Jump to content
iacas

Rolling Balls Yield More Aces

Ace Theory  

37 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you agree or like my friend’s theory of aces?

    • Yes
      32
    • No
      5


64 posts in this topic Last Reply

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, Jeremie Boop said:

What in the world are you talking about..... The more variables introduced the more luck involved. 

No issues, JB.  It came across that way.  Take from my post that I disagree, I don't think the level of luck involved is increased at all by those factors since the luck can be good or bad so it balances out.  Simply stated - you get your shot dispersion (that's under you control) to get it near, the rest is luck - whether rolling or not.  And rolling increases the chance of the ball intercepting the hole.

Edited by rehmwa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Want to hide this ad? Register for free today!

11 hours ago, iacas said:

A friend of mine has a theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one because their ball rolls far and thus has a higher chance of striking the flagstick or running across the hole than a better player who flies the ball to the hole, hops it once or twice, and then the ball quickly comes to a stop.

He says this explains why so many poorer players have so many holes in one. That and they always aim at the hole. ;-) I think his idea has some merit. Rolling covers more ground.

What do you think?

I mis-understood at first... but reading the thread, I realized you meant "a theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one on balls hit close to the hole"...so I voted "yes".

I definitely think that if you took some number of shots heading exactly towards the hole, half on a high trajectory and half rolling, more of the rolling balls will end up going in.

I don't the difference is great enough to explain the perceived variance though; I think that is simply a result of there being more poorer players than good ones (as @colin007 mentioned), and the effect of remembering when a terrible golfer has one but not when someone you'd expect to does.  For example, I know another high handicapper like me who I remember has a HIO, because I remember the story...but, thinking right now of the four best golfers I know, I couldn't tell you whether three of them have one or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I agree. I have a friend who shoots in the 120's and has 3, 2 of them were short of the green and rolled in. The other hit far right side of the green and track a good 40' to the hole. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/10/2018 at 9:27 AM, saevel25 said:

I wonder how many hole in ones on the PGA Tour are the ball rolling in versus the ones that hop in or slam dunk.

I think a ball rolling has a higher chance of going in. Its probably not moving as fast as a ball that bounced. If a ball bounces into the flag, it probably has a higher chance of being deflected versus being helped if the ball is rolling. I vote yes.

I was thinking this as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I agree with the premise that the rolling ball has a better chance of going in the hole. I agree that higher handicap players are more likely to hit a rolling ball, and for balls that go on the green in the vicinity of the hole have a higher chance of going in.

However, I voted no, because the first sentence says ".....theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one because ...."  Thus, I interpret the paragraph as being a theory that higher handicappers are almost more likely to get a hole-in one, and this is why. I don't think they are more likely to get a hole in one, because their (our) balls are less likely to be on the green at all, much less in the vicinity of the hole.

If I am misinterpreting the paragraph, and it really means, " if a high handicapper's ball reaches the green, it is more likely to go in because it is rolling, " then I would agree.

For the record, my current handicap is 14.4, close to where it has been for most of my golfing life. I have made one hole -in-one. It is unofficial, because while my wife was riding with me, she was not playing and therefore not an official witness. It was about a 110 yards, and I hit a pitching wedge. I can't say if I jarred it or it rolled in, because it was a blind tee. I hit what felt like a good shot and saw it fly straight toward the hole. When I got there, I was pissed because the ball did not appear to be on the green. I looked all around and in the rough beyond,  before finally finding the ball in the hole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

1 hour ago, dbuck said:

However, I voted no,

You didn’t read that as it was written. The word you seem to have given almost no weight to is “almost.”

I’ve clarified this now multiple times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Never thought of this before, but I voted Yes. I usually leave my approach shots short, that's why I switched back to a 2-pcs ball, because it will release forward a few feet after landing, and sometimes I can trundle on up to the green.

Last summer I narrowly missed a hole in one on a 156 yard Par 3. The ball landed a few feet short of the pin and rolled straight to pin before lipping  around and out and giving me a one foot birdie. I know that it lipped out because I watched it change direction 90 degrees. Point being, the ball released forward.

If I think about how many times I've holed out my chip shot with a 9-iron, just keeping the ball low, it makes perfect sense. Get the ball down on the green, rolling like a putt, and good things can happen.

