I get in the rough (.5 harder than getting out of the shorter rough when I played, the rough was still high enough when I played that you could lose your ball in it).  (93 score minus 36 putts) times .5 times .5 strokes per incident= 14 additional strokes because of the rough.

So 104 +14 = 128...

Now add a bunch of putts because of hole placement and green speed, ah say 10.  128 + 10 = 138

I predict I could shoot a 138.   And, I'm not a 20 HI.

Edited May 16, 2017 by No Mulligans

[bkuehn1952]

I will preface this with the admission that I have never played in a Local Qualifier for the US Open.  

I looked up a typical venue, Jackson Country Club (TN). Their tips are 6,783 yards (72.9/128).  The site in MI, Muskegon Country Club, is fairly similar.

This makes sense. These are qualifiers, not the US Open. The venue in CO was really long, but the elevation has a lot to do with that.  The slope for the back tees is listed at 129 so the qualifier setup probably was near that number.

Edited May 16, 2017 by bkuehn1952
Typo

[dennyjones]

49 minutes ago, bkuehn1952 said:

Their tips are 6,783 yards (72.9/128)

The bogie rating for this course is about 97.     (128/5.381 + 72.9)  I can understand why most amateurs think they could beat 127.   But...most amateurs don't play by the rules.    

[bkuehn1952]

4 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

The bogie rating for this course is about 97.     (128/5.381 + 72.9)  I can understand why most amateurs think they could beat 127.   But...most amateurs don't play by the rules.    

That is true.  But if we assume a legit 20.1 who arrived at that index following the Rules and not too distance challenged, he/she might put up a decent score 1 out of 5 rounds.

[David in FL]

6 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

The bogie rating for this course is about 97.     (128/5.381 + 72.9)  I can understand why most amateurs think they could beat 127.   But...most amateurs don't play by the rules.    

True, but this supposes a valid 20.1 handicap.  

30 strokes over the bogie rating? I've got to believe so, but again, absent something that renders the course unplayable for the high handicapper.

[freshmanUTA]

I honestly think that if you set up the course in tournament conditions, but just didn't tell the 20.1 indexer that it was in tournament conditions... They'd probably shoot around 100, and just chalk it down to a 'bad day'. But if it was in an actual tournament with the pressure, then I don't think they'd come close to a 127. For a pro, I think 127 is just complete lack of focus or effort. I mean come on, what is that... 53-55 strokes over par? That's basically triple bogey every hole. Either, you really had a crappy day striking the ball, or you mentally gave up and stopped trying. I know the whole "these guys are good" saying, but if you gave a 20.1 index a shot to play there, they'd probably play as conservative as possible because they know that they're not going to have a chance to win, and if they didn't  play conservative they wouldn't even be able to get the balls to stick to the green. Of course, some 20.1 indexes are that way because they shank and top balls every hole in which case, I'd think they wouldn't break 130.

[Aguirre]

What's that famous quote, I believe from Bobby Jones about two types of golf? And one of them is tournament golf. That seems to be important here. Put a HH in a tournament setting and they'll probably melt. It's a thoroughly new experience. 

I remember a few years ago at Bethpage Ben Roethlisberger and a couple of other athlete celebs played the course in tournament conditions a week or two before the Open. I think Ben shot like 85. But put him out there in the actual tournament?

Remember John Smoltz got an exemption on the buy.com tour? He promptly shot like 85-87 and missed the cut. I had him interviewed afterward and he was confused about how he had played so poorly. Well, it wasn't at your club championship or having a Sunday morning nassau. 

So I think I HH could be 127 on the course, but if you make it the actual qualifying round, that probability changes.

Edited May 17, 2017 by Aguirre

[Hardspoon]

2 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

I posted about the "pro" who shot 127. My friend who is a 20.1 index says he could break 127 on that course. He is clearly delusional because he doesn't understand how hard these courses are set up. The length is daunting. The rough is literally rough. He thinks he can manage his game to a sub 126 round.

Its quite funny but he just doesn't understand. What are your thoughts?

I guess I'm delusional too, then.    I'm a 21.1 cap, and if you asked me to place a bet on either side, I'd bet I could break 127 on that course.  I don't fall victim to any of the specific delusions that @Shorty describes above, but it's just hard to imagine averaging above triple bogey.

I wouldn't feel confident about the bet, by any means, but I'd take the under if forced to bet, because my general sense is:

2 hours ago, David in FL said:

Just to play with some numbers.  If the CR/slope is 75/145, shooting 127 results in a differential of 40.5.    

I'm sure they vary, but the 3 local qualifiers that I've attended as a spectator over the past couple of years were set up as very long, but little else was done to make them "Open tough".  Just good courses stretched about as far as they could.

With that type of setup, I think an honest 20 hcp gets around in less than 120 assuming there aren't any holes that are completely unplayable due to a forced carry with no options.  If they were to go nuts with the setup, all bets are off, but remember, the local qualifiers are simple one day tournaments that a course isn't necessarily going to go crazy over, when they also have every day play to contend with, before and after.

That bolded part is the big caveat.  My driver swing speed is 95-100mph, so I'm looking at 230 yards carry as an absolute MAX.  If there are three or four holes where I need to hit a perfect drive just to carry a hazard, it's all over.

[saevel25]

3 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

I posted about the "pro" who shot 127. My friend who is a 20.1 index says he could break 127 on that course. He is clearly delusional because he doesn't understand how hard these courses are set up. The length is daunting. The rough is literally rough. He thinks he can manage his game to a sub 126 round.

So this guy has to average 7 strokes a hole to hit 126. Lets say he has 40 putts. That means he needs to have 86 strokes to cover, lets say 7200 yards. That is 84 yards per stroke. So, if he took his 100 yard club on every shot. Given if there is any force carries off the tee the strategy changes. Breaking 126 is reasonable if you are really dedicated about it. 

 

[Jack Watson]

127 is a lot of strokes to play with.  But still.  You're talking 20 handi here.  Nothing in the game can be counted on.  40 putts is probably too few if the greens are like what I have seen on a 'real course'. That's two putting everything with four three putts?  I dunno I've seen a lot of situations where the first putt for the twenty will end up 20 yards or more from the green If above the hole.  I doubt the 20 could do it. 

[saevel25]

3 minutes ago, Jack Watson said:

127 is a lot of strokes to play with.  But still.  You're talking 20 handi here.  Nothing in the game can be counted on.  40 putts is probably too few if the greens are like what I have seen on a 'real course'. That's two putting everything with four three putts?  I dunno I've seen a lot of situations where the first putt for the twenty will end up 20 yards or more from the green If above the hole.  I doubt the 20 could do it. 

I've seen some 20 handicap golfers have a decent putting game as well. It just depends.