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iacas

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On 12/10/2021 at 8:18 PM, iacas said:

You can Google stuff you know. 🙂

 


The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that of the 43 cases attributed to the Omicron variant, 34 people had been fully vaccinated.

Six hours ago. 43 cases only, so a small sample size.

Bear in mind also that the US is (at least as I understand it), not routinely testing for Omicron. To the extent that they are testing for it, they are likely doing so in the more interesting cases - those being breakthrough cases. I would be willing to bet that a large majority of the people being tested specifically for Omicron are vaccinated. Much higher than the vaccinated percentage would imply.

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1 hour ago, Ty_Webb said:

Bear in mind also that the US is (at least as I understand it), not routinely testing for Omicron. To the extent that they are testing for it, they are likely doing so in the more interesting cases - those being breakthrough cases. I would be willing to bet that a large majority of the people being tested specifically for Omicron are vaccinated. Much higher than the vaccinated percentage would imply.

Yeah, you have to be careful with statistics like this.

In a town with 95 vaccinated people and 5 unvaccinated people, if there are 25 cases of COVID, all five of the unvaccinated people and 20 of the 95 unvaccinated people, you could say "80% of our cases are vaccinated people!" and be telling the truth.

 

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4 minutes ago, iacas said:

Yeah, you have to be careful with statistics like this.

In a town with 95 vaccinated people and 5 unvaccinated people, if there are 25 cases of COVID, all five of the unvaccinated people and 20 of the 95 unvaccinated people, you could say "80% of our cases are vaccinated people!" and be telling the truth.

 

I was just thinking this, this morning. 

If you have 100 people, and half are vaccinated and half are un-vaccinated. If the effectiveness of the vaccine is zero, then the distribution of people who got COVID should be 50/50, excluding herd immunity. It could shift, coincidentally, more so to one side or the other. I was just thinking in simple terms. There is no something inherently different between the people who get vaccinated and those who do not get vaccinated that would make them naturally immune to COVID. 

If 70 out of 100 are vaccinated, and if the vaccine works 50% of the time. In an ideal case, 35 of the 70 would get COVID who were vaccinated and 30 of non-vaccinated all gets COVID. 

Extrapolate that out 350 million people....

You could have 122.5 million breakthrough cases, and 105 million Non-vaccinated cases. 

 

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6 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I was just thinking this, this morning. 

If you have 100 people, and half are vaccinated and half are un-vaccinated. If the effectiveness of the vaccine is zero, then the distribution of people who got COVID should be 50/50, excluding herd immunity. It could shift, coincidentally, more so to one side or the other. I was just thinking in simple terms. There is no something inherently different between the people who get vaccinated and those who do not get vaccinated that would make them naturally immune to COVID. 

If 70 out of 100 are vaccinated, and if the vaccine works 50% of the time. In an ideal case, 35 of the 70 would get COVID who were vaccinated and 30 of non-vaccinated all gets COVID. 

Extrapolate that out 350 million people....

You could have 122.5 million breakthrough cases, and 105 million Non-vaccinated cases. 

 

Right, but what I was thinking is if you have a town with 1000 people. 700 are vaccinated and 300 are unvaccinated. You have 100 cases, and 85 of them are unvaxxed and 15 are vaxxed, that would suggest 85/300 and 15/700, which is 28% of the unvaxxed and 2% of the vaxxed, which works out to about 92% effective (which is about right). But there is a new strain that you're not really testing for, but are a little concerned about. So you send the 15 vaxxed cases to be tested for the new variant and 5 of them are that new variant. You also send 10 of the unvaxxed samples for testing because you want to make sure, but those cases aren't particularly interesting and you don't have unlimited resources. Of those 10, 3 come back with the new variant. You can now "accurately" state that the majority of new variant cases are coming from vaxxed people. In reality if you sent those 85 cases for the full screen, you might find that 25 of them are the new variant, which would mean that the vax is similarly effective as for the original case and therefore still around 90-95% effective, while still seeing the "majority" of new variant cases being among the vaxxed. My guess is this is what is happening here. 

Of course, based on what we know, those numbers could be 8 of the new variant for the vaxxed population and 2 for the unvaxxed and omicron could be dodging the vaccine. There just isn't really any useful information in the statement "the majority of cases are in vaccinated people". It's a slightly worrying sounding statement, but it's hardly surprising that the media would make such a statement given their goals (clicks).

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21 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I was just thinking this, this morning. 