Going forward is easier than rolling back.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I believe your friend is correct about a rolling ball having a better chance to go in the hole. I had an ace in May of 2005 on a downhill hole playing about 175 yards. The ball landed about 10 feet short of the hole, hopped forward and barely trickled into the hole. Since then I have had three other close calls. One hit the flag three feet above the green and dropped in front of the hole and rolled a few feet away. Another hit a foot or so in front of the pin, skipped into the pin and spun off to the right. Earlier this year I was playing alone and hit a shot that I thought was going right at the flag. I started yelling "do not go in the hole!" The impact was about ten inches right of the cup, it pitched forward about two feet and spun back to within 4 or 5 inches! I'd certainly like to get another Ace, but not without witnesses!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notice how close he hit the ball sometimes, but because the ball didn't roll very far… it had less chance of going in.

He probably would have had more success with a back pin, landing the ball short, and letting it roll up to the hole.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

My 11 year old daughter this year in August got a H.I.O. 135 yards with a 3-wood with about 20' of roll. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have played with a guy at an executive course (has 1 par 4). He is 84 years only and started playing in his 60’s. He hits driver or 3w off the tee for even a 100 yard hole. He had 8 aces as of last year and when I played with him this year he was up to 9 meaning he got one as an 84 year old. He probably cards a 36 or more on this 28 par course. I have yet to have an ace in my life except I did knock one in from 135 yards on a mulligan.

He has a pull/fade ball flight that carries maybe 100 yards. Most of his shots land in front of the green, bounce on and then roll front to back. Rarely does the ball hold the green. I usually get 0 to 8 yards of roll depending on firmness and club used. A lot of the older guys have multiple aces and it is because then get a lot of roll (and they play about every day).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

On 7/10/2018 at 8:47 AM, iacas said:

A friend of mine has a theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one because their ball rolls far and thus has a higher chance of striking the flagstick or running across the hole than a better player who flies the ball to the hole, hops it once or twice, and then the ball quickly comes to a stop.

He says this explains why so many poorer players have so many holes in one. That and they always aim at the hole. ;-) I think his idea has some merit. Rolling covers more ground.

What do you think?

Totally disagree.  And the proof for me is that pros routinely have many holes-in-one.  Art Wall had 40 holes-in-one.  Tiger has had 18 holes-in-one.  And the list goes on and on.  Better players routinely have multiple holes-in-one.  Another thing:  The better players' balls ALSO roll when they hit the green.  They don't just plug.  The better plays aims for the hole.  The hacker aims for the green.  iacas, if your friend was watching a high handicapper playing a low handicapper, would he really put his money on the low handicapper getting a hole-in-one before the pro?  What a bad bet that would be.

Well, that's what I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Herkimer said:

Totally disagree.  And the proof for me is that pros routinely have many holes-in-one.

They're better, and they play a lot more golf.

But among average golfers, there are what I think a surprising number of higher handicap golfers with 3, 4, 5+ holes in one, and a surprising number of lower handicap golfers with 0 or 1 only.

2 hours ago, Herkimer said:

Another thing:  The better players' balls ALSO roll when they hit the green. They don't just plug.

They often don't roll nearly as far, no.

2 hours ago, Herkimer said:

The better plays aims for the hole. The hacker aims for the green.

Ha, actually better players often aim toward the safe side of the hole, while a lot of bogey golfers always aim at the flag. I think you'd be surprised by this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

i'm sure you've seen the Par 3 tournament at The Masters every year on Wednesday.  I've seen quite a number of holes-in-one there.  In fact, Spieth got up and got a hole-in-one.  Fowler got up next and also put it in the hole.  And so many others who come so close.  Please don't try to convince me that high handicappers would even come close.  (I did see an amateur get a hole-in-one there.  It was Jack's grandson, who did it last April.  I never saw Jack so excited and with tears in his eyes.  It was quite a moment.  And, by the way, his grandson swings like a pro.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Herkimer said:

i'm sure you've seen the Par 3 tournament at The Masters every year on Wednesday.  I've seen quite a number of holes-in-one there.

C'mon man. The holes there are set up for them. As you noted… Jack Nicklaus's grandson made an ace there last year despite "caddying" for the first several holes and making the ace without warming up.

Some buddies played the course (in a threesome) twice last year or the year before that and between them they had three aces. They're ~9 handicaps.

