JB Holmes - Strategy on 18 at Torrey Pines

[NM Golf]

12 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

In my opinion he made the right decision just had poor execution. He could have had a putt but a putt from back right has about zero chance. When I was watching it though I saw a lot of people almost holing that 100 yard shot out. The chip shots and putts I saw were not getting that close. He gave himself the best chance to make eagle and not cost himself a ton of money.

Just poor execution? His layup was garbage, but he hit a good third shot and made birdie. In what world does laying up and making birdie poor execution? If you lay up on a par 5 that is saying "I am playing for 4." No one lays up on a par five and says, "Darn, I was trying to make an eagle." 

[MuniGrit]

You were never going to chip in from behind the green unless you Kisner'd the flag. In my opinion he made the right decision. It's my opinion. One thing I notice on here is the OP loves to start a thread asking what's everyone's thought but it's more for him to argue. How many long putts and chip in for eagle were made on that hole yesterday? Let's see what the stats say since we use stats as arguments around here. This isn't about any 100 yard shot vs a 60 yard putt, on that hole you have a huge back stop.

1 hour ago, NM Golf said:

Just poor execution? His layup was garbage, but he hit a good third shot and made birdie. In what world does laying up and making birdie poor execution? If you lay up on a par 5 that is saying "I am playing for 4." No one lays up on a par five and says, "Darn, I was trying to make an eagle." 

I don't think I need to explain why laying up in the rough when you need spin to utilize the backstop.

[iacas]

@MuniGrit, you don’t just get to make declarative statements without evidence.

The odds were higher from greenside than from 100 yards out.

Also, I didn’t ask for opinions in the OP.

[Golfingdad]

34 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

How many long putts and chip in for eagle were made on that hole yesterday?

I already posted the video from last year with Rahm.  Yesterday, Justin Rose made the identical putt while playing with Jason Day (albeit for birdie but that's not really relevant).  If you have access to all of the tournament archives over the years, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you will find a plethora of putts made on that hole from various parts of the green and fringe and a handful of pitches and chips going in as well.  Hole outs from the fairway, on the other hand, are going to be few and far between.  The closest I remember to that happening was Mickelson a few years back.

His chances of making eagle from around the green are exponentially better than from 100 yards out in the fairway.

[MuniGrit]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

@MuniGrit, you don’t just get to make declarative statements without evidence.

The odds were higher from greenside than from 100 yards out.

Also, I didn’t ask for opinions in the OP.

Do you ever remember anyone chipping in from behind that green? I don't believe I have seen it. I honestly think he wanted to go but the wind was blowing really hard and he was in between clubs. Even Noren switched to 3 wood off the tee in the playoff to get out of the in between club zone. It is what it is, he didn't make eagle but he did create some enemies.

[iacas]

2 hours ago, MuniGrit said:

Do you ever remember anyone chipping in from behind that green? I don't believe I have seen it. I honestly think he wanted to go but the wind was blowing really hard and he was in between clubs.

It was downwind and right to left, they said. JB could have gotten there.

[BreaksLeft]

No excuse for taking so long.  None.  If the current rules don't allow for a penalty, change the rules.

Was the layup the right move?  Only if he was playing to maximize cash.  If so, I have no problem with that.  Sad that he could not just acknowledge that simple, obvious fact.

I'm sure that he has holed out a few times in his life from 100 yards.  But even as an accomplished pro, how many times?  Ten?  What's your best guess?

On the basis of absolutely no data, I an very confident that he has hit the green from that spot many, many (many) more times  than a layup followed by a holed wedge and could have had a much higher percentage putt.  Or, plenty of time, knocked it in the lake.  But a holed wedge from 100 yards a percentage play?  Please.

He was playing for the highest runner up position.  Again, no problem.  Just say so.  Playing to win is a lie.

[Golfingdad]

3 hours ago, BreaksLeft said:

He was playing for the highest runner up position.  Again, no problem.  Just say so.  Playing to win is a lie.

Others have mentioned this but when you break it down, it doesn't hold water.  Worst-case scenario if he hits it in the water is a bogey, and best case if he lays up is what happened, a birdie.   He finished solo 3rd, and a par would have put him at T3, a bogey at solo 4th.  The difference between solo 3rd and 4th was about 60k, ~330k vs. ~270k.  The guys at T2 made ~650k and Day made 1.2mil.  Nobody on the PGA Tour is throwing away a chance at 1.2mil for an extra 30 or 60 thousand.  Heck, even I wouldn't make that decision and 60k is worth a heck of a lot more to me than it is to somebody like Holmes, who has won 4 times on tour and made multiple millions yearly for awhile now.

It's much easier than that ... it's an Occam's Razor situation.  PGA Tour players are insanely talented but not always too bright.  They do things like lay up to their favorite yardages instead of getting closer to the hole, they pull the flag out unnecessarily when off the green, and a perfect example because Holmes does it ... they plumb bob their putts.

Make no mistake, Holmes was trying to win the tournament ... he just made a really, really dumb decision.

[saevel25]

Maybe Holmes had some risk aversion going on. Maybe the underlying reason was that he was fearful of not having a shot for eagle at all, instead of giving himself the opportunity for the best shot at eagle.