If you have 100 people, and half are vaccinated and half are un-vaccinated. If the effectiveness of the vaccine is zero, then the distribution of people who got COVID should be 50/50, excluding herd immunity. It could shift, coincidentally, more so to one side or the other. I was just thinking in simple terms. There is no something inherently different between the people who get vaccinated and those who do not get vaccinated that would make them naturally immune to COVID. 

If 70 out of 100 are vaccinated, and if the vaccine works 50% of the time. In an ideal case, 35 of the 70 would get COVID who were vaccinated and 30 of non-vaccinated all gets COVID. 

Extrapolate that out 350 million people....

You could have 122.5 million breakthrough cases, and 105 million Non-vaccinated cases. 

 

10percent.jpg.1310c3d3c640ffa848f778bf3b0120ae.jpg

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6 hours ago, ChetlovesMer said:

10percent.jpg.1310c3d3c640ffa848f778bf3b0120ae.jpg

I like the meme, as statistics could never work out exactly as some might mathematically figure.

On a totally different note, I haven't necessarily read through the entire thread, but has there been much talk on the origin of this virus? Or are there any conspiracy theorists in here?

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On 12/11/2021 at 9:27 PM, Zippo said:

8. I'm pretty sure I already had Covid

9. Somebody I know had Covid and I didn't catch it from them so I must have natural immunity.

10 - I got good immunity from my mother.

And yes, I actually heard a person say that is why he was not concerned about COVID and did not feel he needed the vaccine.  Just a quick fact, he is 76 and doubt his mother had any antibodies for  COVID-19 when he was born.

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On 12/12/2021 at 5:19 PM, sjduffers said:

Eventually, the "COVID is just a flu" folks will be right, after maybe 10+ millions people will have died, some of them included. Until the next thing...

Thing is, I do not want to get the flu either, so for me, I'll get vaccines.

For the record, I have had the initial 2 COVID-19 Vaccine Shots, a COVID-19 Booster, a Flu Shot and will be getting the first of two Shingles vaccine shots at my next doctor visit.   So yes, I support getting vaccinated.

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istock2-1200x630.jpg

Breakthrough COVID-19 cases in vaccinated people may be less likely to spread infection because virus is shed for a shorter period of time as opposed to infections in unvaccinated people.
nejmc2102507_f1.jpeg

Correspondence from The New England Journal of Medicine — Viral Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Persons

 

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20 hours ago, StuM said:

Thing is, I do not want to get the flu either, so for me, I'll get vaccines.

For the record, I have had the initial 2 COVID-19 Vaccine Shots, a COVID-19 Booster, a Flu Shot and will be getting the first of two Shingles vaccine shots at my next doctor visit.   So yes, I support getting vaccinated.

Oh, I am with you! I've got all of those already, including the flu shot and the 2 shingles shots. :beer:

My comment was more in the line of: while they were quite wrong initially, as the mortality rate proves (800,000 dead out of 50 million cases in the US, roughly 1.6%), eventually, this pandemic will become endemic and similar to another flu.

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2 hours ago, sjduffers said:

Oh, I am with you! I've got all of those already, including the flu shot and the 2 shingles shots. :beer:

My comment was more in the line of: while they were quite wrong initially, as the mortality rate proves (800,000 dead out of 50 million cases in the US, roughly 1.6%), eventually, this pandemic will become endemic and similar to another flu.

Did you have any reaction to the Shingles shots? Those are next for me.

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2 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

Did you have any reaction to the Shingles shots? Those are next for me.

Other than the usual slight soreness at the injection site (although I may be confusing this with other vaccinations: they are hard to keep track of!), no, nothing. It was Shingrix, FYI. YMMV.

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1 hour ago, sjduffers said:

Other than the usual slight soreness at the injection site (although I may be confusing this with other vaccinations: they are hard to keep track of!), no, nothing. It was Shingrix, FYI. YMMV.

Thanks!

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af67be2875eb9a22b6aca34b58f2f5f8bb3b1694

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/data/cases-and-deaths-by-vaccination-status-11082021.pdf

CEHK5RR47VB4XMV7NFYJS6BTNY.jpg

Countries involved in the study included Greece, Germany, Korea, Italy, the U.K., Sweden and Hong Kong, among others.

@Braivo, have you reconsidered the use of masks? They're not that much to ask of people and they're effective (even when worn poorly/improperly) at helping slow the spread.

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