A rolling ball covers more ground. That can make up for a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

iacas, maybe this will change your mind: 

Occasionally special events host a hole in one contest, where prizes as expensive as a new car, or cash awards sometimes reaching $4 million are offered if a contestant records a hole in one. Usually such expensive prizes are backed by an insurance company who offers prize indemnification services.  Actuaries at such companies have calculated the chance of an average golfer making a hole in one at approximately 12,500 to 1, and the odds of a tour professional at 2,500 to 1

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hole_in_one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Herkimer said:

Actuaries at such companies have calculated the chance of an average golfer making a hole in one at approximately 12,500 to 1, and the odds of a tour professional at 2,500 to 1

With the assumption that most of those hole-in-one challenges require the hole to be over a certain length.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



  • Want to join this community?

    We'd love to have you!

    Sign Up
  • 2018 TST Partners

    PING Golf
    FlightScope Mevo
    More to come…
  • Posts

    • From an aesthetic pov relative to others the look of the swing, at least to me, it looks the smoothest compared to long hitters. Kind of like in tennis there are some players that underachieve but I will go out of my way to watch them play because their groundstrokes is like art in motion. Look at that lead wrist. Bow city.  
    • Golf Hitting mats - turf compromise Lots of discussions regarding hitting off mats vs turf. Many believe hitting off mats gives false feedback owing to bounce off the mat among other things. I have been using mats for years with little ill effects with the caveat that it sometimes requires a little adjustment going from mat to the course. My backyard consists of artificial turf that is very close to natural grass and many have been hard pressed to tell the difference. (photos above earlier in the thread showing my labor and results). I have lately been hitting off my "turf" with good results, but it does leave a little green residue on the soles of clubs, nothing a little squirt of simple green or fabulouso doesn't take care of.  As far as damage to the turf, I have not really seen any, but not enough repetition to make a final judgement. I will say, I can tell no "feel" difference between my turf and the real thing.  
    • Hit some balls today. Wasn't working on anything in particular, just focused on good (not thinned, toed, etc.) contact. Mixed results. Decided to do the old gate drill with some twigs I happened to have laying around and was hitting the ball well every time. Odd. I didn't change any feels or anything. It was just hit ball, try not to hit sticks. Anyway, videos:   It wasn't nearly nice enough outside to practice with no jacket. I took it off for the camera like a pro 
    • When out traveling around in our rv, I tend to focus on golf. Playing courses where I find them. My wife is more of a sightseeing, photo buff. However, she does play her own version of the golf game, and of course I own a camera too.  On our trips we meet new folks all the time. Most are met when we pull into RV court, we have neighbors. I meet new folks at the golf course, and smetimes those golfers are fellow RVers Such was the case yesterday. My neighbor saw me cleaning my clubs, and came over to chat about golf equipment and the game in general.  At one time he was an avid golfer. Said he never made it to a low, single digit handicap, but developed a respectful love of the game.  His playing days are now over due physical issues due to diabetes.  As we were talking, he asked me how old my clubs were. I told him this particular set of irons were around 20 odd years old. He remarked that I had taken good care of them. At that point he asked me if I knew anyone who could use an old set of Pings, as he no longer had any use for them. I told him not off hand, but I generally donate older golf equipment to the juvenile diabetes foundation. He said good deal and gave his set of Pings. He went on to tell me he got these Ping irons used, 40 some years ago. I told him I would give them to the JDF in his name. We ended our conversation with a hand shake, and a ttyl. When I finished cleaning my clubs, I check out his bag of clubs. Turns out these irons are Karsten 1 Irons. Although they look well used, these are some what of a rare set of irons. I figured I better go tell him what he was giving away, that he might want to do something else with them on his own. He told me to keep them, and to find them a good home. His wife even expressed to me, her agreement with his wishes.  I exchanged phone numbers, and emails with him. Told him I would let him know about his clubs.  Heading back to my own digs, I kind felt sorry for this man. Giving up his golf clubs, since he can no longer use them. Pretty tough decision on his part.   
    • Keys 1 and 4. Hips back head steady, arms higher from 2. Old school lift lead foot push down. A little less old man finish looking.  
  • TST Blog Entries

  • Blog Entries

  • Today's Birthdays

    1. Pat
      Pat
      (54 years old)
    2. shep3368
      shep3368
      (36 years old)
    3. trebor549
      trebor549
      (71 years old)

×

Important Information

Welcome to TST! Signing up is free, and you'll see fewer ads and can talk with fellow golf enthusiasts! By using TST, you agree to our Terms of Use, our Privacy Policy, and our Guidelines.

The popup will be closed in 10 seconds...