From 225-250 yards he averages 48'9" in 2017. The 18th green is basically a rectangle in shape that is 88 FT wide and 71 FT deep.

Here is a 48'9" radius circle overlaid the 18th green at Torrey Pines.

Doing a bit of math,

He would average 22% in the rough, and 78% on the green. Again, the shot zone is probably more of an ellipse than a circle. Maybe that adds in a few percentage points for the bunker, and takes away a few percentage points for the rough.

If I go to him that day and I tell him, if you hit an average shot you will hit this green 78% of the time, and not end up in the water. Do you think he would go for it?

[iacas]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

From 225-250 yards he averages 48'9" in 2017. The 18th green is basically a rectangle in shape that is 88 FT wide and 71 FT deep.

Here is a 48'9" radius circle overlaid the 18th green at Torrey Pines.

Matt, I like what you're saying, but that's an average. For every shot from that range he gets to 25', one goes to 71 feet. It's not quite that simple either, because as you noted it's likely not a circle, it's likely not all with balls landing on the green (some will land in the rough and barely bounce, some will land on the fairway, some land on the greens and shoot over the back… and some other factors.

But all of that was still manageable - he just has to err a bit long. Which makes sense, given the pond.

But were I his caddie, I'd have pressed for him to go for it until I got to the point where it was obvious I'd either be fired if I kept going, or he was just super nervous about hitting that shot and so I'd have to just give up.

[Moxley]

8 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

Others have mentioned this but when you break it down, it doesn't hold water.  Worst-case scenario if he hits it in the water is a bogey, and best case if he lays up is what happened, a birdie.   He finished solo 3rd, and a par would have put him at T3, a bogey at solo 4th.  The difference between solo 3rd and 4th was about 60k, ~330k vs. ~270k.  The guys at T2 made ~650k and Day made 1.2mil.  Nobody on the PGA Tour is throwing away a chance at 1.2mil for an extra 30 or 60 thousand.  Heck, even I wouldn't make that decision and 60k is worth a heck of a lot more to me than it is to somebody like Holmes, who has won 4 times on tour and made multiple millions yearly for awhile now.

It's much easier than that ... it's an Occam's Razor situation.  PGA Tour players are insanely talented but not always too bright.  They do things like lay up to their favorite yardages instead of getting closer to the hole, they pull the flag out unnecessarily when off the green, and a perfect example because Holmes does it ... they plumb bob their putts.

Make no mistake, Holmes was trying to win the tournament ... he just made a really, really dumb decision.

 

I agree with most of this, although I think he got in 2 minds. He wasn't playing for money, because, as above, the risk/reward points overwhelmingly towards going for it and risking the water, but it  also seems implausible that at the moment he decided to layup, he was still going for the win. 

I think he started out with the intention to win, deliberated for a long time before deciding he didn't think he could do it, and then forgot to calculate what his best move financially was and just (wrongly!) assumed it was to lay up. 

 

 

[jamo]

18 hours ago, MuniGrit said:

In my opinion he made the right decision just had poor execution. He could have had a putt but a putt from back right has about zero chance. When I was watching it though I saw a lot of people almost holing that 100 yard shot out. The chip shots and putts I saw were not getting that close. He gave himself the best chance to make eagle and not cost himself a ton of money.

I agree had executed poorly, but only because his decision made it such that anything short of holing out from 100 yards has to be considered "executing poorly."

[rehmwa]

10 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

He finished solo 3rd, and a par would have put him at T3, a bogey at solo 4th. 

Everyone forgets poor Ryan Palmer just because he didn't play 6 playoff holes.....

 

[tdiii]

Methinks this is after the fact justification for making a play that ensured he didn't lose cash.

It was a no brainer to go for the green in 2 if you want a chance to win.  I don't need to look up the stats to know that you have a better chance to make a putt or chip in then hit a 100 yard iron shot.  How many people holed out for eagle on Sunday on 18? 

 

[klineka]

13 minutes ago, tdiii said:

How many people holed out for eagle on Sunday on 18? 

The same number of people that putted and/or chipped in for eagle on 18.

0.

 To clarify, I agree with you, but in purely answering your question, nobody made an eagle putt or chip either

Edited January 30, 2018 by klineka

[tdiii]

3 minutes ago, klineka said:

The same number of people that putted and/or chipped in for eagle on 18.

0.

 To clarify, I agree with you, but in purely answering your question, nobody made an eagle putt or chip either

Fair enough.  How many people made eagle during the tournament on 18 via chipping or putting vs. holing out? 

[iacas]

1 minute ago, tdiii said:

Fair enough.  How many people made eagle during the tournament on 18 via chipping or putting vs. holing out? 

It doesn't matter that much, because it's a small sample size either way you look at it.

The odds were better of holing his third if his third was played from on or near the green than 100 yards out.

[klineka]

1 minute ago, tdiii said:

Fair enough.  How many people made eagle during the tournament on 18 via chipping or putting vs. holing out? 

According to the course stats section from ESPN, there were 0 eagles made on 18 on the south course during the entire tournament

http://www.espn.com/golf/leaderboard?tournamentId=3746